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Building for Peace: A New Approach to Break the Cycle of Violence and Conflict

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Tragic levels of death, destruction, displacement and disorder from ongoing conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen require a new approach focused on building — not rebuilding — to support transitions to sustainable peace. This is the key message of the new World Bank report, Building for Peace: Reconstruction for Security, Sustainable Peace, and Equity in MENA (B4P), funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

Examining nearly a decade of reconstruction and peacebuilding approaches that have mostly been centered on top-down state-building, experts from the World Bank and BMZ joined efforts to take a fresh look at reconstruction, development and the transformation process to sustainable peace in the Middle East and North Africa region and beyond.

The resulting report, Building for Peace: Reconstruction for Security, Sustainable Peace, and Equity in MENA, utilizes a multidisciplinary approach to develop a thorough understanding of how conflict is embedded within complex national, local and regional dynamics and political and economic power structures. This approach helps map a long-term vision for sustainable and inclusive peace, recognizing the tradeoffs and risks that policymakers and practitioners face to build after conflict.

After a decade of conflict that has inflicted severe and senseless suffering, we need a paradigm shift from ‘building back better’ to building sustainable peace,” said Ferid Belhaj, World Bank Vice President for the Middle East and North Africa. “Building for Peace shows, in grave detail, the importance of addressing past grievances; rethinks the entire approach to building after conflict; and gives us a roadmap for helping create sustainable economic opportunities for all.

Building for Peace urges policymakers and development practitioners to focus on bottom-up, inclusive engagement to build stronger physical infrastructure and central government institutions. It suggests supporting legitimate and inclusive institutions at all levels, restarting local economies to create sustainable economic opportunities, and leveraging resilient assets. This approach ensures that interventions are anchored in the priorities and assets of the communities affected by conflict to promote social cohesion and build social capital.

The report makes the case for broadening our knowledge and creating a long-term vision based on more comprehensive and dynamic assessments to lay the foundation for interventions in these complex environments. These assessments should identify local, subnational and regional dynamics, institutions, and structural factors and how they interact with political and economic dynamics over time. The assessment should go beyond a snapshot of conditions at one point in time and should be a living narrative — an ongoing, multidimensional process of analysis.

A comprehensive understanding of the situation on the ground can help prevent ‘blinders in policy design’ and ill-conceived interventions that could undermine the future of peace,” said Francesca Recanatini, a member of the core team behind the report. “Developing such an understanding requires much broader outreach to a wide range of stakeholders and informants and the creative use of new technologies and innovations.

The report benefited from the inputs and collective thinking of more than 15 think-tanks and policy institutions; academic researchers; policymakers; government officials; practitioners on the ground; and colleagues from other international organizations and NGOs, from the MENA region and globally, which worked collaboratively over a period of two years. It has also benefited from the views and collective feedback of citizens, experts, and practitioners through a series of consultative workshops and online surveys conducted anonymously in Iraq, Libya and Yemen.

This regional and cross-sectoral project has shown the importance of pursuing a multi-dimensional, collaborative approach that brings together a variety of stakeholders with a range of different perspectives and backgrounds. This is exactly what is needed in crisis contexts, and we should apply it in other regions beyond MENA,” said Volker Oel, Commissioner for the Middle East, Southeastern and Eastern Europe, and Latin America at Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). “Meeting the challenges of protracted conflict and violence requires more effective partnerships between different actors and informed interventions driven by international commitment and backed by predictable resources. We are looking forward to establishing a platform for further learning and the operationalization of the Building for Peace approach together with the World Bank.”

Building for Peace links to the new World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025, and it is anchored on its pillars II and III by offering approaches to remaining engaged in situations of active conflict and violence and helping countries escape the fragility trap. The report also resonates strongly with the new Transitional Development Assistance strategy of BMZ, which has just been released.

The report will officially launch on July 15, 2020 as part of the virtual Fragility Forum 2020.

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Wide Variations in Post-COVID ‘Return to Normal’ Expectations

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London, UK, Covid-19 restrictions in place in Soho. IMF/Jeff Moore

A new IPSOS/World Economic Forum survey found that almost 60% expect a return to pre-COVID normal within the next 12 months. including 6% who think this is already the case, 9% who think it will take no more than three months, 13% four to six months, and 32% seven to 12 months (the median time). About one in five think it will take more than three years (10%) or that it will never happen (8%).

Views on when to expect a return to normal vary widely across countries: Over 70% of adults in Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, and mainland China are confident their life will return to pre-COVID normal within a year. In contrast, 80% in Japan and more than half in France, Italy, South Korea, and Spain expect it will take longer.

At a global level, expectations about how long it will take before one’s life can return to its pre-COVID normal and how long it will take for the pandemic to be contained are nearly identical. These findings suggest that people across the world consider that being able to return to “normal” life is entirely dependent on containing the pandemic.

An average of 45% of adults globally say their mental and emotional health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago. However, one in four say their mental health has improved since the beginning of the year (23%), about as many that say it has worsened (27%).

How long before coronavirus pandemic is contained?

Similar to life returning to pre-COVID normal, 58% on average across all countries and markets surveyed expect the pandemic to be contained within the next year, including 13% who think this is already the case or will happen within 3 months, 13% between four and six months and 32% between seven and 12 months (the median time in most markets).

Majorities in India, China, and Saudi Arabia think the pandemic is already contained or will be within the next 6 months. In contrast, four in five in Japan and more than half in Australia, France, Poland, Spain, and Sweden expect it will take more than a year.

Change in emotional and mental health since beginning of the pandemic about a year ago

On average across the 30 countries and markets surveyed, 45% of adults say their emotional and mental health has gotten worse since the beginning of the pandemic about a year ago, three times the proportion of adults who say it has improved (16%)

In 11 countries, at least half report a decline in their emotional and mental health with Turkey (61%), Chile (56%), and Hungary (56%) showing the largest proportions.

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African fisheries need reforms to boost resilience after Covid-19

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The African fisheries sector could benefit substantially from proper infrastructure and support services, which are generally lacking. The sector currently grapples with fragile value chains and marketing, weak management institutions and serious issues relating to the governance of fisheries resources.

These were the findings of a study that the African Natural Resources Centre conducted from March to May 2020. The centre is a non-lending department of the African Development Bank. The study focused on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in four countries – Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal and Seychelles. The countries’ economies depend heavily on marine fisheries. The fisheries sector is also a very large source of economic activity elsewhere in Africa. It provides millions of jobs all over the continent.

The study dwells on appropriate and timely measures that the four countries have taken to avoid severe supply disruptions, save thousands of jobs and maintain governance transparency amid the ongoing global uncertainty and crisis.

Infrastructure shortcomings include landing facilities, storage and processing capacity, social and sanitary equipment, water and power, ice production, and roads to access markets.

Based on the findings, researchers made recommendations to strengthen the resilience of Africa’s fisheries sector in the context of a prolonged crisis, and looking ahead to a post-Covid-19 recovery.

The report strongly advocates for:

– Increased acknowledgment of the essential role of marine fisheries stakeholders and the right of artisanal fishermen to access financial and material resources.

– Strengthening the collection of gender-disaggregated statistical data in a sector that employs a vast number of women and youth.

– Establishing infrastructure and support services at landing and processing sites of fishery products, with priority access to water.

– Investing in human capital to ensure high-level skills in the different areas of fisheries management.

– Improving governance frameworks by encouraging the private sector and civil society to participate in formulating sectoral policies and resource management measures.

The study recommends urgent reforms to make marine fisheries more resilient and enable the sector to contribute sustainably to the wealth of the continent’s coastal countries.

Marine fisheries are a crucial contributor to food security and quality of life in Africa. Good nutrition is a key factor to quality of life, and the marine fisheries sector supports the nutrition of more than 300 million people, the majority of whom are children, youth and women. It also provides more than 10 million direct and indirect jobs.

Dominated by artisanal fishing and traditional value chains, the fisheries sector in Africa is mainly informal and is rarely considered in public policies or in assessing the wealth of countries.

Like other sectors, the African fisheries sector has been severely hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Covid has affected supply markets and regional trade. This has resulted in substantial economic losses for most households that depend on fisheries.

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Top Trends Impacting Global Economy, Society and Technology

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The new technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, such as artificial intelligence (AI), the cloud and robotics, are changing the way we live, learn and do business at a rate unprecedented in human history. This seismic shift is playing out in a world characterized by unreliable political landscapes and increasing environmental instability.

Scenario planning in this environment can be very difficult for businesses, affecting their ability to plan for the future, and properly assess the risks and opportunities that may present themselves. The Technology Futures report, released in collaboration with Deloitte, provides leaders with data analysis tools to scenario plan and forecast future technology trends.

“The rapid pace of technological change, alongside the global crisis caused by COVID-19, means that leaders today need new tools to understand challenges and develop strategies in the face of an increasingly uncertain future. This report provides three new analytical tools for business leaders to think about the future in a dynamic environment,” said Ruth Hickin, Strategy and Impact Lead, Centre for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, World Economic Forum.

“We are delighted to collaborate with the World Economic Forum to take a disciplined look into the future, particularly as we emerge from a world-altering event, like COVID-19,” said Mike Bechtel, Managing Director and Chief Futurist, US Consulting, Deloitte, and lead author of the report. “We hope that by providing a clearer picture of how today’s nascent technologies will impact our future, we can play a meaningful part in driving innovation, collaboration and economic growth that improves life for all people.”

The report breaks down future trends into four categories for business leaders and provides some examples of what is likely to remain constant in the years ahead.

  • Information: With the volume of accessible data exploding and more of our personal lives lived online, the report projects the probable implications for remote learning, remote working and healthcare.
  • Locality: Since the onset of COVID-19, even more of our interpersonal interaction is virtual and physical experiences have dwindled. The report projects more niche, readily available virtual experiences available to consumers.
  • Economy: The report forecasts a growing likelihood that flexible and clean energy production will continue rising.
  • Education: Personalized education will likely grow, along with the availability of digitized and virtualized content.

In addition to strategic modelling, the report gives leaders a baseline history of how the Fourth Industrial Revolution has progressed. It highlights just how fast technology is evolving and outlines one way risk management could evolve to better address and adapt to it.

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