The combination of the Covid-19 crisis and an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphere have put global demand for natural gas on course for its largest annual decline in history, the International Energy Agency said today in a new report. Global gas demand is expected to fall by 4%, or 150 billion cubic metres (bcm) – twice the size of the drop following the 2008 global financial crisis.
As of early June, all major gas markets worldwide are experiencing falls in demand or slumps in growth, according to the IEA’s latest annual market report Gas 2020. For the full year, more mature markets across Europe, North America and Asia are forecast to see the biggest drops, accounting for 75% of the total decline in gas demand in 2020.
“Natural gas has so far experienced a less severe impact than oil and coal, but it is far from immune from the current crisis. The record decline this year represents a dramatic change of circumstances for an industry that had become used to strong increases in demand,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director.
Global oversupply is pushing major natural gas indices to record lows, while the oil and gas industry is cutting spending and postponing investment decisions to make up for the significant shortfall in revenue. Although a rebound is expected in 2021, the IEA report does not assume a rapid return to the pre-crisis trajectory.
“Global gas demand is expected to gradually recover in the next two years, but this does not mean it will quickly go back to business as usual,” Dr Birol said. “The Covid-19 crisis will have a lasting impact on future market developments, dampening growth rates and increasing uncertainties.”
After 2021, most of the increase in demand takes place in emerging Asia, led by China and India where gas benefits from strong policy support. In both countries, the industrial sector is the main source of demand growth, making it highly dependent on the pace of the recovery in domestic and export markets for industrial goods. Repercussions from the Covid-19 crisis are set to result in 75 bcm of lost annual demand by 2025, which is the same amount as the increase in global demand in 2019.
The main drivers of future supply growth – US shale and large conventional projects in the Middle East and Russia – are also under pressure from the current oil price collapse and uncertainty surrounding demand trends over the short and medium term.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to remain the main driver of the international gas trade. The wave of investment in LNG projects during 2018 and 2019 will bring additional export capacity in North America, Africa and Russia. Slower growth in global gas demand in the coming years is likely to result in capacity outpacing LNG imports through 2025, limiting the risk of a tight LNG market for the time being.
New production and infrastructure projects are likely to come online amid growth trends that are markedly below earlier expectations, reinforcing the prospect of overcapacity and low prices. This casts a shadow over future investments, which will be needed in the long term to ensure the renewal of production sources and global security of supply.
Korea shares experience of electric vehicles and renewable energy with Thailand
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) is supporting South-East Asian countries in combatting climate change through policy consultation and capacity building in the areas of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
At an event organized in cooperation with the Korea Energy Agency (KEA) and Thailand’s Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE), Ministry of Energy, Stein Hansen, UNIDO Regional Director and Representative of UNIDO Regional Office Hub in Thailand, highlighted the UNIDO project’s study on electric vehicle promotion in Thailand and the impact on the biofuel industry throughout the supply chain, and a road map to achieve 100% renewable energy use by industrial sector.
Prasert Sinsukprasert, the Director General of DEDE, spoke about Thailand’s 20-year National Strategy plan and said the DEDE is delighted to partner with the project to come up with the draft policy of electric vehicles and roadmap to 100% renewable energy in Thai industry.
In a presentation on the current status and policies of electric vehicle distribution in the Republic of Korea, Minkoo Park remarked that in Korea the authorities provide incentives in the form of discounts on highway and parking charges and financial support for people purchasing electric vehicles. Hyein Jin provided information about Korea’s 2050 Carbon Neutrality Strategy.
All speakers agreed that the eco-friendly energy is challenging both in electric vehicles and renewable energy but that it is worth it to achieve sustainable growth.
It’s time to make clean energy investment in emerging economies a top global priority
The world’s energy and climate future increasingly hinges on whether emerging and developing economies are able to successfully transition to cleaner energy systems, calling for a step change in global efforts to mobilise and channel the massive surge in investment that is required, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
The special report – carried out in collaboration with the World Bank and the World Economic Forum – sets out a series of actions to enable these countries to overcome the major hurdles they face in attracting the financing to build the clean, modern and resilient energy systems that can power their growing economies for decades to come.
Annual clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies needs to increase by more than seven times – from less than USD 150 billion last year to over $1 trillion by 2030 to put the world on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the report, Financing Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging and Developing Economies. Unless much stronger action is taken, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions from these economies – which are mostly in Asia, Africa and Latin America – are set to grow by 5 billion tonnes over the next two decades.
“In many emerging and developing economies, emissions are heading upwards while clean energy investments are faltering, creating a dangerous fault line in global efforts to reach climate and sustainable energy goals,’’ said Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “Countries are not starting on this journey from the same place – many do not have access to the funds they need to rapidly transition to a healthier and more prosperous energy future – and the damaging effects of the Covid-19 crisis are lasting longer in many parts of the developing world.”
“There is no shortage of money worldwide, but it is not finding its way to the countries, sectors and projects where it is most needed,” Dr Birol said. “Governments need to give international public finance institutions a strong strategic mandate to finance clean energy transitions in the developing world.”
Recent trends in clean energy spending point to a widening gap between advanced economies and the developing world even though emissions reductions are far more cost-effective in the latter. Emerging and developing economies currently account for two-thirds of the world’s population, but only one-fifth of global investment in clean energy, and one-tenth of global financial wealth. Annual investments across all parts of the energy sector in emerging and developing markets have fallen by around 20% since 2016, and they face debt and equity costs that are up to seven times higher than in the United States or Europe.
Avoiding a tonne of CO2 emissions in emerging and developing economies costs about half as much on average as in advanced economies, according to the report. That is partly because developing economies can often jump straight to cleaner and more efficient technologies without having to phase out or refit polluting energy projects that are already underway.
But emerging market and developing economies seeking to increase clean energy investment face a range of difficulties, which can undermine risk-adjusted returns for investors and the availability of bankable projects. Challenges involve the availability of commercial arrangements that support predictable revenues for capital-intensive investments, the creditworthiness of counterparties and the availability of enabling infrastructure, among other project-level factors. Broader issues, including depleted public finances, currency instability and weaknesses in local banking and capital markets also raise challenges to attracting investment.
“A major catalyst is needed to make the 2020s the decade of transformative clean energy investment,” said Dr Birol. “The international system lacks a clear and unified focus on financing emissions reductions and clean energy – particularly in emerging and developing economies. Today’s strategies, capabilities and funding levels are well short of where they need to be. Our report is a global call to action – especially for those who have the wealth, resources and expertise to make a difference – and offers priority actions that can be taken now to move things forward fast.”
These priority actions – for governments, financial institutions, investors and companies – cover the period between now and 2030, drawing on detailed analysis of successful projects and initiatives across clean power, efficiency and electrification, as well as transitions for fuels and emissions-intensive sectors. These include almost 50 real-world case studies across different sectors in countries ranging from Brazil to Indonesia, and from Senegal to Bangladesh.
“As we expand energy access, we also need a global transition to low-carbon energy. It is critical to develop solutions that make energy systems more resilient to climate change and other crises. With the right policies and investments, countries can achieve lasting economic growth and poverty reduction without degrading the environment or aggravating inequality. The broader financial sector can and must play a key role in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement by mobilizing capital for green and low-carbon investments, while managing climate risks. The World Bank will continue to support countries that seek assistance to transition away from fossil fuels and scale up low-carbon, renewable energy, and energy efficiency investments,” said Demetrios Papathanasiou, the World Bank Global Director for Energy and Extractives.
“The need to scale clean energy in emerging economies offers a massive investment opportunity. This report shows that current challenges to get this capital to the right places can be overcome through a combination of smart policies, financial innovation, as well as bold collective action. The World Economic Forum is committed to enabling multistakeholder cooperation to accelerate progress in this important area, said Børge Brende, President of the World Economic Forum.
The report calls for a focus on channelling and facilitating investment into sectors where clean technologies are market-ready, especially in the areas of renewables and energy efficiency, but also laying the groundwork for scaling up low-carbon fuels and industrial infrastructure needed to decarbonise rapidly growing and urbanising economies. It also calls for strengthening sustainable finance frameworks, addressing barriers on foreign investment, easing procedures for licensing and land acquisition, and rolling back policies that distort local energy markets.
The report underscores that clean energy investments and activities can bring substantial economic opportunities and jobs in industries that are expected to flourish in the coming decades as energy transitions accelerate worldwide. It calls for clean energy transitions to be people‐centred and inclusive, including actions that build equitable and sustainable models for universal access to modern energy. Spending on more efficient appliances, electric vehicles, and energy‐efficient buildings can provide further employment opportunities, and can especially support the role of women and female entrepreneurs in driving change and improved gender equality.
IEA welcomes G7 Leaders’ commitment to reach net zero by 2050
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol congratulated the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations for their landmark Summit at which they committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and made a series of other significant energy and climate pledges.
G7 leaders concluded the closely watched Summit on Sunday, issuing a communiqué in which they set out their net zero commitments and called on all countries, in particular major emitting economies, “to join us in these goals as part of a global effort.” In this context, the leaders noted the IEA’s “clear roadmap” for achieving net zero globally by 2050.
“I’m very proud to see recognition of the IEA’s comprehensive Roadmap for the global energy sector to reach this critical and formidable goal,” said Dr Birol. “The IEA looks forward to helping governments design and implement the strong policy actions that are needed to move the world onto a narrow yet achievable pathway to net zero by 2050. In the lead-up to COP26 in November, I look forward to seeing additional firm commitments to improve and increase clean energy financing for developing economies.”
The communiqué said that G7 leaders had committed to aligning official international financing with the global achievement of net zero greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2050 and for deep emissions reductions in the 2020s.
The IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero by 2050 was released on 18 May. It is the world’s first comprehensive study of how to transition to a net zero energy system globally by 2050 while ensuring stable and affordable energy supplies, providing universal energy access, and enabling robust economic growth. In the pathway laid out in the IEA Roadmap, strong and credible policy actions by governments around the world drive a historic surge in clean energy investment and deployment, thereby reducing demand for fossil fuels, creating millions of new jobs and lifting global economic growth.
The G7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. Leaders of the countries have gathered together annually since the 1970s, alongside the heads of the European Union. This year’s Summit was hosted by the United Kingdom.
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