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An Insight into Issues Creating Tension in Nigeria

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As a successful Igbo business entrepreneur residing in Swaziland, the southern tip of Africa, Kenneth Onyekachi Ihemekwele has a clear logical mind, practical approach to solving problems and a drive to see things through to full-fledged completion. With years of experience in managing and leading teams across multiple sectors with a genuine interest in continental business and contributing to success in organizations, have helped him in many aspects of life.

Today, he is one of the founding partners of Imo State Indigenes Association, a pan Igbo socio-cultural organization, the Executive Secretary of the Association of Nigerian community, the General Secretary of the Indigenous Peoples of Biafra aka IPOB in Swaziland.  In this interview discussion with Kester Kenn Klomegah from Modern Diplomacy, Onyekachi Ihemekwele expresses his objective views about the current political situation in his native Federal Republic of Nigeria, pertinent problems and unprecedented challenges that are still worrying and, most importantly, the future ahead.

Here are the interview excerpts:

Let us begin to talk about the Igbo dominated Eastern Nigeria. Often times, experts have spoken about political pluralism, ethnicity and federal governance, how inter-connected are these issues?

Igbos people originally from southeastern Nigeria. The Igbos are now widely spread inside the country, while some have moved abroad. Before colonization, the Igbos were very united, lived in autonomous local communities. By the mid-20th century, however, a sense of ethnic identity was strongly developed and the Igbo of the eastern region of Nigeria tried to secede from Nigeria in 1967 as the independent nation of Biafra. By the turn of the 21st century, the population of Igbos about 40 million by then, which was higher than the population of many European countries.

The Igbos have strong passion for trade and commercial activities. However, their trade and commercial influence extends to the whole of African continent. By nature, they are adventurous, love education and highly enterprising.

Most Igbos traditionally have been subsistence farmers. Land is owned communally by kinship group, and is made available to individuals for farming and building. Their principal exports are palm oil and palm kernels. Trading local crafts are also important in the Igbo economy and a high literacy rate has helped many Igbos become civil servants and business entrepreneurs. Notably, Igbo women engage in trade and also very influential in politics.

Therefore, when talking about political pluralism, it is important to note that the present government does not recognize such things as political pluralism in Nigeria. Instead, what is seen today is plain bigotry and nothing more. Ethnicity and federal governance are simply interpreted as one ethic group. Currently, Islam has spread to the Christian dominated Eastern and Southern regions of Nigeria. Right after the Nigeria – Biafra civil war and until now, the Fulani people have dominated the military and politics in Nigeria, all is done for and by the Fulani for Fulani ethnic group.

In your view, it means marginalizing the Igbos in federal political system in Nigeria?

In my view, it simply means marginalizing the blessed and gifted people in the sphere of politics in Nigeria. It further limits them from showcasing their God-given talents in the federal political system. The lgbos fought Nigerian independence starting from the efforts of late Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe and Mbonu Ojike, along with Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the western region, leading the movement of the Eastern and Western region, what was the called the southern protectorate. By 1958, the Eastern region were ready for independence but the northern protectorate were not ready until 1960.

The negotiation to form a federal state by the three regions made for regional autonomy with a weak center. Each region controlled its resources, police and had their diplomatic consulates in Britain. After independence following the military take-overs, the negotiated Constitution has largely remained unimplemented document.

The Eastern region of Nigeria and its people have remained marginalized from developmental programs. Subjected to hardships with all their ports and airports closed to international flights and international maritime. Their children given different cut off points for admission to institutions of higher learning though having the highest literacy level in Nigeria. The armed forces command portfolio, to be shared among the three regions, has become exclusive reserves for the northern region and so is the federal ministries and parastatals.

Currently, there have been armed attacks, violence and destruction of property over decades. There have been a periodic killing of lgbos in the country so-called Nigeria. Mention must be made of over 30,000 people of Eastern region, massacred in Nigeria in 1966. The then Governor of Eastern region, Chukwemeka Odumegwu Ojukwe, recalled all Easterners back home to the East, as their safety could no longer be guaranteed in other parts of Nigeria. This led to the declaration of the Republic of Biafra.

In a desperate bid to keep Nigeria as a nation of the Federal Government led by Gen. Yakubu Gowon unleashed a three-year brutal civil war on the people of Eastern region of Nigeria. Over three million Biafrans were killed. Hunger was used as a weapon of war as the Federal Government of Nigeria blocked all ports in the east. Fifty years after the war, seaports in the east have remained blocked to international maritime.

How do you estimate the real impact of current system of governance on the development in Eastern States of Nigeria?

Honestly speaking, I weep each time I remember the devastation and the underdeveloped Eastern part of Nigeria as a result of negligence from the Federal Government following the end of the Nigerian-Biafra civil war, the military regimes introduced series of decrees that ushered in policies that did not accommodate the development and political interests of the lgbo people.

The punitive economic disadvantages appeared to have persisted years after the civil war, as we speak now almost all the roads in eastern part of Nigeria are bad, out of order and in pathetic conditions. External borrowing is discriminately used to finance development projects in other parts of Nigeria, except the Eastern region where the vast majority of natural resources such as the oil and gas reserves.

The laws are now being made targeting successful Igbo businessmen. The lgbos are people with high aspirations and flair for decency, therefore need to shape their destiny in accordance with their natural ability and capacity. Mostly, armed Fulani men from northern Nigeria, wielding AK-47s and protected with the help of a few unpatriotic elements, have destroyed farmlands.

Do you also think development disparity is a factor creating tension and instability in the country?

Nigeria is one of Africa’s most diverse and deeply divided States in the world today. The decision to merge northern and southern Nigeria, largely for administrative purposes, created a single political entity from the two regions with limited common history, religious and cultural ties, the North is predominantly Moslem and the South predominantly Christian. Colonial rule exacerbated these differences, solidifying religious and ethnic identity as salient political distinction and creating conditions for persistent instability. The north-south divide continues and is marked by serious variations in economic development and access to basic social services. This divide has also fuelled competition between ethnic groups.

The designation of the Yoruba, lgbo and Hausa/Fulani as dominant ethnicities within their respective regions has generated tensions with minority ethnic groups. The strong association of communities with particular territory has also created conflict between indigenes claiming nativity within a given area. Worse is, other Nigerians viewed as internal migrants, are denied rights and granted limited access to land. Competition for control of state institutions, abetted by corruption, and conflict over the spoils of Nigeria’s natural resources, especially oil, have further contributed to these sources of instability. The level of development in the Eastern part of Nigeria can never, be compared with that of the West and North. The evidence is very glaring, it can be noticed, smelt and seen.

Let’s begin with what I call injustice done to the people from the Federal Government. The Southeast zone is the only political zone among the six political zones that has only five States, this I see as a strategy to slow their development by giving them the least amount of revenue allocation.

Secondly, the government has deliberately abandoned the seaports within the lgbo axis, completely ignored Port Harcourt, the second largest port after Lagos.  The Government knows fully well that the lgbos are mainly businessmen and will benefit a lot if the port, situated at Rivers state, that’s the Calabar and Warri cities.

At least, the previous administration of President Goodluck Jonathan completed the facilities at Enugu (now Akanu Ibiam International Airport) in 2013, which enabled the first international flight led by Prince Arthur Eze, who on arrival said with excitement… “I don’t need to go to Lagos or Abuja to catch direct flight again, I can now go from my house to any place of my choice,” but what happened after that?

The Federal Government has not invested any money in upgrading the facilities of that airport, now t in a pitiable condition, very bumpy runner-away without lights, no water supplies, the cooling systems are not working, rather the Federal Government shut down the airport for some so-called security reasons. Meanwhile, Boko Haram is ravaging the Northern region on daily basis, kidnapping, maiming and destroying churches, mosques and communities.

Let me remind that the Southeast region has been the most peaceful region in Nigeria since the civil war that ended in 1970. The roads in the Southeast are nothing but deathtraps, unlike every other zone in the country, every federal road has been in shambles for ages and the government has not deemed it fit to do something about it. Do we talk about the electricity distribution situation, which we can hardly say we are part of? Unlike the North and the West, development in the East can never be compared to that of the North and West. It can be said that the Igbos have been subjected to a form of slavery via the feudal mentality of the Northern Fulanis.

In pursuit of broad based political participation, peace and integration, would the Igbos consider a change to the current constitution?

Considering what our fathers went through during the war, nobody prays for it to happen again. In as much as we want peace, the current constitution needs to be addressed properly, because that constitution was drafted without due consultations with the people of Nigeria. It is a one-sided constitution for the selfishness of certain group of people who call themselves the ruling class, or better still, the northern politicians, therefore there is a heavy call for restructuring of the country into autonomous regions.

Many fighters and militia trained abroad are transported from northern Nigeria to eastern region to occupy farmlands and the federal machinery is put in place to acquire waterways. We cannot fold hands and watch people extinguished. A situation where one ethnic group is allowed to carry automatic weapons and move around in the area while people are policed by soldiers and money extorted on the roads by armed police and military in a subtle declaration of enslavement. We are a free people and have rights to shape our destiny. Our technological achievements are rubbished and inventions relegated to the background.

After the civil war, the technological breakthrough made by the Biafran scientists were destroyed by the Nigeria’s leadership. Our scientists designed the first locally made refineries used to refine crude oil into petroleum products, manufactured  and built radio stations and above all produced the first scud missiles called ‘The flying Ogbunigwe’ converted Minicoin aircrafts to fighter planes and produced mines and bullets. The Nigerian leadership destroyed all these invention and returned the country to foreign dependency on imports for needed items.

The first locally designed car by Ezikel Izuogu was destroyed by federal security operatives masquerading as armed bandits. Finally, the Federal Government of Nigeria has shunned the adoption of Innoson Motors built by an Igboman as a national car in preference to foreign built vehicles just to discourage the growth of indigenous technology, particularly from the Eastern region. It is time for a reflection on how we can protect our people, our agricultural inheritance, our culture and our technology. Faced with this reality, the Constitution needs reviewing for the benefit of all regions, especially the Eastern part of the country.

Do you have any suggestions how to tackle rising ethnic attacks and violence in the country?

An inclusive economic and political system is the only solution. The current public discourse is focused on political restructuring along regional lines. The calls for a political arrangement where major ethnic groups will have control over their geographic areas as well as resources therein might help. The danger is that rather than unify Nigeria it would further divide the country along ethnic and religious lines. What is missing in the conversation is the fact that, the environment for violence and oppression of most Nigerians has come about because of the way in which the country’s economy is structured.

The elitist economy cuts across all ethnic groups, the disenfranchisement, marginalization and exploitation defy ethnic coloration. For restructuring to be meaningful, Nigeria must create an inclusive economic and political system where ethnic and religious affiliation will no longer be a defining factor in economic and political participation. What Nigerians need, and are clamoring for, is a country that will accommodate them regardless of ethnic or religious creed, but cannot be because Islam defines politics for the North and not development or merit.

Nigeria needs political, religious and ethnic tolerance. This will be the key to economic and political success, therefore economic and political inclusivity must account for greater tolerance for it to be effective, including addressing the legacy of past injustices and atrocities, rebuilding broken relationships arising from conflict, establishing and guaranteeing public safety in every facet of life, and the need for legitimate, effective political and administrative institutions. The uniqueness of every post-conflict society goes through these processes. The differences are only in terms of what comes first, what is needed at a particular point in time, who should do it, and how it should be done.

As a successful entrepreneur and leader of a Pan-Igbo association, together with other Igbo diaspora associations, how do you possibly intend to embark on a roadmap for reconciliation and restoration of the status of Nigeria, seen as the power and economic giant in Africa?

Sincerely speaking I don’t know why Nigeria is still being called the giant of Africa when the basic things of life is difficult to acquire, what are these basic things of life, good water, good roads, constant  electric power supply, security of lives and properties, good hospitals, functional polyclinics, food etc. Whether you are poor or rich these basic things of life is your right but you can’t get them in Nigeria. Other African countries are doing pretty well in these areas.

Nigeria has fallen from grace and there is no remedy for Nigeria to regain this past glory. We had earlier called on restructuring, the need for the Nigerian government to agree to wholesome restructure without reservation or grant a referendum for the people in the South East to strive for self-rule or what is referred to as self-determination.

This would be ideal for returning the country to the era when the regions managed their economic and political affairs. But for now, I think it’s too late to start restructuring because from all indications the lgbos have reached their enduring limits. There are some funny games being mapped out by the northern zone to wipe out the lgbos and claim our ancestral land, of which we cannot fold our hands and watch them perfect their plans, so I suggest the only way forward is to disintegrate and each nation runs its own affairs.

MD Africa Editor Kester Kenn Klomegah is an independent researcher and writer on African affairs in the EurAsian region and former Soviet republics. He wrote previously for African Press Agency, African Executive and Inter Press Service. Earlier, he had worked for The Moscow Times, a reputable English newspaper. Klomegah taught part-time at the Moscow Institute of Modern Journalism. He studied international journalism and mass communication, and later spent a year at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. He co-authored a book “AIDS/HIV and Men: Taking Risk or Taking Responsibility” published by the London-based Panos Institute. In 2004 and again in 2009, he won the Golden Word Prize for a series of analytical articles on Russia's economic cooperation with African countries.

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Nigeria- Ghana Trade War: Where to from here

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Several months after a series of bilateral talks between the Nigerian government and authorities in Ghana aimed toward addressing the nearly a decade-long controversy that led to the closure of Nigerian traders’ shops in Ghana, the problems have not been resolved. Hundreds of shops belonging to Nigerian traders are still under lock and key; while most of the owners are stranded. A number of them said they beg to feed, as many of them remain reluctant to return to Nigeria despite a window created by the Nigerian government to facilitate their safe return.

What has happened so far?

President Muhammadu Buhari stunned Nigeria’s neighbors when he unexpectedly closed the country’s land borders to goods trade, saying the time had come to crush contraband trade. The land borders with neighboring Benin, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger were closed to goods in August 2019, with partial openings and closings for people prompted by the coronavirus pandemic throughout 2020.

The center of the lingering controversy was a $1 million levy imposed on Nigerian traders and other foreign investors to pay Ghana Investment Promotion Centre (GIPC) before the shops would be opened. The conditions set by the Ghanaian authorities had triggered a debate in Nigeria and within the African sub-region, which many considered as a breach of ECOWAS’ trade protocols.

However, on 19 June 2020, armed men entered the compound of the Nigeria High Commission in Ghana, and destroyed buildings under construction. Nigeria’s foreign minister Geoffrey Onyeama described the vandalism as “outrageous and criminal” and urged the Ghanaian authorities to make sure that they protect Nigerian diplomatic buildings. Nigerian residents in Ghana held a demonstration calling for Nigerian government to take action. Although a piece posted on the Nigerian High Commission website in Ghana places responsibility on a businessperson who had previously claimed he owned the land where the building was being built, Nigerians living in Ghana still took to the streets to protest for their protection. The Ghanaian foreign ministry also promised that security had been “beefed up”.

Flashback on bilateral talks

The Nigerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Geoffrey Onyeama, had last year summoned Ghana’s Chargé d’Affaires to Nigeria, Ms. Iva Denoo, with whom he discussed the closure of the Nigerian-owned shops in Accra with a view to addressing the problem. Onyeama described the action taken by the Ghanaian authorities as politically motivated. However, his Ghanaian counterpart, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, countered his allegation, insisting that the crackdown was on illegal foreign retail businesses in Ghana.

Botchwey, described in a tweet by Onyeama, tagging Ghana’s policy on retail business as a politically motivated move as ‘most unfortunate. She said the Ghanaian government did not target any particular nationality in the exercise. “Countries sometimes take tough decisions in order to enforce their laws, just as Nigeria took a decision to shut its borders to stop smuggling, despite its impact on ECOWAS member countries,” she had said.

Is Ghana innocent?

While it’s easier to quickly point a finger at Nigeria as the aggressor, given it’s the bigger country who opted to shut its borders, therefore creating a ripple effect in the smaller economies, Ghana also has laws that clash with ECOWAS protocol, which ensures the free movement of the community’s citizens, as well as free and fair trade. The 2013 Ghana Investment Promotion Centre Act (GIPC) is one such Act. It prioritizes the interests of Ghanaian traders and business owners by designating certain only its citizens, whereby foreigners wanting to set up shop in Ghana must have a minimum equity capital of $10,000, run enterprises. That alone limits the number of foreigners – particularly from the poorer surrounding West African countries – who can successfully work in Ghana.

Where to from here

While tariffs can result in individual ‘winners’, a full trade war, protectionism, and a reversal of decades of globalization would damage economies across the board, hitting emerging markets particularly hard. COVID-19 has arguably pushed many countries towards concentrating on themselves, as many economies have been negatively affected in an exceedingly shocking manner. Although few expect to see the kinds of tensions witnessed in the 1980s when Nigeria expelled two million undocumented West African migrants, half of whom were from Ghana.

Key takeaways

  • Nigeria border closure weakened trade across West Africa
  • A full trade war and globalization reversal will benefit nobody
  • Nigerian traders have suffered the most; Ghanaians also faces pain
  • Traders have seen big losses.
  • Demolition of Nigerian High Commission building in Accra.

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H.E. President John Mahama Appointed As AU High Representative for Somalia

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The Chairperson of the Commission, H.E. Moussa Faki Mahamat, has announced the appointment of H.E John Dramani Mahama, former President of the Republic of Ghana, as his High Representative to Somalia.

As the High Representative for Somalia’s political track, President Mahama will work with the Somali stakeholders, to reach a mutually acceptable compromise towards an all-encompassing resolution for the holding of Somali elections in the shortest possible time.

In fulfilling his mandate, the High Representative will be supported by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), to ensure that the mediation efforts and the peace support operation work together seamlessly.

The Chairperson of the Commission calls on the Somali stakeholders to negotiate in good faith, and to put the interests of Somalia and the well-being of the Somali people above all else in the search for an inclusive settlement to the electoral crisis.

This should usher in a democratically elected government with the legitimacy and mandate to resolve the remaining outstanding political and constitutional issues that are posing a threat to the stability of the country and the region as a whole.

The Chairperson of the Commission also encourages all the Somali stakeholders and the international community to extend every support to the High Representative, who will arrive the country in the coming days.

Ambassador Abukar Arman, a former Somalia special envoy to the United States and a foreign policy analyst says there have previously been interventions from neighbors have not brought Somalia the promised peace.

It is clear that no Somali can pursue a political career in his own country without first getting Ethiopia’s blessings. Already, Ethiopia has installed a number of its staunch cohorts in the current government and (along with Kenya) has been handpicking virtually all of the new regional governors, mayors and so forth.

In October 2010, the African Union appointed Jerry John Rawlings as the AU High Representative for Somalia to “mobilize the continent and the rest of the international community to fully assume its responsibilities and contribute more actively to the quest for peace, security and reconciliation in Somalia.”

That however, Ambassador Arman says the former Ghana president and AU Special Representative for Somalia is now assuming his new post with significant diplomatic capital, mainly resulting from the credible work of his fellow countryman, former president, and Special Envoy to Somalia, Jerry John Rawlings.

“On the other hand, he would be carrying the hefty political burden that comes with the so-called African Solutions for African Problems and its cash-gulping record. The concept is taken hostage by African sloganeers and foreign elements eager to advance zero-sum interests,” he wrote me in an emailed message.

Make no mistake, Somalia is held in a nasty headlock by a neighbourhood tag-team unmistakably motivated by zero-sum objective. It is their so-called African solution (not so much of the extremist group al-Shabaab) that is setting the Horn on fire.

According to AFP news report, Mogadishu had been on edge since February, when President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s term ended before elections were held, and protesters took to the streets against his rule. But a resolution in April to extend his mandate by two years split the country’s fragile security forces along all-important clan lines.

Soldiers loyal to influential opposition leaders began pouring into the capital. The fighting drove tens of thousands of civilians from their homes and divided the city, with government forces losing some key neighborhoods to opposition units.

Under pressure to ease the tension, Mohamed abandoned his mandate extension and instructed his prime minister to arrange fresh elections and bring together rivals for talks. Indirect elections were supposed to have been held by February under a deal reached between the government and Somalia’s five regional states the previous September.

But that agreement collapsed as the president and the leaders of two states, Puntland and Jubaland, squabbled over the terms. Months of UN-backed talks failed to broker consensus between the feuding sides.

In early May, Mohamed re-launched talks with his opponents over the holding of fresh elections, and agreed to return to the terms of the September accord.

Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has invited the regional leaders to a round of negotiations on May 20 in the hope of resolving the protracted feud and charting a path to a vote. In the meanwhile, the international community has threatened sanctions if elections are not held soon.

Somalia remains the epicenter of global geopolitical and geo-economic competition. Some of the major ones are in a cut-throat competition that further complicates the Somalia conundrum. With its longest coastline, bordering Ethiopia to the west, Kenya to the southwest and the Gulf of Eden, Somalia has attracted many foreign countries to the region in East Africa.

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Peacebuilding in Northern Mozambique’s Insurgency: Ways Forward

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Terrorism

Abstract: Cabo Delgado, once heartland of the Mozambican national liberation struggle, is turning into an epicenter of conflict and instability, which threatens neighboring countries and regional stability. Armed conflict with Jihadist extremists is exacerbated by privatized security forces and a lack of tangible regional solidarity and security coordination.

Large offshore gas deposits act as an additional driver of conflict while peacebuilding initiatives are still at the very beginning. Extremists aligned with ISIS are emplacing an ecosystem for transnational illegal activity- just as the major gas project development can bring real peace dividends to the impoverished province. In view of escalating violence, it is time for the international response to shift gears and invest in peacebuilding besides counter-insurgency assistance and security sector reforms, including for regulating the activity of private military and security companies. In a new paradigm of partnership with the government, joined-up cooperation, including withfuture gas customers across the Indian Ocean could buttress the response to the escalating violence.

Conflict Trajectory- Armed violence has steadily escalated in Cabo Delgado province of northern Mozambique since 2017. In the last two years, the Jihadist insurgency of  “Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama” (ASWJ) has gained momentum beyond rural areas. In August 2020, insurgents took control of Mocimboa da Praia town on the northern coast. The complex attack on 25 March against the densely populated city of Palma targeted a staging area for the large offshore gas development project[1]. As a result, the leading energy firm involved in the gas project, Total Company of France, stopped operations and withdrew its personnel from the area. Experts estimate that currently some 60% of sub-districts in the province are no longer under effective government control. The humanitarian fallout from the fighting is catastrophic:700,000 persons are displaced and around a quarter of the provincial population. The fighting has caused2,800 casualties so far, reportedly more than half of them civilians, according to ACLED humanitarian statistics.

Government Response-The government struggled to keep the insurgency at bay after initial denial of the problem. In 2020, the government took steps to reorganize its security posture in Cabo Delgado and created a joint task force against the terrorists. Mozambique and Tanzania concluded an agreement to form a joint defense and security committee in mid-January 2021 for the purpose of intelligence sharing and coordination.

There has also been a growing readiness to accept foreign military advisers and trainers, while local militia groups were used in parallel. The US and former colonial power Portugal have recently agreed to provide trainers for Mozambican forces. The EU has stepped up planning for a possible EU Military Mission to assist the government, after the SADC neighboring states fielded a recent assessment.

However, Mozambique has been adamant against foreign troop deployments, in keeping with its non-aligned tradition and to safeguard national sovereignty. The SADC regional block started to deliberate about a joint security response in late 2020. However, the recent SADC troika summit meeting on 8-9 April devoted to regional security challenges remained inconclusive.

Reforms in Mozambique’s security sector have been incomplete since the end of the civil war 1977-1992, which has debilitated the army in front line roles against violent extremists. Anti-terror legislation was adopted only in 2018 when the insurgency already began to make itself strongly felt. Security governance is further complicated by Mozambique’s reliance on private military and security firms (PMCs/ PSCs), including from Russia and South Africa (Wagner Group, Dyck Advisory Group/DAG) which failed to rout the Jihadists. In northern Mozambique, these para-military actions have drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations such as Amnesty International. There is testimony accusing security company employees of indiscriminate violence.

Significance of Transnational Extremist Threat- Already in July 2019, the ASWJ insurgents pledged allegiance to the ISIS branch in Central Africa ISCAP which operates in Congo DRC. Their fighting strength is believed to be around 2,000 in Cabo Delgado province. ASWJ publicly committed to applying Sharia Law as agents of a “government of God”, like ISIS in the Middle East and the Al Shabab militia in Somalia. ASWJ has also accused the ruling FRELIMO Party in Mozambique of corruption. In March 2021, the U.S. imposed sanctions against leaders of ISIS-ISCAP and counterparts in ASWJ as terrorists.

Counter-terrorist experts believe that ASWJ which is also locally known as ‘Al Shabab’ (‘Ansar al-Sunna’ or simply as ‘mashababos’)has mostly homegrown origins. However, there are indications that at least some of the leading ASWJ cadres are in fact from Tanzania. Polarization between Mwani and Makonde ethnic groups in provincial sub-districts of Mozambique also plays a role in the violence.

There are growing concerns that the insurgency could spill over into neighboring provinces of Mozambique, especially Nampula and Niassa. Experts have pointed out that there is a risk of expanded territorial control and  illicit revenue streams (from timber, precious stones, and heroin smuggling). This might give the insurgents access to more sophisticated arms. The illegal gold mining business is supposedly bankrolling the insurgency against government control measures.

Spillover into Tanzania across the shared border has already occurred. Security analysts are pointing to an expansion trend of ISIS and Jihadist violence in Africa as their new frontier. Cabo Delgado could replicate the violence in the Sahel region and add a trans-continental dimension to extremism by expanding to the Indian Ocean seaboard. In this view, ASWJ- ISCAP could pose a critical threat to the more developed economies in neighboring South Africa and Tanzania as well as for international shipping and trade.

Hydrocarbon Pull Factor in Mozambique’s Insurgency-Cabo Delgado province is a majority Muslim area in Mozambique with a history of government neglect and under-development. Youth unemployment is staggeringly high as well as the levels of illiteracy among youth. The province has also emerged as a national hotspot for COVID-19 infections, due to IDP movements and the influx of persons from across the border in Tanzania where virus controls have been lax.

By contrast, the 20bn USD offshore LNG gas project in the province represents  the largest private investment in Africa’s energy sector. Totalenergy firm of Franceaims to produce 13 bn tons of LNG gas annually from 2024. Despite the recent setback, Total has stated that the project remains on track.

The lucrative hydrocarbons development and expected funds flows act as an additional driver of extremist violence, competing with the reach of government authorities. Some sub-contractors might end up paying protection money to the Jihadists, although control of gas wells is not realistic for AWSJ.

Configuring Peacebuilding against Violence in Cabo Delgado-  Militarized responses to the insurgency have proven ineffective so far and only made matters worse. Therefore a concerted and multi-dimensional effort is needed to engage in peacebuilding, dialogue and civilian-led security sector reform development with provincial focus. President Filipe Nyusi’s new Agency for Integrated Development of the North (ADIN) is a welcome step towards participatory development planning and giving populations more of a voice in their socio-economic future.

Within the ambit of civilian peacebuilding, there is a need for inclusiveness in Mozambique’s security governance. It is important to ensure control over the private military and security firms in the counter-terrorist campaign. Normative frameworks for private military and security companies in warfare, e.g. the ICoC Voluntary Code of Conduct and the 2008 Montreux Document governing state use of mercenaries, should be localized for the situation in Cabo Delgado. In addition, focused deradicalization and extremist prevention actions specifically targeting youth are required. Specialist counter-terrorist skills training is a critical element in reforming the Mozambican security forces.

Despite generous EU development assistance to the country, the insurgency has so far received little attention in Europe, where Mozambique and Cabo Delgado province are perceived through the lens of humanitarian concerns after successive cyclones, or as an exotic tourist destination. The situation in Cabo Delgado was discussed in the European Parliament in September 2020. Cabo Delgado also featured in a parliamentary hearing in Berlin later that year about current levels of German engagement in conflict-affected areas of Africa. Given the high stakes of the insurgency which is no longer just a side show on the African continent’s conflict map, leading European states might come together to pool their expertise and assist the Government of Mozambique in peacebuilding. A mapping of peace constituencies in Cabo Delgado province is a critical first step, as well as assessing the social media landscape with youth and young women. Comparative insights are available from youth counter- radicalism programs in Tanzania and work with women as peacebuilders by German political foundations in Mozambique, as well as support and expertise from UNDP with Japanese funding commitments for peace support in 2020.

Coordination of these inputs and conflict sensitive implementation alongside the humanitarian relief effort in the Triple Nexus (humanitarian, stabilization and development dimensions) are overdue. Through the established and experienced UN country team, modalities can be found to move from business as usual to shaping the international response in a more focused and impactful way, strengthening local dialogue efforts from Mozambique’s Civil Society, faith leaders and advocacy umbrella groups formed in Cabo Delgado.  

In the medium term, innovative development cooperation centered around the expected gas flows from Mozambique to emerging markets in Asia across the Indian Ocean holds promise for scaling up the development response. It is possible to establish structured ‘reverse trades’ of skills training and technology transfers for learning together in the global energy transition through 2050 for decisively  improving the situation in Cabo Delgado.


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