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East Asia

Emergence of New World Order out of Sino-US clash

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The United States of America and China’s relation has many up and down since the outbreak of Taiwan Strait status issue, Whenever, US Navy lifted than China deployed thousands of soldiers to Quemoy and MatruIsland in Taiwan Strait in August 1955.Later,Beijing was threatened with the Atom bomb, to end the agitation against the US. US president Richard Nixon ascribed Taiwan Strait status with China in 1972. Enduring conflict compelled the US to pass “Taiwan relation Act” from the congress on January 1, 1979, to help and maintain the peace, security and stability in western pacific and foreign policy would help to US authority to support on commercial, cultural and other relations between both countries. Therefore, Washington was lobbying to help Taiwan to get observer status at the World Health Organization (WHO) in the 73rd annual world health assembly while failing to maintain the preservation of the cross-strait status quo. Moreover, on retaliation by Chinese president Xi Jinping about Taiwan as under one-China policy to get and capture at any cost before 2050. However, this conflict would carry both superpowers to close any disastrous war.

Meanwhile, US-China Relation Act of 2000granted permission to China on trade. Firstly, the trade tensions were uprisings due to the US trade deficit with China from $273.1 billion in 2010. Therefore, on fulltime high of $295.5 billion in 2011.Preamble,US was malediction to pay $375.2 billion deficit to China in 2017.That imports increased $550 billion annually before imposing tariffs in which the comprehensive economic dialogue was convened in July 2017, on mutual understandings to adjourn$160 billion tariffs on Chinese goods, after the unfair practices of currency and manipulation of 1988 and 2015 Act of USA had compelled to China on massive tariffs.

Moreover, in March 2019, Trump warned most of the countries do not use Huawei and Telecom giant’s equipment in the battle with China for technological supremacy, and 5G works could use the company of spy. Furthermore, Trump administration-imposed tariffs to increase 10 to 25 percent on Chinese goods. The whole scenario compelled to Beijing to sign a trade agreement with Washington. However, the US blamed on currency manipulation through Act of 1988 under section 3004 against an opponent. It is a lengthy history of China to devalue the currency to gain and capture the market of the world. After the devaluation of Yuan as much weaker, which makes more competitive Chinese exports and buying to foreign currencies. Through, in global trade rules, if the competition among the countries on inflation and deflation currency could not evaluate due to get more foreign currencies though reduce capital inflow significantly hits on jobs sector especially in the USA and Europe. People’s Bank of China is under control by the communist party to let Yuan fall below key in 7.0 level against the US dollar and 8.5 percent depreciation from the exchange rate. However, the US department of treasury reported on January 13, 2020, before a great deal in which semiannual report on microeconomic and foreign exchange policies. This report assured about 20 significant partners of the US are involved with China on currency practices. The first trade deal would lead only $200 billion imports of US production and including $32 billion in agricultural. Moreover, $40 billion would be pasteurized through tariffs on Chinese goods at the end of 2021. Indeed, Trump ensured China all tariffs would be removed after signing the “second plan” trade deal.

The US and China’s relations got a new major twist due to COVID-19. After the breakout of the virus, the US president stretches the misinformation about China called “Chinese virus” and “Wuhan virus”. Moreover, the conspiracy theory lies the ideas about escaped from Wuhan lab. On the other side, China blames on US military persons on the carried virus and spilling in China. Therefore, the political battle of China is intense against adversaries, most of Americans about 66% believe virus divulged as the danger of dependency on China all manufacturing products, infect, the US was unaware from the abrupt global pandemic. It revealed the lack of necessary medical supplies and personal protective equipment’s (PPE) as well. The US must keep in mind the new raising for economic nationalism. The trade war between both countries will create uncertainty and global supply chain. Eventually, some business moved out of China like Apple production and the Tesla factory. If US government forced to leave US business from China through executive orders in which reestablish business in the USA to create jobs for Native Americans and secondly, a business must take ensures as a freeway, on its position. China is the first victim of the virus and reopening with $45 billion more attractive worth of markets. At the same time, senior US officials are proposing a plan to make China responsible for this virus and proposals are prepared to compensate that virus effects that economy of the world.

Furthermore, US state agencies convened a meeting on May 7, 2020, to begin mapping out a strategy as reflationary measurement against China, the whole meeting and planning put out on vanquish or anonymity because they were not authorized to reveal the planning. Trump and some expert have discussed to strip “sovereign immunity” of China. However, legal expert says it would not be easy to put back China even pass the congressional legislation which is extremely difficult for accomplishing and secondly, senior officer advice to Trump to cancel the debt obtain to China or to pay back $1200 billion amount with no interest and to consider levy extreme. Lastly, Trumps thinks about to increase one trillion-dollar tariff on Chinese imports due to damage to US cost. Similarly, coronavirus has killed 106000 Americans with loss of 28 million jobs. However, companies, corporation, oil companies became bankrupt and lost more than $700 billion since the outbreak of COVID-19 that would never easy to let the US boast up the economy after any solution about the virus.

China modernized maritime PLA Navy for the context of the new war. Moreover, this whole region relies on primary of American military presence on different offshores of countries to contain any immediate response from China and allies after intensifying the naval gape would lead the geopolitical competition US commentators towards south Asia. Last three weeks before Washington post published the secret report of CIA “The war with China would lead the major disastrous for the USA” And major superpowers would lead the US capital losses. Therefore, all bases of US in Indo-pacific command region would be at risk, especially US territory Guan might be the first concern. The primary issue of both superpowers on Taiwan Strait land. After pandemic ravaged in the world. Furthermore, the escalation was erupted last month to push back on the major war that would erupt a nuclear war. After publishing the report, the vast difference had been seen between Trump administration and US establishment.

On the other hand, Trump claims super-duper missiles. Moreover, the US wants to test nuclear bomb to deterrence against China. Besides, China is acknowledged throughout the world on economic hegemony. Lastly, after the end of pandemic US will lose her hegemony from the Middle East, South Asia because US pullout all forces from NATO on any stage in recent future, so Trump already withdraw from WHO. Moreover, Black African American George Floyd murder took a new great agitation against white supremacy. However, all about that weaken and isolate the US from rest of world which is beginning of the downfall of the US that could be enduring so on China will take a better position to change new world order on an economic basis.

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East Asia

U.S.- China Strategic Competition in The East Asia

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East Asia has been the most dynamic region where development has been internationally recognized. The regional politics of the region has developed a paradox that has flamed up the economic environment of the region. The trends have shown the increased intensifying security issues along with the strategic completion that has spread the security and economic tensions across the East Asian Region. In a global circle, China is known as the revisionist state. The historical manners suggest the reclaim of East Asia by the Chinese. This claim has intensified the relations between the US and China in East Asian Region.  The main challenge for China is to shift the US intervention from the East Asian region for the balanced equation at the strategic level. This might provoke the US and its allies in East Asia such as Japan that will help the US to jeopardize the Chinese rule from the region. The challenge for the US and its allies in the East Asian Region is more complicated because of the economic stability of China at the International Level. This might be a proxy war for both the superpowers in the East Asian region where the conflict may rise compromising the strategic stability of the region. The strategic location of the US lies in the actual form of ability and project power over great sustainable intervals. The strategic behavior increases the policies and shapes the allies.

One prevalent belief in the United States about China’s long-term policy goals in Asia is that Beijing aspires to be the regional hegemon and wants to restore a Sino-centric order in the region.

First, Beijing favors unipolar ties at both the global and regional levels and believes that with ongoing economic growth, this trend will continue intra-regional political consultation in Asia, influence on regional affairs is going to be more diversified and more evenly distributed. Secondly, although China expects some relative increase in its influence in Asia, it understands that thanks to the boundaries of its hard power and particularly its soft power, China can never achieve a grip cherish its role within the ancient past or to the U.S. role within the region at the present.

Beijing’s perspective:

From Beijing’s perspective, the US is an East Asia power, although not an Asian power, and its political, economic, and security interests within the region are deep-rooted, as are its commitments to regional stability and prosperity. Beijing has always welcomed a constructive U.S. role in regional affairs. At the identical time, however, Beijing also feels uneasy with certain aspects of U.S. policy. As a superpower, The US has been too dominant and intrusive in managing regional affairs. It fails to pay due regard to the voices of other regional players and sometimes gets too involved within the internal affairs of other states, lacking an understanding of their culture, history, and values.

The US and European aspects towards the South China Sea and East Asia should involve long-term perspectives of engaging ASEAN states. Such impacts will create room for the US to tackle China in the East Asian region. The development of any comprehensive strategic security policy is the need of the hour that assures one’s interest in the region. Both the states perceive a threat from each other and try to further advance their capabilities for the sake of safety and security. The US is not in a position to deal with the other power far away from its homeland, sustaining its military and protecting allies. Aggressive behavior in strategic competition can lead to unwanted results. The US would have to accept the strategic realities of China to normalize the relations. China on the other hand should rethink its policies in East Asia and Indo Pacific. However, as yet, deterrence has played its part by keeping states from a large-scale action. States running in the race of acquiring arms conventionally due to uprising strategic competitions are worsening any likely condition of conflict.

Key points for US:

In terms of identifying specific actions for a U.S. strategy for competing strategically with China in East Asia, a key element would be to possess a transparent understanding of which actions are intended to support which U.S. goals, and to take care of an alignment of actions with policy goals. Cost-imposing actions are actions intended to impose political/reputational, institutional, economic, or other costs on China for conducting certain activities within the East Asian Region, with the aim of persuading China to prevent or reverse those activities. Such cost-imposing actions need not be limited to the East Asian Region only. 

Conclusion:

The development of any comprehensive strategic security policy is the need of the hour that should involve joint military maritime exercises. The US and China have set their limits in coordinating military to military joint cooperation due to their desired interests and competition. Both the states perceive a threat from each other and try to further advance their capabilities for the sake of safety and security.  

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Summit for Democracy Attempts to Turn Multicolor Modern World into Black and White Divisions

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One of the most important takeaways from the recent sixth plenary session of 19th CPC Central Committee is that Beijing flatly rejects Westernization as the path to modernize the Chinese society and the national economy. Instead, as it was underscored in the plenary Communiqué, the country will continue to stick to “socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era.” The leadership will preserve and further develop the system that served the people so well over last more than 70 years.

This statement did not come as a surprise to numerous China watchers all over the world. In fact, the critical choice between socialism and Western-type liberalism was not made in November of 2021, but decades ago.

One can argue that the outcomes of the sixth plenary session are yet another manifestation of a more general global trend: The world has been and will continue to be very diverse in terms of political systems, social models and economic patterns of individual nation states. Moreover, the odds are that this diversity will increase further literally in front of our eyes. Instead of the “end of history,” we will observe more intense multifaceted competition between different types of social development.

One way to react to this emerging reality is to accept it as a positive trend that enhances the overall stability of the global social system. The more diverse and complex the system is, the more resistant it is to various shocks and disturbances. To make a rough analogy with biology, a natural forest, which is a very diverse and complex ecosystem, is much more resistant to whims of the weather and natural disasters than a man-cultivated monocultural field. Accepting the trend, we should focus on how to manage competition within the increasingly diverse and complex world so that this competition will ultimately benefit all of us.

The other way to deal with this reality would be to start fighting against social, political and economic diversity by trying to advance one single model over all others. This is exactly what the Joe Biden administration is committed to doing by launching an ideological crusade against China, Russia and other nations that dare to deviate from the fundamentals of the Western development model. To make its case, the White House has announced a virtual Summit for Democracy to be hosted by the US on December 9–10 with the goal “to renew democracy at home and confront autocracies abroad.”

This vision reduces the multi-color palette of the modern world to a minimalist black and white graphics of a global fight between “democracies” and “autocracies.” It divides the international system into “us” and “them,” into “good” and “bad,” into “legitimate” and “illegitimate.” Such a reductionist system, if constructed, cannot be stable and shock-resistant by definition: Any major international crisis or a regional conflict could spark high risks of implosion.

It goes without saying that the nations of the world should firmly oppose corruption, abuses of power by state authorities and gross violations of human rights. If the goal of the Summit for Democracy were to confront these evils on a global scale, there would be no need to make the event exclusive by inviting mostly US friends and allies. If the goal is to advertise the US political, social and economic model, Washington should probably delay the summit and put its house in order first. If the goal is to isolate Beijing and Moscow in the world of politics, this is not likely to work well for the US.

Nations of the world have a right and even a duty to experiment with their political and social development paths. This experimenting contributes to the overall social experience of the humankind. Only history is in a position to judge what models turn out to be efficient, productive and fair and what models will find their place at the dump of human delusions. And history has a lot of means at its disposal to punish leaders, who believe that they possess a “one size fits all” model, which could successfully replace the existing diversity with an imposed universalism.

From our partner RIAC

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The Chinese diplomatic force in the IAEA to confront Western leadership

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At the level of international relations, through China’s presence in all the relevant international organizations, and its membership in all of the United Nations organizations, specifically in the International Atomic Energy Agency “IAEA”, China aims to play the role of the (international balancer),  in light of its quest to maintain a certain level of competition with the United States of America politically and economically, this is in line with its desires to constantly play the role of the pole calling for (multipolarity and multilateral international pluralism through the Chinese political speeches of Chinese President “Xi Jinping”), in order to oppose American hegemony over the world and Washington’s policies to maintain its position as a single pole in the international community. China’s increase in its foreign investments, in order to enhance its economic hegemony over the world through its political and diplomatic tools with countries that have equal economic power with it in a number of (trade, scientific and technological issues, in addition to military and intelligence tools, as a reference for China’s new foreign political center).

  We note that the patterns of Chinese foreign policy is (the pattern of dependence, which is based on the high level of foreign participation in all current global issues), to restrict the attempts of the United States of America to pass its decisions internationally, and therefore China is trying to enter the membership of all international organizations so that China’s foreign policies remain more comprehensive, broader and more effective in the global change, and to change all directions of these issues and control them in the United States, and this is one of its new political tools that serve its global expansion through the (Chinese Belt and Road Initiative).

   In the same context, China focuses its external and competitive strength on its presence in effective international organizations, and rapprochement with the European Union, especially (France, Germany), despite not denying their relations with Washington, because of their strong influence in the global economy.  In addition to China’s reliance on the plan of foreign and foreign investments in countries that influence American influence through the Belt and Road projects, as well as China’s resort to the import policy of many resources necessary to develop its economic capabilities from certain European countries to open influential relations with them, leading to (the Chinese strategy to obtain  political support through the policies of alliances, consulates, representations, and its membership of international organizations), with the aim of influencing countries’ policies economically to pass important international decisions regarding the US challenge to China, such as: (the Iranian nuclear file, North Korea, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, etc.), to increase with this  The level of external penetration of China economically and politically).

    China is mainly aiming to increase its membership in international organizations and the International Atomic Energy Agency, to (create a new balance of power and get rid of unipolarity restrictions through the medium powers and small states that the international system prevails with real pluralism, instead of the current state of American unipolarity).

   In my personal opinion, the countries of the Middle East may find in the rise of China and Russia, and perhaps other international powers to re-compete the United States,  as a (real opportunity to advance the effects of the pluralism of the international system at the regional level, and this would create more space for movement and opposition or bargaining and flexibility of movement for all to confront the policies of American hegemony, according to Chinese planning with Russia), and this also works to alleviate those restrictions and American dictates, and perhaps the sanctions and pressures it imposes on opponents of its approach internationally.

  The strategy of competition between China and the United States has become China’s long-term strategy, which is based on (the necessity of a heavy Chinese presence in all international organizations and forums, which allows China to communicate with various global powers and balance its relations with them compared to Washington), as well as diversifying the People’s Republic of China for its relations and distribution of its power among the competing countries, which allows China to show wide options on all important issues, and the most dangerous is that this Chinese presence, which (allows Beijing to prejudice the foundations of its relationship with the United States of America and the other various powers around the world).

  China and Russia also aim to form an alliance into all international and regional organizations to change the current provocative approach of the American policies in their confrontation, especially those related to mobilization policies and American alliances against them around the world. The Chinese alliance with Russia was so clear with the (Russian Foreign Minister “Sergey Lavrov’s visit” to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, while on the other hand, both Kuwait and Qatar have received a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the CPC Central Committee “Yang Jiechi”).

    On the other hand, China is among the Security Council countries that have the largest number of (Chinese peacekeeping forces around the world), and China is at the forefront of the (most contributing countries to the international peacekeeping budget, in addition to sending naval fleets to carry out maritime guard missions according to according to the UN Security Council resolutions), and therefore China may play an important role in establishing security in many countries in the world, and this is perhaps what China plans to ensure its use, in the event of a decline in American interest in the security of many regions in the world, within the framework of (the strategy of pressure of the American expenditures, retreat and withdrawal from many places around the world and devote its concern to the American interior issues and its worsening economic crises).

  The point is worthy to be considered here, is the report issued in July 2021 by the (International Atomic Energy Agency), entitled “Nuclear reactors around the world”, in which he analyzed China’s plan to (establish the dream of nuclear sovereignty around the world by starting to build and establish about 11 reactors). There are other Chinese nuclear reactors under construction, as well as the (new Chinese planning to build other 29 nuclear reactors), while the International Atomic Energy Agency’s work report on the other hand indicated that the known total number of reactors that are actually in service, other than those planned for construction, and other reactors under construction, is up to  About 50 Chinese nuclear reactors, a step that confirms that “China is clearly shifting towards nuclear energy in the production of electricity, and depends on it directly in its industrial renaissance during the coming period, especially as it is the number one country in the world that is expanding in the establishment of nuclear plants, followed by Russia, which plans to build other 20 new nuclear reactors, while it has 38 nuclear reactors in active service”. Some leaks indicate the presence of Chinese nuclear reactors, exercises and tests in the “Doklam Desert” region on the borders of “Xinjiang” province in northwest China.

   It also notes that, from the reality of the report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency “IAEA”, its confirmation regarding (Chinese planning to become the first country in the world in the production of nuclear energy during the next ten years, in return for the decline in the share of the United States of America in nuclear reactors, which continues to the continuous decrease with the exit of new American numbers of reactors annually), as the future plan of the United States of America does not include the establishment of new reactors, which indicates that (the expansion of this type of energy tends towards China and Russia during the coming period, and these countries will have accumulated experiences, enabling them to dominate and control this new nuclear industry in various countries of the world, and this is what is actually common happening in the region).  Knowing that its uses will be mainly peaceful and to serve the interests of peoples and countries, so we may witness the coming period intensifying the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in many files around the world to study them, inspect different regions and various other areas to ensure (their peaceful uses of nuclear energy in many development projects around the world).

   Hence, we almost understand (the importance of the Chinese presence and presence and its membership in the International Atomic Energy Agency in the first place), given that it actually owns 50 nuclear reactors in service, and its contribution to the production of electricity and providing energy to one and a half billion citizens, and China also has new nuclear reactors under construction, so (China seeks to be near the International Atomic Energy Agency, to embarrass, restrict and limit the American influence on the one hand against Beijing’s allies, led by Iran and then North Korea. Therefore, China has developed a strategic plan in the coming years, which is based on the intensity of the Chinese international presence and passing its foreign policies and decisions with the help of its Russian ally internationally).

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