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China’s future political and economic moves

image source: Wikimedia Commons
Giancarlo Elia Valori

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On May 22, 2020 China will organize its largest institutional political assembly, the National People’s Congress. Institutionally, it should have been held on March 5, but it had been postponed to May 22.

 There are two obvious meanings underlying this political choice, which results directly from President Xi Jinping.

 The first and most evident is the return to full normalcy, after the now officialised end of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei and of the other minor ones. Secondly, it is the sign of a rediscovered political, organizational and economic operation, pending a confrontation between China and the United States that is expected to become ever less easy to resolve on both sides, but also strongly decisive for the new world geo-economic equilibria.

There will be about 5,000 delegates from all areas of the country representing the 56 constitutionally recognized minorities who,over a period of about ten days, will institutionally define the annual budget, the country’s annual and multi-year economic goals, as well as some important bills. It is a Congress that establishes China’s “global strategy”, albeit in a concrete and simple way.

Certainly there is still the block on the entry of Chinese coming from other countries, but workers have returned to factories and almost all schools and universities have been reopened, as well as shops, although there are signs of possible new spreading of Covid 19, which so far the Chinese government has not neglected at all.

The attention will be obviously focused on the Central Government’s Report, which in this case will certainly be needed to have the necessary consensus and support from all regions in the country, so as to avoid both the danger of factionalism, which is central to the CPC’s theory and practice, and above all to provide economic and organisational consistency and unity to all the work that peripheral areas shall carry out on their own.

 This is a typical mechanism of the Third International’s tradition.

I was once confidentially told by Deng Xiaoping, who also came from one of the recognised minorities, that they did not want Communism as it was achieved elsewhere, but just Socialism, albeit with Chinese characteristics.

 Without bearing this in mind, even today little is understood of the Chinese political system and of its medium and long term goals.

At economic level, in fact, in the first quarter of 2020 China’s GDP fell by 6.8% compared to the same period of last year.

 The sharpest economic downturn since 1976, when Mao Zedong died and the GDP decreased only in that period, and later started to always grow again by 1.6%.

A final important sign to Western analysts was sent by President Xi Jinping on May 18 last, at the Assembly of the World Health Organization.

Obviously the first signal follows the vast diplomacy of support and economic and health collaboration, which characterized China immediately after the outbreak of the Wuhan epidemic-pandemic.

 In other words, President Xi Jinping wants to eradicate the idea that the Covid-19 virus is only “made in China” – an idea that characterizes the great “fake news” that has alarmed the United States and so far collected 116 adhesions to the request – recently made by the EU – of an independent study on the virus origins and on the new ways of spreading among human beings it has shown.

The first information and economic goal pursued is to avoid – first and foremost – the worldwide defamation of China, of its economy and of its reliability, and also avoid having to pay large sums of money for repairing the damage caused by Covid-19, should some countries, just like the United States, want to resort to this legal-administrative and insurance instrument to achieve their real goal, i.e. preventing China from playing – for a sufficiently long time – its current role as global competitor at economic, political and military levels.

 Hence, as President Xi Jinping clearly stated at the WHO Assembly, China does not feel to be and is not responsible for any life lost in the world due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

President Xi Jinping also added that China reacted as quickly as possible – as opposed to the slowness of action in other Western countries – thus clearly perceiving the threat posed by the pandemic. The President also said that it was China that first spread the sequencing of the entire virus genome, through the usual procedures, i.e. the official transmission of data to the WHO.

Therefore, President Xi’s speech at the WHO is intended to reaffirm China’s centrality. This will certainly be reaffirmed also at the forthcoming National People’s Congress, but with another secondary objective, i.e. to underline the isolation of the USA and its “factionalism”, just when China is regaining – after the pandemic – the primary role it has played in recent years as the leading country of the new globalization, while Donald Trump’s “America First” policy is isolating the United States from the EU and from China itself and is reproposing an old “Cold War” tension with the Russian Federation, as well as finally rebuilding fences and spreading polemics in the Middle East and Latin America. Self-isolation or probably an old-style and “out of time” perception of the US global role, which is still inevitable but must be rethought without solemn and currently useless memories of the past.

This is the other communication, economic and political goal of China’s current and future actions, in this phase when the Covid-19 still appears to be retreating.

 Deng Xiaoping told me so very clearly.

He told me they wanted Socialism, not Communism. In Deng’s mind, in fact, Communism is Western stuff. Indeed, the Chinese Communists had rightly interpreted Marx, who did not want the transition to Socialism and the structural end of capitalism in the peripheries of the world but, if anything, in its evolved centre, namely Germany and Great Britain. According to the CPC’s documents, Togliatti and Gramsci – before him – had “made mistakes”.

 And certainly not out of servility towards the USSR that, at the time, was an unavoidable point of reference for the Italian Communist party (PCI).

Hence we should never think that the CPC stopped studying Karl Marx’s texts, albeit with creative intelligence.

Quite the reverse. Nowadays Marxism is often mentioned in China, as the theory for shifting – within capitalism – from the production of goods and services to mass financialisation that the Chinese government currently uses, above all, to propose – with extreme caution –  its entry into the world market.

 And Deng, who was always a dear personal friend, is now one of the two true historical references for President Xi Jinping, together with Mao Zedong.

Hence unification of China, together with the still necessary Great Modernization, in addition to those established by Deng Xiaoping at the beginning of post-Maoism, which was never real Communism, because it never set as its goal the transformation of the remaining global capitalist world, but its penetration, with Chinese and, above all, national objectives and styles.

Moreover, just to eliminate again this brand of “Made in China” virus and of adverse actions and hacking against the websites of Western research centres – which is an accusation made by the EU – President Xi Jinping has clearly stated that- when discovered and tested – the therapies should become “global public goods”.

Another strong signal sent by China to the West is clear: do not think you can make the usual big deal with the future anti-Covid19 vaccine because when we have it anyway – and we will probably have it before you – we will distribute it as free patent and we will not ask for additional costs or fees.

It is easy to imagine what could be the propaganda and geopolitical result for China in this case, which would find itself distributing modern and above all free anti-viral vaccines to all the regions, in Latin America, in Asia and in Europe itself, which have been radically and further impoverished by the pandemic.

What could Westerners say in this case? Could they say their vaccine is cheap, but better?

 It is easy to imagine the effects of this counterfactual propaganda.

 It is also easy to imagine the potential geopolitical impact of such an operation.

 At the next upcoming National People’s Congress another political and economic weapon of Chinese propaganda is and will be the reaffirmation of China’s political, scientific and financial contribution to the World Health Organization, just as the United States has declared that its contributions to the WHO have been frozen.

Where there is a “void”, the Chinese fill it. Westerners have left on their own, but they have lost both a possible ally and a major source of information. Bad choice. Opponents must be penetrated and not be cursed with a ritual that is very closely related to that of Protestant sects or American new religions such as Scientology. The eighteenth-century-style sectarianism is not a good way for spreading a political message – just think of the neo-evangelical sects that made Bolsonaro’s electoral fortune in Brazil.

Hence, for the Chinese, simultaneous implementation of Sun Tzu’s rules and the Thirty-Six Stratagems.

Finally, however, President Xi Jinping has not rejected the idea of a “large world analysis” on Covid-19, but regarding the global responses to the pandemic, not only the vague theories on its territorial origin.

These are the guidelines that, in all likelihood, we will see in action at the forthcoming National People’s Conference.

 But there are two other essential political signs from China that we must consider: one is the core of the future Chinese expansion, which is still Africa – another great void of Westerners that China is filling strategically and economically – and the other is the new Chinese attention- and of President Xi, in particular – paid to the Great South of the world. A legacy of Mao’s Thought.

In the policy line, already established for the national People’s Congress to be held on March 5 last, there are some rather new aspects: firstly, the new deadline for the eradication of absolute poverty throughout the country, which has been postponed for the meeting to be held next Wednesday, while the deadline for China to become a leading nation in technological innovation is still 2035. The same holds true for 2050, the deadline for the project to turn China into a world leader.

In other words, to make Deng Xiaoping’s Fourth Modernisation, the military one, the axis of China’s real technological, civil and organizational transformation.

Throughout China, the Covid-19 pandemic has in fact stepped up processes that had already been defined in the past by the central Government: firstly, the acceleration of digitalization, which has obviously been favoured by the “lockdown” that China has adopted – as happened in almost all European countries and the United States, where the closure of companies and distribution has forced consumers to inevitably resort to e-commerce.

Obviously, also in China, as elsewhere in the world, greater attention has been paid to what is still called – who knows for how long – “national interest”.

 However, this has not happened in the EU countries on the verge of bankruptcy, such as Italy itself, where any aid provided by the other EU Member States is only for their own gain, since they are obviously just waiting to swallow up what remains of Italian SMEs, and the huge colossal private savings of Italians, to rescue their banks.

In Italy an incompetent ruling class is waiting for ambiguous aid such as the ESM or the future, equally ambiguous, slow, vague and unclear “Recovery Fund”, as it was charity, generous donations and gracious concessions from old friends.

Another structural factor of the Chinese economy triggered by the pandemic has been a greater level of technological and financial competition among the countries affected, and also among Chinese companies themselves in their domestic market, which has obviously grown in importance and has largely replaced reduced exports and also imports, actually blocked by the combination of the pandemic and the trade war between China and the United States.

Socialism that makes once again “substitution economy”, as was the case in the 1950s.

Another economic factor that the pandemic has reactivated or accelerated, in China as elsewhere, is the major role of the private sector and the no-profit sector.

This will certainly be at the core of the next National People’s Congress, which sees local, ethnic and political autonomies strongly represented. Nevertheless, it mainly represents – ina politically significant way – also some technical-scientific elites, fully integrated in the CPC, which, however, have a strong influence both on the Party and on the “inner circle” of President Xi Jinping.

President Xi wants to avoid China losing it dominant role in the world as a result of the now hopefully ended pandemic. Indeed, he wants to redesign it at a time when, due to past and present mistakes, the productive, social and healthcare system of the United States and part of the EU shows strong failures, which immediately spill over and affect what were once called the “productive forces”.

As President Trump said, the United States has harshly asked for a gradual “decoupling” – albeit fast and certain – of the American companies from China. Due to the very characteristics of the current Chinese economy, however, President Xi Jinping knows all too well that – whatever happens to the Chinese economy today and in the immediate future – the Global Value Chains (GVCs), on which China cannot but fully rely, are all semi-destroyed.

A few months ago, Chinese companies were among the largest companies in the world to applyfor “force majeure” certificates to terminate existing supply contracts in the world.

 Certainly, the real attack by Trump’s America on the Chinese economy will be launched through the new Global Value Chains, which, almost certainly, will now encircle China, but will no longer penetrate it.

China will play its cards which – as we will see soon – will also be played at the forthcoming National People’s Congress, with a network of probable internal Chinese marginal areas that will very fiercely compete with the new probable external pro-USA network of new CGVs which -we imagine – will pass through India to Vietnam, and through Taiwan, to India and obviously Japan. This is the reason for Taiwan’s recent “revival” as an unlikely geo-economic opponent of China, upon US clear indication.

 Another issue that will be surely well explored by the next National People’s Congress – with President Xi Jinping who will be able to strongly innovate the Chinese economy, even with a higher rate of liberalization – is that of strengthening the State, so as to make it ever more effective as a “power multiplier” and as developer of a national policy line, “with Chinese characteristics” – exactly as Deng Xiaoping repeated to me – which combines military, finance, productive economy, diplomacy and intelligence Services, with a view to winning the real war of China today, i.e. the war against the USA which, however, no one will ever fight on the ground and with the old means of “classic” military power.

Advisory Board Co-chair Honoris Causa Professor Giancarlo Elia Valori is an eminent Italian economist and businessman. He holds prestigious academic distinctions and national orders. Mr. Valori has lectured on international affairs and economics at the world’s leading universities such as Peking University, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and the Yeshiva University in New York. He currently chairs “International World Group”, he is also the honorary president of Huawei Italy, economic adviser to the Chinese giant HNA Group. In 1992 he was appointed Officier de la Légion d’Honneur de la République Francaise, with this motivation: “A man who can see across borders to understand the world” and in 2002 he received the title “Honorable” of the Académie des Sciences de l’Institut de France. “

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East Asia

Predicting the course of US-China relations in the post Covid-19 era

Ayush Banerjee

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Authors: Ayush Banerjee and Dhritiman Banerjee*

The coronavirus pandemic is a natural threat to the geopolitical order. And it is needless to state that this majorly affects the currently international paradigm in a manner that the world has not seen before. Although there have been a few instances where pandemics have shaken the mortality rates, no pandemic has spread this amount of sheer panic among the public at large. This is largely due to the growing interconnectedness and the advent of the cyberspace. Just as the internet has influenced the lives of the most privileged public, data has been influential in academics and politics alike. However, this argument has its own set of problems that continue to affect public-politic relations in ways more than one.

In the same regard, one of the most strained and keenly debated relations in international politics is that between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. In the context of the virus itself, the virus originated in Wuhan, a province in China while the most number of fatalities have resulted in the United States of America. This idea fuelled with the new world media at the public level created an atmosphere of tension on such platforms. On Twitter notably, there were several instances of a tweet naming Covid-19 as ‘Chinese Virus’ spread like wildfire. This sparked a major controversy even at the diplomatic level. Even Donald Trump momentarily subscribed to the idea and deliberately worded his speech to use the phrase ‘Chinese/China virus’ to refer to Covid-19 at least 20 times between March 16th and March 30th 2020. The US Secretary of State- Mike Pompeo went on to accuse China of its lack of transparency, even scrapping a joint G7 statement after its members refused to refer to the virus as the ‘Wuhan virus.’ China has remained apologetic ever since. Hence, it can be rightly inferred that the relationship shared between China and USA have strained ever since the Covid-19 outbreak.

However to predict how the outbreak might jeopardise the current paradigm of world politics we must look no further than the Phase One Trade deal signed between the two countries. This deal previously ended an 18-month long trade war between USA and China. Through this deal, China committed to purchasing $200 billion additional foreign goods and services in the sectors of agriculture, energy and manufacturing. However, it is evident that in the post-Covid19 era, it will be rather implausible for China to adhere to the terms of the deal due to reasons more than one. The IMF estimated the reality of an unprecedented economic slowdown in which China is expected to grow at only 1.2% this year. Several reports suggest that investors are planning to pull out their investments from Chinese industries to fit in with the Western bandwagon.

The outbreak turned pandemic coupled with the authoritarian nature of China’s response to the entire situation has had a detrimental effect on their domestic economy creating various tremors in the anticipation of demand for various products and services. For instance, the 12 most Covid-19 affected countries account for over 40% of the Chinese exports. Nations like India and Italy that also make that list of twelve may voluntarily pull out of importing to China as they are set to gain from deferring of investments. These nations are also top suppliers of intermediate goods for the Chinese economy. The Chinese economy is quite dependent on external demand stimuli from the US and most western European states such as the United Kingdom. Therefore, until the point in time the US and EU economies completely recover from this pandemic, Chinese policymakers are bound to hold back domestic stimulus efforts as it will only have little effect if the global economy is in shambles.

The Chinese economy has crippled down considerably due to the ongoing trade war that has led to a disproportionate ratio of debt to the annual Gross Domestic Product. This ratio reached an overwhelming 248.8% by the end of March 2019 and it has only increased ever since. China has also been forced to restructure the debts of the Belt and Road initiative (erstwhile OBOR). This restructuring meant that the capital owed to China as loans by the contributing states have been readjusted to affect the projected collection considerably. As Covid-19 nearly decimates the economy of most developing nations, it is becoming increasingly difficult for these states to pay their loan back to China within the stipulated timeframes. Thus adding to the stress on the Chinese economy at large.

There has already begun a region-specific boycott of Chinese goods and industries, especially in conservative parts of USA, among the southern districts. Instances of racial abuse against ethnic Chinese communities have been on an unfortunate rise. These are all deterministic factors of public consciousness, if not, public opinion for the future that lies ahead of us. This reaction has already seen international spillovers and investors have become more anxious about investing in Chinese companies.

According to Deepanshu Mohan, the world may experience radical shifts in the global political economy post-Covid19 based on two factors namely, the relative degree of economic recovery in the affected nations and the existing domestic political scenarios in such nations. He further states that in the post-Covid19 era, protectionist trade policies are likely to increase in the developed nations who in the name of ‘supply security’ may disentangle trade relations with China which will inversely affect the current geopolitical world order. Donald Trump could also make the pandemic a focal point in the 2020 election campaign and therefore aim to capitalise on the anti-China fervour in the US and thus strain relations even further. There lies evidence for this as well. Trump recently presented his anguish towards China being categorised as a ‘developing’ state under the World Trade Organisation list and due to the low contributions of China to the World Health Organisation. Although this may seemingly appear appropriate accusations, this is far from the whole truth. The USA, themselves have cut major proportions of its funding capacity towards the United Nations especially concerning peacekeeping and security operations.

Minxin Pei, on the other hand, stated that the Covid-19 outbreak has led the average American to view the Chinese political system with chronic scepticism as Americans blamed the repressive Chinese political system for the pandemic with the Harris poll indicating widespread American dissatisfaction with the alleged Chinese cover-up of the virus. This poll also showed overwhelming support for US punitive measures on China and the removal of US investments and businesses from China. These developments could lock the two countries into a cycle of escalation that could trigger another potential international diplomatic conflict leading to numerous security issues and economic degradation. USA and China remain the two largest economies in the world. Hence, it can be inferred that this fallout of diplomatic and economic ties between the two states might amount to significant damage in the entire global political order and the globalised system of economies and markets. In the US itself, the number of jobs created since the recession in 2008 has been washed away in two weeks.

The trade war between the two economic giants had already shaken the world before the outbreak. And the prevalent fault lines will only widen in the post-Covid19 era just as a global economic slowdown is expected. Thus, it is imperative for the world economy that this US-China relation remains amicable and stable. However, the available narratives indicate a significant detour from the ideal stability that USA and China should normatively maintain to protect the global economy from crumbling down like biscuits. The USA has resorted to legislations that are actively anti-China in terms of financial relations and international trade while China has strengthened its protectionist response system both politically and economically during this outbreak.

The Covid-19 outbreak has not acted as an impediment to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea region either. China has recently renamed 44 features in the disputed region, a decision that is considered illegal under international law. This has been time and again criticised by the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. With increasing US-China missile competition a reality in the region post the abrogation of the INF treaty, the post-Covid19 era will likely see more prominent conflicts in the South and the East China Sea regions which is a strategically important waterway for both the countries alongside other nations such as Japan, Vietnam, Philippines and India.

*Dhritiman Banerjee is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations at Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India. He has recently published for the Millenniumpost, a Kolkata based newspaper as well as contributed to publications like the Geopolitics and South Asia Monitor. His interests lie in International Relations in general and Strategic Studies in particular.

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East Asia

Political unrest in Hong Kong and Global Pandemic

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Things started from a murder of a girl in Taiwan ending up into an unseen scenario in Hong Kong. Rising tensions in the region of China and Hong Kong, situation is getting worse. First of all the episode of extradition bill and now becoming the series of different surprises, the advent of National Security Bill is not acceptable among the Hong Kong citizens. According to the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, Hong Kong is ought to be the autonomous and free liberal region along china being constituted as a “one country, two systems.” As per this treaty, China is violating International law: which is a direct threat to its soft policy and international image.

 Secondly, the role of United States in Hong Kong is mainly concerned about the large number of U.S. Nationals working there especially at naval ports and their security. While on the national level the sustainability of democratic values and freedom in Hong Kong to whom these acts of China’s Communist party are challenging. United States being the global hegemon owns the responsibility to protect and keep the check on practice of international laws and its violation in any region of the world. Although the whole global community is concerned about the present situation of Hong Kong and its upcoming outcomes. States sign treaties and agreements on the basis of one’s predetermined political and social culture and works accordingly, so following the current scenario the Protest in Hong Kong is going to be game changing event. If the bill passed, Hong Kong will be a Chinese administered territory like another small city of Chinese Communist party but on the other hand if failed to pass this bill Hong Kong can have a victory to win the democracy and write the fate of their state in a new way.

Furthermore, the wave of global pandemic in the form of COVID 19 has already questioned the worth of human security. Millions of people are dying due to this disease originated from Wuhan, China. World is already questioning the Chinese role. Above all the differences, we all are human beings living in the world of chaos. Divisions led towards the more divisions. There is a dire need to fight collectively to this coronavirus. Being humans, we need to apply the only global value that is being human fellow. Social distancing is the new normal now but Hong Kong’s political situation is getting more anti distance campaign due to the political unrest. China needs to slow down the process. Human security needs to be the priority. Although to raise the voice of Hong Kong’s people social media can be a better platform. Let’s shake hands for peace rather than division.

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East Asia

All eyes on China’s post-lockdown Twin Sessions

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Even though parts of the country are still battling a minor rebound of Covid-19 cases, the general message is clear: China has emerged from the abysmal months of lockdown and is ready to resume business. This was made clear to the entire nation on 29 April with the announcement of new dates for the “Twin Sessions” meeting, the country’s most significant annual political and legislative affair, involving the National People’s Congress (NPC) and Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

Starting from 21 May, thousands of legislators and political advisors will gather in Beijing’s Hall of the People to discuss and vote on pressing issues facing the country. The gathering, which should have happened in early March, was postponed for more than two months this year due to Covid-19. Now its restart, reportedly cut short from a two-week event to just one week, is widely considered a reflection of the top leadership’s confidence that a level of normalcy can be restored in Chinese society.

Despite the reassuring symbolic meaning of the Twin Sessions, the social and economic landscape is bleak as China begins its slow recovery from Covid-19. The country’s economy shrank 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020, and a full recovery is far from a certainty given the ongoing nature of the global pandemic. The unemployment rate has risen in the same period. The world will be watching how the Chinese government addresses these challenges through the outcomes of the annual conference. Measures will not just shape the trajectory of the Chinese economy but also global objectives of economic recovery, fighting climate change and achieving long-term sustainability. Here are a few key items to watch for at the Twin Sessions.

Economic growth target

At every year’s Twin Sessions, the Chinese premier will make a formal report to legislators about the government’s work in the past year and, more importantly, lay out key economic and social development targets for the coming year. These targets include rates of GDP growth, unemployment, Consumer Price Index (CPI) change reflecting inflation, and poverty reduction. By the end of the meeting, legislators will vote to adopt those targets to make them binding for the executive branch. That is the order of business in a normal year.

In a year of pandemic, the severe disruption to economic and political processes have made setting the 2020 targets a contentious business. Now all eyes are on Premier Li Keqiang’s Report on the Work of the Government as the country enters the last week of May without a clear idea how the central government plans to set the speed for the economic engine this year.

This is a year of paramount importance for the Party. By the end of 2020, the country’s GDP is supposed to achieve a doubling from 2010 levels, a key political commitment made by the Party to Chinese society. The growth rate needs to hit about 5.5% this year to secure the objective. But Covid-19 has knocked the economy off track by a wide margin.

Prominent Chinese economists have weighed in. Justin Lin, a top economic advisor and former Chief Economist at the World Bank, recommended a moderate target of 3% to avoid maxing out China’s monetary and fiscal policy tools. As the economy shrank in the first quarter and is only mildly recovering in the second, China needs to achieve a 15% growth rate in the second half of 2020 to maintain the 2020 “doubling” goal. Lin argues that even if China is able to stimulate economic expansion to that level, it should opt for a slightly lower target to save some ammunition for next year. “It is totally acceptable to defer the (doubling) goal to next year,” he told the audience of a Peking University webinar on 15 May.

On the other hand, Ma Jun, chairman of China Green Finance Committee and a member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee, has advocated for an outright abandonment of any economic growth target for 2020, citing concerns that chasing unrealistic targets will lead to massive stimulus measures in debt-driven infrastructure building that is often short-sighted and ill-considered.

A 13 May article by He Lifeng, the head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic policymaking body, indicates that the government may still choose to adhere to its original economic goal. “We should make sure we complete the task of building a moderately prosperous society,” he wrote. Doubling GDP by 2020 is a key component of that vision.

Stimulus package

The growth rate target is closely linked with how China determines the size of its economic stimulus package. According to the 2015 Budget Law, key components of the fiscal toolbox, including quotas for central government and local government bond issuance, must be approved by the National People’s Congress.

Liu Yuanchun, vice president of Renmin University, told Caijing magazine that to create 1% GDP growth, fiscal spending should reach 1.2-1.4 trillion yuan (US$170-200 billion).

By the end of April, the Ministry of Finance had front-loaded the local government bond issuance quota to the tune of 2.29 trillion yuan (US$320 billion), and before total annual quotas could be approved at the Twin Sessions. The majority of local government special bonds go into infrastructure projects such as railway construction and public transportation, whose carbon footprints will have implications for global efforts to address climate change.

Green legislation and planning

Covid-19 has triggered a national conversation about the relationship between humans and nature, as scientists have linked the novel coronavirus to human contact with wild animals. The conversation was quickly followed by legislative actions. On 24 February, the NPC Standing Committee passed a decision banning consumption of wild animals for food, leaving only limited exemptions for certain species commonly bred in captivity. The national legislature is expected to revamp the Wildlife Protection Law following the decision. According to a legislative plan released by the NPC Standing Committee, the law revision process will likely culminate in 2021. Therefore, this year’s Twin Sessions probably won’t see definitive progress on the Wildlife Protection law, even though legislators may use the platform to submit proposals and recommendations.

Meanwhile, deliberations on the 14th Five Year Plan (2021-2025) will start in earnest this year, ready for its delivery to the next Twin Sessions in 2021 for final approval. According to schedules released by national authorities, draft versions of sectoral 14th Five Year Plans (such as for renewable energy) should be available for comment in late 2020.  

In a critical year for China’s political and economic calendar, the pandemic has created unprecedented disruption. The coming week will demonstrate how China plans to pull itself back on track, with outcomes that will have far-reaching global consequences.

From our partner chinadialogue

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