The expeditious pace at which the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel pursued normalization left the people of Pakistan in a state of utter astonishment. The vast majority of Pakistanis firmly believe that the establishment of diplomatic ties between the UAE and Israel was made possible by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s implied approval of the Abraham Accords. Many people believe that the former prime minister of Pakistan was hand-picked for the position, and he has admitted that he has faced significant pressure to recognize Israel.

Similarly, Pervez Musharraf, the former president of Pakistan, advocated in July 2003 for a national discussion on the viability of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, speculating that such a discussion might serve as a counterbalance to Pakistan’s antagonistic relationship with India. However, it should be noted that any attempt by Pakistan to normalize relations with Israel would inevitably require overcoming a number of formidable challenges, such as divisions within the military, opposition from political rivals, and hostile rhetoric from Islamic clerics.

Although, since its inception, Pakistan’s identity as a Muslim nation founded on Islamic principles has influenced its foreign policy. Islamist unity has been a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy, especially in its relations with the Middle East. In international forums, Pakistan has consistently and unwaveringly supported Arab positions in the hopes of receiving similar support from Muslim and Arab nations in their ongoing disputes with India over Kashmir and other issues.

However, Pakistan has an opportunity to reevaluate its own policy toward the Jewish state as countries in the Gulf region begin to normalize their diplomatic relations with Israel. The acknowledgment from nations like Bahrain, the UAE, and Morocco, as well as Saudi Arabia’s covert talks with Israel, may encourage Islamabad to present its case for recognition of Israel to a skeptical domestic audience. Any change in Pakistan’s foreign policy toward Israel, though, is certain to face vehement opposition from the country’s conservative and religious groups.

Manifestly, strategically, and diplomatically, there appears to be no tangible downside to the act of acknowledging Israel. The predicament lies primarily in the realm of ideology and politics. Israel, much like India, is an ideological blind spot for Pakistan. By instilling hatred in its people towards India and Israel and branding them as ‘Yahood-o-Hanood’ (Jewish and Hindu), arch-enemies who are constantly plotting against ‘Mumlikat-e-Khudadad’ (God-gifted state), Pakistan has, in fact, maneuvered itself into a deadlock.

In light of this, any type of reconsideration has turned into a political flashpoint, not just among politicians, but also within the military establishment. If the government even takes a small step toward recognizing Israel, the opposition will splinter it. A warpath has been threatened, and the clerics have also spoken out against recognizing Israel.

Pakistan’s steadfast refusal to recognize Israel until a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian conflict and the establishment of an independent state has yielded little progress for the Palestinian cause over the years. Despite Pakistan’s steadfast refusal to recognize Israel, which provides a moral impetus for the advancement of a Palestinian state, particularly as the only nuclear power in the Islamic world, this policy has not led to positive results for either Palestine or Pakistan. Although the idea of establishing diplomatic ties with Israel is no longer regarded as forbidden in Pakistan, attitudes toward Israel there are still largely unfavorable.

Meanwhile, some have argued that accepting Israel’s legitimacy would not be a problem if it resulted in a solution to the Palestine problem, which might help Islamabad win diplomatic support in international forums. India and sporadically the India-Israel alliance, are frequently blamed for terrorist attacks, security lapses, and intelligence gaffes in Pakistan.

Moreover, given that Israel will not approach its relations with Pakistan in a zero-sum manner relative to its relations with India, this argument is overly simplistic and disconnected from the realities on the ground. This idea is somewhat comparable to the claim that by diplomatically engaging with Russia, Pakistan will diversify its defense allies. Russia did not sever its long-standing security and diplomatic ties with Delhi to favor Pakistan, despite Islamabad developing cordial relations with Moscow over the years. In fact, Delhi is a much larger market for Tel Aviv than Islamabad in the context of shifting geopolitics in the Middle East and both have more in common.

Last but not least, Pakistan is firmly rooted in outdated ideals and ignores the fact that the Muslim world has lost interest in using its collective influence to address the Palestine issue, despite the volatile and rapidly changing political environment. In fact, it has turned out that the very idea that the Muslim world, propelled by a sense of Islamic solidarity, could force Washington and Tel Aviv to cede political ground regarding Palestine was simply a fantasy.

At the invitation of Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang of the People’s Republic of China undertook his first official visit to Pakistan from 5 to 6 May 2023. On 6 May 2023, the two Foreign Ministers co-chaired the 4th round of the Foreign Minister-level Pakistan-China Strategic Dialogue in Islamabad.

The Strategic Dialogue is a structured mechanism that reviews bilateral cooperation in key areas. The two sides reaffirmed the abiding vitality of the All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership; develop a roadmap for multidimensional cooperation between Pakistan and China; and discuss the evolving regional and global landscape.

During the dialogue, the entire range of bilateral relations and cooperation, including in political, strategic, economic, defense security, education, and cultural domains was reviewed. Regional and global issues of mutual interest were also discussed.

The Foreign Minister of Pakistan congratulated the Chinese leadership on the successful holding of the ‘Two Sessions’. He wished China’s people and the new leadership greater success in building a strong, prosperous, and modern socialist country. He also expressed his resolve to work together with State Councilor Qin Gang to further fortify the Pakistan-China relationship.

Recalling the consensus reached between the leadership of the two countries during the visit of Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif to Beijing in November 2022, the two sides agreed to further strengthen Pakistan-China strategic relations amidst profound regional and international changes. The Foreign Ministers expressed satisfaction at the growing momentum in high-level exchanges between Pakistan and China while reaffirming the need for convening important bilateral sectoral engagements.

The two Foreign Ministers underlined that Pakistan-China friendship was a historic reality and a conscious choice of the two nations. As ‘All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partners’, Pakistan and China enjoy complete mutual trust, and their iron-clad friendship enjoys complete consensus in both countries.

Both sides agreed on continuing their enduring support on issues concerning each other’s core national interests. Reaffirming Pakistan’s special place in China’s neighborhood diplomacy, the Chinese side reiterated its firm support for Pakistan’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, as well as its unity, stability, and economic prosperity. The Pakistani side reiterated its commitment to the “One China” policy as well as its firm support to China on all core issues of its national interest, including Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea.

Welcoming the completion of a decade of CPEC in 2023, the two sides hailed CPEC as a shining example of Belt and Road cooperation which has accelerated socio-economic development, job creation, and improvement of people’s livelihoods in Pakistan. Reaffirming their commitment to the high-quality development of CPEC, both sides noted with satisfaction the steady progress of CPEC projects. The two sides reiterated the key significance of the ML-1 project under the CPEC framework and agreed to advance its earliest implementation. They also agreed to actively advance the Karachi Circular Railway alongside key areas of cooperation including, inter alia, agriculture, science and technology, IT, and renewable energy.

The two sides reviewed the progress of various projects at Gwadar, including the Friendship Hospital and New Gwadar International Airport (NGIA). Both sides reiterated their resolve to develop Gwadar as a high-quality port and a hub for regional trade and connectivity.

Acknowledging industrialization as highly conducive to long-term sustainable economic growth and development, they also agreed to work together in the guidance of the Framework Agreement on Industrial Cooperation to actively advance industrial cooperation. Both sides reiterated that CPEC is an open and inclusive platform for win-win cooperation and invited third parties to maximize benefits from CPEC.

The Pakistani side expressed gratitude to the Chinese side for its economic and financial support and its generous assistance package for post-flood reconstruction and rehabilitation.

The two sides reiterated their firm resolve to counter-terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. Acknowledging the endeavors and sacrifices made by Pakistan in the fight against terrorism and extremism, the Chinese side appreciated the measures taken by Pakistan to ensure enhanced security of Chinese projects, personnel, and institutions in Pakistan, as well as the steps are taken to apprehend and bring to justice the perpetrators targeting Chinese nationals in Dasu, Karachi and other attacks. The two sides agreed to further build on the cooperation in security and counter-terrorism domains.

Reviewing their cooperation on regional and international issues at multilateral forums such as the United Nations and Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the two sides agreed to further deepen their coordination and cooperation to safeguard mutual interests. Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and support for multilateralism, free trade, and win-win cooperation.

The Pakistani side supports the Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative put forward by the Chinese side. The two sides are ready to advance cooperation on the GDI and GSI bilaterally and in multilateral fora. The Pakistani side welcomed the Global Civilization Initiative proposed by the Chinese side.

Both sides underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability in South Asia and the need for the resolution of all outstanding disputes. The Pakistani side briefed the Chinese side on the latest developments of the situation in Jammu & Kashmir. The Chinese side reiterated that the Kashmir dispute was left over from history and should be properly and peacefully resolved in accordance with the UN Charter, relevant Security Council resolutions, and bilateral agreements. Both sides opposed any unilateral actions that further complicate the already volatile situation.

Stressing that peace and stability in Afghanistan is vital for socio-economic development, connectivity, and prosperity in the region, both sides called on all stakeholders to work together for a peaceful, stable, prosperous, and united Afghanistan, which would firmly combat terrorism and live in harmony with its neighbors. The two sides underscored the need for the international community to provide continued assistance and support to Afghanistan including through unfreezing of Afghanistan’s overseas financial assets. The two sides agreed to continue their humanitarian and economic assistance for the Afghan people and enhance development cooperation in Afghanistan, including through the extension of CPEC to Afghanistan.

Qin said his country will “continue to do our best to support Pakistan’s foreign exchange and financial stability.” It was the Chinese decision to roll over even commercial loans to Pakistan that has helped keep Pakistan financially afloat. So, China’s help has been extremely vital to help Pakistan, at least keep its foreign exchange reserves.

Both foreign ministers rejected the perception that Pakistan is a victim of “debt-trap diplomacy” and the assertions that China targets struggling economies through unsustainable loans to pursue its geo-strategic goals. There is no basis whatsoever in the so-called debt sustainability, debt trap … concerns that are propagated. Chinese investment and financial support … is in keeping with the traditions of our unique, time-tested friendship.

Qin’s visit to Pakistan comes on the heels of the Pakistani army chief’s visit to Beijing just over a week ago and a bilateral political consultation there in March. The two heads of state met in China last November.

During a visit by the Chinese Foreign Minister to Pakistan, some potential expected outcomes could include:

Strengthening Bilateral Relations: The visit may aim to reaffirm the strong friendship and deepen bilateral ties between China and Pakistan. The discussions could focus on enhancing cooperation in areas such as trade, investment, energy, infrastructure projects, and people-to-people exchanges.

Economic Collaboration: Both countries may discuss furthering economic cooperation, including implementing projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This ambitious initiative aims to connect Gwadar Port in Pakistan’s Balochistan province with China’s northwestern region of Xinjiang through a network of infrastructure projects.

Security and Defense Cooperation: Given the strategic nature of their relationship, security, and defense collaboration may be a significant part of the discussions. This could involve discussions on joint military exercises, arms deals, intelligence sharing, and counterterrorism efforts.

Regional and International Issues: China and Pakistan often coordinate their positions on regional and international matters. The visit may involve discussions on issues like Afghanistan, regional stability, cooperation within multilateral forums like the United Nations, and common interests in South Asia and the broader region.

People-to-People Exchanges: Cultural, educational, and tourism exchanges may be highlighted during the visit. Efforts to enhance people-to-people contacts, student exchanges, and cultural cooperation could be discussed as means to deepen the understanding and friendship between the two nations.

The current standoff between major political parties in Pakistan has also deepened the county’s constitutional crisis. With politicians unwilling to set aside their differences, Pakistan’s democracy and governing institutions are in serious trouble. We often hear that in an ideal democracy the essential aim is to maintain a balance between democratic freedoms and social order. However, what we are witnessing today is quite the opposite. Instead of engaging in healthy democratic political competition, political actors are bending backwards to literally terminate each other. A recurring question that is often asked and answered is the extent to which polarisation has increased in the country. And the common answer is yes it has, indeed, increased and in unprecedented ways. 

No other country within the proximate region has seen so much political violence for so long, and with as many entangled dimensions as Pakistan has. Not a day goes by without the forces of polarization manifesting across the nation, further worsening our state of uncertainty. From filing several cases, to using regulatory authorities to block coverage and speeches of opposition leaders, to conducting searches and arrests on mostly fabricated and easily dismissed charges. The government is currently engaged in politics of reprisal, making a mockery of democracy and the rule of law. In all past instances, the results of such periods of intense polarization have only resulted in destabilization while harming the institutions which are essential to democracy. Not to mention that political attitudes, such as these, have generated an atmosphere of hostility among political leaders that go far beyond the normal boundaries of peaceful political contestation. All scholars of democracy collectively agree on this notion, that the greatest reward of democratic systems is not just limited to rapid economic growth or progressive social policies, but also the certainty that the transfer of power from one government to another will be peaceful and predictable. A system of governance in which elections are not held on time and are marred by irregularities is less of the democracy it is intended to be and more of an exploitative authoritarian regime. The government’s recent line of strategy seems like a desperation to retain power. Giving rise to potential new threats when it comes to the viability of democratic rule in Pakistan. Such events have strengthened the growing public perception that it is all part of a greater political game to block the democratic process of change that is conducted through elections. After all, a truncated National Assembly cannot claim to represent the entire electorate, as they must seek fresh mandate from the public to govern. They must realize that there are no “choices” in the constitutional prescription when it comes to election timelines. If elections could be held back in 2008, there is no reason why they cannot be held now. Politicians who are hiding behind the judiciary’s internal turmoil to reject the Supreme Court of Pakistan’s latest ruling in the elections delay case should, perhaps, not throw both sense and restraint out of the window.

 In this atmosphere of heightened political polarisation, where the stakes are so high, and the divisions are so deep; the fate of Pakistan’s difficult democratic transition depends on its political leadership. The power to navigate the ship back to calmer seas has, since the beginning, rested on their shoulders. Should cooler heads prevail, as one certainly hopes, the two sides can reach some form of negotiated settlement. Political reconciliation is the need of time, given the multitudes of external and internal challenges presently confronting the economic and political landscape of Pakistan. Instead of trying to use extra-legal means to maintain its rule, the government should seek to defuse the deepening political polarization that currently exists. They must realize that it cannot force any exception to the Constitution without setting a precedent that will shatter the very foundations of Pakistani democracy. One must remember that such tactics did not work previously, and they will certainly not work for now. At this crucial stage, the nation needs all hands-on deck. Putting citizens first, respecting their right to vote in a timely manner and recognizing their ownership of the country are crucial. Running away from the elections is not the solution to the problems that we are confronted with. This current wave of revenge politics has created an extremely dangerous situation that threatens to derail the entire democratic political process. Even more worrying is the fact that the unfolding political power game has exacerbated the clash of institutions, leading towards a systemic collapse.

As for the friendly countries to whom we go far too often, hat in hand, the message from them is quite clear: put your house in order first, they tell us, and with good reason. Except we refuse to do anything like that. In the coming months, with food price inflation at an all-time high, should tempers instead continue to increase, more violence and unrest can be expected, further destabilizing the polity and undermining a fragile economy at the expense of the Pakistani citizens lives and livelihoods. The window for finding an amicable way out of the present crisis is closing fast. It is incumbent upon both parties to find a democratic solution to this impasse as there is no point in putting up defiance at the peril of public peace. At present, the only way forward is free and fair elections and restoration of constitutional order. Although the coalition government has stated that only the parliament has the mandate to legislate and decide on elections, it should be borne in mind that no decision by the legislature should violate the Constitution of Pakistan. The 90-day constitutional limit of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab caretaker governments has already passed, and it would not be incorrect to say that the two caretaker administrations are presently operating in a legal vacuum. Now is the time for power circles in Pakistan to rise above the politics of tactical manoeuvring for short-term political and economic gains. Now is the time for better sense to prevail and for there to be constructive engagement rather than destruction.