The ongoing India-China border dispute at Galwan Valley has impacted the geopolitics of the Indian subcontinent. Even with the Indian and Chinese troops’ with some sort of disengagement in Ladakh, the entire subcontinent is still like a hot iron, anything and everything could happen. In such a situation, the role of neighbouring countries have played a crucial role. In this case, attention is on Bhutan who is between both India and China. Historically, Bhutan has remained allies with India but does the recent conflict have the potential to change its position? How is India working to keep its one of the oldest allies?
India Bhutan Relations
The diplomatic ties between India and Bhutan goes back to the 1949 Treaty of Friendship. The treaty’s Article 2 stated that, “The Government of India undertakes to exercise no interference in the internal administration of Bhutan. On its part the Government of Bhutan agrees to be guided by the advice of the Government of India in regard to its external relations.”
Bhutan has been a cross cutter when it comes to India’s relation to China. Its geopolitical location is landlocked in the subcontinent. Bhutan shares its border with Tibet (governed as an autonomous region of China.) in the north, Indian states of Sikkim in the west, and the Indian states of Assam, West Bengal and Arunachal Pradesh in the south and east. It shares a border with both China and India. Therefore, this country is packed between these two big countries in the Indian subcontinent. Though Bhutan supported India in the Sino-Indian war of 1962, it started doubting India’s capability to protect Bhutan from the possible repercussions from China for taking India’s side. In 2007, the 1949 treaty was amended. The amended Article 2 states, India and Bhutan “shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither Government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other.” Therefore, there is no obligation by Bhutan from taking guidance from India over its external affairs.
Bhutan was the first foreign state visit by the Indian Prime Minister Narendera Modi after his election in 2014. The neighbourhood first initiative which turned the focus of the Indian foreign relations towards forming relations with its neighbouring countries was set off with the Bhutan visit.
China Bhutan Relations
Historically the relations between China and Bhutan are tense. Sharing a 470 kilometers long border with each other, there has been occasional territorial disputes between both countries. Since the 1980s, through talks on border issues, both countries have put effort into reducing border tensions. Bhutan and China have held 24 rounds of talks to settle their border issue until 2016. According to discussions in the Bhutanese parliament and other public records of these meetings, the discussions have only centred on disputes in the western and central sections of the boundary.
The first claim of Bhutan by China was declared by Mao in 1939, after which in July 1959, along with the occupation of Tibet, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army occupied several Bhutanese enclaves in western Tibet. In 1961, China published a map in which China claimed territories in Bhutan, Nepal and the Indian state of Sikkim as part of its territory.
India represented Bhutanese concerns with China until 1970s. With the UN membership in 1971, Bhutan began to be more independent in its external affairs. In fact, China and Bhutan signed a bilateral agreement to maintain peace on the border in 1998. China affirmed its respect for Bhutan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This agreement was violated in 2008 when China built roads on Bhutanese territories.
Bhutan had adopted the balancing act when it comes to India-China matters. Even during the 2017 Dokhlam crisis, Bhutan was careful in its approach so that they don’t upset China otherwise it could complicate Bhutan’s own border resolution matters with China.
Bhutan moving away from India?
While the 1949 treaty is based on trust and friendship between both countries whose soul is located at the principle of non interference, India started taking its support for granted over the years. Therefore, Bhutan has been drifting from India towards China. On the international front, Bhutan started siding with China. On Cambodia’s Khmer Rouge issue at the NAM’s Havana summit in 1979, Bhutan sided with China.
It is not unknown that China has been pushing to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan. In the Shaanxi 2014 talks between Bhutan and China, China proposed a joint field survey of the disputed areas. After that, India jeopardized the results of that talk by soon removing the fuel subsidies for Bhutan, leading to an increase in LPG. This then led to loss of election for Jigme Thinley government who assured China that Bhutan wished a border settlement.
Bhutan also didn’t follow India’s stance on the status of landlocked nations at the UN and pulled out of the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal Motor Vehicle Agreement for the regulation of passenger, personal and cargo vehicular traffic signed under SAARC in June 2015.
Hydropower is central to Bhutan’s GDP. Bhutan has been unhappy with India’s terms for financing its hydropower projects. There is still looming dominance from India when it comes to its own external affairs. Hence, with these disatisfaction from India and anticipating backlash from China for siding with India on the current border conflict, Bhutan is delicately drifting from India. On other hand, China is also in process to initiate official diplomatic relations with Bhutan. Bhutan is also India’s only neighbour who has not yet joined China’s BRI project.
How is India Revamping its Relations with Bhutan now?
According to the TOI report, India is likely to approve Bhutan’s request for a new land custom station and also considering opening another integrated check post (ICP). The India-Bhutan Agreement on Trade, Commerce and Transit, 2016 already allows for free trade and commerce between India and Bhutan. This agreement provides for about 21 entry or exit trade points between India and landlocked Bhutan.
With the recent Chinese claim over Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary, which is located towards Bhutan’s east and close to the border with Arunachal Pradesh, India realises its interest to keep Bhutan from going to the other side. It should be also noted that in the 24 talks between China and Bhutan, there were no records of public discussions over Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary. The record of Bhutan’s views on this territory is- “Bhutan totally rejects the claim made by the Council Member of China. Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary is an integral and sovereign territory of Bhutan and at no point during the boundary discussions between Bhutan and China has it featured as a disputed area.”
India’s efforts also arise from China’s pressure for a deal with Bhutan to settle the China-Bhutan border dispute. This is why India has expedited its efforts to build the railway connectivity with Bhutan to increase connectivity and hence, promoting trade. India had also recently approved Bhutan’s request to open Ahllay, Pasakha, the additional trade router under the Jaigaon LCS temporarily in the pandemic. The annual trade between India and Bhutan is worth Rs 6000 crore at the Jaigaon-Phuentsholing border.
Bhutan is India’s closest neighbour at this point when India is being isolated by everyone. India is amping up its effort to keep its ally close, but the coming days will reveal the direction in *which the geopolitics of this region will shape.
