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As jobs crisis deepens, ILO warns of uncertain and incomplete labour market recovery

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The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated, while the highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels, even in the best scenario, and risks seeing continuing large scale job losses, warns the International Labour Organization (ILO).

According to the ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: 5th Edition , there was a 14 per cent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs (based on a 48-hour working week). This is a sharp increase on the previous Monitor’s estimate  (issued on May 27), of a 10.7 per cent drop (305 million jobs).

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 per cent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 per cent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 per cent), Arab States (13.2 per cent), and Africa (12.1 per cent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

Second half of 2020

The new Monitor presents three scenarios for recovery in the second half of 2020: baseline, pessimistic and optimistic. It stresses that the long-term outcome will depend on the future trajectory of the pandemic and government policy choices.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 per cent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to Q4 2019.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The consequence would be a fall in working hours of 11.9 per cent (340 million full-time jobs).

The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

Impact on women

The Monitor also finds that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequalities will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of COVID-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing. Globally, almost 510 million or 40 per cent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 per cent of men.

Women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission, and are also less likely to have social protection. The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Key challenges ahead

While countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead:

  • Finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes.
  • Implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained.
  • Protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.
  • Securing international solidarity and support, especially for emerging and developing countries.
  • Strengthening social dialogue and respect for rights.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” said ILO Director-General Guy Ryder.

“Next week the ILO is convening a high-level, virtual, Global Summit on COVID-19 and the World of Work . I hope that governments, workers and employers will use this opportunity to present and listen to innovative ideas, discuss lessons learned and come up with concrete plans to work together to implement a recovery that is job-rich, inclusive, equitable and sustainable. We must all step up to the challenge of building a better future of work,” he concluded.

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Africa Today

Investing in Key Sectors to Help Nigeriens Recover From the Health and Security Crises

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The Covid-19 pandemic crisis and the security situation continue to undermine the Nigerien economy, wiping out years of hard-won gains in poverty reduction.  A number of fiscal policy options are, however, available to help the country enhance public expenditure efficiency and increase its GDP by up to 2%. These are the findings of the World Bank’s latest economic and poverty update for Niger published today.

The report titled “Maximizing Public Expenditure Efficiency for Rebuilding Better” analyzes the impact of the health and security crises on Niger’s economy. The economy grew by 5.9% in 2019, but slowed to 3.6% in 2020, as a result of the combined impact of these crises. This sharp downturn increased poverty levels and pushed an additional 400,000 people into extreme poverty.

Nigeriens have been hard hit by the volatile security situation and these long months in the pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of children being kept out of school and deprived of proper health care, which will adversely affect their future,” notes Joelle Dehasse, World Bank Country Manager for Niger. “Turning this situation around will require massive and effective investments in human capital over the next few years.”

The report notes that these investments must be accompanied by bold structural and sectoral reforms aimed, among other things, at mobilizing more domestic resources, modernizing the administration, including the civil service, and promoting sound, prudent, and transparent government spending.

The projections for 2021 are nevertheless positive and economic growth is expected to rebound to 5.5%, driven by the reopening of the border with Nigeria, the resumption of large investment projects, and the normalization of several supply chains. However, these projections remain subject to the duration of the pandemic and the availability of vaccines, as well as to climate hazards and their impact on agricultural production and livelihoods.

The government of Niger has made tremendous progress in recent years in managing its public finances, giving high priority to social spending,” says Paolo Di Lorenzo, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author of the report. “However, public expenditure pressures remain high, partly due to the deteriorating security situation. Against this backdrop, the authorities should take further steps to improve domestic resource mobilization and public spending efficiency.”

The report’s authors recommend reprioritization across a number of key sectors in order to ensure Niger’s strong economic rebound.  These recommendations aim to redirect government revenues to basic social services and essential public infrastructure in order to maximize growth opportunities and social welfare. “Implementing the recommendations in the education sector will help improve spending and reallocate resources within the sector,” says Blaise Ehowe Nguem, Country Economist for Niger. “This will improve the quality of education, thereby reducing repetition and dropout rates.

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Ensuring a More Inclusive Future for Indonesia through Digital Technologies

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While Indonesia has one of the fastest growing digital economies in South East Asia, action is needed to ensure that all Indonesians, especially the most vulnerable, can access various digital technologies and services and realize the benefits, according to a new World Bank report Beyond Unicorns: Harnessing Digital Technologies for Inclusion in Indonesia.

Although the accelerated adoption of internet-enabled services during the pandemic is likely to boost the growth of the digital economy, the benefits of such development could be unequal.

“There are a whole host of opportunities to use digital technologies for promoting better healthcare delivery, and improving access among the underserved but these need to be built on a base of reliable and interoperable data systems,” said Minister of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, Budi Gunadi Sadikin. “The pandemic has generated an unprecedented urgency to make this a reality and has also created a momentum to expedite adoption of digital technologies.

For Indonesia to leverage digital technologies for greater inclusion, the new report emphasizes three policy priorities. The first is to boost digital connectivity and universalize access to high quality internet through efforts such as improving clarity of regulations around the sharing of telecom infrastructure. The second priority is to ensure that the digital economy works for all. This can be supported by better logistics and greater investment in relevant skills for the digital era. The third priority is using digital technologies to provide better public services, improve the quality of citizen-and-state interactions, and build trust in the digital world.

Despite the progress in expanding internet over the past decade, the basic connectivity gap remains a major hurdle in Indonesia. Almost half of the adult population is still without access while the urban-rural connectivity divide has not narrowed. In 2019, 62 percent of Indonesian adults in urban areas were connected to the internet compared to 36 percent in rural areas, while it was 20 percent and 6 percent respectively in 2011. Indonesians in the top 10 percent of the income distribution were five times more likely to be connected than those in the bottom 10 percent.

“Addressing the digital divide goes beyond efforts to reduce the connectivity gap,” said Satu Kahkonen, World Bank Country Director for Indonesia and Timor-Leste.“It will be crucial to help citizens develop the skills to maximize digital opportunities, especially for better jobs. At the same time, it is equally important for the government to address the challenges related to regulations and business environment to enable firms to innovate and compete effectively.”

The proportion of Indonesian adults with access to the internet has increased from 13 percent in 2011 to 51 percent in 2019. Indonesians who are connected to the internet are among the most engaged populations in the world spending as many as six hours a day online. In addition, a large segment of this population is ready to intensify their digital interactions with the government. However, fragmentation of data and an untapped potential of building a comprehensive digital ID framework off the existing ID system are some of the key challenges holding back the government from a broader digital transformation.

Digitally engaged Indonesians are now experiencing how technologies reshape their lives and commercial activities contributing to better consumer experience. However, the opportunities are often limited to a particular demographic group with relatively higher level of skills. Digital gig work is more remunerative than other forms of informal work but is concentrated among urban male workers predominantly in the transportation, storage, and communications sector.

The report recommends the development of a national digital ID framework to enable Indonesians to prove their identity securely online, including a law on personal data protection that is backed by an independent oversight body. It calls for a reorientation from a narrow focus on e-government to a more comprehensive national digital transformation agenda.

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Development

Moscow is in the Top7 Intelligent Communities in the world

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For the second time since 2017, Moscow made it to the final stage of the Intelligent Community Awards rating. It involves the cities that show best practices in the development of communications, experts training, the use of innovation, digital inclusion, the involvement of residents in city management, and the maintenance of sustainability principles. The prestigious international rating is issued annually by the Intelligent Community Forum.

The first stage, which took place in February this year, 21 cities from eight countries were selected. At the second stage, an international group of independent experts selected seven finalists. Alongside with to Moscow, there are cities from Canada, Australia, Vietnam and Brazil.

The experts noted the capital’s achievements in the development and use of communications, the residents’ involvement in the city government, the training of IT-specialists, enhancing digital literacy, as well as the support and implementation of innovations.

“To participate in the prestigious international rating, our team in cooperation with the specialists of the Moscow Innovation Agency prepared a detailed description of the most significant implemented digital projects in the field of communication development and use, resident participation in the city management, training IT-specialists, improving digital literacy, supporting and implementing innovations, as well as responsible consumption and protection of natural resources. Due to continuous development of the city’s digital technologies over the past four years, Moscow is among the Smart21 cities for the third time and for the second time is among top seven Smart Communities, which certainly shows that our work is highly appreciated by foreign specialists,” said Eduard Lysenko, the head of the Moscow Department of Information Technologies. 

The jury assessed not only how developed the urban infrastructure is, but also how effectively it is adapted to new economic challenges. In the field of broadband Internet access development, Moscow presented the project of the city Wi-Fi network. It includes more than 21 thousand points of access to free Internet, as well as 5G pilot zones launched jointly with telecom operators to estimate the use of fifth-generation communication technologies.

In the field of highly qualified personnel training in Moscow, the educational projects of the Moscow Government were noted. These projects are devoted to pre-vocational education, namely arranging industry specific training in Moscow schools, as well as to the voluntary qualification examination. It is organized jointly with the corporate partners to assess and select students according to employers’ requirements.

The project “My Career” by Moscow employment center was also presented among the important initiatives. Residents can get assistance in finding suitable vacancies, a professional career counselling, psychological support, as well as take part in employment-related trainings and webinars. The center focuses on the most vulnerable categories in the labor market: mothers of young children, youth, applicants of pre-retirement specialists, people with disabilities, low-income families.

The “Innovation” section presented “Moscow Accelerator” – the flagship project of the Moscow Department of Entrepreneurship and Innovation Development, aimed at scaling innovative solutions in promising industries in partnership with major corporations – market leaders. Another project in this area is the Moscow Innovation Cluster. It was created for the development of innovative organizations, projects and cooperation between the city and large companies, industry, small and medium-sized businesses, educational and scientific organizations. The online platform “i.moscow” provides opportunities for interaction between cluster participants.

“The Moscow innovation ecosystem” is also in the rating. The program allows the developers to test their technologies at urban and commercial sites before they are released on the market, and the authorities and potential customers can evaluate their effectiveness.

The project “Moscow Longevity” represents the field of inclusion development, creation of intellectual communities and improvement of people’s access to digital technologies. The project is aimed at creating a network of free leisure for the older generation of Muscovites and expanding the opportunities for their participation in cultural, educational, physical fitness, health and other activities was noted.

The Smart City hall offers a visual demonstration of new technologies for residents of all ages. This is a permanent exhibition of Smart City technologies located on the territory of VDNKh. You can visit the hall for free, and guided tours are offered several times a day.

In the hall there is a 5G democenter, which is part of the capital’s pilot innovation testing program. Several technological projects involving the fifth-generation communication networks are already being tested at this site. This is wireless optical communication in 5G standard, VR and AR in architecture and construction, virtual reality training via 5G, computer vision for drones and access control with remote temperature measurement.

The involvement of citizens in improving the quality of life is achieved through the digital ecosystem of interaction between the city and residents. The Active Citizen project allows every resident to take part in voting on topical issues of city development, the Our City portal allows you to report a problem in housing services and amenities, and the City of Ideas enables you to offer your ideas for crowdsourcing.

The city also presented social projects. Among them are the charity service on the mos.ru portal, which helps residents make donations to verified Moscow non-profit organizations and foundations, and the “Search for Lost and Found Animals” service which helps find a lost pet. A number of projects are aimed at environmental sustainability. Namely a set of services aimed at reducing water consumption in Moscow (a service for transmitting readings of water meters, an interactive test and the project “The Price of Water” based on AR-technology), as well as the portal “MosEcoMonitoring”. It allows residents to monitor the condition and quality of air in their city or district online in real time.

Intelligent Community Forum is a non-governmental organization headquartered in New York. ICF rating has been issued since 2005. The current leader of the Intelligent Community Awards is Tallinn. The new leader will be announced in autumn.

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