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How Will Covid-19 Define Our World in the Coming Years?

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Pandemics among other calamities have re-shaped the core of faith, politics and economic structure of societies for millennia. Fear grips nations across the world as death tolls rise on an exponential basis, and much of the global population remains under lockdown. Our generation may be more fortunate than its predecessors. Living in the digital age, many are in a better position to face these shutdowns given their heavy dependence on technology (for work, socializing and entertainment). Today, people can still conduct meetings using Zoom or Skype, communicate with their loved ones and experience remote learning while schools remain shut.

Few things can be said with certainty nowadays, but one fact is well understood by now; in spite of the most sophisticated advances in science and technology, we are not past disasters of such a global scale. In a war-ridden world increasingly becoming divided along ethno-nationalist lines, no one anticipated such an outbreak or paid heed to warnings, as international powers remained busy developing their military arsenal. It is high time governments revise their priorities and realize that the ambit of security needs to expand, from being strictly state-centric to become more human-centric.

Microbes vs. Missiles

As is evident today, infectious diseases may prove to be as big or perhaps a greater risk for millions of lives rather than wars in the coming age.

Chomsky has questioned why the crisis came about in the first place. He calls it a “colossal market failure.” Ordinary capitalist logic dictates that no one simply cares, the corporate sector only responds to market signals. Short-term profit goals often absolve actors of any responsibility regarding the long-term consequences of their actions. Governments were not sufficiently prepared to battle a health emergency in an atmosphere where “public good” is perceived to be an outdated notion. “The invisible hand” that has dictated decision making for far too long has abandoned its most loyal followers, highlighting a dire need to revisit the free market doctrine.

Bill Gates’ early warnings have resurfaced in light of the current situation. According to him, endemics like Ebola should have served as early indications and pushed authorities to prepare for the next outbreak. “Time is not on our side,” he said and rightly so. Institutions like WHO are struggling to maintain their credibility as the international body is equipped to monitor but not prepare for these pandemics.

Given the benefits of science and technology available to us, an efficient response system can be built with the strengthening of such institutions and investment in R&D. Just as we have frontline soldiers and ammunition ready for a wartime situation, similarly preparations can be made to tackle health crises. Simulations must be carried out and a team of health experts must be devoted solely to the study of epidemics that are available to be dispatched in times of need.

Global Politics

The pandemic is rewriting international relations, as countries turn their attention inward and struggle to save citizens and their economies. What will this mean for global political trends?

One of the most significant trends today in international politics is the absence of global leadership. In the past few decades, the US has established its reputation as a hard power indulged in what Trump calls “endless wars”. This pandemic has brought to the fore questions of how the balance of powers will play out as a result of this crisis. The Superpower has exposed its ability to fight and bomb countries out of existence but unable to spearhead a campaign against a global health crisis. Instead, its administration has so far maintained a self-interested outlook and displayed incompetence on many fronts.

So far, international coordination has been pretty weak with the US and Chinese leadership having constant verbal spats over who was responsible for the pandemic. Global solidarity is not a matter of choice anymore. As much as the populist leaders of the world insist, countries cannot close themselves just yet.

Cooperation is a must in order to eliminate the virus. Accurate disclosure of information among countries is absolutely crucial in order to contain the highly contagious virus. Such updates would ensure that countries restrict travelling accordingly and test incoming travellers from affected regions. Exchange of medical equipment, medication and trained personnel is also necessary to assist the worst-hit regions of the world.

International and regional organizations like the UN and EU have to step up their efforts to combat the virus. The World Bank recently lauded SAARC for making an effort at cooperation. A video-conference between South Asian leaders was held in March, making it the first high-level meeting since 2014.

Responses to the outbreak are determining the political fate of many leaders. Trump’s frustration regarding his suffering popularity is pretty obvious with constant meltdowns in front of the Media. For others, it proved to be a blessing. The relatively low number of positive cases in one of the most populous countries in the world, India, is proving to be a boon for Modi’s political future whose popularity suffered a major blow as the country was torn by unprecedented chaos, communal rioting and mass protests against a discriminatory Citizenship Act.

Will this pandemic accelerate the shift of the epicenter of global dominance from West to East? Some are saying China has already won this battle. This isn’t so much a battle about democracy versus dictatorships, but that of efficient governance and the level of public trust in their governments. The “West” as a brand has suffered a severe blow in the wake of this crisis while East Asian countries are serving as a model for the rest of the world to deal with the pandemic.

The Debate Around Privacy and Big Data:

Some of the biggest success stories in the time of Corona came from China and South Korea. And this success would not have been possible without extensive use of surveillance technology. Mobile applications were used to track citizens’ movement, and even their body temperatures. Contact tracing also turned out to be an efficient means of keeping people aware about their proximity with infected individuals.

Years ago, this kind of sophisticated technology may only have been deemed suitable for tracing criminals or terrorists. One of the biggest compromises that citizens have to make, in the coming age, is giving up their right to privacy, a battle that the common man was already losing. Digital surveillance and big data allows for implicit police states to be created. Given increased anxiety around other unknown potential threats, citizens may be willing to cooperate with any such measures in the future.

There is no escaping the emergence of big governments worldwide even in liberal democracies. Despotic steps that would otherwise never be approved under normal circumstances could easily be justified until there is a major breakthrough in the treatment of this virus. The leadership of Hungary, Israel and UK are already being criticized for making authoritarian moves in the wake of the Corona epidemic.

Revisiting Humanity’s Relationship with Nature

Likes nations, individuals practicing social distancing are looking inwards to find the strength and answers to their dilemma. While scientists all over the world strive to develop a viable treatment to face the international emergency, people are encouraged to strengthen their inner selves, boost their immune system and maintain good mental health to battle challenges ahead. Many instructors offer free yoga classes online during quarantine to help people maintain their physical and emotional well-being. 

We may emerge from this pandemic soon, but how will we deal with other looming dangers that are emerging because of our earnest efforts hitherto to destroy the planet? 

Humanity has attempted, in the last few centuries, to tame Nature and attempted to conquer it. With the effects of climate change now observable in almost every corner of the Earth, the credibility of humanity’s invincibility has come under serious question in recent years.

This virus serves as a quick reminder for humans, as they evolve and progress, nature can catch up easily. Microbes can wreak unimaginable havoc on the planet. There are other man-made disasters that are yet to unfold before us. In the war for survival that awaits us, this will feel like a mere battle.Climate change is not just a threat anymore; it is a reality that cannot be ignored. Self-serving profit makers in fossil fuel industries and enabling political leadership need to be held accountable. Collective responsibility needs to be taken by leadership from all corners of the globe.

Margaret Klein Salamon of the Climate Mobilization says, they have been trying for too long to “get people out of normal mode and into emergency mode.” Going “back to normal” does not make sense because things were not normal as they were. The emergency mode is difficult to maintain, as people are not scared to see their loved ones suffer immediately as a result of climate change compared to the fear around Corona. But the fact remains; there will be a lot of suffering unless preparations are made accordingly. As mentioned above, our neo-liberal capitalist dogma will fail to save us from impending disaster.

It is high time we reevaluate our relationship with nature. Humanity is heavily dependent for survival on the ecosystems it attempts to control. If we do not change the way we behave with other living beings like animals, we will continue to face similar health crises in future.

Faith Matters

Many have asserted that Religion, as we know it, is in grave danger in the time of Corona as many religious festivals and places of worship have been deserted all over the world due to social distancing measures. But it is times like this that even those who are usually disconnected with their God, find solace in prayer or rekindling their spiritual side.

People have been forced to recalibrate their thinking during these times. When they see the calamity affect the upper echelons of their society, in some cases, their elected representatives and even royalty, they revert to the spiritual realm to find their answers and seek its benefits as a form of meditation as well, something that is highly recommended in these times.

Religion like many other aspects of society is adapting to the need of the hour. Congregational Prayer and rituals may temporarily be put on hold but faith remains a resilient force in these testing times.

Future of Work

The onset of Corona has accelerated the digital revolution. The digital economy is thriving whereas traditional businesses are suffering. Wherever possible, working from home may become a norm unless it’s absolutely necessary to resume the old routine. For some, it may even prove to be somewhat convenient, for example, working mothers, who are often overwhelmed by societal pressures and uncooperative supervisors when it comes to flexibility and understanding their problems. Add to those, poor and limited child-care facilities in a country like Pakistan, making it extremely challenging for them to pursue a career.

Unfortunately, not many will be able to escape the inevitable economic crunch as a result of this pandemic. This virus may leave millions across the globe out of work. Not everyone is fortunate enough to have the option of working from home given poor Internet facilities and the lack of proper privacy in their households. Distance learning can also never replace a fulfilling college experience.

While countries are worried about delaying the opening of their economies to avoid the crippling after-effects, some adjustments will have to be made to restart businesses. Organizations are coming up with different solutions such as allotting days for specific employees to come to work to comply with social distancing norms. Countries that have experienced the first wave of the virus and are experiencing a second one, like Singapore know that things are not going to go back to the way they were. They are operating on a circuit breaker model; something the rest of the countries may have to follow until there is a medical breakthrough.

Social Distancing: The New Normal?

How will human interaction change as a result of this pandemic? What happens when the lockdowns come to an end? Will the paranoia go away just as quickly? The pandemic has already changed our behavioral patterns in a lot of ways. Our basic social instincts may undergo a change creating a new normal. It may become second nature for us to avoid shaking someone’s hand or hugging our loved ones in an effort to protect them. Sanitation and hygiene standards will become stricter than they may ever have been in public places.

Online communication has already seen an unprecedented spike during these times. The ironic thing about distances is that it ends up creating and intensifying connections. People tend to talk more often with those who are physically not present and far away. Reconnecting with acquaintances and distant family members, who are experiencing the same dilemma as them, seems to provide comfort and safety to many.

Gratitude towards other people is growing as new heroes emerge in times of hardship. Healthcare workers, risking their lives to save others, are being specially honored from Europe to India, as people come out during quarantine to applaud their work. Many acts of kindness are also bringing people together. With many working to provide food to those in need, artists doing free concerts on Instagram and others help people by giving free workout classes online. A common enemy is forcing people across the world to unite and look past differences such as class, color, race and religion. 

Conclusion

Our future depends on the decisions we make today. Given the common challenges faced by humankind, does it suit any country to choose nationalistic isolation over internationalism? Our experiences so far have shown that nationalism may not offer the solutions required to battle future challenges and in fact sentence the entire humankind to virtual extinction.

What the world needs right now is responsible leadership that understands that a decision taken in one part of the globe directly affects fortunes at the other end. Humanity will do a great service to itself in developing a symbiotic relationship with Nature in order to survive.

It’s still not too late, for better sense to prevail. The reality of our situation should be as clear to us now as the bluish-black expanse above us strewn with stars as opposed to the thick veil of gray that had clouded our vision for so long.

The author has a Master’s degree from SOAS in Asian Politics. She is particularly interested in South Asian politics and likes to paint in her free time. Noor is currently part of the Research Division at The Nerve Center. Twitter: @NoorAftab5 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/noor-aftab-376919171/

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Indian Chronicle: Exposing the Indian Hybrid warfare against Pakistan

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In recent years Indian hybrid warfare against Pakistan has intensified manifold to malign Pakistan Internationally through disinformation and propaganda tactics. Hybrid warfare has mainly been described as achieving war-like objectives with the help of fake news, disinformation, and propaganda. The Objectives of Hybrid warfare are mostly to secure long term victory against the opponent. Similarly, India has launched massive hybrid warfare against Pakistan, which was uncovered by EU DisinfoLab in its report called “Indian Chronicle”.

EU DisinfoLab is an independent organization working to expose and tackle disinformation campaigns targeting the European Union and its member states. The organization has claimed that the disinformation campaign against Pakistan has been active since 2005, “a massive online and offline 15-year ongoing influence operation supporting Indian interests and discrediting Pakistan internationally”.

In a recent investigation EU DisinfoLab has exposed a malicious Indian campaign against Pakistan. In the report, “Indian Chronicle” EU DisinfoLab has exposed the dubious use of media outlets, NGOs, and fake personnel by India to malign Pakistan. The disinformation campaign mainly targeted the United Nations and the European Union through more than 750 fake media outlets and 10 fake NGOs. According to the report, “uncovered an entire network of coordinated UN-accredited NGOs promoting Indian interests and criticizing Pakistan repeatedly. We could tie at least 10 of them directly to the Srivastava family, with several other dubious NGOs pushing the same messages.”

According to the report the disinformation campaign is supported by the Srivastava group. The Srivastava group has helped in “resurrected dead NGOs” to spread fake news. The report says that “Our investigation led to the finding of 10 UN-accredited NGOs directly controlled by the Srivastava Group, which our full report introduces at length. Their common trait? The fact that they all rose from the ashes of real NGOs. Indian Chronicles effectively benefited from the track record of these organizations while pursuing their agenda: discrediting Pakistan and promoting Indian interests at UN conferences and hearings,”.

Moreover, Asian News International (ANI), a major news agency in India has provided a platform for suck fake news campaigns. The aim of the Srivastava group and ANI media outlet is “to reinforce pro-Indian and anti-Pakistan (and anti-Chinese) feelings” in India, and “internationally, to consolidate the power and improve the perception of India, to damage the reputation of other countries and ultimately benefit from more support from international institutions such as the EU and the UN”.

The report claim that the organizations funded by the Srivastava group-sponsored trips for European Parliament members to Kashmir. “The organizations created by the Srivastava Group in Brussels organized trips for Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to Kashmir, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Some of these trips led to much institutional controversy, as the delegations of MEPs were often presented as official EU delegations when they were in fact not traveling on behalf of the Parliament,”. Such sponsored trips aimed to build a positive image of India, while spreading disinformation about the alleged claims of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir.

Moreover, India has been actively involved in portraying Pakistan as a terrorist-sponsored state through its disinformation and fake news technique. For instance, India is lobbying strongly at FATF to put Pakistan on the blacklist.

India has also supported and sponsored Baloch separatist leaders and spread disinformation through their fake media outlets as mentioned in the EU DisinfoLab report.“These UN-accredited NGOs work in coordination with non-accredited think-tanks and minority-rights NGOs in Brussels and Geneva. Several of them – like the European Organization for Pakistani Minorities (EOPM), Baluchistan House, and the South Asia Democratic Forum (SADF) – were directly but opaquely created by the Srivastava group,”one of the examples is Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian spy who was captured in Pakistan.

The Indian Chronicle report has exposed the dubious face of India and the administrative structure of the United Nations and the European Union. Indian involvement in the spread of disinformation and resurrection of dead people and NGOs has exposed its long-standing for Human rights and democracy. Meanwhile, the reports have also exposed the administrative structure of the UN and EU, as they failed to notice the activities of fake UN-accredited NGOs and spread of disinformation through their affiliated NGOs.

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Hybrid Warfare: Threats to Pakistani Security

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‘Victory smiles upon those who anticipate the changes in the character of war’-Giulio Douhet

Hybrid threats are becoming a norm in Pakistan and if we want to move forward in this age of technological advancements, cybercrimes, and the use of social media, we must have a wholesome response mechanism.

Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs not only conventional forms of warfare but irregular with it as well. It involves propaganda, cyber-attacks, state-sponsored terrorism, electoral intervention, and many more means of multi-dimensional approaches towards war which are used by militarized non-state actors. The term ‘Hybrid’ came into use around 2005-2006 due to the Israel-Hezbollah war (“Lessons from Lebanon: Hezbollah and Hybrid Wars – Foreign Policy Research Institute” 2016) and became a hot-topic in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea. Using non-confrontational means can lead to internal struggles and crumbling of the target. What direct force won’t get you can be easily achieved by infiltration and multi-faceted resources. It’s neither character of war nor its outcome that defines it as a hybrid war, but the changing tactics (“State and Non-State Hybrid Warfare” 2018). In a world where everyone, from wealthy states to those caught in throes of hunger, is armed to the teeth, there are ways to achieve socio-political objectives through the use of violent and non-violent non-state actors.

Pakistan – A Target

Pakistan has risen to incredible heights despite it being a relatively young nation and this is only proved further by the interest international players have in its internal workings. Several factors contribute to the important stature Pakistan holds in the international community such as the Pak-China alliance, its geostrategic location, military aptitude, Russian interests in the Indian Ocean, Deep Sea Gwadar Port (One Belt One Road Project), neighbor to Afghanistan (a country existing as a battleground for proxies), etc. All these reasons make sure to keep Pakistan on the radar.

Though it may be secure militarily, Pakistan is still vulnerable to hybrid threats due to internal dynamics, numerous conflicting interests of nations in state-affairs, and increasing non-state actors. South Asian nuclearization has all but guaranteed that a full-fledged war between Pakistan and India is unlikely therefore the latter uses hybrid warfare to weaken Pakistan from within.

Evolutionary Nature of War

There was truth to Heraclites’s words when he claimed that change is the only constant in our world. The social theory of evolutionary change tells us that individuals, communities, societies, and states are always in a state of motion, continuously evolving according to the era. War is born from man, it is only fair that if a man changes, so shall war. It has become more complex; the stakes have raised from territorial boundaries to the maintenance of world order and preservation of state sovereignty. Wars are no longer fought on the borders, skirmishes aside, the real destruction takes place within. Due to the paradigm shift after the Cold War (Ball 2018), there rose a need for legal, economical, socio-political, and informational means of warfare. It is used as a way to undermine other nation-states in pursuit of national power; the international system is not only a race but also a way to tear others down.

Threats to Pakistani Security

To secure Pakistan from all sides, we must first analyze the threats it faces from all sides. Conventional Warfare used to be seen as one dimensional and it only perceived assault to be done through the land, air, or sea channels. However, now it is fought in various intangible zones.

·         External

India

India is a budding regional hegemon due to its political and economic growth including hidden agendas. Pakistan is perceived to be a direct threat to India especially after the launch of the CPEC project, perceived to be undermining its hold over the region, which is why it is employing stratagems of hybrid warfare to internally weaken Pakistan. Till now India has used State-Sponsored terrorism, funded insurgencies, operated terror cells, and even sent fighter jets into Pakistani Airspace as an attempt to ruin its reputation in the international community.

Afghanistan

There has been growing instability in Afghanistan which has led to mass migrations across the porous border into Pakistan, with around 1.4 million registered Afghans (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 2018) and 1 million unregistered (“Amnesty International” 2019). India has its claws in Afghan matters as well and will use it to exploit Pakistan’s weaknesses even after US forces leave the arena. Afghan Government’s poor administrative capability especially after the return of DAESH (Tribune 2020) and Tehrik-e-Taliban Afghanistan are threats to Pakistan as well as regional peace and are a major cause of lawlessness in the country and has a spillover effect for its neighbors.

Iran

Ideologically speaking, Iran is a sectarian threat to Pakistan and its Port Chahbahar stands to lose active traffic once CPEC is fully functional which means it stands as an instigator of hybrid warfare and it would be a risk to overlook it based on past good relations.

USA

Even after the Cold War, strategic rivalry and animosity between the powers including Russia, America, and China still exist. The emergence of China as an economic superpower is perceived as a threat to the US due to which there is a major shift in its defensive posture towards the region.

The US has shown significant interest in Pakistan due to its geo-strategic location but not all interest has yielded positive results. They carried out a surgical strike for the capture and assassination of Osama-Bin-Laden. Such a breach of sovereignty and security is a hybrid threat.

·         Internal

Sectarian

There are several lobbies in Pakistan all vying for their own cause. The Iranian lobby has sectarian undercurrents. Sectarianism has always been one of the leading factors of the divide in the Muslim civilization and is the rising trend of terrorism.Such conflict itself is volatile and is deepening the rift between different sects(Shia-Sunni) of Pakistan, causing unrest.

Economic

Rising prices of commodities such as flour and sugar can lead to social unrest and discord. Such industries and their stocks are under the thumb of a select few, the elites. With the right bribes and conditions, even they would agree to sell out society.

Non-State Actors

Non-state actors are groups or organizations that have influence in the state but work independently and have their socio-political agendas (“Towards a Typology of Non-State Actors in ‘Hybrid Warfare’: Proxy, Auxiliary, Surrogate and Affiliated Forces” 2019). They work on political opportunities and mobilized grievances. Groups like BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army), TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) are some of the major actors. Pakistan needs to focus on curbing Jihadist Terrorism as it is keeping it from leaving the grey list of FATF.

·         Technological

Information

It refers to the spread of miscommunication. Propaganda and circulation of false news through social media are a relatively common way to cause turmoil in a community. Once a rumor is circling, there is no way to erase it. India claims that Pakistan is spreading the false narrative of ‘Islam being in danger’ to justify its actions, although untrue, is something that the Indians fully believe now. That Pakistani Intelligentsia is made solely to create narratives under which to attack India. Such beliefs further antagonize the states against each other.

Indian Chronicles are a prime example of information warfare being waged against Pakistan.

Cyber

Channels such as Cyber-Jihad and Dark Web come under the purview of cyber warfare and are a threat to the fabric of society and its security in Pakistan.

Given the above discussed bleak prevailing internal security situation, Pakistan needs to formulate a short to mid and long-term response that curbs all external and internal parties alongside proxies from infiltrating and influencing the working of the state and affecting the masses.

For a full-spectrum approach, all domains should be covered such as diplomacy, defense, internal and external security, economic, informational, cyber, and media security.

There are steps to be followed through for active and effective quelling of hybrid threats. First, a strategy must be put for, then tactical action should be taken and lastly, the implementation process should be supervised and fully followed through.

The main focus of the state should be on deterrence towards, protection from, and prevention of hybrid threats to the state.

One must not forget that Hybrid war is a mix of both unconventional and conventional warfare, therefore a nation-wide response should include the intertwined operational capabilities of armed forces alongside political actors. Pakistan sees its security being threatened both by internal factors and external hostile/proxy elements. This is hampering state development. State-building and nation-building must go hand in hand if counter and deter such threats effectively.

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The Impact of Management in Information Security

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Authors: Sajad Abedi and Mahdi Mohammadi

Due to the increasing role of information security in the management of any society, public and private organizations and institutions are inevitably required to provide the necessary infrastructure to achieve this. In addition to material resources, management techniques also have a great impact on the optimal and successful implementation of information security management systems. The recording of management standards in the field of ICT information security can be designed in a planned way to change the security situation of organizations according to the needs of the organization and ensure security in terms of business continuity and to some extent at other levels (crisis management and soft war). Despite extensive research in this area, unfortunately for various reasons, including the level of security of the issue for governmental and non-governmental institutions or the direct relationship of the field with their interests, clear and useful information on how to implement and prioritize the implementation of a system over the years. The past has not happened until today.

The protection of the organization’s information resources is essential to ensure the successful continuation of business activities. The fact that information and information assets play a key role in the success of organizations has necessitated a new approach to protecting them. Until now, risk analysis and management has been used to identify the information security needs of the organization. After analyzing the risks, security controls were identified and implemented to bring the risks to an acceptable level. But it seems that risk analysis is not enough to identify the information security needs of the organization. Evidence of this claim is that risk analysis does not take into account legal requirements, regulations and other factors that are not considered as risk, but are mandatory for the organization.

Identifying, assessing and managing information security risks is one of the key steps in reducing cyber threats to organizations and also preventing the unfortunate consequences of security incidents that make organizations more prepared to face cyber risks. The risk assessment process, which is the first phase of a set of risk management activities, provides significant assistance to organizations in making the right decision to select security solutions. Risk assessment is actually done to answer the following questions: * If a particular hazard occurs in the organization, how much damage will it cause? * What is the probability of any risk occurring? * Controlling how much each risk costs. Is it affordable or not? The results of risk assessment can help in the correct orientation in choosing solutions (which is to eliminate the main threats) and can also be used in formulating and modifying the security policies of the organization. Risk management is a comprehensive process used to determine, identify, control, and minimize the effects and consequences of potential events. This process allows managers to strike the right balance between operating costs and financial costs, and to achieve relevant benefits by protecting business processes that support the organization’s goals. The risk management process can greatly reduce the number and severity of security incidents that occur in the organization. Risk management has 5 steps, which are: 1. Planning: At this stage, how to manage potential risks in the organization is determined and completed by developing a risk management plan. This plan defines the risk management team, defines the roles and responsibilities of individuals and the criteria for assessing identified risks. Documented. 2. Identification: At this stage, team members gather around each other, identify potential hazards, and record them in the organization’s risk list. Arranging group brainstorming sessions is a good way to identify hazards 3. Assessment: In this step, the assessment of identified risks is performed using the criteria defined in the risk management plan. Risks are assessed based on their probability of occurrence and possible consequences.

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