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Will Trump Remain an Existential Threat for Joe Biden If Loses or Wins

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The US Elections 2020 will take the US  by storm since there is Already uproar against the flawed and aggressive Policies of Actor Turned President  Donald Trump and abysmal pandemic Situation in the US as the death toll reached  140000 baffling  US  President to focus on upcoming election as he has failed miserably to tackle and manage the Pandemic and mitigating collateral damage.

On the Contrary, Joe Biden former Vice President and presidential candidate for Democrats has clean chit to get elected but fear remain that  If  Donald Trump loses, will he accept his defeat or resort to Protests.

Furthermore, the recent racial unrest in the US has paved the way for Joe Biden to get through the Presidential slot with the thumping majority or clean sweep as Trump Administration has ruined country’s Internal as well as External Policy just making friends as Foes and disappointing allies.

The US is currently facing isolation since its claim of being a sole superpower is challenged by China as US-China  Row worsens over the Pandemic and  Recent  China-India face off in Galwan  Valley along the  Line of Actual Control (LAC) proves that China will pursue its expansion Policy as according to china it is ready to fight with the US if War is imposed.

The World order is changing rapidly with the inclusion of New and Old Powers, the American hegemonic role is fading away due to Covid-19  that has torn down the hopes of Donald Trump to be reelected as President of United States.

The Political analysts also fear that Trump may postpone US Presidential Elections on the pretext of Pandemic but it will be a very nasty blow for Biden and Democrats will resist such move.  

The inefficiency and incompetence of Trump Administration have played havoc with the Economy and destroyed the Powerful role of us in World Affairs. Democracy will remain under risk whether Trump loses or wins by doing an upset.

The emerging situation has prompted the political Science Experts to make some serious predictions about the much-debated US Presidential Elections taking place in November this year.

The  Experts and Opinion leaders are of the view that the Presidential Elections may prove a nightmare or nasty because  US President Donald Trump’s stubborn Attitude heralds that he would not accept the Elections results and may brand them as rigged or  Fraudulent through supporters and lobbyists.

There are also some rumours echoing in the US that if  President loses the race for reelection as President of the United States he may not be willing to vacate the white house and may Start enquiry in the Polling results that may extend his Presidency term.

Some experts have rejected such claims as after losing the presidential race, he will not be left with any moral ground to stay at Whitehouse and will accept his defeat but due to his stubborn attitude, various predictions are being associated with the behaviour of Donald Trump.

Morally, he has lost the race since he has miserably failed to fight Pandemic that has killed over 140000 people in the US and infected 300000 Person making the US the most covid-19 affected country in the world.

The Economic crisis and the growing number of unemployment have raised anti-trump sentiment that may benefit Joe Biden. Moreover, the killing of African American Georg Floyd by Police has already engulfed the entire world and the world is out in the streets protesting against Racism and Police brutalities. The Campaigns like black Lives matter may benefit Biden since he has a comprehensive understanding 0f world affairs as he had already served as Vice President of USA.  

Joe Biden has an executive plan to craft Foreign Policy to suit the interests of the United States. He has a deep understanding of Affairs especially Afghanistan, China and may revive the deal with Iran since Iran has found new strategic Partners in the region i.e. China and Russia.  

The Question arises that As Trump exerted immense Pressure on China to get his interests served but Biden may go contrary to his predecessor i.e. Donald Trump since he will revive the relations with World Powers.

Political Circles in the US do believe that Obama may advise Biden on Policy matters since Obama had struck the nuclear deal with Iran and had lifted the toughest economic sanctions against Iran and had ordered Troops withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. He had close links with Allies and strengthened NATO.

But unfortunately, Donald Trump has ruined the whole democratic norms and scrapped  Iran Nuclear deal, stopped funding to WHO and several other strategic blunders which will prove his reason for defeat in November 2020.

There is also political debate that Trump may hamper the transition of power to give the excuse of Pandemic or express dissatisfaction over Postal or mailing Ballot service as per Estimates that this year most of the states may opt for Mailing ballot or postal ballot facility or E-Voting that may provide solid reasons to Trump to raise his reservations against the Poll results.

Some senior analysts of mainstream media are of the view that If Trump loses the Elections; there are chances that he may challenge the Poll Results in the Courts that may delay the transition of power.

The Aggressive temperament of President Donald Trump may prompt him to influence Electoral Staff, Media outlets or challenge the whole electoral Process and may get support from Republicans. He may push his supporters and party workers on violence as happened on his Election Win against Hillary Clinton.

Nobody ever wondered that Trump will win the Presidential Election since he won secret support from Russia. This time too, same external forces may interfere in the matters of US and there could be an upset as Predicted by Joe Biden Himself in Press conference that he fears that Donald Trump may not transfer the Power or may not accept the Election defeat for several reasons.

There is a serious issue that Biden hinted at that the US Army may take over if Trump –Biden Row over Election does not seem to end. The Imposition of Martial Law will destroy democratic norms and autocrats may put the US Constitution in abeyance. This is a serious issue as raised by Opinion leaders.

The Political Science Experts are also of the view the contest will be very tough since some states big or small may prove a watershed for both Presidential Candidates in US Presidential Elections 2020. The 04th November 2020 will be a decisive day to determine who will be the Next President of the United States –Joe Biden or Donald Trump as Upsetting result.                                                                

Finally, it could be summed up that Given the existing circumstances, Donald Trump will always remain the biggest threat to democracy and will encourage racial attacks against African Americans and will maintain tough policies for Muslims, while on the contrary Joe Biden has very relaxed Policies and will take steps to discourage Racism and giving Equal rights to African Americans and Muslims and will maintain a relaxed policy towards his allies and Strengthen NATO.

This year the voters will decide that How American are being isolated due to flawed  Policies o Trump Administration who has failed miserably both internally and Externally, and the Changing World Order is dramatically providing the basis to China, Russia and Turkey to play a leading role since the world has gone Multipolar and many countries have liberated themselves from US’ hegemonic role.                                                                                    

Now the question arises that if Biden wins US Presidential Elections what will be his policy in south Asia especially the deal signed with  Taliban in Afghanistan, strategic Partnership with Pakistan, India and the, more importantly, the diplomatic relations with China that are already in troubled water ever since  Trump started Trade war and blame game over the pandemic. It is too early to predict but the circumstances and the statements of Joe Biden are very positive especially his soft policy towards Muslims and the stand on Kashmir issue to be resolved.  

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Americas

Rejoining the UNHRC will be the State Department’s first diplomatic mistake

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As over the last days US Vice President Harris swore in Linda Thomas-Greenfield as the new US Ambassador to the UN, US Secretary of State Blinken announced in parallel that the US is now seeking election to the UN Human Rights Council, in an attempt to rejoin the UN system. But that’s not the right first move back at the UN that the US should be making. And that’s not what the progressive left had in mind when the real left groups put in office the new Biden Administration.

My perspective comes from having worked in the UN human rights system and as a finalist for UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of speech last year – but also as a progressive left voice.

The days when UN engagement defined Democrats vis-a-vis Republicans are over.

Shunning the UN has always been a Republican hallmark but backing and pouring so much funding into an old style, corrupt bureaucracy that has little to do with “diplomacy” is not what the new, awaken progressive left wants either.

Several weeks ago, I made the estimate that the 10bln dollars which the US government pours into the black hole called the UN equals the Covid relief that 16mln struggling American people could be getting now. The Biden Administration’s State Department diplomats have to remember who put them in office.

Democrat centrist diplomats have more in common with the UN in terms of ways, goals, style and world view than they do with the progressive left. Backing the UN means backing the old, corrupt ways, which the real progressive left voted to break last year.

The decision to announce the US’s goal to rejoin the UN Human Rights Council comes in the same week when President Biden finally announced his real stance on the Black Lives Matter ‘defund the police’ goals. Biden, it turns out, unsurprisingly does not support that. That’s not what the progressive left signed up for, either.

The UN institutional funding inertia by the US government does not define the Democratic Party anymore. That’s not what the left voters want. 

The left’s reasons for not embracing the UN and the UN Human Rights Council have little to do with the usual Republican ‘go it alone’ at the international stage.

Yes to diplomacy and multilateralism. No to the corrupt, faceless UN. “International diplomacy” is no longer the same thing as the UN system.

The wave that rose across American political life last year, with so many young black activists and so many people voting for the first time, signaled a big resounding No to old ways and old institutions, which have little concern for the actual needs of the people.

The new US Ambassador to the UN, Thomas-Greenfield, will have the tough job of reforming the UN, and in my opinion, even defunding the UN.

The days when love for the UN defined Democrats are certainly over. It’s time for the Biden Administration to do what it was elected for, which is to not simply go back to the same old, same old corrupt, faceless bureaucratic institutions swimming in money. This is not what we want. The progressive left voted for change and now that also includes the UN.

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U.S. Climate Policy Could Break the Ice with Russia

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Photo: Fiona Paton/ flickr

“In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity” — Albert Einstein

Within the climate crisis lies strategic opportunity for the United States. Climate change offers the chance to earn back the good will of allies, to prepare American cities for an urgently needed increase in immigration, and to reinvent U.S.-led institutions that have gone stale. Perhaps most of all, foreign policymakers should remain cognizant of how climate action can help the U.S. navigate relations with the other great powers.

As a recent report from the Center for a New American Security details, synergy between China and Russia is more problematic for U.S. interests than the sum of the challenges that each nation poses individually. Similarly, a recent Atlantic Council publication observed that “allowing Russia to drift fully into China’s strategic embrace over the last decade will go down as the single greatest geostrategic error.” Chinese and Russian interests do currently align on defense, economics, and the degradation of the U.S.-designed world order, but the nature of their alignment does not constitute an alliance.

In characterizing the relationship, this distinction is paramount. For as long as China and Russia remain merely convenient partners, rather than ideologically kindred allies, it is possible to keep these neighbors at arm’s length. To this end, the U.S. must reorient its approach to Russia. It is the Russian perception that world politics are rigged to benefit the U.S. at Russia’s expense that has prompted its support for China.

Russia’s national interests are rooted in the desire for respect. With this in mind, Russia could pull back from synergy with China if a better opportunity to advance these interests presented itself. Ultimately, the ability of the U.S. to offer a mutually acceptable alternative will hinge on two related factors: the Arctic and NATO. Critically, the issue of climate change is central to both of these factors.

In the Arctic, rapid warming removes barriers to resource exploitation, shipping activity, and great power competition. This has drawn many non-Arctic states to the region. Yet, even with China inserting itself as a “Near-Arctic State,” Russia has expressed the need for a hierarchy of regional influence in which the interests of Arctic states are prioritized over non-Arctic states. On this, American and Russian interests align.

Russian distrust of the U.S. complicates matters, however. Arctic military assertiveness from Russia is evidence of its sensitivity to the NATO alliance. In response, U.S. military branches have been releasing strategies for Arctic-specific forward defense. Such militarism is not conducive to improving relations, securing sovereign influence, or addressing climate change. 

In order to limit undue Chinese influence in the region and stabilize its relations with Russia by securing a multilateral agreement that formalizes an Arctic hierarchy, the U.S. will need to alter its foreign policy so that Russia perceives it to be a viable partner. The alteration should be sufficient for reducing friction with Russia’s core interests, but not so extreme that liberal values or American security are put in jeopardy. Such transactional considerations should include fashioning a new climate-positive role for the U.S. in NATO. After all, the permanent physical presence of roughly 76,000 U.S. troops on the European continent not only irks Russia, but this posture is also expensive, carbon-intensive, and perhaps not even the most effective approach to conflict deterrence. 

Indeed, research has shown that rapid deployment of new forces is significantly more likely to stymie aggression. This suggests that the U.S. should reduce its troop levels in Europe by at least 75 percent while bolstering rapid deployment readiness. This would allow the U.S. to simultaneously reduce its military’s fuel demand and greenhouse gas emissions, earn the good will necessary for stronger diplomacy with Russia, and still honor its security commitment to NATO in the event of a crisis. Moreover, the U.S. could then reinvest the potential savings into both Arctic sustainability and NATO’s capacity to manage climate insecurity.

Through the establishment of a bounded Arctic order and the greening of American leadership in NATO, the U.S. can dispel Sino-Russian synergy in the region and help maintain balance between the great powers. Specifically, these actions would both politically distance China from Russia and give the Kremlin substantial reason to begin feeling more optimistic about its relations with the West. To be sure, similar measures will be necessary in other regions to fully assure balance. However, the Arctic is a natural place for the U.S. to begin this endeavor. Usefully, the themes of climate mitigation and adaptation provide a blueprint for what countering Sino-Russian synergy elsewhere ought to generally entail.

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Overcoming The Tragedy of Plural Mother Tongue Denial in America

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Sunday morning , February 21, I was in the  Bangladesh High Commission  in Port Louis, Mauritius.Google reminds us”Bangladesh, to the east of India on the Bay of Bengal, is a South Asian country marked by lush greenery and many waterways. Its Padma (Ganges), Meghna and Jamuna rivers create fertile plains, and travel by boat is common. On the southern coast, the Sundarbans, an enormous mangrove forest shared with Eastern India, is home to the royal Bengal tiger.” 

This  justice and peace oriented mighty  South Asian  country of nearly 162,000,000 citizens, is also renowned for  successfully advocating for what is now  the United Nations recognized   annual February 21 Martyrs’ Day & International Mother Language  Day celebrated today in many countries around the world. It is the reason why…Namely ,when last week  my great friend , Her Excellency Rezina Ahmed , the High Commissioner for Bangladesh in Mauritius , requested I be one of the three judges for their youth essay competition for this day’s celebration focused on the meaning of this critically important day in their country and for the world in understanding the imperatives of mother tongue in human identity,dignity, openness, and achievements such as in education access and attainment. I gladly  reorganized my  overly hectic schedule to participate. 

We devalue, belittle, degrade, and dehumanize others and therefore ourselves as human beings when we deny them the human right  to  learn, express, and just daily be in their native ,that is mother tongue.We create and sustain discrimination, havoc ,and discord in societies and communities and institutions within them when we deny, marginalize, and exclude plural mother tongues and just stress and require in such an unGodly way,a hegemonic dominating one. When we create societies which fail to make room for the respectful and empowering expansion of languages spoken in a nation by its citizens and those populations veying for citizenship, we are sowing seeds for troubles easily avoided if government and civil society leaders recognize and welcome language newcomers rather than being xenopphobic , racist, ethnocentric ,and otherwise hostile towards them.This is especially the case when those of different mother tongues from the original one are positively contributing to the human resources, workforces, and cultural needs of  a nation and  when their diverse  speakers are  upright law abiding citizens in their families , communities, and larger society and world.

As an American whose ancestral mother tongues  were stripped away in the brutality of African slavery  and in the genocidal treatment of indigenous peoples, this day then has deep sentimental value to me.We need to recognize this day in an America deeply troubled by  too long devalued, ignored, and ridiculed plural  mother tongue realities coupled with contempoary rapid growth of mother tongue plurality as we become each day statistically Non-White and not just English speaking. 

In doing so we must confess first from colonial day one to now,America has always been a plural mother tongue state with English being the hegemonic language of the dominant.Our tradition of disregarding and devaluing Americans whose first language is other than English has been the historical roots of  political and economic inequalities, massive wastes of human talents, and the epidemic psychological traumas of millions of tens of millions of Americans stripped of their right to be heard and respected in their mother tongues and of those suffering from their dominant English superiority  complexes which eats away at their own humanity as they dehumanize Non-English speakers.

Spainish mother tongues signs are being  become seen  increasingly in American stores and other consumer and employing insitutions as  more a measure of the growing national size and  economic value of Spainish speaking peoples than needed humane and human  respect for Americans whose native tongue is not English.Trump’s easy fueling of anti-Spainish speaking people sentiment and practices, be they immigrants or not; even in native  English speaking Non-White populations such as African Americans and Asian Americans, was due to the iron grip of English only hegemony which continues to persist  in too many American systems, sectors, communities, and institutions, making English as Second language programs in primary through graduate schools marginal  or nonexistent in too many states with no plural mother tongue federal policy designed and well enforced in sight. It has led to disgraceful  public attacks against Spanish  speakers with more implicit  demeaning attacks against others who don’t speak English  especially when they are and more importantly look like they have Non-European  ancestry. Such bigoted English only idelogies , stereotypes, and actions are  unbecoming for any  democratic nation claiming to be a beacon of exceptional global goodwill.Our American tendency to ignore our historical and contemporary plural mother tongue character and to allow it to be a  disruptive and destabilizing political football adds fire to the view of our allies and foes around the world that our long  exceptional bright star global status is sliding downward on a banna peeling.

Thus, as  we move from the nightmare of the four year Trump era even though Trumpism is an anti-plural mother tongue ideology to be around for awhile, let us take advantage of this Biden-Harris glimmer of sunlight to promote the meaning of this day, to hold it high in opposition to the nightmare we are leaving behind as we grapple and become the open dignified America not back but the kind of emerging  open America we must become and remain..from now on.

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