Borderlands across the Horn of Africa are isolated, poor, and insecure, yet they hold real economic potential driven by a wealth of natural resources and some of the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
According to a recent World Bank report, “From Isolation to Integration: An Overview of the Borderlands of the Horn of Africa,” the pathways to economic prosperity in the region are hampered by isolation, conflict, displacement, poverty and rapid population growth, mainly within the borderland clusters of Karamoja, Borana, Somali/Mandera, and Dikhil. The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has identified these areas as having historically suffered from underinvestment and whose challenges and vulnerabilities cannot be tackled by national action alone.
Currently, population growth within the Horn of Africa averages 3% a year and the population are expected to double every 23 years, the report notes. Such rapid population growth coupled with a bulging young population poses a challenge for sustaining incomes and livelihoods and slowed poverty reduction efforts in already marginalized borderland regions.
The report outlines some of the key constraints in the borderlands, including limited access to infrastructure, social services, and livelihoods, and hybrid, often weak, governance systems. The drivers of fragility, including climatic crises and violent extremism operate across national boundaries, as do the means by which people cope. Freedom of movement for people and goods is essential for intercommunity trade, livelihoods and survival. Yet it is often restricted by some states for security reasons. Regional collaboration is essential to deal with cross-border issues.
“Given the various drivers of fragility in the Horn of Africa, including high levels of poverty, environmental degradation, weak formal and informal institutions, conflict and forced displacement, there is an urgent need to invest in the systemic resilience of the region and importantly the borderlands, to enhance their capacities to prepare for and respond effectively to shocks and stresses, and to achieve development goals,” said Varalakshmi Vemuru, Lead Social Development Specialist at the World Bank and Lead author of the Report.
By highlighting the need for a borderlands approach, the report encourages policymakers to prioritize the particular histories and contexts of border regions and the communities living in them. The borderlands approach seeks to address the drivers of fragility in the Horn of Africa through facilitation of mobility and trade as central to livelihoods in the region. The report highlights a few principles to deepen resilience through mobility and trade in the region. It recommends prioritization of the poor and vulnerable, particularly youths and women to further enhance household incomes within borderland communities. Integration of citizen engagement within development projects in borderlands may help institutionalize a community-driven approach to promote participation, accountability and transparency.
The report also notes that cross-border initiatives need to be multisectoral and must address livelihoods, institutions, and stability/security. Central to this response is a call for regional integration through additional support to existing development initiatives including those formulated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the African Union on borderlands, to strengthen platforms for dialogue as well as technical capacities. These should target policies to enhance trade and mobility, shared management of land and water resources and shared cross-border development planning plus investments in infrastructure and socio-economic services.
Global development efforts should increase focus on fragile states in light of COVID-19 crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic is aggravating inequality, poverty and insecurity in vulnerable, or fragile, countries and territories, making it more important than ever to focus development efforts on such places, according to a new OECD report.
States of Fragility 2020 finds that progress on several UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – including the crucial Goal 16 relating to peace, justice and strong institutions – has stagnated or declined in fragile locations in recent years. The coronavirus crisis is hurting incomes and stability in already poor and vulnerable countries, as well as health and education – two key building blocks of sustainable development in fragile states.
“COVID-19 is a global systemic shock that is exacerbating fragility and risks, holding back progress on the Sustainable Development Goals,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “As we continue to fight the worst health, economic and social crisis in nearly a century, we must put people at the centre of our development co-operation efforts on addressing fragility.”
Defining fragility as the combination of exposure to risk in five areas – economic, environmental, political, social and security – and the insufficient capacity of the state or system to manage, absorb or mitigate those risks, the OECD estimates that 23% of the world’s population, and 77% of those classified before COVID-19 as extremely poor, live in “fragile” contexts. The report finds only small improvements in fragility in the 57 countries and territories it examines.
COVID-19 is adding to economic, health and societal vulnerabilities, exacerbating existing pressures driving fragility, conflict and violence, the report says. In places where violence is prevailing or increasing, mitigating the impact of COVID-19 will require greater peacebuilding efforts. Initial pandemic response measures taken by governments in some fragile locations risk compounding poverty, inequality, social fragmentation and political repression, thus adding to the root causes of conflict and fragility.
The report notes that Official Development Assistance (ODA) has become an important source of support to help fragile states onto sustainable and self-reliant pathways. It calls for it to be protected and renewed to meet the challenges of the post-COVID-19 world, particularly as measures imposed to limit the spread of the virus are affecting the ability of civil society, multilateral and humanitarian organisations to operate in fragile locations.
From 2010 to 2018, members of the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC) increased their bilateral assistance to priority sectors in fragile places, both in volume and as a proportion of total ODA. Humanitarian ODA also rose by 44% in the same period. Yet ODA for peace remains low compared to humanitarian and development finance. DAC members spent 25% of their ODA to fragile contexts on humanitarian assistance in 2018 but only 4% and 13% respectively on prevention and peacebuilding.
The report says there is a need to focus more financing on targeting the underlying drivers of fragility. Addressing fragility also requires an approach based on local needs, priorities and resilience.
Pandemic Threatens Human Capital Gains of the Past Decade
The COVID-19 pandemic threatens hard-won gains in health and education over the past decade, especially in the poorest countries, a new World Bank Group analysis finds. Investments in human capital—the knowledge, skills, and health that people accumulate over their lives—are key to unlocking a child’s potential and to improving economic growth in every country.
The World Bank Group’s 2020 Human Capital Index includes health and education data for 174 countries – covering 98 percent of the world’s population – up to March 2020, providing a pre-pandemic baseline on the health and education of children. The analysis shows that pre-pandemic, most countries had made steady progress in building human capital of children, with the biggest strides made in low-income countries. Despite this progress, and even before the effects of the pandemic, a child born in a typical country could expect to achieve just 56 percent of their potential human capital, relative to a benchmark of complete education and full health.
Twelve Pacific Island Countries were included in this Index. Based on the report, a child born today in the Pacific Islands will on average reach 48 percent of his or her full potential, significantly lower than the global benchmark, with the lowest scoring countries being Solomon Islands and Marshall Islands at 42 percent, and Papua New Guinea at 43 percent. Stronger performing countries in the Pacific include Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Tonga and Palau.
“The pandemic puts at risk the decade’s progress in building human capital, including the improvements in health, survival rates, school enrollment, and reduced stunting. The economic impact of the pandemic has been particularly deep for women and for the most disadvantaged families, leaving many vulnerable to food insecurity and poverty,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Protecting and investing in people is vital as countries work to lay the foundation for sustainable, inclusive recoveries and future growth.”
Due to the pandemic’s impact, most children – more than 1 billion – have been out of school and could lose out, on average, half a year of schooling, adjusted for learning, translating into considerable monetary losses. Data also shows significant disruptions to essential health services for women and children, with many children missing out on crucial vaccinations.
In the Pacific, many countries are responding to multiple crises; with response and recovery efforts continuing following April’s Tropical Cyclone Harold that caused widespread destruction in Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga. The region had also been recovering from one of the worst measles outbreaks recorded, affecting American Samoa, Fiji, Kiribati, Tonga and, most significantly, Samoa – where the outbreak claimed 83 lives, the majority of who were young children.
Furthermore, the ongoing and increased threats of natural disasters and impacts climate change, with the added burden of some of the world’s highest rates of non-communicable diseases and overall low health capacity continue to threaten the lives and livelihoods of Pacific Islanders, that has been further exacerbated by the impacts of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
The 2020 Human Capital Index also presents a decade-long view of the evolution of human capital outcomes from 2010 through 2020, finding improvements across all regions, where data are available, and across all income levels. These were largely due to improvements in health, reflected in better child and adult survival rates and reduced stunting, as well as an increase in school enrollment. This progress is now at risk due to the global pandemic.
The analysis finds that human capital outcomes for girls are on average higher than for boys. However, this has not translated into comparable opportunities to use human capital in the labor market: on average, employment rates are 20 percentage points lower for women than for men, with a wider gap in many countries and regions. Moreover, the pandemic is exacerbating risks of gender-based violence, child marriage and adolescent pregnancy, all of which further reduce opportunities for learning and empowerment for women and girls.
Today, hard-won human capital gains in many countries are at risk. But countries can do more than just work to recover the lost progress. To protect and extend earlier human capital gains, countries need to expand health service coverage and quality among marginalized communities, boost learning outcomes together with school enrollments, and support vulnerable families with social protection measures adapted to the scale of the COVID-19 crisis.
The World Bank Group is working closely with Pacific countries to develop long-term solutions to protect and invest in people during and after the pandemic:
- This support – to countries including Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu, – is focused on addressing the severe economic, social and poverty impacts of COVID-19, by working to support businesses and safeguard jobs, and advance the reforms needed to shorten the time to recovery, and build conditions for broad-based and sustainable growth.
- In PNG, on top of extensive support for COVID-19 emergency response efforts, as well as improvements in rural health services through the IMPACT Health Project, the Bank is also expanding its successful youth employment project into Lae, the industrial hub of PNG, to create more job opportunities for young people, as well as supporting the growth and diversification of PNG’s agriculture sector.
- The Bank is also supporting Pacific countries like Samoa and Tonga, through a regional Pacific Resilience Program, a series of projects to strengthen countries’ resilience to natural disasters and climate change, including building disaster-resilient school buildings and classrooms to ensure children have safe and conducive learning spaces before, during and after disasters.
Ambitious, evidence-driven policy measures in health, education, and social protection can recover lost ground and pave the way for today’s children to surpass the human capital achievements and quality of life of the generations that preceded them. Fully realizing the creative promise embodied in each child has never been more important.
The World Bank Group, one of the largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries, is taking broad, fast action to help developing countries strengthen their pandemic response. We are supporting public health interventions, working to ensure the flow of critical supplies and equipment, and helping the private sector continue to operate and sustain jobs. We will be deploying up to $160 billion in financial support over 15 months to help more than 100 countries protect the poor and vulnerable, support businesses, and bolster economic recovery. This includes $50 billion of new IDA resources through grants and highly concessional loans.
Building confidence crucial amid an uncertain economic recovery
With the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to threaten jobs, businesses and the health and well-being of millions amid exceptional uncertainty, building confidence will be crucial to ensure that economies recover and adapt, says the OECD’s Interim Economic Outlook.
After an unprecedented collapse in the first half of the year, economic output recovered swiftly following the easing of containment measures and the initial re-opening of businesses, but the pace of recovery has lost some momentum more recently. New restrictions being imposed in some countries to tackle the resurgence of the virus are likely to have slowed growth, the report says.
Uncertainty remains high and the strength of the recovery varies markedly between countries and between business sectors. Prospects for an inclusive, resilient and sustainable economic growth will depend on a range of factors including the likelihood of new outbreaks of the virus, how well individuals observe health measures and restrictions, consumer and business confidence, and the extent to which government support to maintain jobs and help businesses succeeds in boosting demand.
The Interim Economic Outlook projects global GDP to fall by 4½ per cent this year, before growing by 5% in 2021. The forecasts are less negative than those in OECD’s June Economic Outlook, due primarily to better than expected outcomes for China and the United States in the first half of this year and a response by governments on a massive scale. However, output in many countries at the end of 2021 will still be below the levels at the end of 2019, and well below what was projected prior to the pandemic.
If the threat from COVID-19 fades more quickly than expected, improved business and consumer confidence could boost global activity sharply in 2021. But a stronger resurgence of the virus, or more stringent lockdowns could cut 2-3 percentage points from global growth in 2021, with even higher unemployment and a prolonged period of weak investment.
Presenting the Interim Economic Outlook, covering G20 economies, OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said: “The world is facing an acute health crisis and the most dramatic economic slowdown since the Second World War. The end is not yet in sight but there is still much policymakers can do to help build confidence.”
She added: “It is important that governments avoid the mistake of tightening fiscal policy too quickly, as happened after the last financial crisis. Without continued government support, bankruptcies and unemployment could rise faster than warranted and take a toll on people’s livelihoods for years to come. Policymakers have the opportunity of a lifetime to implement truly sustainable recovery plans that reboot the economy and generate investment in the digital upgrades much needed by small and medium-sized companies, as well as in green infrastructure, transport and housing to build back a better and greener economy.”
The report warns that many businesses in the service sectors most affected by shutdowns, such as transport, entertainment and leisure, could become insolvent if demand does not recover, triggering large-scale job losses. Rising unemployment is also likely to worsen the risk of poverty and deprivation for millions of informal workers, particularly in emerging-market economies.
The rapid reaction of policymakers in many countries to buffer the initial blow to incomes and jobs prevented an even larger drop in output. The Interim Outlook says it is essential for governments not to repeat mistakes of past recessions but to continue to provide fiscal, financial and other policy support at the current stage of the recovery and for 2021. Such measures should be flexible enough to adapt to changing conditions and become more targeted.
Continued state support needs to be increasingly conditioned on broader environmental, economic and social objectives. Better targeting of support to where it is needed most will improve prospects, particularly for the unemployed and the low skilled – groups who too often miss out on training – and for youths. The report acknowledges that a balance needs to be struck between providing immediate support to strengthen the recovery while encouraging workers and businesses in hard-hit sectors to move into more promising activities.
Support also needs to be focussed on viable businesses, moving away from debt into equity, to help them to invest in digitalisation, and in the products and services our society will need in the decades ahead. Far stronger commitment needs to be devoted to address climate change in recovery plans, in particular conditioning support on greater investment in green energy, infrastructure, transport and housing.
At the same time, and with the virus continuing to spread, investing in health professionals and systems must remain a priority. The OECD says global co-operation and co-ordination are essential, as greater funding and multilateral efforts will be needed to ensure that affordable vaccines and treatments will be deployed rapidly in all countries when available.
The release of the Interim Economic Outlook follows an OECD Ministerial Roundtable at which Secretary-General Angel Gurría called for countries to go further in greening the stimulus packages they have announced to tackle the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in order to drive sustainable, inclusive, resilient economic growth and improve well-being.
“Climate change and biodiversity loss are the next crises around the corner and we are running out of time to tackle them,” he said. “Green recovery measures are a win-win option as they can improve environmental outcomes while boosting economic activity and enhancing well-being for all.”
Global development efforts should increase focus on fragile states in light of COVID-19 crisis
The COVID-19 pandemic is aggravating inequality, poverty and insecurity in vulnerable, or fragile, countries and territories, making it more important...
South Sudan: Progress on peace agreement ‘limps along’
Although the transitional government in South Sudan continues to function, with state governors now appointed, among other developments, progress on...
More research needed into COVID-19 effects on children
More research is needed into factors that increase the risk of severe COVID-19 disease among children and adolescents, the head...
Justice for Justice!
A country where justice is served to affluent people only, however the poverty stricken suffer. Where justice and law are...
Israel and its Image After the 1967 War
The war of 1967, or the Six Day War as it has come to be known, was a war which...
Euthanasia, Living Will and The Analysis In India
Euthanasia, i.e. mercy killing, refers to the act of painlessly putting to death a person who is either very old...
Transition of Balance of Power from Unipolar to Multipolar World Order
The international system may be described as a complex system of social, scientific, political, military and technological systems. This dynamic...
Eastern Europe3 days ago
Azerbaijan-Russia Ties Face Increasing Challenges
Environment3 days ago
Nature: Humanity at a crossroads
Middle East3 days ago
Will They or Won’t They? Saudi Recognition of Israel is the $64,000 Question
New Social Compact3 days ago
Contextualizing the causes of rape: Battle of ‘wrong’ perceptions
Defense2 days ago
COVID-19 and Challenges to the Indian Defence Establishment
Environment2 days ago
10 years to restore our planet. 10 actions that count
Reports2 days ago
Promoting Wellness Key to Developing Asia’s Post-COVID-19 Recovery
Newsdesk3 days ago
Partnerships Critical to Overcome COVID-19 Crisis