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The Ripple Effects of the Syrian Conflict in the Mashreq Region

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A decade of conflict in Syria led to region-wide economic and social fallout across Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, adding urgency to the call for a region-wide response strategy, according to a new World Bank Report. The ripple effects of the Syrian conflict include increased poverty rates, higher debt burdens, deteriorating labor markets, especially for youth and women, and more restricted access to public services such as health care and electricity.

The Fallout of the War: The Regional Consequences of the Conflict in Syria estimates that the conflict in Syria has been solely responsible for annual reductions in economic growth of 1.2 percentage points (pp) in Iraq, 1.6 pp in Jordan, and 1.7 pp in Lebanon in the last decade. The conflict also drove up poverty rates by 6.0 pp in Iraq, 3.9 pp in Jordan, and 7.1 pp in Lebanon, while simultaneously precipitating the largest refugee crisis since World War II. At the peak, refugees exceeded a quarter of the local populations in Jordan, Lebanon, and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the highest refugee concentration in the world.

The fallout of the conflict was transmitted through multiple channels. With decreasing transit trade through Syria and stalling service exports like tourism, the marginal effect of the trade shock on GDP reached –3.1 pp in Jordan and –2.9 pp in Lebanon. In comparison, the demographic shock (refugee arrivals) boosted GDP by 0.9 pp in both countries by increasing aggregate demand and labor supply. However, these GDP effects are only a relatively small share of the overall impact.

Despite governments’ best efforts and support from the international community and humanitarian organizations, conditions on the ground remain difficult in the Mashreq. With weak social safety nets, Iraqi, Jordanian, and Lebanese citizens are largely unprotected against economic shocks. Host communities and refugees alike suffer from inadequate services, often leading to short-term alternatives like diesel generators and water transported by truck, which can be both unhealthy and up to three times costlier than grid options. Refugee children receive 5.4 fewer years of education than their host country peers in Lebanon, and 3.7 fewer years in Jordan, which is largely driven by low enrollment in secondary and tertiary levels. According to the report’s estimates, the human capital gain from closing these gaps could add to GDP growth by 1.1 % in Lebanon and 0.4% in Jordan.

The overall economic impact of the Syrian conflict on Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon has been disproportionately high compared to similar situations elsewhere in the world in the last few decades” said Saroj Kumar Jha, World Bank Regional Director for the Mashreq. “Looking forward, the international community can support the stability and prosperity of the Mashreq much more effectively through a strategy that combines a medium-term perspective, instead of quick fixes, and a regional focus that builds on cross-border linkages and coordinates a response across borders.”

According to the report, the complex political economy dynamics in the region have, so far, limited building better institutional resilience, which could help mitigate the fallout from the Syrian crisis more effectively. A persistent short-termism has led to costly and ineffective service provision, lost economic opportunities, and underfunded programs.

“This report harnesses numerous data sources, statistical techniques, and a suite of economic models to produce the most systematic analysis to date of the regional ramifications from the conflict in Syria,” said Harun Onder, the lead author of the report. “This approach helped us to isolate the specific role played by the Syrian war in a region where overlapping shocks, more recently the oil price collapse and the COVID-19 pandemic, have been the norm, rather than exceptions.”

Going forward, the report argues that a medium-term strategy is needed to address structural problems and mitigate the adverse effects of the conflict through enhancing social safety nets; improving service access for all, and investing in state capacity. The report also argues that adopting a regional focus, one that focuses on building on cross-border connectivity, can deliver better outcomes, as both problems and opportunities cross borders in the Mashreq. However, this approach requires a concerted effort and supra-national commitment to stability and prosperity at the regional level.

The Fallout of War is the third report in the World Bank’s innovative series examining the human, physical, social, and economic destruction from the conflict in Syria. It builds on The Toll of War, issued in 2017, which documented the economic and social impact of the conflict inside Syria, and The Mobility of Displaced Syrians, issued in 2019, which analyzed the spontaneous returns of Syrian refugees to determine the key factors that influenced their decisions.

The Fallout of War will be officially launched on June 24, 2020 as part of the upcoming “Fourth Brussels Conference on Supporting the Future of Syria and the Region.”

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Investment in Upskilling Could Boost Global GDP by $6.5 trillion by 2030

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Accelerated investment in upskilling and reskilling of workers could add at least $6.5 trillion to global GDP, create 5.3 million (net) new jobs by 2030 and help develop more inclusive and sustainable economies worldwide. These are the key findings of a World Economic Forum report published today.

The report, Upskilling for Shared Prosperity, authored in collaboration with PwC, finds that accelerated skills enhancement would ensure that people have the experience and skills needed for the jobs created by the Fourth Industrial Revolution – boosting global productivity by 3%, on average, by 2030. The newly created jobs will be those that are complemented and augmented – rather than replaced – by technology.

“Even before COVID-19, the rise of automation and digitization was transforming global job markets, resulting in the very urgent need for large-scale upskilling and reskilling. Now, this need has become even more important. And – as we highlight in our new insight report with the Forum – upskilling is key to stimulating the economic recovery from COVID-19 and creating more inclusive and sustainable economies. To make this happen, greater public-private collaboration will be key. We’re delighted to be part of the Reskilling Revolution platform, which will help foster greater action, collaboration, accountability and progress on this important topic,” said Bob Moritz, Global Chairman, PwC.

One year of impact through the Reskilling Revolution

The research on upskilling supports the work of the Reskilling Revolution platform. Launched at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters in January 2020, the Reskilling Revolution set out to provide better education, skills and work to one billion people by 2030. In its first year, despite the pandemic and economic downturn, the platform’s initiatives are estimated to have benefitted more than 50 million people globally through rapid reskilling, upskilling and redeployment.

“Millions of jobs have been lost through the pandemic, while accelerating automation and digitization mean that many are unlikely to return. We need new investments in the jobs of tomorrow, the skills people need for moving into these new roles and education systems that prepare young people for the new economy and society. Initiatives like the Reskilling Revolution hold the key to converting ideas into action and creating the necessary coordination between the public and the private sectors. There is no time to waste,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum.

After focusing in 2020 on setting up systems for rapid reskilling and upskilling – particularly vital in the midst of the pandemic – the initiative will continue to scale up its skilling work in its second year, while expanding its work in education, job creating investments and work standards.

“Investment in job creation, particularly climate-friendly jobs, is key to ensuring a Reskilling Revolution, and concerted action by governments and by business is needed urgently,” said Sharan Burrow, General-Secretary, International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC).

Developing a common language for skills

The absence of a shared language for skills poses a significant obstacle for the reskilling and upskilling agenda. An additional report by the World Economic Forum, also launched today, provides a common taxonomy for skills to help employers, government and learning providers more efficiently match talent to jobs and learning opportunities.

The Global Skills Taxonomy: A Common Language to Unlock the Reskilling Revolution includes specific definitions and categorizations of skills, creating a common taxonomy for the labour market to adopt, from online training providers and universities to hiring managers in companies and education ministries. It consists of an interactive taxonomy with definitions as well as recommendations for adoption to inform hiring, reskilling and redeployment practices in the workplaces of the future.

More about the Reskilling Revolution

The Reskilling Revolution works through three action tracks: Forum-led initiatives that engage the public and the private sectors in joint initiatives; public-sector and multistakeholder initiatives; and company-led initiatives.

The Closing the Skills Gap country accelerators are developing and implementing national strategies for reskilling and upskilling. Accelerators are active in 10 countries with Georgia, Greece and Turkey having recently established accelerators, and a further six accelerators under discussion. Commitments made by established and planned accelerator countries and their member companies to reskill and upskill their employees are expected to reach up to 47 million individuals.

Comprised of major online learning providers, including Udacity and Coursera, and reaching 200 million learners worldwide, the Forum-led Skills Consortium aims to elevate online learning as an accepted route to employment to provide more opportunities for reskilling, upskilling and redeployment. Building on this success, the Chief Learning Officer Community brings together industry leaders in learning and development to transform workplace learning for 2.9 million employees.

In the year ahead, the Consortium, the community of Chief Human Resources Officers and Chief Learning Officers of the Reskilling Revolution platform will work on the adoption of the skills taxonomy to help make skills the key currency of the labour market and create greater efficiencies in the labour market.

The Preparing for the Future of Work industry accelerators are estimated to have reached nearly 8 million employees to prepare them with future-oriented skills. In addition, the Chief Human Resource Officer Community brings together companies’ HR leaders to share best practices and mobilize action to provide better jobs and skills to a further 4 million employees.

Multistakeholder coalitions that joined the Reskilling Revolution, led by UNICEF and the ILO among others, have been focused on delivering better education and skills, through equalizing access to digital learning (mass teacher reskilling, or identifying, supporting and amplifying new approaches.

Company-led initiatives are helping future-proof their workforces, even in an economically constrained environment. Reskilling Revolution companies are leading new approaches to support their workforces, and their supply chains and communities through access to education, skills and better jobs. In addition to founding members of the platform, such as Adecco Group, LinkedIn and ManpowerGroup, the initiative recently welcomed new partner commitments from Royal Bank of Canada, Unilever and Verizon.

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Private markets forecast to grow to $4.9tn globally by 2025 and make up 10% of global AuM

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Assets under management (AuM) in private markets to expand by between $4.2 trillion and $5.5 trillion in the years up to 2025 in worst/best case scenarios for economic recovery, according to new analysis from PwC.

The report, Prime time for private markets: The new value creation playbook, examines prospects for four primarily illiquid asset classes of private equity (including venture capital), infrastructure, real estate and private credit across a range of scenarios for 2019-2025. 

The report projects significant growth for the value of private markets of $5.5tn (best case), $4.9tn (base case) and $4.2tn (worst case) depending on how global economic conditions respond to the disruption caused by Covid-19.

Will Jackson-Moore, global leader for private equity, real assets and sovereign funds at PwC says,‘The report highlights the continued emergence of private markets as a fast growing and highly impactful portion of global capital markets. Investors continue to look to the sector to deliver the yields that lower risk and more liquid asset classes struggle to match. 

‘Yet this is also an opportunity for private markets to take a lead on ESG and net zero commitments and demonstrate the impact they can make in public perception beyond public markets.’

Opportunities across asset classes

Even in the worst case scenario of a prolonged recession, the projections look ahead to growth of almost 50%  up to 2025.

While private equity is very much “the asset class of the moment” there is evidence that there are significant opportunities for growth and returns in areas such as real estate, infrastructure and private credit.

Will Jackson-Moore says,‘While opportunities for growth are out there, it is important to emphasise that returns will be harder to find and be more aggressively fought for. Managers will need to be innovative in their approach to value creation and respond swiftly to changing investors and governmental expectations as economies recover from the effects of the crisis.’

ESG and going beyond financial return

Will Jackson-Moore says,‘Our research highlights the extent to which financial return is no longer the sole driver of private markets growth. ESG and Net Zero commitments now represent a significant source of value preservation and creation. 

‘Private market managers need to respond by looking at how to apply an ESG lens to investment strategy and product development. Whether it is in impact turnaround initiatives in which ‘dirty’ production facilities are turned green, or building strong commitment to diversity and inclusion at your organisation, these matters are no longer an overlay.’

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Key Reforms Needed to Grow Albania’s E-commerce Sector

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A new World Bank Albania E-Commerce Diagnostic highlights key reforms needed to better leverage digital trade as opportunity for economic development.

E-commerce can be an important asset for Albania. Online sales channels allow businesses to reach more customers, at home and abroad. Customers gain from greater convenience and more choice. Sectors enabling e-commerce can create new jobs, including in technology companies, logistics and online payments.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, online markets are playing a particularly important role by allowing economic life to continue despite social distancing. The 2020 World Bank Enterprise Survey reveals that almost 20 percent of Albanian firms surveyed reported having either started or increased online business activity during the crisis.

To help Albania seize the digital trade opportunity, this new diagnostic identifies a roadmap of critical reforms in logistics and customs;  digital connectivity; online payments; private sector capabilities and skills; and the e-commerce regulatory framework.

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