Chinese strings of pearls in the Mediterranean are gradually forming a huge strategic Chinese garland of Pearls. It is surely going to be an increasingly tightening grip over the NATO bastion and EU security structure. The absence of collective EU economic vision so far and the NATO division are conveniently facilitating the Chinese preponderance in their waters and security hub. The Brexit has already weakened the stature of the Union which is a favourable condition to Chinese unabated expansion and influence. The evolving ‘garland of pearls’ in the Mediterranean can become the scene of Chinese ‘Anaconda Policy’- surround and squeeze.
Chinese hold on such strategic ports as Piraeus in Greece, Trieste and Genoa in Italy and string of six ports in eastern Mediterranean- Haifa and Ashdod in Israel, Tripoli in Lebanon and Latakia and Tartous in Syria and Kumport in Turkey has changed the strategic balance in the region. Besides, there are many more ports in the region trying to attract the Chinese investment. These include Port Said, Marsaxlokk, Tangier and Casablanca in southern side of Mediterranean and Valencia, Marseille, Genoa, Trieste and Piraeus in the northern side. An overview makes it a garland of Chinese pearls in the Mediterranean put together the Chinese strings of pearls all around this Western strategic water. This evolving strategic loop is sure to mitigate the western security dominance over this water and therefore expand Chinese influence in the countries around specially Europe.
This trend of increasing Chinese investment has raised numerous questions and unsettled the European Union and its policy. Any effective response can be made only with correct understanding of implications it involves. How much it is unavoidable or acceptable given the strategic nature of the ports must be perused properly. On 10th April, 2019, the new EU FDI Screening Regulation has come into force to ensure security and public order in Europe in the face of the foreign direct investment in the Eurozone. The first EU level coordination mechanism will be fully operational in all member states on 11th, October, 2020.
In the wake pandemic the European Commission on 25th March, 2020 issued guideline to ensure effective foreign investment screening against the economic vulnerability during the crisis. It aims at preserving critical assets and strategic companies like infrastructure which is fundamental for public order and security without undermining the general open foreign investment policy. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission President emphasised that “As in any crisis, when our industrial and corporate assets can be under stress, we need to protect our security and economic sovereignty. The EU is and will remain an open market for foreign direct investment. But this openness is not unconditional.”
Both EU and NATO are aware of the growing need of an enhanced cooperation as the key response to multiple security challenge from new Russia, turmoil in West Asia, cyberwar to terrorism. The list has formally added China also as a systemic rival and competitor. The recognition of cooperation between these two organizations gained attention towards end of the 1990s. It was around 2000 only that initial European reservation mainly that of UK and France were overcome and joint security vision and action of EU and NATO began. From then onwards, the cooperation was continuously buttressed and shaped through 2002 Berlin Plus arrangements, 2010Lisbon Summit and the Role of NATO in the security architecture of the EU, 2016 Warsaw and 2018 EU-NATO, Brussels Joint Declaration have boosted the cooperation for security of the transatlantic community based on their shared threat perception and response requirements. The Strategic Concept of ‘Active Engagement, Modern Defence’ of 2010 underlined and espoused the values and strategic objective for the next decade in transforming security environment with necessary political and military response. The core areas of cooperation are capacity-building of the alliance and partners, defence-industrial issues, military mobilization, promotion of peace and security agenda. Despite the national rivalry in Europe and the transatlantic divisions which came to fore in the London Summit, December, 2019, the NATO 2030 launched on 8th June, 2020 has again started re-building the cooperation needed for the shared security of the transatlantic community.
But the EU response has not been effective so far in the face of the growing transatlantic schism on various issues. The recent blow has come with the concern over possible withdrawal of US troops from Germany to be deployed in Poland. It was announced by US president Donald Trump on 15th June, 2020, accusing Germany as “delinquent” in NATO contribution and unfair trade with United States. The German Foreign Minister, Heiko Mass, has said “We think that the US presence in Germany is important for the security not just of Germany but also for the security of the United States and especially for the security of Europe” during his visit to Poland. However, the critical response came from the German Defense Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer when he said that, “NATO is not a trade organization and security is not a commodity. NATO is formed on solidarity, on trust. And it is based on common values and common interests,” on 16th June, 2020 in Berlin.
Such growing cleavage in the transatlantic alliance is a serious rift in the face of the Chinese strategic rise in the Mediterranean ports through investment and management control. These Chinese moves under its BRI vision are primarily geo-economic in its declared pursuit but its long term strategic and security dimension are natural corollary. Such move is bound to erode the necessary faith NATO has been built on and therefore its deterrence capacity watered down against traditional challenge from Russia or new formidable challenge of China.
The matter has assumed serious dimension with strategic closeness of Russia and China. The first ever joint naval exercise code-named “Joint Sea-2015(17th -21st May) of the two in the Mediterranean was important as it was conducted far away from their naval bases in a show of their readiness in sea areas of the world and in the strategic water of the West in particular. In July, 2017, a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) flotilla en route to their Joint Exercise with Russian Navy in Baltic Sea, conducted a brief live-fire drill in the Mediterranean Sea to hone their combat skills. Besides, Six-say joint defence operations, the “Joint Sea-2019”featuring joint air defence drills, joint anti-submarine drills and joint submarine rescue drills is important development in this regard. In December (27th -30th) 2019, China-Russia joint naval exercise was conducted along with Iran in the Gulf of Oman with the declared aim of world peace and maritime security in the region.
Given the increasing numbers, frequency and different locations of joint naval exercises of China and Russia it has assumed the character of a de facto military alliance which has surely exacerbated the security concerns of the European and Mediterranean NATO community and their security structure. The BRI deals are basically aimed at promotion of trade and related infrastructure development. But this economic clout naturally spurs the strategic influence and military advantage. In July, 2017, a Chinese naval fleet came to the port Piraeus on friendly visit as a promotion of their growing friendship and cooperation. Such developments will keep on increasing and become normal practices in the Chinese held ports of the Mediterranean Sea.
Amidst these naval developments, there is growing conflicting policies of the NATO members and hostile encounters of their navies in the Mediterranean are making the matter worse. When the French sailors were chasing a suspicious cargo carrying arms for Libya, the Turkish frigate warned them with missile strike- a matter of grave weakness for NATO and security projection of its members. This is the result of their rival policies in the Libyan conflict.
EU is concerned about the growing US-China competition emerging like a new cold war and looking for options to avoid falling into this binary. The launch of outline of NATO 2030 on 8th June, 2020 made it apparent that the rise of China has fundamentally changed the balance of power and a new competition for economic and technological hegemony. The EU-China summit, 2019 joint statement has committed for EU-China strategic partnership and expressed support for multilateralism and rule-based trade to build their economic relationship. Thus the EU and China video meet or conference on 22nd June, 2020 assumed significance amidst rising US-China tension as the European Union is pursuing a non-confrontational policy towards China to remain a relevant factor in the emerging world order.
Moreover, the strategic loop of China made up of its strategic ports pose an unprecedented serious challenge to the weakening EU and loosening NATO. Therefore, there is an urgent need to fix the fissures in the NATO and division in EU to face China and its expansion with strength and matching strategy before the Chinese loop strangulate it and impose its irresistible force of influence.
Hungary’s Victor Orban uses soccer to project Greater Hungary and racial exclusivism
Hungary didn’t qualify for the Qatar World Cup, but that hasn’t stopped Prime Minister Victor Orban from exploiting the world’s current focus on soccer to signal his Putinesque definition of central European borders as defined by civilization and ethnicity rather than internationally recognized frontiers.
Mr. Orban drew the ire of Ukraine and Romania for wearing to a local Hungarian soccer match a scarf depicting historical Hungary, which also includes chunks of Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia.
It was the second time in a matter of months that Mr. Orban spelt out his irredentist concept of geography that makes him a member of a club of expansionist leaders that includes Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping, Israel’s Benyamin Netanyahu, and members of the Indian power elite, who define their countries’ borders in civilisational rather than national terms.
Speaking in July to university summer camp students in Romania, which is home to 1.2 million ethnic Hungarians, Mr. Orban insisted that “Hungary has…national…and even European ambitions. This is why…the motherland must stand together, and Transylvania and the other areas in the Carpathian Basin inhabited by Hungarians must stand together.”
Responding to Ukrainian and Romanian objections to his scarf, Mr. Orban insisted that “soccer is not politics. Do not read things into it that are not there. The Hungarian national team belongs to all Hungarians, wherever they live!”
Hungary has accused Ukraine of restricting the right of an estimated 150,000 ethnic Hungarians to use Hungarian in education because of a 2017 law that curbs the usage of minority languages in schools.
Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger presented Mr. Orban with a new scarf at a recent summit of Central European leaders in a twist of satire. “I noticed that Viktor Orban has an old scarf, so I gave him a new one today,” Mr. Heger said on Facebook.
Mr. Orban’s territorial ambitions may pose a lesser threat than his supremacist and racist attitudes.
Those attitudes constitute building blocks of a cvilisationalist world that he shares with Christian nationalists and Republicans in the United States, as well as a new Israeli coalition government that Mr. Netanyahu is forming. Mr. Putin has used similar arguments to justify his invasion of Ukraine.
In contrast to Mr. Putin and potentially Mr. Netanyahu, depending on how the Biden administration responds to his likely coalition, Mr. Orban is on a far tighter leash regarding territorial ambition as a member of NATO and the European Union.
As a result, far more insidious is what amounts to a mainstreaming of racism and supremacism by men like Mr. Orban, Mr. Netanyahu, and former US President Donald Trump, who consistently mainstream norms of decency and propriety by violating them with impunity.
Speaking a language shared by American Christian nationalists and Mr. Netanyahu’s potential coalition partners, Mr. Orban rejected in his July speech a “mixed-race world” defined as a world “in which European peoples are mixed together with those arriving from outside Europe.”
The prime minister asserted that mixed-race countries “are no longer nations: They are nothing more than conglomerations of peoples” and are no longer part of what Mr. Orban sees as “the Western world.” The prime minister stopped short of identifying those countries, but the United States and Western European nations would fit the bill.
In a similar vein, Mr. Trump recently refused to apologise for having dinner with Ye, a rapper previously known as Kanye West, who threatened he would go “death on con 3 on Jewish people,” and Nick Fuentes, a 24-year old pro-Russian trafficker in Holocaust denial and white supremacism.
Mr. Trump hosted the two men at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida resort, just after launching his 2024 presidential election campaign. Mr. Ye “was really nice to me,” Mr. Trump said.
Candidates backed by Mr. Trump in last month’s US midterm elections, including Hershel Walker, who is competing in next week’s runoff in Georgia, have similarly felt comfortable associating themselves with Messrs. Ye and Fuentes.
Mr. Fuentes asserted days before the dinner that “Jews have too much power in our society. Christians should have all the power, everyone else very little,” while Mr. Ye’s manager, Milo Yannopoulos, announced that “we’re done putting Jewish interests first.”
Mr. Yonnopoulos added that “it’s time we put Jesus Christ first again in this country. Nothing and no one is going to get in our way to make that happen.”
Featured on notorious far-right radio talk show host Alex Jones’ Infowars, Mr. Ye professed his admiration of Adolf Hitler. “I like Hitler,” Mr. Ye said, listing the various reasons he admired the notorious Nazi leader.
Mr. Netanyahu’s likely coalition partners seek to legislate discriminatory distinctions between adherents of different Jewish religious trends, hollow out Israeli democracy, introduce an apartheid-like system, disband the Palestinian Authority, expel Palestinians “disloyal to Israel” in what would amount to ethnic cleansing, deprive women of their rights, and re-introduce homophobia.
Avraham Burg, an Israeli author, politician, businessman, and scion of a powerful leader of a defunct once mainstream religious political party, warned in 2018 that Messrs. Orban, Trump, and Netanyahu “are the leaders of paranoia and phobia.”
Mr. Burg cautioned that they represent “a global phenomenon that crosses all boundaries, ethnic, racial, or religious, gathering into a tribal ghetto that is smaller than the modern state, which is diverse and inclusive of all its citizens. Their fierce antagonism to the foundations of democracy and the attempt to do detriment to as many accomplishments and benefits of the open society as possible are evidence of inherent weaknesses and real existential fears.”
Mr. Burg’s dire vision is even more a reality today than when he spoke out four years ago.
Strong will to enhance bilateral relations between Serbia and Pakistan
Although the Republic of Serbia and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan are two sovereigns, independent states, with different cultures, religions, languages, histories, and ethnicities. One is located in Europe and the other in Asia. Yet, there exist so many similarities and commonalities, which provide a strong basis and convergence of interests.
Both, Serbia and Pakistan, are developing countries and struggling to improve their national economies and the standard of life of respective nations. Both nations were victims of the Western world and sanctions. Ugly media has been projecting a distorted image of both countries. Hindrances created by Superpowers in the path of development are a common phenomenon in both cases.
People in both countries are hardworking, strong, resilient, and capable of surviving in harsh circumstances. Both have demonstrated in the past that they can resist pressures from any superpower. Both have learned the lessons from past bitter experiences and are determined not to repeat the same in the future.
In my recent visit to the Republic of Serbia, I noticed that there exists a fair awareness in Serbian regarding Pakistan. I came into a cross with the general public and common people and they know a lot about Pakistan. They have shown strong feelings for Pakistan. There exists immense goodwill for Pakistan among Serbian youth.
Both countries are in the process of industrialization and promoting trade. Currently, both countries are earning from the export of workforce and human resources. Serbian youth are working in Western Europe and sending back foreign exchange. And Pakistan workforce finds a convenient destination in the Middle East for earning more and sending back foreign exchange to Pakistan. But, both nations have the potential to earn through export and foreign trade.
Serbia is known as the gateway to Europe and Pakistan is the gateway to Oil-rich Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, Central Asia, and Eurasia. Both countries can utilize each other for re-export too.
Both countries are far away from each other but, a strong bond of friendship and mutual understanding is admirable. Based on the convergence of interests, we can cooperate with each other. Especially can help each other in their areas of weaknesses and benefit from each other’s strengths.
Serbia has vast cultivatable land and is rich in water resources, very niche in the agriculture sector. Whereas its population is limited to only 7 million approximately. While Pakistan is 250 million population and a strong workforce in the agriculture sector. Both nations can positively collaborate and cooperate in the Agriculture sector.
The Republic of Serbia is in the process of Industrialization, especially in the automotive sector, whereas, Pakistan has a strong base for industrialization and is rich in the technical and skilled workforce. Pakistan has established a rich supply chain for industrialization and Serbia can benefit from Pakistan’s strength.
Science, Technology, Research, Innovation, and Higher Education is the important area where both can benefit from collaboration and cooperation. Pakistan has world-ranked Universities, recognized globally with English as a medium of study, and can meet the demand of Serbian youth. Whereas Serbia has the edge in the IT sector, Pakistani youth can be beneficiaries of Serbian facilities.
However, to achieve the real benefits from each other’s strengths, there is a need to do a lot of homework. There is a dire need to promote people-to-people contact and mutual visit at all levels. Scholars, intellectuals, academia, and media can play a vital role in bringing both nations closer.
Governments in both countries may take appropriate policy measures to strengthen the relations like relaxing visa regimes, removing tax barriers, and introducing attractive policies to each other’s nationals in various fields of life.
To promote trade, Free Trade Agreement (FTA) can be signed among them and formulate a trade policy benefitting each other. Similarly, investment mechanisms need to be devised to attract investment from each other country.
Media has a long-lasting impact and collaboration between two nations in Media will greatly help to build a positive narrative of both countries and simultaneously need to counter negativism in the ugly media in some countries over-engaged in distorting our image.
There is a strong will to enhance our bilateral relationship between the two nations, and whenever there is a will, there is a way. I am optimistic that bilateral relations will grow exponentially in the days to come.
The Economist: “Europe looks like… a sucker”
Don’t be fooled by the rush of good news from Europe in the past few weeks. A brutal economic squeeze will pose a test of Europe’s resilience in 2023 and beyond, – predicts “The Economist”.
There is a growing fear that the recasting of the global energy system, American economic populism and geopolitical rifts threaten the long-run competitiveness of the European Union and non-members, including Britain.
Energy prices are down from the summer and a run of good weather means that gas storage is nearly full. But the energy crisis still poses dangers.
Gas prices are six times higher than their long-run average. On November 22nd Russia threatened to throttle the last operational pipeline to Europe. Europe’s gas storage will need to be refilled once again in 2023, this time without any piped Russian gas whatsoever.
The war is also creating financial vulnerabilities. Energy inflation is spilling over into the rest of Europe’s economy, creating an acute dilemma for the European Central Bank. It needs to raise interest rates to control prices. But if it goes too far it could destabilize the Eurozone’s weaker members, not least indebted Italy.
Too many of Europe’s industrial firms, especially German ones, have relied on abundant energy inputs from Russia. The prospect of severed relations with Russia, structurally higher costs and a decoupling of the West and China has meant a reckoning in many boardrooms.
That fear has been amplified by America’s economic nationalism which threatens to draw activity across the Atlantic in a whirlwind of subsidies and protectionism. President Joe Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ involves $400 bn of handouts for energy, manufacturing and transport and includes make-in-America provisions.
In many ways the scheme resembles the industrial policies that China has pursued for decades. As the other two pillars of the world economy become more interventionist and protectionist, Europe, with its quaint insistence on upholding World Trade Organization rules on free trade, looks like a sucker.
Many bosses warn that the combination of expensive energy and American subsidies leaves Europe at risk of mass deindustrialization.
Compared with its pre-COVID GDP trajectory, Europe has done worse than any other economic bloc. Of the world’s 100 most valuable firms, only 14 are European.
America’s financial and military support for Ukraine vastly exceeds Europe’s, and America resents the EU’s failure to pay for its own security.
America is irritated by Europe’s economic torpor and its failure to defend itself; Europe is outraged by America’s economic populism.
…High-level relationship – where will it all lead to?
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