While Secretary Pompeo is pushing for an extension of the arms embargo on Iran, which is due to expire in the fall, Houthis continue facilitating Iran’s military and ideological agenda in the region. Iran denied having yet another ship filled with sophisticated weaponry intercepted during a joint US-Arab Coalition operation near Yemen in June, another piece of evidence pointing to the dangers of Iran’s continuing relationship with the Houthis. And despite dealing with a series of explosions throughout IRGC military bases, and nuclear/power stations, Iran has shown no signs of slowing down in the implementation of this agenda and denied any external interventionism. The blasts are attributed to Israel, and to an opposition group known as “Cheetahs of the Homeland.” The latest such incident took place to the West of Tehran, in the vicinity of additional IRGC bases and power stations.
Most of the P5+1 members are reluctant to follow US lead in renewith the arms embargo. Furthermore, there is evidence that where EUropean companies have turned away from profit due to the concern over losing access to the US financial system, China and Russia have stepped comfortably in, which means that with or without the arms embargo, Iran retains access to the components needed for the production of sophisticated weapons. A new deal inked between Beijing and Tehran reportedly grants China access to Iranian air force bases, while Iran essentially becomes a gas station for the Chinese Communist Party which has been suffering ongoing financial losses and reportedly has not been able to meet its “New Silk Road” /Belt-and-Road commitments.
Enter the HOuthis, who have been reportedly smuggling oil out of Southern Yemen and supplying Hezbullah and IRGC with a resource lifeline to complement access to Iraqi oil and the Chinese lease monopoly over Ahwazi petrochemicals. Yemen’s internationally recognized government has downplayed the attacks on Safter oil pumping stations, but with the fall of oil output in Yemen since the HOuthi coup, access to natural resources has become an important rallying point for the Houthis. In exchange, Houthis are playing an increasingly central role in Iran’s regional hegemony projects as Iraqi militias have attracted increasing US scrutiny and ire, with mass arrests following the liquidation of Qassem Soleimani and several important heads of Iran-backed Shi’a groups starting in January.
While the US and the Arab Coalition have succeeded in intercepting several ships providing weapons to Houthis as evidence of the close relationship, they have not been able to stop the smuggling altogether. And for every number of bomb-laden Houthi boats destroyed by the Arab Coalition, an unknown number of such operations succeeds, at least partially. Then there are rumors of the HOuthis exploiting security vulnerabilities and launching a deadly and destructive attack on a Saudi air force base in June 2020, among a series of missile and drone attacks aimed at Saudi cities, which, according to the Coalition, were intercepted by the Saudi missile defense systems. Those are just some of the most recent examples of Houthi attacks; during the course of the war, according to the Coalition spokesman Turki Al-Maliki, nearly 1700 attacks against civilian sites in Saudi Arabia had been launched by the HOuthis, and an unknown number of similar attacks against civilians in Yemen. In July, another quantity of drones was destroyed by the Coalition forces over Yemen.
These events show the limits of US diplomacy and political action, and in particular, the limits of the strategy exclusively targeting Iran, without taking into the account the subversive and increasingly powerful role of the HOuthis in the region. Of course, in the event of the non-renewal of the embargo, Iran will indeed become an international arms marketplace for the worst of rogue actors, but even now with the restrictions in place, it has evaded full accountability and has managed to sow mayhem and mischief with the help of its proxies and increasingly integrated regional relationships.
It, too, is important to note that much of Iran’s assets lie outside Tehran. Therefore the approah of “cutting off the head of the snake”, with anything short of complete regime change and destruction of the existing Iranian administrative infrastructure and financial architecture, is hardly the panacea for the Iranian assertion of control in the Middle East, without also severing the limbs that carry out its bidding, including, in particular the Houthis.
And that is the argument that was heard in detail by a gathering of international experts during a series of meetings held by the Coalition of Organizations for Peace in Yemen on the sidelines of the Human Rights Council, session 44.
The first seminar focused on the HOuthi role in the shelling of Yemeni and Saudi cities.Seminar of Houthi shelling of cities:
Violation of the armistice and non-compliance with international agreements
Moderator: Dr. Arwa Al-Khattabi, an academic and human rights activist
The first speaker, Engineer Khaled Al-Afif, head of the German-Yemeni Forum for Rights and Freedoms, member of European organizations allied for peace in Yemen, spoke about the Houthi breach of the armistice and the agreements and stated that the Houthi militias relied on the tactic of restoring breath and arranging the papers to pounce on the adversaries and their means were to deceive the tribes and the government and now the international community.and the truce announcement. Each time, the militias break the ceasefire agreements once their ranks are rearranged (this follows a model long adopted by another Iranian proxy, Hamas).
He mentioned that between 2004 and 2010, the Yemeni government fought six wars with the Houthi militias, and all these wars were stopped by ceasefire agreements with the involvement of mediation committees that the Houthis did not adhere to. On the contrary, for them it was a warrior’s rest to arrange their ranks and when the army stopped the war because of the truce the Houthis rallied to crush the tribal sheikhs and the regions that supported the government and opposed their forces. After 2011, the Houthi militia took advantage of the youth revolution, political division, and the army’s division to impose its complete control over the Saada governorate, and the first thing that it worked on was the displacement of the Dammaj sons after several armies and agreements that were not adhered to, and this is the first case of sectarian displacement in Yemen.
The militia expanded its military operations to Imran and held several rounds of talks through mediation committees that ended in neutralizing the tribes and swooping on anyone who opposed the HOuthis; the Houthis did not abide by any agreement or armistice with any party that did not accept their authority, but relied on terrorism and the scorched earth policy after all the armistice and additionally, relied on the bombing the homes of tribal elders. Before announcing the truce in Amran, the Houthis launched an armed attack on the governorate to control it. While the mediation committees led by the UN envoy bin Omar were moving to a cease-fire, the Houthis stormed the capital, Sanaa, and then a truce was established, or what was known as the peace agreement, one that the Houthis did not adhere to. The Houthis entered into a partnership agreement with the Congress Party and former President Ali Saleh, and they did not adhere to any provision of it. Rather, at the end of 2017, they launched armed operations against the party that ended with the killing of former President Saleh and collaborators, and threw thousands of supporters of the party, women and men, in prison.
Khaled Al-Afif further talked about the most prominent agreement that were brokered by the United Nations, which was Stockholm, which ended with the handover to the Houthis of the port of Al-Hadidah, strategically important both for humanitarian aid to the rest of the country and as a smuggling center for the delivery of Iranian weapons and other contraband. The Houthis violated the ceasefire hundreds of times and killed some members of the monitoring committees, including Colonel Muhammad Sharaf al-Sulayhi. In Naham, Al-Jawf, and Marib, more than a truce was held and announced, but the Houthis did not adhere to any truce.
On the contrary, they took advantage of the truces to arrange their ranks, and those areas were neglected, Al-Jawf and the military operations are carried out on a daily basis in Marib. In conclusion, he said: “A few days ago, the Houthis held a truce in Radman Al Bayda, through tribal mediation that the Houthis did not abide by, and ended in storming the Radman area and detonating many homes.” Mr. Khaled talked about bombing and detonating property, raising terror and terrorizing citizens and residents, which is a systematic strategy for the Houthi militia, which started from the first six wars between 2004 and 2009 in Saada against all opposition figures, villages, and regions that rejected these militias, and this Houthi terrorism reached the zenith after their coup against the state in September 21, 2014 and their control grab over the weapons of the Yemeni army and the acquisition of experiences in developing weapons, booby traps and drones through Iranian experts and from the Lebanese Hezbollah, which was stated by Iranian officials and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Since the beginning of its war to control the Yemeni governorates, the Houthi militia has deliberately bombed residential areas in cities and rural areas that refuse to submit to and surrender to the militia, and with every defeat this militia has been subjected to, indiscriminate shelling of residential neighborhoods and hospitals to terrorize people, the resistance and the army to surrender. In Taiz, among the 20 hospitals and health centers, 18 hospitals were suspended due to the bombing of the Houthi militia or the siege they struck on the city of Taiz, and only two hospitals remain operational.
Despite this, the militias bombed the main revolution hospital in Taiz, according to human rights organizations, and the Houthi missiles destroyed the part The largest of the hospital was mass destruction concentrated in the intensive care department. Where the victims of indiscriminate shelling in Taiz between 2015 and 2018, nearly 3,000 civilians, including 630 children and 371 women. Taiz is at the forefront of the number of injured people in Yemen, and the pain of the wounded is compounded by the Houthi siege imposed on the city of Taiz, which exacerbated their tragic situation in an unprecedented way, as the number of wounded reached 16 thousand and 402 civilians, including 1756 children and girls and 249 women.
7070 went missing due to kidnapping and enforced disappearance, and in 2019, approximately 186 citizens were killed, 54 of which were indiscriminate shelling of residential neighborhoods, 18 snipers, 41 as a result of landmines, 3 under torture, and one of extrajudicial executions. The total destruction resulting from indiscriminate shelling was 2,320 buildings, 452 of which were public property, 338 buildings were partially destroyed, and 18 of the 20 hospitals in the city were destroyed due to the constant shelling.
At the level of cities and governorates, entire neighborhoods in Aden Governorate, from Khor Maksar, Tawahi and the northern regions of the governorate were destroyed as a result of the war launched by the Houthi militia in an attempt to occupy Aden and the center of Lahj and Abyan Governorate. Most public property and a large part of private property were destroyed and the effects of the destruction are still prominent to today. It also bombed a water tank in the Al-Duraimi district in Al-Hodeidah, which is one of the hot spots where water is not easily available. The Houthi militia bombed the Al-Isayad port, in Hodeidah, killing 14 people and wounded 30, most of them civilians.
The Houthi militia also boasted more than 73 torrential bridges and streams of mines linked to rockets and missiles in major roads linking Hodeidah directorates to destroy roads and bridges in the areas they lost and to hinder the progress of the Yemeni army and prevent the return of citizens. Since the signing of the Stockholm Agreement, the Houthi militia has continued to violate the ceasefire by attacking cities under the control of the Yemeni government, blowing up bridges and destroying roads in crimes aimed at passing humanitarian aid to people in need outside its control areas.
The systematic militia destruction of cultural objects and historical monuments of Yemen occurs, either through the trade and sale of antiquities and manuscripts, or their use as military barracks and military sites, and Yemen has joined the countries whose antiquities are sold in public auctions after being looted by gangs and smugglers. Because assaulting or harming antiquities and manuscripts is a crime in accordance with national legislation and an explicit violation of international agreements, militia leaders have added to their crimes against the Yemenis an additional crime by committing hostilities against the historical and artistic works that constitute the cultural heritage of peoples.
Cairo’s ancient castle, on of the most prominent monuments in Taiz and Yemen, was severely damaged as a result of its use by the militias as a military barracks, which were bombing the city and its residential homes, which was subjected to bombing by the resistance to preserve the lives of innocent people. Hundreds of them were killed and injured from the bombing of a tank that was inside The castle destroyed the militias, blew up 7 archaeological monuments in the Dhamar governorate, and before their departure from Aden they looted and destroyed the Aden Museum. Also, the monuments in the governorates of Shabwah and the outskirts of Marib and in Abib were looted and tampered, and large quantities of rare artifacts were smuggled out and only revealed when they were placed. An auction to sell antiquities on the internet.
In Al-Jawf, the militias destroyed 63 archaeological monuments and historical cities that have become almost completely destroyed, including Nashan, Kamana, Haram, Anba, and Nasq, in addition to the well-known and well-known cities such as Baraqish, Qarnaw, Al-Kharba al-Bayda, and Khirbet Al-Aswad. And the bombing of villages and areas of the Hajjur tribes in the district of Keshr, northeast of Hajjah, was mentioned by ballistic missiles, after more than 40 days of the humanitarian blockade.
The author, presenting at this event, said: “I noticed that we have a strange situation that although the international community has extensive information documenting the extent of Iran’s assistance to the Houthis in attacks on civilians and the supply of weapons used in attacks on Yemeni and Saudi cities, as well as oil tankers, oil sites, and airports, no However, the evidence of Iranian interference is increasing. Many attacks on various Saudi cities from Jizran and Abha to Riyadh show evidence of advanced missiles and drones loaded with bombs that could not be produced in Yemen without Iran’s help. The media failed In documenting general violations of human rights by the Houthis, as well as the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
Houthi launched a deadly attack on Aden, killing 32 members of the Yemeni military parade while targeting high-ranking officials. And that’s just one such well known attack against Yemeni cities; the experts have documented attacks against Yemeni civilians that have not been covered by Western media, but which have gone more lethal and precise over time, according to the experts, as the Houthis gained additional access to increasingly more sophisticated Iranian weapons.
Indeed, the international community is well aware that Iran’s interference precedes the ongoing five-year long civil war. These weapons have been secretly replenished with consistency going back decades, while the international community turned a blind eye to the Houthi smuggling of contraband through the Oman borders, excusing it as regular crime rather than a precursor to a coup. Since then, Iran has developed various routes for smuggling weapons, posing a threat to international maritime security.
Despite allegations that the Somali shipping route used to smuggle arms has been closed, the Iranians continue to use shipments, as well as other sea routes on the way to Hodeidah that are under the control of the Houthis and are both necessary as a receiving point for humanitarian supplies and as a point for arms smuggling. The author added that the Houthis were able to smuggle weapons by road and in trucks to Hodeidah, and this complex mechanism dates back to a long period before the civil war where Iran funded, armed, and trained the Houthis for years before the coup. For years the Houthis have been moving back and forth to Iran and we know that Hezbollah and Iranian advisers have been on the ground providing direct assistance and advice away from ground operations or basic training.
That’s how the Houthis were able to assess vulnerabilities of the Saudi defense systems, and to receive complex intelligence information which had allowed them to penetrate cities, attack well protected military bases, and coordinate complex attacks far exceeding their own capabilities and knowledge.
The United Nations has documented that the missiles and drones recovered from the attack sites bear Persian markings and appear similar to the the brands, makes, and models of Iranian weapons used elsewhere in the region, and recovered in other places including in Lebanon, Bahrain, and Iraq.
To counter these threats, it is necessary to prevent Iran from being able to import Western weapons and other weapons and parts that can be used to continue to produce missiles and drones. The international community continues to treat the war in Yemen as an isolated issue, the Houthi attacks on civilians as a Yemeni and a Saudi issue, but in reality this is not the case. The Houthis involved in these attacks must be sanctioned, the entire movement must be considered an Iranian proxy and designated as a terrorist organization such as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, the flow of weapons should be disrupted more forcefully, the delivery routes must be closed and the Houthis must be treated as a global threat, and not only a Yemeni, a Saudi, or even a regional threat, because they are part of Iran’s global network of terrorist agents and will soon have global influence and threaten countries outside the Middle East, just like Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards do. ”
Majdi Al-Akwa, Assistant Secretary-General of the Humanitarian League for Human Rights and member of organizations allied for peace in Yemen affirmed the above-stated concerns.
Interventions were made by the attendees, and they affirmed that the Houthis cannot be trusted and any agreement and truce concluded with them and that the international community should classify them as a terrorist group and deal with them as they do with ISIS.
Continuing on this theme, the following symposium on the sidelines of the Human Rights Council session 44 explored how the Iranian regime embraces terrorism and destroys nations and peoples.
Organizer: The Yemeni Coalition of Independent Women and European organizations allied for peace in Yemen
Attorney Faisal Al-Qifi, head of European organizations allied for peace in Yemen
The first speaker, Peymaneh Shafi, a journalist and member of the Iranian-American community in California, talked about the Iranian regime’s policy and said: “I lived in Iran under the pressure of the regime and fled to asylum in America decades ago, and from here I am trying to help those who are persecuted by the Iranian militias in Iran, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon.
The Iranian regime is being weakened by the pressure of the international community, and friends in Iran are trying to establish the Iranian regime in order to live in safety and peace in the Middle East region.
I am sure that you know that Iran has a great role to play in supporting the Houthi militia, and since 2014 through Hezbollah militias, where Hezbollah trainers have been sent to educate and recruit youth.
And they worked to spread fears among people in order not to refuse to join Houthi.
Wesam Basindowah, the head of the March 8 bloc for the women of Yemen, talked about the influence of Houthi in the Iranian regime also regarding women’s rights, as Houthi pursues Iran’s path to oppress women.
From September 2014 to December 2018, 266 women and their children were arrested. By the Houthi coup, women were valued in Yemen and were not arrested as the militia did.
She expressed hope the activists in Yemen will work to resist the militia and uphold the principle of human rights.
Wesam also added that in the United States, activists are working to classify this militia, to follow Iran’s IRGC and the Lebanese Hezbullah in the terrorist lists, so that Middle Eastern countries can enjoy peace and freedom.
Ben Minick, a Middle East journalist specializing in military strategy, spoke about the role of the international community in classifying Houthi as a terrorist group and said: “I would like to thank you for allowing me to present today to you on behalf of the Yemeni Alliance of Independent Women and in the United States of America. We are gathered here today to discuss the role of the international community in classifying the Houthi rebels as a terrorist group.
The war on terror began long before the United States intervened in 2001. The regime that took power during the 1979 Islamic revolution engaged in a terrorist war from the start. We can spend months discussing the various groups listed, but today I would like to focus specifically on Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels.
More recently, formal legislation has been passed declaring Hezbollah a terrorist group. There is no need for us to review all the reasons for this classification. The main issue that goes into effect is the reasoning behind the amount of time it took to develop a classification.
It is not easy to determine the classification of a particular group as a terrorist. Although it may look better, there is a standard that must be fulfilled. Otherwise, it would be as simple as referring to a group of people that one country does not like or disagree with and causes it to be classified as a terrorist group. This is part of the delay.
To be determined, the group must fit the relevant U.S. law definition. An organization may be classified as a terrorist even if it does not directly attack American targets. However, it must threaten the national security of the United States or its citizens.
In terms of the United States government, once an organization is included in this list of standards, well-written and highly documented legislation must be submitted to Congress. If the majority of delegates in Congress believe in the benefits of the bill, it is passed. This is neither a quick nor easy operation.
But the bill itself does not classify the organization; It only directs the Secretary of State to review the evidence and report back to Congress within a short period of time on whether to classify it and give reasons. For example, the Secretary of State may choose to request additional evidence for review, or require additional time for the review process. Before conducting the designation, the Secretary of State must inform the leaders of Congress; Once the organization is publicly announced as a terrorist organization, the state and treasury department can begin the process of asking financial institutions to freeze their assets.
It can be said that even when the Houthis do not directly attack American targets, they attack US allies, facilitate Iranian terrorism in the region targeting the United States through various agents, facilitate the spread of other terrorist groups, and deal with Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, both of whom are terrorist-specific entities. , In planning operations that could target the area.
Moreover, attacks on Yemen and Saudi Arabia, even when not specifically directed against the United States, endanger American forces.
There may be political reasons for avoiding classification; The political obstacle here is that the Houthis were legalized by the international community and seized power; The internationally recognized government is largely in exile.
The classification of the Houthis means that the United States will have to work closely with the Arab coalition to get the Houthis out of power, which would seem to many Americans as participants in an endless “Middle East war”, even if it was done for reasons of national security , American military intervention is minimal, and confrontation is inevitable and the best way takes place at the time and the method that the United States chooses instead of the opponent.
This also means generating a lot of publicity, long-term legal battles and political attempts to block this move from within the State Department. These are the challenges that must be addressed before this issue is brought up to Congress, let alone the State Department. “
Adel Al Ahmadi, Chairman of the Nashwan Al-Hamiri Council for Studies and Media, talked about the expected effects and consequences of the continued expansion of Houthi’s authority over international peace and security and summarized it in:
- The threat from Yemen’s strategic location between at least two continents overseeing an international strategic corridor and a long coastal strip that stretches from east to west. The threat related to the Houthis being an Iranian focus was found to be a tool to target the Yemeni neighborhood represented by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as it represents the economic status in the world. And both sides proved without detail, that Houthi acted by targeting some ships and threatening navigation.
- The continued control of a sectarian terrorist group by force of arms over the will of the vast majority of Yemenis prepares the country for the possibility of the emergence of extremist terrorist groups from the other side, similar to ISIS and Al Qaeda. He stated that the rise of ISIS in Iraq was the result of terrorism practiced by pro-Iranian militias in previous years against those described as Sunnis. He talked about sectarian thought and how it is based on a revenge racist idea that claims that the government is its own, and that it finds in terrorism and wars one of the most prominent reasons for survival, as it was not possible to find acceptance in social circles except in circles of turmoil.
- The group proceeds from the racist slogan, which exclaims the death of peoples and religions. All that the Houthis do is to see the slogan implemented. He explained that the strategic location of Yemen and the threat that Al-Houthi poses to the Yemeni neighborhood, as happened in targeting the Abqaiq and Khurais fields last year in Saudi Arabia. It indicates that the world may face economic crises whose borders cannot be predicted, if it leaves the chance for the Houthis to remain as an armed group that controls the capital of Yemen and many of Yemen.
- He talked about the seriousness of the threat posed by the Houthi group in that it combines deadly weapons: first the weapon of gun and gunpowder, secondly the weapon of the religious text is false and thus the weapon of atonement and thirdly the weapon of racism and claiming the preference of a particular family and its right to rule and fourth the weapon of hatred and incitement to the Yemeni society or the world as a whole. Finally, Dr. Al-Ahmadi mentionedthe organic affiliation with the Iranian charity project in the region.
- Dr. Wassam Basandouh explained that the arrival of the mullahs regime to power in Iran or what they call the Islamic Republic revolution, is nothing but a military militia coup that brought to power a regime hostile to liberation and the concept of the state and threatens peace and security in the region and the world under the slogan “exporting the revolution”, and it is the same system that supported the militia coup Al-Houthi in Yemen provided it with weapons and fueled it with spiritual ideological sectarian tide. Two days prior to this seminar, there was a session in the Security Council discussing a proposal to renew the arms embargo on Iran, and this matter affects Yemen and the region in particular as it will have its broader effects globally, it clearly means restoring the outright ability of the mullahs ’regime to supply militias Terrorism with weapons in Syria, Hezbollah in Iran, Al-Houthi in Yemen, and in Iraq, and even the restoration of the full capabilities of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which is practicing destabilizing operations extending from the Arab region to Africa, South America and the world.
- The international community’s delay in including Hezbollah as a terrorist group has had dire consequences for European countries and American interests, and the waiting process is long until the world is convinced that the Houthi militia should be included in terrorist lists, and it will raise the cost that the world will face later. We know very well that the United States, for example, and the Western system in general are subject to its classification on the extent of the direct harm that these groups are committing against their interests, they do not care much for the Yemenis, and here we remind him immediately after the Houthi coup and control of the capital, Sanaa, groups of Houthi militia went to storm the American embassy in a blatant violation The Vienna Convention, which secures diplomatic facilities and wreaks havoc on its property.
- Also, the Houthi slogan targets America with hostility, which is a declaration of war, and here Dr. Basindowa wondered how any US proposal for peace in Yemen could include allowing this rogue group to participate in the state and share power after all the crimes it committed? Also evidenced is the renewed American announcement that there are Houthi warships funded by Iran targeting its ships, in addition to the recent reports discussed in the Security Council that recognized that the missiles used to bomb Aramco are Iranian-made missiles, and we do not forget here that the Houthi militia has adopted this launch.
- Missiles, even if it was a false declaration, remains revealing. We as human rights activists conscious of our capabilities know that the inclusion of the Houthi militia on terrorist lists is the decision of its states and needs the efforts of states, Dr. Basindowah said, and that in order to make a decision like this it takes a lot of time, but we also will not give up and will not give up our effort by calling and seeking to classify this militia as a terrorist group and we will remember that the Iranian regime is a regime A terrorist embraces, sponsors and funds terrorism.
Since these presentations were heard, several Houthi leaders went on trial in the Yemeni territories under the Coalition control. It will be instructive to follow the evidence against them presented in the case and to watch what additional details about cooperation with Iran will be revealed in the course of the legal process. Additionally, the Houthis continue to hold Yemen, the region, and international community hostage with the ticking time bomb of the FSO Safer oil tanker, at risk of turning into a colossal environmental disaster, whether through continuing neglect, or a deliberate act of sabotage threatened time and again by the Houthis.
And despite increasing scrutiny and reporting, none of other troubling issues, such as diversion of international humanitarian aid, is going away either. The sooner the United States and others realize that the passive acceptance of Houthi authority is detrimental to whatever other political, economic, and military action is being taken to deter Iran’s aggression in the region and beyond, the more likely they are to develop an effective strategy that might finally begin to address both sides of the equation.
COVID-19 lockdowns are in lockstep with the ‘Great Reset’
In October 2019, a pandemic simulation exercise called Event 201 – a collaborative effort between Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation – concluded that a hypothetical new coronavirus may end up killing at least 65 million people worldwide within 18 months of an outbreak.
When COVID-19 coincidentally emerged from Wuhan two months later, scientists were rushing to generate similar alarmist forecasts using a variety of questionable scientific models. Researchers from the Imperial College London, for instance, approximated death tolls of 500,000 (UK) and two million (USA) by October this year. To those following the metastasis of the global vaccine mania, the Imperial model was predictably “tidied up” with the help of Microsoft.
While scientific models are admittedly fallible, one would nonetheless be hard-pressed to justify the endless string of contradictions, discrepancies and wilful amnesia in the global pandemic narrative. In fact, one should question whether COVID-19 even deserves the tag of a “pandemic”. According to the United States’ Centre for Disease Control (CDC), the updated age-group survival rates for COVID-19 happen to be: Ages 0-19 (99.997%); 20-49 (99.98%); 50-69 (99.5%); and 70+ (94.6%). The mortality rates are only slightly higher than the human toll from seasonal flu and are, in fact, lower than many ailments for the same age cohorts.
If the CDC statistics don’t lie, what kind of “science” have we been subjected to? Was it the science of mass-mediated hysteria? There are other troubling questions yet unanswered. Whatever happened to the theory of bats or pangolins being the source of COVID-19? Who was Patient Zero? Why was there a concerted media agitprop against the prophylactic use of hydroxychloroquine that was backed by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) no less? And why did Prof Neil Ferguson, who had led Imperial’s contagion modelling, repeatedly breach lockdown measures to meet his paramour – right after his recommendations were used to justify draconian lockdowns worldwide which continue till today?
Most damning yet, why are Western media and scientific establishments dismissive of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine? After all, Moscow’s credibility, both scientific and otherwise, is on the line here. In a real pandemic, nobody would care where an effective remedy comes from. The virus does not care about borders and geopolitics; so why should we politicize the origins of an antidote?
Perhaps what we are really dealing with here is a case of mass “coronapsychosis” as Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko aptly called it. Who benefits from global lockdowns that are destabilizing all facets of our society? The following four “great” undercurrents may provide a clue.
The Great Deflection
As the author had warned for more than a decade, the world is staring at a confluence of risk overloads, socioeconomic meltdowns1 and a Second Great Depression. For the ruling classes, COVID-19 is fortuitously deflecting public attention away from the disastrous consequences of decades of economic mismanagement and wealth fractionation. The consolidation of Big Tech with Big Media2has created an Orwellian world where collective hysteria is shifting loci from bogeymen like Russia to those who disagree with the pandemic narrative.
We have entered a “new normal” where Pyongyang, North Korea, affords more ambulatory freedom than Melbourne, Australia. While rioting and mass demonstrations by assorted radicals are given a free pass – even encouraged by leaders in the West –Facebook posts questioning lockdowns are deemed subversive. This is a world where Australian Blueshirts beat up women, manhandle a pregnant woman in her own home, and perform wolf pack policing on an elderly lady in a park. Yet, the premier of the Australian state of Victoria remains unfazed by the unflattering moniker of Kim Jong Dan.
The corona-totalitarianism is unsurprisingly most pronounced in the Anglosphere and its dependencies. After all, these nations are staring at socioeconomic bankruptcies of unprecedented proportions vis-à-vis their counterparts. Even their own governments are being systematically undermined from within. The US Department of Homeland Security, created in the aftermath of 9/11 to combat terrorism, is now providing$10 million in grants to organizations which supposedly combat “far-right extremism and white supremacy”. This will further radicalize leftist malcontents who are razing down US cities and its economies in the name of social justice. There is however a curious rationale behind this inane policy as the following section illustrates.
The Great Wealth Transfer
While the circus continues, the bread is thinning out, except for the Top 0.001%. Instead of bankruptcy as recent trends indicated, Silicon Valley and affiliated monopolies are notching up record profits along with record social media censorships. US billionaires raked in $434 billion in the first two months of the lockdown alone. The more the lockdowns, the more the wealth accrued to the techno-elite. As tens of millions of individuals and small businesses face bankruptcy by Christmas, the remote work revolution is gifting multibillion dollar jackpots to the likes of Jeff Bezos (Amazon) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook). Azure (Microsoft) and AWS (Amazon) cloud eco-systems, among others, have expanded by 50% since the beginning of the pandemic.
In the face of such runaway wealth fractionation, panoptic contact tracing tools from Big Tech are increasingly employed to pacify restive populations. And of course, to prevent a second, third or Nth wave of COVID-19 for our collective good!
In the meantime, Big Banks, Big Pharma, Big Tech and other monopolies are getting lavish central bank bailouts or “stimulus packages” to gobble up struggling smaller enterprises. COVID-19 is a gift that never stops giving to a select few. But how will the techno-oligarchy maintain a degree of social credibility and control in an impoverished and tumultuous world?
The Great Philanthropy
Oligarchic philanthropy will be a dominant feature of this VUCA decade3. According to a recent Guardian report, philanthropic foundations have multiplied exponentially in the past two decades, controlling a war chest worth more than $1.5 trillion. That is sufficient to bankroll a horde of experts, NGOs, industry lobbies, media and fact-checkers worldwide. Large sums can also be distributed rapidly to undermine governments. The laws governing scientific empiricism are no longer static and immutable; they must dance in tandem with the funding. Those who scream fake news are usually its foremost peddlers. This is yet another “new normal” which had actually predated COVID-19 by decades.
The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) is a prime example of how oligarchic philanthropy works. Since 2000, it has donated more than $45 billion to “charitable causes” and a chunk of thisis designed to control the global media narrative. The Guardian, rather tellingly, credits the BMGF for helping eradicate polio despite contrary reports of wanton procedural abuses, child death tolls and poverty exploitations which routinely mar the foundation’s vaccination programs. Bill Gates even interprets vaccine philanthropy in terms of a 20-to-1 return on investments, as he effused to CNBC last year.
As for the BMGF’s alleged polio success, officials now fear that a dangerous new strain could soon “jump continents”. After spending $16 billion over 30 years to eradicate polio, international health bodies – which work closely with BMGF – have “accidentally” reintroduced the disease to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran.
Poverty, hunger and desperation will spawn a tangible degree of public gratitude despite elite philanthropy’s entrenched bias towards elite institutions and causes. By the Guardian’s own admission, “British millionaires gave £1.04bn to the arts, and just £222m to alleviating poverty” in the 10-year period to 2017. Contrast this with the annual $10 billion earmarked by the philanthropic pool for “ideological persuasion” in the US alone. The rabble is worth their weight only for the potential havoc they can wreak.
There is enough money floating around to reduce our cities into bedlams of anarchy as seen in the United States today. (It will only get worse after the Nov 3 US presidential elections).The crumbs left over can be delegated to threadbare charities. One only needs to reflect on soup kitchens in the post-1929 Weimar Republic. The most popular ones were organized by the Nazi party and funded by wealthy patrons. The march towards a new order has a familiar historical meme. The new Brownshirts are those who terrorise citizens for not wearing masks, for not being locked down in their pens, and for simply supporting a political candidate of choice. Even children who do not follow the oligarchic narrative are not spared!
The Great Reset
A great pruning will inevitably occur in the mega-billionaire club as whatever remains of the global corona-economy is systematically cannibalized. The club will get smaller but wealthier and will attempt to sway our collective destiny. Control over education, healthcare, means of communications and basic social provisions is being increasingly ceded by governments to the global elite. Governments colluding in the “new normal” will sooner or later face the ire of distressed masses. Politicians and assorted “social justice warriors” will be scapegoated once they have outlived their usefulness.
In this cauldron, the century-old technocratic dream of replacing politicians, electoral processes and businesses with societies run by scientists and technical experts4may emerge – thanks to advances in panoptic technologies. It will be an age for the “rational science of production” and “scientific collectivism”. The latter is eerily redolent of the Soviet sharaska (prison labs) system.
The production and supply of goods will be coordinated by a central directorate5, led not by elected representatives (whose roles, where they exist, will be nominal anyway) but by technocrat factotums. Perhaps this is what the World Economic Forum refers to as the Great Reset. In reality though, this idea smacks of a global Gosplan minus the Doctor Sausages for the innumerable many.
(Some emerging economies like Malaysia and India casually refer to technocracy as an infusion of greater technical expertise into bureaucracy. This is a misinterpretation of technocracy’s longstanding means and goals).
One intractable problem remains: will the emerging global oligarchy tolerate the existence of various deep states worldwide? Initially, both groupings may cooperate to their mutual benefit but their respective raisons d’être are too contradictory to be reconciled One thrives on an “open society” run by obedient hirelings who will administer a global Ministry of Truth while the other depends on secrecy and a degree of national sovereignty to justify its existence. Surveillance technologies ushered in by the ongoing “coronapsychosis” may end up being the deciding factor in this struggle.
After all, if social media posts by the President of the United States and the White House can be blatantly censored today, think of the repercussions for billions of people worldwide tomorrow?
Author’s note: An abridged version of this article was published by RT on Oct 14
1. Maavak, M. (2012), Class Warfare, Anarchy and the Future Society: Is the Middle Class forging a Gramscian Counter-Hegemonic Bloc Worldwide? Journal of Futures Studies, December 2012, 17(2): 15-36.
2. Maavak, M. (2019). Bubble to Panopticon: Dark Undercurrents of the Big Data Torrent.Kybernetes, Vol. 49 No. 3, pp. 1046-1060. https://doi.org/10.1108/K-06-2019-0403
3. Maavak, M (2021). Maavak, M. (2021). Horizon 2020-2030: Will Emerging Risks Unravel our Global Systems? Accepted for publication.Salus Journal, Issue 1 2021.
4. Elsner, Jr., Henry (1967). The Technocrats: Prophets of Automation. Syracuse University.
5. Stabile, D.R. (1986). Veblen and the Political Economy of the Engineer: the radical thinker and engineering leaders came to technocratic ideas at the same time.American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Vol, 45, No. 1, 1986, pp. 43-44.
Should Turkey and Azerbaijan Be Worried About Killed Syrian Mercenaries?
Just a few weeks ago many analysts and observers were sceptical about reports of Turkey’s transferring units of its Syrian National Army (SNA) proxies to Nagorno Karabakh, even more so because Turkish officials denied any such claims. However, as evidence of massive casualties among the Syrian mercenaries continues to mount, there is little space left for doubt: SNA fighters have become cannon fodder in the Turkish operation in support of Azerbaijan.
The first batch of bodies of those Syrians who perished in Nagorno Karabakh counted over 50 people, according to messages and videos that went viral on opposition WhatsApp and Telegram channels. Among the dead who were delivered to Syria over Hiwar Kilis border crossing and were given a hasted burial were men from Aleppo, Idlib, Homs and other regions of Syria. Many of their relatives, like families of Muhammad Shaalan from Atareb and Kinan Ferzat from Maarat al-Nuuman, were shocked to learn about their death.
Just like the majority of the Syrians who travelled to Nagorno Karabakh, Muhammad and Firzat were primarily motivated by lucrative rewards of up to 2,000 dollars promised by Turkey. “I came here to make money and have a better life back in Syria where the living conditions are miserable. I consider this a job, nothing else,” a member of Liwa Sultan Murad, one of the first SNA factions to deploy its fighters to the contested region, told Guardian.
The reason behind heavy casualties of the Syrian mercenaries is that they are thrown into action where the clashes are the most violent, including Jabrayil, Terter, Fizulin and Talysh. This move allows Azerbaijan to keep its military, who mainly provide air support including operating Turkey-made Bayraktar TB2 UAVs and coordinate artillery and missile strikes of the Armenian positions, out of direct contact with the enemy.
The estimates of the numbers of the Syrian mercenaries present in Nagorno Karabakh are wildly different. While initial reports put their number at 500 men, it is currently believed that the actual number may be in thousands. This data indicates that at least 10 percent of the fighters were killed during the very first days of the escalation – a serious alarm for the mercenaries as well as their Turkish backers.
These developments must ring a bell for Azerbaijan as well. The longer the conflict protracts, the higher the risk of casualties among the Azeri servicemen becomes, who have already suffered losses in Armenian retaliation strikes. Baku has managed to avoid discontent among the military as well as the civilian populace – not least thanks to the Syrian mercenaries crushed as cannon fodder – but this can not continue for long.
Emerging Multipolarity and its consequences
“Make America great again” a slogan that formed the nucleus of trump’s electoral campaign vividly suggests that America is no more a great country. It is, in fact, an implicit admission that U.S is gradually losing its clout in international politics and hence, its image as a sole superpower of the world has virtually tarnished. Let me rephrase this connotation; it means that the era of unipolar world is over and the world has now transitioned to a multipolarirty.
Currently, new power centers are emerging in transnational political landscape. China, Russia, India and Turkey are excessively engaged to carve a niche for them in evolving international order. Most importantly, with China and Russia’s mushrooming proximity, balance of power is now shifting from west to east. Former United States (US) Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton at her state visit to New Zealand was one of the first to observe “a shifting balance of power to a more multi-polar world as opposed to the Cold War model of a bipolar world”. This conspicuous change in multi-national political setup was also realized by Ban ki Moon, the then secretary- General of United Nations who stated at Stanford University in 2013 that we have begun to “move increasingly and irreversibly to a multi-polar world”. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, also declared at the Russia-China Conference 2016 that “international relations have entered into a conceptually new historical stage that consists in the emergence of a multi-polar world order and reflects the strengthening of new centers of economic development and power”.
These manifestations of political spin doctors have since then revealed a general acceptance of the idea of multi-polar world as a concept that is inescapable political reality in the contemporary international dynamics. However, when it comes to the transitions and inevitability of power structures, there is a little agreement among the international states.
A much stronger resistance to forego unipolarity remains embedded in the Trump administration vision to “make America great again”. Political pundits such as Robert Kaplan continue to question, whether there is an overlap of unipolar and multi-polar world realities; where US continues to retain the supremacy in military realm of affairs and is anticipated to remain so for a considerable future time, whereby China leads in the economic realm. Additionally nations in the former Third World are acquiring status as rising powers, notably India who have over the years with smart diplomacy have acquired global outreach to shape international agenda.
Chronologically, After World War II, the U.S. became the undisputed and unchallenged global superpower. It was the only country, equipped with nuclear warheads and was one of the few countries involved in the war that came away from it relatively unscathed at home. The U.S. underwent a meager loss of approximately 400,000 soldiers and a fractional amount of civilians in the war. The Soviet Union, meanwhile, incurred a gigantic loss of around 11 million soldiers and some 7 million to 10 million civilians. While Soviet and European cities were undergoing the process of rehabilitation, American cities flourished. It seemed clear to all that the future belonged to the United States.
But it didn’t take long for the luster of unrivaled power to tarnish. The U.S. military machine relaxed as quickly as it had mobilized, and wartime unity gave way to peacetime political debates over government spending and entitlement programs. Within five years, a bipolar world emerged: The Soviets attained an atomic bomb, and the U.S. was caught flat-footed in a war on the Korean Peninsula that ended in a stalemate. Soon thereafter, the U.S. was withdrawing from Vietnam and rioting at home. In 1971, then-President Richard Nixon predicted a world that he said would soon emerge in which the U.S. was “no longer in the position of complete pre-eminence.” Within 26 years of the end of World War II, Nixon’s prediction saw the light of the day and the U.S. had to resign to its fate.
Theoretically, multipolarity refers to a distribution of power in which more than two states have nearly equal amounts of military, cultural, financial and economic influence.
If we look at the contemporary world, we find that with the rise of like China, India, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil, global power will spread across a wider range of countries, hence, a new world order with multipolar outlook is likely to emerge .
Realistically speaking, several revisionist powers are and will shaking up their regions. For instance, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 – annexing Crimea, over which it has fought several wars throughout history (mainly with Turkey). In turn, Turkey is asserting its sovereignty over the eastern Mediterranean to the frustration of countries like Greece, Egypt, Cyprus and Israel. Meanwhile, India has upped its aggression in its border dispute with Pakistan as Modi began a process to revoke the autonomous status of the disputed territories of Jammu and Kashmir.
Notably, after the age of city-states and nation-states, we are now entering the age of continental politics. The most powerful countries of the 21st century (the U.S., China, Russia India, Indonesia, and Brazil) are the size of continents. They have broad economic bases and their digital economies potentially have hundreds of millions of users. Internationally, their scale requires them to seek broad spheres of influence in order to protect their security.
Here the question arises what will be the impact of growing multipolarity in the world? First of all, revisionist powers will increasingly ignite tensions. The growing assertiveness of countries like Russia, Turkey and India is the new normal. As they grow more powerful, these countries will seek to revise arrangements in order to reflect the new realities of power. Because these (continental) states seek broad spheres of influence, many places are at risk of destabilization.
Second, one of the biggest risks is the growing paranoia of the hegemon (the U.S.). The current trade war has shown how destabilizing the policy of the (financial) hegemon becomes as it feels threatened by the rise of a rival. Historically, this has been the most important source of violent conflicts. Indeed, the biggest source of uncertainty in the coming years is how the U.S. will react to the rise of China.
Third, the world order will become more ambiguous. Two developments deserve our attention. First, the growing use of shadow power will make conflict more unpredictable. With digital tools, states (and non-state actors) are manipulating each other in subtle ways. For example, Russian hackers posed as Iranians to hit dozens of countries and Americans blamed Russia for tampering with American elections. Second, alliances will also become more ambiguous. With ever changing dynamics of world economy, new alliances, motivated by the concept of triangulation (to keep balance in relation with the US and China, the trade warriors) will form and such alliances, as predicted by spin doctors; will be less stable than the blocs, formed in 20th century.
To sum it up, before we reach a multipolar world order, we will see a period of growing uncertainty based on the rise of revisionist powers, the paranoia of the U.S. and growing ambiguity of conflict and cooperation. Moreover, the political pundits are divided in opinion that whether multi-polarity is unstable than unipolarity or bipolarity. Kenneth Waltz strongly was in favor of “bipolar order as stable”. On the other side, Karl Deutsch and David Singer saw multi-polarity as guaranteeing a greater degree of stability in an article published in 1964, “Multipolar Systems and International Stability”. Simon Reich and Richard Ned Lebow in “Goodbye Hegemony” (2014), question the belief whether a global system without a hegemon would be unstable and more war prone. However, whatever the system the world is likely to witness in the days to come, let’s hope that this should be in the best interest of humanity and it should make the lives of the inhabitants of this planet peaceful and prosperous.
The Role of Malaysia in ASEAN
The three important objectives of ASEAN, a. collaboration and cooperation; b. trade and economic growth; and c. peace and stability,...
What is the public sphere today in Turkey?
The concept of public sphere, which was started to be examined in Europe in the 1960s, has different meanings according...
Armenia: Lies and realities
The OSCE Minsk Group was established to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which arose as a result of Armenia’s brutal interference...
Solutions to accelerate renewables integration and power system resilience
Singapore and the International Energy Agency today co-hosted the second Global Ministerial Conference on System Integration of Renewables (SIR). The...
Taking For Granted … Be Wary
The title of these comments is inspired by my personal experience in important areas of public policy both as a...
European defence still matters but not for Lithuania
European countries have different points of view on the issue of the EU collective defence and security. These views divide...
Environmental impacts of export of used vehicles to developing world
Millions of used cars, vans and minibuses exported from Europe, the United States and Japan to the developing world are...
Science & Technology1 day ago
Rachel Lyons: Shaping the future of humanity in space
Development2 days ago
Global collaboration is key to recovery and achieving the SDGs
Southeast Asia3 days ago
Lessons from Cambodia and the way ahead- quest for peace and reconciliation
Southeast Asia2 days ago
US Secretary of State Pompeo set to boost Indonesian religious reform efforts
Defense2 days ago
Who Needs A Proxy War In The Caucasus?
New Social Compact3 days ago
Classroom crisis: Avert a ‘generational catastrophe’
Eastern Europe2 days ago
Ceasefire Violated, Civilians of Ganja, Azerbaijan Hit –Again
Africa2 days ago
It is time to end the illegal sanctions on Zimbabwe