Connect with us

Reports

The importance of digital resilience in times of crisis

Published

on

EU Commission released the results of the 2020 Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), which monitors Europe’s overall digital performance and tracks the progress of EU countries with respect to their digital competitiveness. This year’s DESI shows that there is progress in all Member States and all key areas measured in the index. This becomes all the more important in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, which has demonstrated how essential digital technologies have become, by allowing work to continue, monitoring the spread of the virus, or accelerating the search for cures and vaccines. Furthermore, the DESI indicators relevant for the recovery show that EU Member States should step up their efforts to improve the coverage of Very High Capacity Networks, assign 5G spectrum to enable the commercial launch of 5G services, improve citizens’ digital skills and further digitise businesses and the public sector.

Executive Vice-President, Margrethe Vestager, said: “The coronavirus crisis has demonstrated how crucial it is for citizens and businesses to be connected and to be able to interact with each other online. We will continue to work with Member States to identify areas where more investment is needed so that all Europeans can benefit from digital services and innovations.

Commissioner for Internal Market, Thierry Breton, added: “The data we publish today shows that industry is using digital solutions now more than ever. We need to ensure this is also the case for small and medium businesses and that the most advanced digital technologies are deployed throughout the economy.

In the context of the recovery plan for Europe, adopted on 27 May 2020, DESI will inform country-specific analysis to support the digital recommendations of the European Semester. This will assist Member States to target and prioritise their reform and investment needs, thereby facilitating access to the Recovery and Resilience Facility worth €560 billion. The Facility will provide Member States with the funds to make their economies more resilient and ensure that investments and reforms will support the green and digital transitions.

Main findings of the 2020 DESI

Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands are the leaders in overall digital performance in the EU. Malta, Ireland and Estonia are following right after. The International Digital Economy and Society Index (I-DESI) shows that the best performing EU countries are also worldwide leaders. The largest EU economies are not digital frontrunners, which indicates that the speed of digital transformation must accelerate for the EU to successfully deliver on the twin digital and green transformations. Over the last 5 years, Ireland has made the most significant progress, followed by the Netherlands, Malta and Spain. These countries also perform well above the EU average as measured by the DESI score.

As the pandemic has had a significant impact on each of the five dimensions tracked by DESI, the 2020 findings should be read in conjunction with the numerous measures taken by the Commission and Member States to manage the crisis and support the recovery. Member States took action to minimise contagion and to support healthcare systems, such as by introducing applications and platforms to facilitate telemedicine and coordinate healthcare resources. The Commission also took action, such as issuing a Recommendation on a common Union toolbox for the use of technology and data to combat and enable the exit from the crisis, in particular on mobile applications and the use of anonymised data in tracing apps. The Body of European Regulators of Electronic Communications (BEREC), upon request of the Commission, started to monitor internet traffic to avoid congestion.

Main findings in 5 digital areas

The Digital Economy and Society Index tracks the progress made in Member States in 5 principal policy areas, namely connectivity, digital skills, internet usage by individuals, integration of digital technologies by businesses and digital public services.

Connectivity has improved but more needs to be done to address fast-growing needs. Member States are working on the transposition of new EU rules adopted in 2018 into national legislation, with a view to fostering investment in Very High Capacity Networks, both fixed and mobile. 78% of households had a fixed broadband subscription in 2019, up from 70% 5 years ago, and 4G networks cover almost the entire European population. But only 17 Member States have already assigned spectrum in the 5G pioneer bands, (5 countries more than last year). Finland, Germany, Hungary and Italy are the most advanced on 5G readiness. Fixed Very High Capacity broadband networks are available to 44% of EU homes.

More progress in digital skills is needed, especially since the coronavirus crisis has shown that adequate digital skills are crucial for citizens to be able to access information and services. A large part of the EU population, 42%, still lacks at least basic digital skills. In 2018, some 9.1 million people worked as ICT specialists across the EU, 1.6 million more than 4 years ago. 64% of large enterprises and 56% of SMEs that recruited ICT specialists during 2018 reported that vacancies for ICT specialists were hard to fill.

Although the pandemic has seen a sharp increase in internet use, the trend was already present before the crisis, with 85% of people using the internetat least once a week(up from 75% in 2014). The use of video calls has grown the most, from 49% of internet users in 2018 to 60% in 2019. Internet banking and shopping are also more popular than in the past, being used by 66% and 71% of internet users respectively.

Enterprises are becoming more and more digitised, with large companies taking the lead. 38.5% of large companies already rely on advanced cloud services and 32.7% reported that they use big data analytics. However, the vast majority of SMEs do not yet use these digital technologies, as only 17% of them use cloud services and only 12% big data analytics. As for e-commerce, only 17.5% of SMEs sold products or services online in 2019, following a very slight increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2016. In contrast, 39% of large enterprises made use of online sales in 2019.

In order to boost e-commerce, the EU has agreed on a series of measures ranging from ending unjustified cross-border barriers and facilitating cheaper cross-border parcel deliveries to ensuring protection of online customer rights and promoting cross-border access to online content. Since December 2018, consumers and companies are entitled to find the best online deals throughout the EU without experiencing discrimination based on their nationality or place of residence.

Finally, there is an increasing trend towards the use of digital public services in the areas of eGovernment and eHealth, which allows for more efficiency and savings for governments and businesses, improved transparency, and the greater participation of citizens in political life. 67% of internet users who submitted forms to their public administration in 2019 now use online channels, up from 57% in 2014, showing the convenience of using ICT-enabled services over paper-based ones. The top performers in this area are Estonia, Spain, Denmark, Finland and Latvia.

Background

The annual Digital Economy and Society Index measures the progress of EU Member States in their steps towards a digital economy and society, on the basis of Eurostat data as well as specialised studies and collection methods. The DESI 2020 reports are based on 2019 data. To improve the methodology of the index and take account of the latest technological developments, a number of changes were made to the 2020 edition, which now includes fixed very high capacity network (VHCN) coverage. The DESI was re-calculated for all countries for previous years to reflect the changes in the choice of indicators and corrections made to the underlying data. Country scores and rankings may thus have changed compared with previous publications. As the figures refer to 2019, the United Kingdom is included in the 2020 DESI and in calculated EU averages.

Continue Reading
Comments

Reports

Vietnam’s Economy Forecast to Grow 7.5% in 2022

Published

on

Vietnam’s economic recovery accelerated over the last six months on the back of resilient manufacturing and a robust rebound in services. GDP growth is forecast to surge from an estimated 2.6 percent in 2021 to 7.5 percent in 2022, while inflation is projected to average 3.8 percent over the year, a World Bank economic update for Vietnam released today says.

Vietnam’s economy expanded 5.2 percent[1] in Q4-2021, 5.1 percent in Q1-2022, and 7.7 percent in Q2-2022, as consumers satisfied pent-up demand and foreign tourist arrivals picked up, according to the report,  “Taking Stock: Educate to Grow,” the World Bank’s bi-annual economic outlook for Vietnam.  

However, this positive outlook is subject to heightened risks that threaten recovery prospects.  Risks include growth slowdown or stagflation in main export markets, further commodity price shocks, continued disruption of global supply chains, or the emergence of new COVID-19 variants.  Domestic challenges include continued labor shortages, the risk of higher inflation, and heightened financial sector risks.

Given the nascent domestic recovery, the weakening global demand outlook, and heightened inflation risks, the report suggests a proactive response by the authorities. In the short run, on the fiscal front, the focus should be on the implementation of the Recovery and Development policy package and expanding targeted social safety nets to help buffer the poor and vulnerable from the effects of the fuel price shock and rising inflation. In the financial sector, close monitoring and strengthening non-performing loan reporting and provisioning as well as  adopting an insolvency framework would be recommended.

If upside risks to inflation materialize — with core inflation accelerating and the consumer price index moving above the 4 percent target set by the government — the State Bank of Vietnam should be ready to pivot to monetary tightening to quell inflationary pressures through interest rate hikes and tighter liquidity provision. 

“To sustain economic growth at the desired rate, Vietnam needs to increase productivity by 2-3 percent every year.” said Carolyn Turk, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam. “International experiences have shown that higher worker’s productivity can be achieved by investing in the education system, as an important part of a basket of investments and reforms. A competitive workforce will generate much-needed efficiency for Vietnam in the long term.”

The report argues that transforming the higher education system will be key to boosting Vietnam’s productivity and help achieve its goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2035 and high-income country by 2045. To match average higher education enrollment levels in upper-middle economies,  3.8 million Vietnamese students would need to be enrolled in higher education institutions, almost twice as many as enrolled in 2019.

Reforms to Vietnam’s higher education system could help support development objectives, the report says. The increasing financial costs of pursuing higher education and the perception of diminishing economic returns from pursuing higher education have weakened demand. The system is further undermined by falling short of providing skills sought by employers, underinvestment by the state, and a weak and fragmented institutional structure governing higher education.

The report details suggestions for improving access to higher education, enhancing the quality and relevance of instruction, and making more efficient use of resources. Suggestions include expanding the use of digital technologies, enhancing the role of the private sector, and streamlining the regulatory framework.

Continue Reading

Reports

Financial education gaps are primary barrier to retail investing in capital markets

Published

on

New research from the World Economic Forum finds that 40% of non-investors have chosen not to invest because they do not know how or find it too confusing. Furthermore, roughly 70% of people would be more likely to invest, or invest more, with expanded financial education

Done in collaboration with BNY Mellon and Accenture, The Future of Capital Markets: Democratization of Retail Investing also finds that increased participation of retail investors in capital markets is a largely positive trend. Though some concerns about riskier investments remain, retail investors are showing themselves to be prudent investors using markets to build long-term wealth.

“Even amid market volatility, participation in capital markets can empower people to take ownership of their financial future,” said Meagan Andrews, Investing Lead at the World Economic Forum. “We’re just now starting to understand the new wave of retail investors and the power they are wielding in the market. It’s important industry leaders take steps to empower individuals so they can optimize financial decisions for their betterment, whether they currently invest or not.”

Based on a global survey of over 9,000 respondents from 9 countries and expert interviews, the report highlights the importance of enhancing personalized advice for retail investors and improving the reliability of information and investor protections. It also underscores opportunities to improve education, trust and access to increase inclusion in global capital markets.

With the current market volatility, industry players, policy-makers and others need to act now to ensure the benefits of investing are increasingly accessible worldwide.

“Global capital markets are undergoing a fundamental transformation, with more individual and retail investors seeking access than ever before in history,” said Akash Shah, Chief Growth Officer at BNY Mellon. “This research highlights opportunities for the entire financial industry to build the trust and transparency needed to empower and democratize market participation in underserved communities around the world.”

Trends of retail investors
The survey results provided critical insights into the factors and mindsets impacting individuals’ decisions to enter capital markets globally.

Notably, the survey found that individuals primarily look to capital markets to build long-term wealth, especially in emerging markets. Half of those surveyed were investing to save for retirement or to build generational wealth.

Retail investors are skewing younger, with Gen Z and younger Millennials investing at higher rates. Younger investors are much more likely than their peers to have received financial education earlier in life.

Meanwhile, non-investors are less confident they will achieve their long-term financial objectives and, when compared to investors, a higher proportion only learned about investing many years after entering the workforce. Their main reasons for avoiding financial markets were fear of losing money and because of an investing knowledge gap.

Generational wealth also plays a vital role in deciding to invest early. Respondents whose parents invested in the market reported that they began investing earlier in life compared to those with parents who did not invest.

The survey also revealed significant gaps in product awareness. For instance, surveyed investors noted they had a greater understanding of newer products like cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) compared to more traditional instruments like stocks and bonds.

Expanding the benefits of retail investing

There are many ways capital markets and global society can work together to grow wealth for more individuals in a responsible manner.

1. Financial literacy and improving investor education

Personal finance education – from setting a budget to learning how to secure one’s retirement – is integral to building wealth responsibly. Industry players should focus on increasing basic financial literacy, promoting responsible investment strategies and improving proactive retirement planning outside of pensions.

Providing information is not enough – content should be fit for purpose, with efforts to make it as understandable as possible. Both policy-makers and private sector actors need to improve their tactics to meet the desires of today’s investors.

2. Personalized, outcome-oriented advice for all

Solutions that financial institutions currently offer are often siloed and don’t always resonate with investors. Those at lower wealth thresholds are often left with few options to get financial advice: 80% of current investors state being able to speak with an adviser is essential to making an investment decision but only 48% are able to turn to a financial adviser or wealth manager for advice.

All investors should have access to the tools and guidance they need to be successful participants in capital markets. This should be inclusive of investors of all income and wealth levels. The industry must expand access to personalized advice and scale services to thrive to meet increasing retail investor demand – this must happen across all wealth brackets.

3. Collaboration and public-private partnerships

Increased collaboration across the industry, including public-private partnerships, will be needed.

Brokerages, wealth managers and exchanges are integral to this effort due to their proximity to retail investors and the speed at which they can enact change. From educational efforts to initiatives to lower the barriers to entry for retail investors, public-private partnerships will be essential.

“Increasing market participation and empowering retail investors has to include collaboration from all stakeholders,” said Kathleen O’Reilly, Global Lead, Accenture Strategy. “Financial institutions especially, from the C-suite to individual wealth managers, must play a critical role in offering relatable education efforts in addition to the investment products that will help investors become smarter and more confident.”

Continue Reading

Reports

Global economy: Outlook worsens as global recession looms

Published

on

Still reeling from the COVID pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global economy is facing an increasingly murky and uncertain outlook, according to the latest report released on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The World Economic Outlook Update July 2022: Gloomy and More Uncertain, highlights the significant consequences of the stalling of the world’s three main economic powerhouses – the United States, China and the major European economies.

“The outlook has darkened significantly since April,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research.

“The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one”.

The baseline forecast for global growth is for it to slow from 6.1 per cent last year, to 3.2 per cent in 2022 – 0.4 per cent lower than forecast in the last Outlook update in April.

Three key economies

With higher-than-expected inflation – especially in the US and the largest European economies – global financial conditions are becoming tighter.

In the US, reduced household purchasing power and tighter monetary policy will drive growth down to 2.3 per cent this year and one percent next year, according to the outlook.

China’s slowdown has been worse than anticipated amid COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns, with negative effects from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continuing.

Moreover, further lockdowns and a deepening real estate crisis there has pushed growth down to 3.3 per cent this year – the slowest in more than four decades, excluding the pandemic.

And in the Eurozone, growth has been revised down to 2.6 per cent this year and 1.2 percent in 2023, reflecting spillovers from the Ukraine war and tighter monetary policy.

“As a result, global output contracted in the second quarter of this year,” said Mr. Gourinchas.

Inflation

Despite the global slowdown, inflation has been revised up, in part due to rising food and energy prices.

This year it is anticipated to reach 6.6 per cent in advanced economies and 9.5 per cent in emerging market and developing economies – representing upward revisions of 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively. And it is projected to remain elevated for longer.

Broadened inflation in many economies reflects “the impact of cost pressures from disrupted supply chains and historically tight labour markets,” the IMF official stated.

Downward risks

The report outlines some risks ahead, including that the war in Ukraine could end European gas supply from Russia altogether; rising prices could cause widespread food insecurity and social unrest; and geopolitical fragmentation may impede global trade and cooperation.

Inflation could remain stubbornly high if labour markets remain overly tight or inflation expectations are too optimistic and prove more costly than expected.

And renewed COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns threaten to further suppress China’s growth.

“In a plausible alternative scenario where some of these risks materialize…inflation will rise and global growth decelerate further to about 2.6 per cent this year and two per cent next year, a pace that growth has fallen below just five times since 1970,” said the IMF economist.

“Under this scenario, both the United States and the Euro area experience near-zero growth next year, with negative knock-on effects for the rest of the world”.

Destabilizing inflation

Current inflation levels represent a clear risk to macroeconomic stability, according to the outlook.

Responding to the situation, central banks in advanced economies are withdrawing monetary support faster than expected, while many in emerging market and developing economies began raising interest rates last year.

“The resulting synchronized monetary tightening across countries is historically unprecedented, and its effects are expected to bite, with global growth slowing next year and inflation decelerating,” said Mr. Gourinchas.

Policy priorities

While acknowledging that tighter monetary policy would have economic costs, the IMF official upheld that delaying it would only exacerbate hardship.

And hampered by difficulties in coordinating creditor agreements, how and whether debt can be restructured, remains unpredictable.

He argued that domestic policies responding to the impacts of high energy and food prices should focus on those most affected, without distorting prices.

“Governments should refrain from hoarding food and energy and instead look to unwind barriers to trade such as food export bans, which drive world prices higher,” advised the IMF official.

Meanwhile, mitigating climate change continues to require prompt multilateral action to limit emissions and raise investment to accelerate a “green transition”.

Policymakers are urged to ensure that measures are temporary and only cover energy shortfalls and climate policies.

Teetering on the edge

From climate transition and pandemic preparedness to food security and debt distress, multilateral cooperation is key, said the IMF economist.

“Amid great challenge and strife, strengthening cooperation remains the best way to improve economic prospects and mitigate the risk of geoeconomic fragmentation,” he underscored.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Trending