As COVID-19 restrictions continue to slowly lift in some countries while others remain in lockdown, PwC’s latest COVID-19 CFO Pulse reveals a sense of optimism among finance leaders about their companies’ ability to reopen safely. Seventy-five percent of CFOs feel very confident they can meet customers’ safety expectations, and 70% are very confident they can provide a safe working environment for employees.
The survey of 867 CFOs in 24 countries and territories also found that about half (49%) of CFOs are considering making remote work a permanent option where feasible, and 48% are looking at accelerating automation and other ways of working.
Kristin Rivera, Global Leader, Forensics & Crisis, PwC US, comments:“As a number of economies slowly start to reopen, it is becoming increasingly clear that businesses have a key role to play in managing the way forward. While governments are issuing broad guidance, it is companies that will need to determine when to bring their people back to work sites, how to keep them safe, and how to ensure this safety can be sustained throughout the crisis and recovery. The good news is that finance leaders are confident about their companies’ ability to design and implement effective return-to-work strategies.”
Key findings of the survey include:
Workplace safety: Confidence about workplace safety runs particularly high in Denmark (90%) and Germany (85%), both of which have reopened or are soon planning to reopen their schools, restaurants, and shops. Among the tactical measures planned to protect staff, 76% of all CFOs surveyed are considering masks and testing, and 65% say they’ll reconfigure worksites to promote physical distancing.
Remote working: CFOs in Denmark (72%), Germany (67%) and Mexico (69%) are most likely to consider making remote working a permanent option, compared to 49% of all the CFOs surveyed.
Employee protections: Many CFOs (43%) expect higher demand for protections such as paid sick leave, discrimitation safeguards and other policies and benefits. CFOs in Portugal (54%), the US (52%) and Malaysia (52%) are most likely to expect demand for more employee protections.
Staffing: More than one-third (37%) of CFOs expect changes in staffing such as temporary leaves or furloughs due to low or slow demand. In Denmark, CFOs are more likely than average to anticipate changes in staffing (51%). In the Middle East, which has also been heavily impacted by oil price volatility, CFOs are more likely to expect changes in staffing (43%) and layoffs (40%).
Supply chains: When it comes to changing supply chains, 51% of CFOs cite developing alternate sourcing options as the most pressing area, led by Africa (64%) and Turkey (63%). In Germany (55%) and the US (52%), CFOs are most likely to prioritise understanding the financial and operational health of their suppliers, and CFOs in the Caribbean (61%), Middle East (57%) and Africa (56%) more likely than average to plan changing contractual terms.
Revenues: More than half (51%) of CFOs expect a decrease in revenues of up to 25% as a result of the current crisis. CFOs in Denmark and Germany are the most optimistic regarding revenue, with 31% and 27% respectively expecting a decrease of less than 10%.
Cost containment: As companies settle into stabilisation, cost containment is a favoured strategy among CFOs, with 81% saying they will consider it in response to the crisis. 60% of finance leaders say they will defer or cancel planned investments, with facilities and general capex (83%), operations (53%) and workforce (49%) topping the list. Only 16% of CFOs are considering deferring or cancelling investments in digital transformation.
Recovery: Although 42% of CFOs believe their company could return to “business as usual” within three months if COVID-19 were to end today, there is a growing sentiment in many territories that recovery may take much longer. Overall, 8% of CFOs would expect it to take more than one year. In Malaysia, 23% of CFOs say returning to business as usual could take more than a year. Twenty-six percent of Mexico CFOs and 33% of Africa CFOs believe it will take six to 12 months.
Long-term benefits: Many CFOs cite work flexibility (72%), better resiliency and agility (65%), and technology investments (52%) as crisis-driven developments that will improve their companies in the long run.
‘Industry 4.0’ tech for post-COVID world, is driving inequality
Developing countries must embrace ground-breaking technologies that have been a critical tool in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, or else face even greater inequalities than before, UN economic development experts at UNCTAD said on Thursday.
“Very few countries create the technologies that drive this revolution – most of them are created in China and the US – but all countries will be affected by it”, said UNCTAD’s Shamika Sirimanne, head of Division on Technology and Logistics. “Almost none of the developing countries we studied is prepared for the consequences.”
The appeal, which is highlighted in a new UNCTAD report, relates to all things digital and connective, so-called “Industry 4.0” or “frontier technologies”, that include artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, 5G, 3D printing, robotics, drones, nanotechnology and solar energy.
Gene editing, another fast-evolving sector, has demonstrated its worth in the last year, with the accelerated development of new coronavirus vaccines.
In developing countries, digital tools can be used to monitor ground water contamination, deliver medical supplies to remote communities via drones, or track diseases using big data, said UNCTAD’s Sirimanne.
But “most of these examples remain at pilot level, without ever being scaled-up to reach those most in need: the poor. To be successful, technology deployment must fulfil the five As: availability, affordability, awareness, accessibility, and the ability for effective use.”
Income gap widening
With an estimated market value of $350 billion today, the array of emerging digital solutions for life after COVID is likely to be worth over $3 trillion by 2025 – hence the need for developing countries to invest in training and infrastructure to be part of it, Sirimanne maintained.
“Most Industry 4.0 technologies that are being deployed in developed countries save labour in routine tasks affecting mid-level skill jobs. They reward digital skills and capital”, she said, pointing to the significant increase in the market value of the world’s leading digital platforms during the pandemic.
“The largest gains have been made by Amazon, Apple and Tencent,” Sirimanne continued. “This is not surprising given that a very small number of very large firms provided most of the digital solutions that we have used to cope with various lockdowns and travel restrictions.”
Expressing optimism about the potential for developing countries to be carried along with the new wave of digitalisation rather than be swamped by it, the UNCTAD economist downplayed concerns that increasing workforce automation risked putting people in poorer countries out of a job.
This is because “not all tasks in a job are automated, and, most importantly, that new products, tasks, professions, and economic activities are created throughout the economy”, Sirimanne said.
“The low wages …for skills in developing countries plus the demographic trends will not create economic incentives to replace labour in manufacturing – not yet.”
According to UNCTAD, over the past two decades, the expansion in high and low-wage jobs – a phenomenon known as “job polarization” – has led to only a single-digit reduction in medium-skilled jobs in developed and developing countries (of four and six per cent respectively).
“So, it is expected that low and lower-middle income developing countries will be less exposed to potential negative effects of AI and robots on job polarization”, Sirimanne explained.
Nonetheless, the UN trade and development body cautioned that there appeared to be little sign of galloping inequality slowing down in the new digital age, pointing to data indicating that the income gap between developed and developing countries is $40,749 in real terms today, up from $17,000 in 1970.
Greater Innovation Critical to Driving Sustained Economic Recovery in East Asia
Innovation is critical to productivity growth and economic progress in developing East Asia in a rapidly changing world, according to a new World Bank report launched today.
Countries in developing East Asia have an impressive record of sustained growth and poverty reduction. But slowing productivity growth, uncertainties in global trade, and technological advances are increasing the need to transition to new and better modes of production to sustain economic performance.
To support policy makers in meeting this challenge, The Innovation Imperative for Developing East Asia examines the state of innovation in the region, analyzes the key constraints firms face in innovating, and lays out an agenda for action to spur innovation-led growth.
“A large body of evidence links innovation to higher productivity,” said Victoria Kwakwa, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific. “The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, along with the fast-evolving global environment, have raised urgency for governments in the region to promote greater innovation through better policies.”
While developing East Asia is home to several high-profile innovators, data presented in the report show that most countries in the region (except China) innovate less than would be expected given their per capita income levels. Most firms operate far from the technological frontier. And the region is falling behind the advanced economies in the breadth and intensity of new technology use.
“Aside from some noteworthy examples, the vast majority of firms in developing East Asia are currently not innovating,” said Xavier Cirera, a lead author of the report. “A broad-based model of innovation is thus needed – that supports a large mass of firms in adopting new technologies, while also enabling more-sophisticated firms to undertake projects at the cutting edge.”
The report identifies several factors that impede innovation in the region, including inadequate information on new technologies, uncertainty about returns to innovation projects, weak firm capabilities, insufficient staff skills, and limited financing options. Moreover, countries’ innovation policies and institutions are often not aligned with firms’ capabilities and needs.
To spur innovation, the report argues that countries need to reorient policy to promote diffusion of existing technologies, not just invention; support innovation in the services sectors, not just manufacturing; and strengthen firms’ innovation capabilities. Taking this broader view of innovation policy will be critical to enabling productivity gains among a broader swath of firms in the region.
“It is important for governments in the region to support innovation in services, given their rising importance in these economies – not only for better service quality but increasingly as key inputs for manufacturing,” said Andrew Mason, also a lead author of the report.
Countries also need to strengthen key complementary factors for innovation, including workers’ skills and instruments to finance innovation projects. Building stronger links between national research institutions and firms will also be critical to fostering innovation-led growth in the region.
Sea transport is primary route for counterfeiters
More than half of the total value of counterfeit goods seized around the world are shipped by sea, according to a new OECD-EUIPO report.
Misuse of Containerized Maritime Shipping In the Global Trade of Counterfeits says that seaborne transport accounts for more than 80% of the volume of merchandise traded between countries, and more than 70% of the total value of trade.
Containerships carried 56% of the total value of seized counterfeits in 2016. The People’s Republic of China was the largest provenance economy for container shipments, making up 79% of the total value of maritime containers containing fakes and seized worldwide. India, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are also among the top provenance economies for counterfeit and pirated goods traded worldwide.
Between 2014 and 2016, 82% of the seized value of counterfeit perfumes and cosmetics by customs authorities worldwide, 81% of the value of fake footwear and 73% of the value of customs seizures of fake foodstuff and toys and games concerned sea shipments. Additional analysis showed that over half of containers transported in 2016 by ships from economies known to be major sources of counterfeits entered the European Union through Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. There are also some EU countries, such as Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece and Romania, with relatively low volumes of containers trade in general, but with a high level of imports from counterfeiting-intense economies.
To combat illicit trade, a number of risk-assessment and targeting methods have been adapted for containerised shipping, in particular to enforce against illicit trade in narcotics and hazardous and prohibited goods. But the analysis reveals that the illicit trade in counterfeits has not been a high priority for enforcement, as shipments of counterfeits are commonly perceived as “commercial trade infractions” rather than criminal activity. Consequently, existing enforcement efforts may not be adequately tailored to respond to this risk, according to the report. Tailored and flexible governance solutions are required to strengthen risk-assessment and targeting methods against counterfeits.
As well as infringing trademarks and copyright, counterfeit and pirated goods entail health and safety risks, product malfunctions and loss of income for companies and governments. Earlier OECD-EUIPO work has shown that imports of counterfeit and pirated goods amounted to up to USD 509 billion in 2016, or around 3.3% of global trade.
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