The day of reckoning has now come for the Italian economic crisis, worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic and the related lockdown.
As the Italian Statistical Institute (ISTAT) showed, 34% of Italian production has been negatively affected. The activity and operations of 2.2 million companies, accounting for 49% of the total, have also been suspended, but 65% of the entire export business has been closed.
This means that Italy’s economic system is changing.
All this has stopped – hopefully temporarily – the work of 7.4 million employees (44.3% of the total number of private employees not directly working in offices) and, along with the fear of coronavirus, it has obviously had a snowball effect, which has soon greatly reduced the confidence rate of consumers and businesses.
Production has been stopped for 34.2% of companies and the same holds true for 27.1% of value added.
Therefore, considering the general lockdown envisaged, the fall in jobs currently affects 385,000 workers, 46,000 of whom are irregular, to the tune of 9 billion euros of wages.
The most affected sectors have been catering and accommodation (-11.3%), logistics, transport and trade (-2.7%).
With sectoral closures envisaged until June, the overall reduction in value added amounts to 4.5%.
The employees affected by definitive closures will be 900,000 approximately, 103,000 of whom are irregular, for a total amount of 20.8 billion euros of lost wages.
That is where the complex and long-standing E.U. issue comes in.
If we consider all the possible and already proposed E.U. funds, we are talking about 100 billion euro of resources, while it is very likely that Italy may have a “firepower” to generate credits and funds up to 300 billion euros. It would need them all and probably they will not be enough.
We should also consider the future 172 billion euros from the Recovery Fund.
The Conte II government has so far mobilized – albeit with badly drafted, superficial and even naïve rules and regulations – about 75 billion euros of resources, all based on budget deficit.
The so-called Cura Italia decree of last March “mobilized” 25 billion euros and 55 billion euros were mobilized with the recovery Decree of last May.
Certainly not everyone has yet reached this money – sometimes not even many of them. The funding to companies -shambolic and all foolishly used through the banking system, which is structurally inefficient – reminds us of what a great Lombard entrepreneur used to say years ago: “What do we industrialists ask of the State? That it gets out of the way”.
The European Funds from SURE, the European Investment Bank and the European Stability Mechanism will mobilize about 270 billion euros throughout the European Union, with a share for Italy equal to 96 billion euros.
They are certainly not enough to rebuild the production system and compensate for damage.
SURE is currently worth around 20 billion euros for Italy alone, but only to finance the Redundancy Fund, while 40 billion euros will be the Italian share of the 200 billion funds provided by the EIB only for SMEs.
Therefore, Italy will go into debt – albeit on favourable terms -but not to get what it really needs.
The rest will certainly have to be borrowed on the financial markets and with our own public debt securities which, however, at maturity will be secondary to the ESM or EIB loans.
Another key problem is that if and when – but it will happen anyway- the standard rules of the Stability Pact are back in place, we will be left with a very high debt, but still liable to all the reprimands of both the “markets” and the E.U. which, at that juncture, may also revise the terms and conditions of the loans already in place.
For Italy, the Recovery Fund could make available the above stated 172 billion euros, of which 90 billion of loans and 81 billion of grants.
At the end of 2020, however, the Italian public debt will rise by as many as 15 points of GDP.
Why? Firstly, because the denominator will obviously be lower: the economic downturn resulting from the coronavirus crisis will be much wider than the one occurred in 2008, with a very severe 5.3% decrease compared to the GDP recorded in 2008.
Currently Confindustria, the General Confederation of Italian Industry, estimates a 6% drop in Gross Domestic Product, while Goldman Sachs estimates a 11.6% fall.
Obviously there is also the inevitable increase in public spending, which is another public debt problem, hoping that speculation will stay calm – which is unlikely. There will also be a sharp drop in tax revenue.
For example, it is estimated that 20% of the professionals registered with professionals Rolls and Associations risks being forced out of the market. It is no small matter. Other associations in the sector provide similar data.
Hence, if we assume a 6% GDP reduction, the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise from the 135% of late 2019 to at least over 153% at the end of 2020.
With an11% GDP fall, the debt-to-GDP ratio in late 2020 would be equal to 163%.
Obviously, in such a context, even pending the suspension of the Stability Pact, Italy’s debt would be very hard to support.
Here the problem also lies in primary surplus. According to our data, even if we assume a limited 2.5% GDP rebound in 2021, with an unchanged cost of debt (2.6% in this case) there would be the absolute need for primary surpluses of at least 2.3% and 2.6%, respectively, in the case being studied of a 9% fall in GDP and also in case of an 11% collapse.
In other words, the government should cut public spending always below 40 billion euros compared to taxation. This is impossible.
Therefore, we must necessarily monetise the extra-deficit with the ECB -monetise and not postpone payment until maturity – but for a very long period of time and for amounts that will probably be much higher than the current ones. It will also be necessary to issue common E.U. debt securities.
Otherwise the markets, which have already laughed at a currency that has not even a common taxation and a single public budget rule, will pounce on the poor wretched Euro and destroy it.
Then there is the ECB. On June 4, 2020 it announced the expansion of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) from 750 to 1,350 billion euros and also its extension until June 2021 and, in any case, until the end of the emergency situation.
However, there is additional data to analyse. Firstly, the current PEPP share mobilized for each E.U. Member State in the March-May 2020 quarter still corresponds, in essence, to the capital key.
The capital key is the mechanism whereby the ECB purchases sovereign debt in proportion to each country’s ECB share. The key is calculated according to the size of a Member State in relation to the European Union as a whole. The size is measured by population and gross domestic product in equal parts. In this way, each national Central Bank has a fair share in the ECB’s total capital.
With two significant exceptions for the time being: France in a negative senseand Italy in a positive sense.
In other words, France is actually supporting Italy’s public debt. Obviously it cannot last long.
Even in the Italian debt case, however, the PEPP share does not seem to be as high as usually believed.
The maximum absorption has long been recorded by the TLTRO purchase programme. Indeed, these are short-term operations and the markets know they will end soon.
What next? There is no alternative option.
Let us not even talk about the possibility that, based on the pressure from the so-called “thrifty countries”, well led by Germany, this mechanism may stop all of a sudden.
There is also another factor that should be better studied in Italy, namely the ruling of the German Constitutional Court based in Karlsruhe.
As made it very clear by the German Constitutional Court, it concerns the ECB programme known as Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP).
Created in 2015, it is still operational. It is not yet known for how much longer, to the delight of speculators.
On points of law, the German Constitutional Court challenged the 2018 judgment of the European Court of Justice, in which the Luxembourg judges considered the ECB’s intervention unlawful, but rather deemed that the E.U. Court should only confine itself to the actions and deeds manifestly exceeding the limits set by the Treaties and the ECB Statute.
Therefore, the issue at stake in the current Karlsruhe ruling concerns the principle of proportionality (Article 5 TEU).
Based on the principle of proportionality, in fact, the E.U. can take action in “shared competence areas” (which are listed in Article 4 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union) only if and insofar as the objectives of the proposed action cannot be sufficiently achieved by the Member States, but can rather be better achieved at E.U. level.
Certainly the monetary policy strictly falls within the E.U. and ECB competence, but the ECB’s action has inevitable repercussions on economic policy, which is in any case a shared competence area.
Hence, as the Karlsruhe judges maintain, the issue lies in defining whether the ECB enjoys independence even in relation to the treaties establishing it or whether the ECB itself should in any case follow the principles of the E.U. system to which it belongs.
In essence, it is a matter of keeping fiscal and monetary policy still separate, and this is scientifically difficult. The dream of every badly aged and old-fashioned monetarist.
In essence, however, the Karlsruhe ruling tells us that the Euro area is sub-optimal(as we already knew, since Robert Mundell’s model certainly does not apply to the E.U. and the Euro) and is in any case not representative.
We have already known it, too, and indeed for a long time.
The Euro is now a handicap for most E.U. Member States except Germany.
The system of fixed rates with the European currency enables Germany to be increasingly competitive on the export side, in the absence of mechanisms to readjust foreign trade balances.
Moreover, there is not even a real and homogeneous tax policy in the E.U.Member States, not to mention the ban on funding the Member States’ debt, which was established as far as the Maastricht Treaty.
With a view to avoiding this ECB funding mechanism, which may be rational but is illegal under the E.U. Treaties, Germany basically asks us to sell the public debt securities purchased by the ECB before their maturity.
That is fine, but it only means that a Member State’s debt can never be cancelled by purchasing the securities through its Central Bank.
Hence the securities continue to exist and be painstakingly renewed or possibly continue to re-enter the market.
Facts are facts, however, and without Mario Draghi’s quantitative easing (QE), France, for example, could certainly not have 32% of its public debt been bought back by the Eurosystem.
When all E.U.Member States’ securities reach maturity, other ones are always purchased, so that the exposure remains around 33% and Germany is happy with this strict compliance with the law.
This 33% limit is self-imposed by the ECB so as to avoid one of the Karlsruhe conditions, i.e. the national voting thresholds, within the ECB, for rescheduling the debt of an individual State.
It should be noted, however, that the ECB funds the absorption of E.U. countries’ public debt with the creation of money ex nihilo, like all Central Banks in the world. Nevertheless,this is still explicitly prohibited by the Treaties, but is barely justified, at legal level, with the aim of curbing inflation.
An economic ideology which is now very old-style, but still very fashionable within the European Central Bank.
The various ECB sovereign debt purchase programmes are already worth over 1,000 billion euros, accounting for 8% of the entire Euro area.
However, with a view to really operating in this area, the ECB must also get rid of the German Constitutional Court’s first ruling of 2017, namely the 33% limit and hence the obligation to put the purchased securities back into circulation immediately after the end of the pandemic.
Reselling, on the secondary market, the securities still maturing would cancel all the monetisation benefits, but a new PEPP will be needed in the future, without quantitative limits and for a long period of time.
And the ruling of the German Constitutional Court and Germany itself, with or without “Nordic” or “thrifty” watchdogs, will certainly get in the way. Hence for Italy (and France) there will not be much room for manoeuvre.
The Fourth Reich is advancing not with the overheated “Tiger” tanks or with the Pervitinephedrine drugs, but with the monetary game on a non-rational currency.
Germany, however, said a very clear “no” to this process of debt repurchase and absorption, precisely with the Karlsruhe ruling of May 5.
The current PEPP is already outlawed under German law. We need to remember it or Germany will make us remember it.
Italy, however, will not survive within the Euro area without QE, PEPP or any other trickery may be devised by the European Central Bank. The same holds true for France, although it still does not say so clearly.
When, at the end of the three months allowed by the ruling of the German Constitutional Court, the Bundesbank withdraws from the purchase operations, it will obviously start again to put several thousand Bunds purchased with the ECB back on the market.
The sales of these securities will make rates rise in Germany, an increase that will be counteracted by the flight of Italian and French capital to buy German debt.
At that juncture, Germany itself will autonomously carry out controls on capital, which is tantamount to paving the way for its exit from the Euro.
What about the United States? At the end of 2019, before the lockdown, the share of speculative debt at high default risk amounted to 5,200 billion U.S. dollars.
Over the last two months of Covid-19 crisis, 1,600 companies a day have gone bankrupt in the United States, while consumer debt – a sort of crazy magic wand for American spending – has decreased by at least 2 billion U.S. dollars per month.
It is a severe drop for those who foolishly live on debt, not to mention that in late 2019 consumption was worth 75% of the U.S. GDP.
Therefore, considering the close correlation existing between consumer credit and consumption – and hence GDP – in the United States, there will almost certainly be a further crisis in companies’ solvency there.
Since 2008 FED’s interventions have been worth 7,000 billion U.S. dollars, and the financial assets on the U.S. market are worth approximately 120 trillion dollars, i.e. 5.5 times the North American GDP.
Hence, not even the United States will give us a chance to find a way out or an exit strategy.
There Is No Business, Like Small Business: New Strategy
Once upon a time, all big businesses of the world were only small businesses. However, occasionally, when big businesses classified as too big to fail, it is the special status when they start failing their own nations, damaging common good, hurting humankind at large. This is when big business allowed to morph into a Godzilla to trample all over the governments and institutions and line them up as hostages. Study the rise and fall of the world’s largest business empires of last century.
Now Showtime: There is no business, like small business, because the small business sector is not only a giant business, but also the biggest layer of the economy, largest contributor in kind to its nation, adding jobs, paying taxes and creating real value creation, while taking all the abuse and bureaucratic nonsense. Hence, post pandemic recovery will take no prisoners and harshly unleash economic challenges as mirror on the economic development competency and question national priorities. Here, no worries, as usual the big business will always take care of itself. Small business will be the only game left in town, something for the political leadership to cling on to and something for local trade groups to try to claim as success. The definitions on what is big and what is small are both on the table for honest evaluation and equally juxtaposed need a declaration on what business serves the economy of the nation and what business destroys the economies of nation.
New math of the post pandemic world clearly shakes down old mindsets. Unless national economic development leaders, trade groups and trade associations acquire proven entrepreneurial experiences, expertise and tactical battlefield capability at the very top and display a warrior mindset to upskill for global competitive excellence, they are just a dance party with water pistols. Entrepreneurialism is the real value creation driving force behind the economy and not a value manipulation exercise with some certificates. Any misunderstanding on such issues only creates shiny cities, surrounded by tent-cities. Study the global economic chaos and worklessness is creeping across the world.
The illusion of super big technology driving super global growth is another myth of crypto-tyrannies. The worshiping super magnanimous technologies, including Facebook engaged in stealing the future from the next generations, now manipulating data to divide and conquer elections and serving special agenda groups causing tribalism and global socio-economic damage. Study how the future routinely stolen in broad daylight by Social Media.
Mutation of economic thought: Why is creation of fake economies much easier; this is where zeros bought, sold and traded as real assets, everything multiplied, subtracted, divided but nothing adds up, there are no bottom-line totals, ever. When columns do not fit anywhere, like an abstract art on canvas, for the eye of the beholder they glow in the dark. Hence, cubism-finances and impressionist-economies, while on the other hand, real value creation economy is one of the hardest journeys,it isrealentrepreneurialism wrapped in integrity and solid hard day’s work creating common good. The reason is that small medium businesses have lost trust in their government and major institutions, while they paint the economy as abstract art and print invisible unlimited money but SME only thrown in jail if they only photocopy a dollar bill. Covidians demand a new narrative on economic affairs and overall totals of budgets.
Unless trade groups of nations assembled and thanked profusely for their work done over the last century. Invited to join as new players, as this is now a new page for a new age and a new direction for a new digital future. Let meritocracy chart out the future of trade-groups; let vertical sectors build their own independent global age narratives to ride on entrepreneurial mindsets. When methodical agenda on simultaneous synchronization bring all key components under master plan tabled critical thinking and hardcore business experiences should lead. When vertical groups and all upskilling and reskilling features interact on digital platforms combined, eventually they will all see the light and most importantly learn the future of the global-age of digital commerce. Upskilling of all layers is critical so all grow together. Reskilling to create real value production is essential so it becomes a sustainable model.
With no room to spend another decade on some academic feasibility studies, organize a warrior team to undertake such mobilization developments. Such national mandates are often not new funding dependent rather execution starved and deployment hungry. Why shut down the electricity of the building and climb the skyscraper via the staircase. With the majority of nations locked up in an old mindset on digitization, today, they simply cannot zip up to the top floor, exhausted and breathless as they are climbing stairs and badly stuck on lower floors. Pandemic recovery is harsh. Fire the first person who says they need heavy new funding, fire the second person who says they are too busy to change. Change is a gift for free but for the right mindset.
The New Trends: National mobilization of entrepreneurialism will advance; small and medium businesses will grow, as they have no choice but to upskill innovative excellence and reskill for quality manufacturing of goods and services. Learn from Asia, study Africa, stop reading newspapers but the world maps, acquire new math from ‘population-rich-nations’, and expand collaborative alliances with the knowledge-rich-nations to reach global markets.
New Trends on Small Medium Business Economy:
The new math: why all over the world it is now attracting new entrepreneurs at rapid speed? Why are Covidians all over the world refusing high-rise, low pay, cubical-slavery and transforming to creative freedom, global-age access and hammocks. Today a USD $1000 investment in technology buys digital solutions, which were million dollars, a decade ago. Today, any micro-small-medium-enterprise capable of remote working models can save 90% of office and bureaucratic costs and suddenly operate like a mini-multi-national with little or no additional costs.
The new uplifts: How struggling economies are now exploring the “National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism on Digital Platforms of Exportability Protocols” as alternate revolutionary thinking. Study how Africa model under Dr. Ameenah Gurib-Fakim is expanding and why the groups of western developed economies are so fearful of such a mega shift in thinking. Study Expothon on Google.
The new speed: If Agrarian age to industrial age took a millennia, while industrial age to computer age took a century, now from cyber-age to paperless, cash-less, office-less and work-less age it is almost knocking the door, just open and see. Is this the revenge of The Julian Calendar, time like a tsunami drowning us in our own depths of performance, challenging our lifelong learning and exposing our critical thinking forcing us to fathom the pace of change, swim or drown?
Time to study deeply, why forest fires always put out by creating more selected fires; therefore let government and bureaucracy stay where they are, while creating a far superior brand new meritocracy centric digital firefighting unit to act at the top and bring required results. The cost is a fraction of what routinely wasted 1000 times in lost and missed opportunities.
Time to appreciate, why is the fear of exposure of limited talent the number one fear of adapting digitizationas digital-divide is just a mental-divide.Why without digitization there is no economy and why it has taken decades?
Time to apply entrepreneurial mindset, why incentivizing all frontline management of all midsize business economic development and foreign investment attraction and export promotion bodies is a requirement of time? Observe the power of entrepreneurial mindset in the driver seat, deploy national mobilization of midsize economies, accept upskilling as a national mandate, and digitization as national pride.
Is there any authoritative leadership on entrepreneurialism present in the boardroom? No need to have chills, as mainly from Asia, there are some 500 million new entrepreneurs already on the march, therefore, no need to ask where are they headed but rather ask where your national entrepreneurialism is going? Study why entrepreneurialism is neither academic-born nor academic centric, why all most successful legendary founders that created earth shattering organizations were only the dropouts?
Is there a new realization or back to water pistol games? Not to be confused with academic courses on fixing Paper-Mache economies and already broken paperwork trails, chambers primarily focused on conflict resolutions, compliance regulations, and trade groups on taxation policy matters. Mobilization of small medium business economy is a tactical battlefield of advancements of an enterprise, as meritocracy is the nightmarish challenges for over 100 plus nations where majority high potential sectors are at standstill on such affairs. Surprisingly, such advancements are mostly not new funding hungry but mobilization starved. Observe the trail of silence. The empty shelves are not supply chain issues but symptoms of broken down economies. Economies are not cryptopia; they are about real value creation by the local small medium business forces to create local grassroots prosperity. The failure is not having the right mindsets.
Five things to watch for the year 2022: US election will surprise the world as it has the last two times. World economies tested, financially along with leadership competency levels. Big business will remain big and undisturbed. The Covidian will march for truth. Small medium business mobilization will further grow as a reliable answer to the economy and jobs.This is how humankind will crawl towards critical thinking.
The rest is easy
The Philippines’ Circular Future
From the period of 2000-2019 The Philippines placed 4th as the most affected by climate-related disasters according to the Climate Risk Index. This is because geographically, it occupies an area that makes it a hotspot for tropical typhoons and other natural disasters. But the system of rural livelihood in the Philippines and it’s archipelagic state are also contributing factors to its vulnerability to the impacts brought about by the climate crisis, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events.
Understanding these realities, the government has been proactive in developing the country’s adaptive and mitigating capacities. These efforts are seen in their national and global initiatives such as the establishment of The Climate Change Act of 2009, a law that aims to prevent and reduce the adverse impact of climate change, as well as taking part in the Paris Agreement through its NDCs that commits to a 75% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.
A Circular Economy
Beyond the health and social crises caused by COVID19 pandemic, it has also underscored the importance of fast tracking climate action and the need to rethink economic systems through circular models as supported by the Department of Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III. Currently, the House Bill (HB) 7609, also known as “Philippine Circular Economy Act of 2020” is being proposed to serve as a mitigation strategy to accelerate the country’s contribution to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development through mainstreaming of circular and sustainable consumption and production strategies. Similarly, according to The Circularity Gap Report 2021 of the Circle Economy, the implementation of a circular economy would complement the efforts of the NDCs globally, as it will aid in keeping the global temperature rise to well below 2degC by 2032.
Circular economy is a consumption production model that in essence would allow elimination of waste through maximizing the use of valuable resources within systems, the opposite of current linear economies in which products are disposed of after use. This can be achieved by ensuring that materials circulate within operating networks while also allowing natural systems to regenerate. In order to implement this effectively would require collective commitment from stakeholders across the value chain i.e. from the public and private sector, up to the consumers.
Inline with this pursuit, among other proposed key initiatives of the government that are being developed is the Single Use Plastic Regulation Act (HB 9147), a tiered phase-out plan for single-use plastics (SUPs) that aims to improve the country’s waste management and promote circularity. The HB 9147 is also aimed to foster engagement within the business community through the integration of an Extended Producers Responsibility (EPR) scheme. This EPR scheme will serve as a policy tool that would instill accountability from producers throughout the lifecycle of their products that utilize plastic packaging. This scheme will promote funding and collaboration among the private sector and the government through the shared responsibility in managing these waste. At the same time this will encourage innovation of more sustainable and eco-friendly designs for products and packaging.
Business opportunities in the shift from linear to circular pathways
Accordingly, these proposed policies should not be viewed as threats by businesses in order to reap the benefits it entails. Gary Steele, group CEO of TES, enumerates several opportunities that businesses can leverage from this scheme, such as improved reputation and customer relationship through extended value adding services. Steele recognizes that this system also decentralizes sources of raw materials needed for the production of goods, thus contributing to strengthening the supply chain. As such, a circular economy would open avenues for innovative business opportunities that would result from the recycling of waste materials and even repair of products among others. Ultimately these opportunities contribute to reduced cost and increased profits, making a strong case for the implementation in business models and marketing strategies.
Building momentum towards transformational change
However, the degree of circularity within the Philippines is still relatively low as noted in a study by the Asian Development Bank in 2020. Reasons for this are mainly due to its large primary resource extraction sector, growing infrastructure development and poor waste management at municipal levels. Albeit laws such as the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000 have been implemented, the country’s lenient law enforcement and lack of infrastructure continues to serve as barriers to its waste management efforts.
That being said, it is imperative that the Philippines continues to develop an enabling environment for businesses to champion circularity through financial incentives, new legislations and the enforcement of already existing laws. Given the economic, environmental and social benefits that a circular economy presents, it’s vital that it continues to build on this current momentum in contextualizing and mainstreaming the concept of a circular economy in the country. It is important that the countries, including the Philippines, exhaust all efforts in contributing to climate action to prevent the forecasted catastrophic events that lie ahead. This would need transformational changes in our systems, one of which is a shift to a circular future.
 Circle Economy. (2021). The Circularity Gap Report 2021.
 ADB. (2020). Regional: Supporting Implementation of Environment-Related Sustainable Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific (Philippine Subproject) Circular Economy in the Philippines.
Will Meritocracy Save The Post Pandemic World?
The Reality of Human Endurance: Protection of self-incompetence is a condition of the human heart as our own self-discovery by our own mind only exposes us to our own fragility and our limits on our already acquired skills. Despite such skills always surrounded by additional untapped hidden talents, but when passages of excruciating pain required achieving transformative advancements the heart draws curtain to such adventures out of fear.
Most importantly at times, self-discovery alerts us of a dormant self-destructive beast living in stagnation within us. To advance and search for any new thought, any new skill, or any new enlightenment, it is always an odyssey for the mind, to search for wisdom is to fight monsters, like a warrior on a bold adventure of courage in a lonely journey. Be a warrior and discover your own universe of hidden talents. Meritocracy awaits for you…
Most economies of the world already visibly damaged, Covid-19,a new sheriff in town, a dealer’s choice game on the table; needed is an ace card to bring meritocracy, performance, productivity and profitability or lose big time. Select a few nations of your choice, observe their levels of executions and digitization, study their bureaucracies and determine their rate of resilience and if and how they will survive over the next five years. Now, the real difficult questions
Why shut down the electricity of the building and climb the skyscraper via the staircase. After all the gross negligence by most nations to neglect digitization and to not to adopt almost free technologies is now visible as an unforgivable fault. Digitization, most critically needed in the main economic hubs, trade-groups, associations and the entire small medium businesses across the nation on integrated platforms. With the majority of nations locked up in an old mindset. They simply cannot zip up to the top floor, exhausted and breathless as they are climbing stairs and badly stuck on lower floors.
Therefore, what is wrong with stubbornly bureaucratic mindset and why it refuses to showcase its diversity of talents and skills to the world. Most importantly, why are such questions not part of the daily national debates? Why are layers of economic development leadership so shy, trade groups so afraid and political leadership so confused about it?
The New Realities: Post pandemic recovery will take no prisoners. Out of the cage, the constant mutation of our economic thought has now morphed into an ugly monster. Alarm bells are ringing. The world has changed on economic behaviorism every millennia and this period is no different. Eventually modern intelligentsia of the world, seeking common good, one again will pass through the eye of the needle and arrive on the other side badly battered and bruised but a bit better. This is how humankind has saved itself from total obliteration. This is how the global populace has learned to linger as economic shifts of power are coming near you.
The Rise of Meritocracy: Unless bureaucracies unlearn to leave their broken past behind, embrace the future, digital platforms, global diversity and exportability, the paper-based mindset economies will only end up in waste-paper-baskets. Meritocracy will eat bureaucracy for lunch. There is no other way. Soon it is going to be lunchtime.
Adjustments: acquire mastery of such affairs on fast track; rediscover constant learning, constant disruptions and constant advancements, future needs a new global-age mindset. Understanding of the micro manufacturing and micro-exports logic is a key issue, the digital platforms and the sense to where commerce headed are the landscapes. Unless western economies rediscover manufacturing, blended with technology, platform economies the billions will march down on the old system.
Century ago, the industrial age forced acquisition of heaviest machinery to advance, now there is nothing heavy investments, but the free flying minds on freely available technologies and platforms that are in charge.Today optimization of freely available technology requires little or no muscle power but definitely demands superior mental-powers. Upstanding how to use critical thinking and declaring lifelong learning as a normal requirement will bridge progress. Smartness today means to identify your hidden enemies; knowing what messages that draw you towards tribalism, hate and destruction, knowing what is Media and what is fakery, what is Social Media or if Political Rhetoric is nothing but a special agenda to divide and conquer. Do not become divisible.
What a difference a century makes, during 1922, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics formed, Tomb of Tutankhamen discovered, BBC formed and Gandhi put in Prison by the British. Our 2022 will unfold the post pandemic economic realities. With dozens of elections, reshuffling of cabinets, recycling of promises and Teleprompters on garage sales the socio-econo mood swings will test freedom to yell the truth.
Global shift of powers now defined. Colossal economic failures identified. Global opinion solidifies. Universal struggles start to appear. Neither, super-taxing bearers of the Pandora papers will save the economies nor will the real surprises out of the Pandora’s Box from hyperinflation to hyper-deflation will save us. Candle light visit to tragic landscapes of Beirut speaks volume as it sinks to the dark ages. Uplift mobilization of entrepreneurialism will save nations. Advancements towards “meritocracy” are personal development trends, therefore, a call of the times, a new truth, and new reality. Change and change again, statues are for the birds to poop on…
The rest is easy
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