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A Hypothetical Scenario in the China Sea

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It is generally known that the modern world has a great interest in the East Asia region, were some of the greatest super powers in terms of economy, strength, population, and military capabilities, are focused.  For instance, Japan is a technological and economic giant, and at the same time it is a close ally to the United States since the end of World War II. It may not be a nuclear power, but no analyst can seriously underestimate the ability of the country’s Self-Defense Forces. Across the Chinese Sea, lies the greatest power of Asia; the People’s Republic of China. It can be seen as equal to the unique superpower of the International System, the United States. Economically and commercially powerful, it keeps a nuclear arsenal and armed forces that are constantly evolving technologically, although they are not as powerful as the US respectively.

Other states in the region with economic power and large populations, but with apparently inferior military capabilities, are India, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines. In addition to this, Russia should not be underestimated.  Even North Korea’s isolated regime with an unpredictable leadership constitutes an unstable (or even failed) state. The United States maintains compelling forces in the region on a permanent basis (US Navy’s 7th Fleet). The excessive US presence provides security to its allies from the expansionism ambition of Beijing. As a result, East Asia hosts a colossal financial, commercial, technological, and industrial center of the planet.

Furthermore, the Chinese Sea is of strategic importance for the world’s trade and consequently, the global economy. It is the bridge between the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, as this is the fundamental trade route for sea merchandise and energy. This commercial route is indispensable for the States we mentioned above as well as the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa and Europe. The concentration of an extended number of States, with their unique interests and cross-purposes in a relatively limited geographical area, renders the concept of a fragile balance of power. The contemporary International System of States is characterized by the hegemonic competition between USA and China, which until the present day, is mainly manifested in the China Sea. The scenario which follows is hypothetical, however it is not absurd. It anticipates a sequence of events that escalate as other States try to ensure their interests. The outcome of such a conflict is highly unpredictable, thus is perilous for global peace and stability.

The Chronicles

The Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) are conducting their annual large-scale aeronautical exercises across the Japanese archipelago near the Beijing-disputed Senkaku / Diao Islands, with the participation of allied forces from Australia, US, South Korea, and Great Britain. The presence of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with warships, Air Force, and Coast Guard vessels for the monitoring of the Japanese forces is a given. Simultaneously, at a close range to the area of ​​the exercises are operating naval units of the Russian Pacific Fleet, as well as warships belonging to the North Korean Navy (KPN) and Taiwan. Finally, observers of the large aeronautical exercise are from India, France, Brazil, Canada, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

The accident drives to an unexpected escalation

During the first two days of the exercise nothing noticeable happened. However, during the third day of the exercise, a small Chinese Coast Guard vessel executed dangerous maneuvers near a Japanese Naval Destroyer. These precarious maneuvers combined with adverse weather conditions caused a major maritime accident. More specifically, the two vessels collided, resulting in the instantaneous sinking of the lighter Chinese ship along with all of its crew members. From this moment, a dramatic escalation began as their respective Governments were informed of the incident.  What is crucial in this similar circumstance is the interpretation that will be given by each respective party involved. Tokyo and Beijing were definitely in the forefront, as those actors are directly involved in the accident.

Just two hours after the collision, China’s Foreign Ministry issued a vicious statement against Japan as it blamed the latter for an uninvited and highly aggressive move that cost lives of Chinese sailors.  China claimed to reserve the right to respond appropriately to the Japanese challenge. As expected, the Japanese responded to the Chinese provocative statement by issuing an even harsher one to Beijing, as it has accused Beijing of intentional violation of Japanese territorial waters, harassment of Japanese self-defense forces, and violation of the Law of the Sea. The Japanese demarche ended with the affirmation that the country’s armed forces were determined to defend Japan and its interests against any possible threat. Foreign Ministry Offices and diplomatic services of both countries monitored closely with great nervousness the potential announcements of war from both sides.

However, this nervousness escalated over time. Analysts from every corner of the planet were seeking for valid and quick information. Kremlin spokesman, in a public statement, plead for restraint, but blatantly sided with Beijing. They urged Japan to compensate Beijing. This apparently after a conversation between the Chinese and Russian President’s. Several analysts claimed that Russia’s stance reflected the dispute with Japan over the Kuril Islands, located close to the Kamchatka Peninsula, which Stalin annexed from Japan after the end of WW II. The Japanese government has not accepted the Russian occupation over the Islands ever since then. Tokyo did not formally respond to the Russian objections, as the majority of analysts might expect, but instead it was the White House spokesman, who in turn called for restraint and emphasized that the US government, having the 7th Fleet in the region, was ready to provide any assistance to its allies, including Japan.

It was commonly known that Washington was committed to the Japanese protection over any external threat. Consequently, the United States could not back down from this obligation as it would be perceived as a weakness by its competitors. The European Union was embarrassed by the developments.  While the French President called for an immediate convergence of the UN Security Council to discuss the crisis in the China Sea. After all, the permanent seats of the UNSC were held by the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom, almost all the states which were directly or indirectly involved in this confrontation.

Notwithstanding, the Chinese side had a different perspective on the issue. For the Chinese Communist Party’s (CPC) leadership, it was just implausible to shrink back on such an affair, especially since the news of the incident had been spreading rapidly around the world. A significant number of Western analysts regarded that Chinese authorities spread the news deliberately in order to apply pressure on the Japanese side. Simultaneously, the country’s government put military units on alert, especially in the navy, the air force as well as its strategic missile forces. People around the World watched of the breaking news of the gigantic Chinese military mobilization. Public opinion in China was offended by the Japanese challenge while hostility between the two nations resurrected as protestors outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing demanded an immediate response from China even if it entailed a full scale war. On the other hand, the Japanese public opinion was watching the developments with self-discipline, but a vivid minority demanded a fearless response to the Chinese threats. The Chinese government’s announcement left no room for misinterpretation. For the country, the Japanese movement was undoubtedly offensive. To make matters worse, the Chinese unhesitatingly rejected the French President’s suggestion regarding the convergence of the UNSA, as they considered the issue to be bilateral and demanded reparation from Japan. The announcement was so belligerent that it was essentially considered as a Chinese ultimatum to Japan which no one expected it to be accepted.

This was the time when a war in the China Sea was suddenly a serious possibility rather than just a scenario. Without warning, two Chinese warships fired missiles at a Japanese frigate, destroying it almost completely. At the same time, the Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that it was stopping all diplomatic relations with Tokyo until Japan officially apologized for the accident and agrees to compensate. All the military forces which deployed in the area during the exercise were ordered to be on high alert. An US destroyer rushed to aid the burning Japanese frigate only to be fired upon by the Chinese as well. An uncontrollable escalation was just around the corner. All US warships in the area were ordered to respond immediately to the Chinese fire. The Chinese side apparently did not expect such a dynamic and immediate response on behalf of the United States.  As so, the Chinese did not return fire on the American Naval War ships. This inaction by the Chinese navy resulted in the irreparable damage of three warships and hundreds of deaths of its sailors. Eventually, the Chinese Air Force did not show the same inaction shown by the Chinese fleet. A critical strategic advantage was the proximity to the area of ​​operations and the fact that, Chinese pilots, did not have to encounter with the Japanese air force and not with the advanced US Air Force in great numbers. The result was devastating for the allied force.

The General Staff of the belligerent sides as well as the intelligence agencies and embassies were in red alert. Information coming from the area of ​​operations was cataclysmic and often contradictory. For the Japanese side, this was the result of the Chinese Cyber and Secret Services asymmetric warfare against the allied surveillance and communication systems. The situation could easily be described as total chaos. Military units were be deployed in strategic positions while the 7th US Fleet was ready to assist its close ally in full strength. The balance of power was shifting at the expense of Beijing, a fact that the Chinese side realized in time. The country’s military Chief of Staff held a press conference in which he announced that the Chinese Strategic Forces were prepared to strike hard against the Japanese islands with nuclear weapons in the event of allied ships striking the Chinese fleet. This threat of nuclear escalation, by a direct nuclear strike, was reminiscent of 1962 and the almost nuclear war between the two super powers during the Cold War era.

The Chinese statement shocked the world’s public opinion. No one could be certain about the Chinese intentions. Governments, International Organizations, NGO’s and multinational corporations were more than restless. No official reaction came from any party involved, not even from the UN for a long period of time. Of course, away from the spotlight was intense behind the scenes conferences and meetingsto de-escalation the situation. The initiative was taken by the UN Secretary General, who, using secret diplomacy, was struggling to prevent a nuclear war. The stakes were high as it was assumed that the US Strategic Command was in high alert and ready to retaliate if there was a possible Chinese nuclear strike against Japan.  This of course would have resulted with unpredictable consequences for the entire planet. Those hours were truly dramatic.

Logic prevailed

Twelve hours after the Chinese’s initial announcement and threat international observers noticed that some of the naval forces of both sides withdrew to their bases. The same happened for the naval forces of Russia, North Korea, Taiwan, as well as the other’s participants of the naval drill. Progressively military forces were evacuating the Chinese Sea. De- escalation was a reality and the news spread rapidly around the world causing a deep feeling of relief to everyone. It was clear that no one desired a nuclear war. At the same time, at UN Headquarters in NYC, the Secretary-General informed the World’s public opinion about an agreement regarding a round of negotiations in Zurich, Switzerland, between the Chinese President and the Japanese Prime Minister which has been scheduled in the forthcoming weeks. An hour later the Japanese Foreign Office confirmed the agreement as well as the Chinese side. US State Department spokesman confirmed that the situation in the region was heading to detente. Eventually peace had returned but for how long until the next crisis was another matter of discussion.

Conclusion

This scenario is hypothetical, as the title admits. However, our intention is not to sound as if we are warlike but instead to give an example of how easily tensions can rise due to an accident. The assembly of great military strength in a relative small area, like the China Sea, has the dynamic to cause a maritime or an air accident/disaster, as has happened in the past, with unpredictable consequences for the region, the global economy and eventually the entire planet. The hegemonic competition between China and USA is rather easy to be escalated from a current trade war to a full scale military conflict unless the two sides show self-restrain. The Asia-Pacific region is of high importance to the global economy and trade. The rise of China consists of a threat to the global interests of the United States and its hegemonic position but also intensifies the security dilemma of the others states in the region which seek to enforce their military capabilities. This course of events will drive eventually to an arms race in the region which is a reality as military spending in 2019 is at the highest level since 1988. On the other hand, the US presence in the region is considered from Beijing as an effort to place obstacles to the Chinese dominance. A possible destabilization of this region could be proved catastrophic to our modern world. This is a scenario which utterly must be avoided.

International Relations Analyst – Researcher in Training at the Institute of International Relations Themistoklis Z. Zanidis has a B.A. in Cultural Studies from the Hellenic Open University and a MSc in International and European Affairs from University of Piraeus (concentration Strategic Studies). He is Researcher in training at the Institute of International Relations (I.DI.S.) on the field of Strategic Culture of Greece and Turkey. Themistoklis writes articles, both in Greek and English, about international relations and EU affairs in magazines and blogs. You can find his articles in his personal website: https://www.tzanidis.online/

Defense

The US tanks deal to Ukraine and the Sino-Russian military alliance

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Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, image by the Presidential Press and Information Office, the Kremlin, via Wikipedia

After the warnings of the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, “Medvedev”, of the possibility of establishing a Russian-Chinese military alliance against Washington, the most important questions and analyzes that arise in this regard revolve in their entirety around:

Will Russia implement its threats to establish that alliance?

What are the countries likely to ally with Russia to confront America?

And in the event that Russia implements its threats against the United States of America by establishing that joint military alliance with China, does this mean a weakening of American hegemony in world politics?

Then, what is the relationship of the tank deal that the United States and Germany intend to send to Ukraine with the order of that joint military alliance between China and Russia, and does China really accept a solid and joint military alliance in confronting Washington militarily?

  In order to answer these questions, we will find that there is already an existing and joint strengthening of military cooperation between the Chinese and Russian sides, through Russian President “Putin” stressing to his Chinese counterpart “Xi Jinping” the importance of geo-strategic cooperation and technical-military cooperation between the two countries in the wake of the “interaction joint maneuvers” in 2022 between the two countries, which took place in the East China Sea in December 2022, with the assertion of the commander of the Russian forces participating in the joint military exercises with China, that it comes as a response to the violent increase in the number of US forces present in the Indo-Pacific region in the American concept or the Asia-Pacific region in the Chinese and Russian concept. This means that Russia is ready to cooperate closely with Beijing, in response to the American efforts to surround China, through the establishment of American military and technological alliances to confront China, such as the American quadruple alliance with India, Japan and Australia, or through the US nuclear defense Okus alliance with Australia and Britain, or from  Through Washington’s military support for Taiwan in the face of Beijing and the increase in US arms and military equipment sales to the Taiwanese side, which arouses China’s ire.

   In recent years, China has also taken the initiative to enhance cooperation between the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and the Russian Armed Forces by conducting joint exercises and coordinated patrols in the area around Japan.  As for the Chinese army, its cooperation with the Russian army and the Russian armed forces would contribute significantly to the implementation of the military, security and defense reforms that Chinese President “Xi Jinping” seeks to achieve, which aims to transform the Chinese People’s Liberation Army into one of the largest fighting forces in the world to be comparable in strength to the US Army.

 We find that there is already existing and joint military cooperation between the Chinese and Russian parties in the field of joint military exercises, which has witnessed a clear increase in the recent period, and this cooperation in the security and defense field between China and Russia has acquired clear geopolitical connotations. In May 2022, China and Russia conducted joint sorties and air maneuvers over the Sea of ​​Japan and the East China Sea, which coincided with the summit of the leaders of the Quadruple Strategic Dialogue, known as “Quad” in Japan, which is a forum for political cooperation through which Washington seeks to turn it into a military alliance against China.  Therefore, the joint maneuvers of Moscow and Beijing came to confirm that the two countries are cooperating militarily in the face of Washington’s attempt to establish military alliances against them, on top of which is the US Aukus nuclear defense alliance with Australia and Britain in the face of China.

 Also, all the recent summits that took place between Beijing and Moscow focused, in their entirety, on Russian military cooperation with Beijing, as well as the two parties meeting to strengthen their strategic partnerships in the face of Western threats, and on their intention and desire to establish a multipolar international system, with what that means in the end. The US-dominated world order, which Washington seeks to respond to by pushing the NATO military alliance to adopt policies to besiege the Chinese and Russian countries.

 China and Russia have conducted several joint military exercises in the Chinese Shandong Peninsula, and they were mainly focused on anti-terrorism exercises, and it was agreed after that to conduct peace mission exercises annually under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which consists of (China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan).

 Then this was followed by several joint naval exercises that took place on a permanent basis, and it was called joint seas exercises and maneuvers (or a joint Russian-Chinese naval interaction, as the Russians called it), and it was mainly concentrated in the Yellow Sea region off the Chinese Shandong Peninsula, with the participation of many  Warships from both countries, in exercises simulating joint air defense, anti-submarine warfare, and search and rescue missions.  Since then, joint seas exercises have been held annually between the Chinese and Russian sides (except for 2020), and their content is constantly changing.  Since 2013, the geographical scope of the Russian-Chinese exercises has expanded, to include areas outside the immediate periphery of China, including Europe, and in chronological order those locations were:

  (Sea of ​​Japan in 2013, East China Sea exercises in 2014, Mediterranean and Sea of ​​Japan in 2015, South China Sea in 2016, Baltic Sea and Sea of ​​Japan in 2017, South China Sea in 2018, Yellow Sea in 2019, Sea of ​​Japan in 2021)       

 China also participated in the “Russian Vostok joint military exercises” in 2018, which were held in the Eastern Military District of Russia and about 3,200 Chinese soldiers from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army participated.  The Chinese and Russian militaries also carry out coordinated and periodic military missions in the geographical and territorial area surrounding the seas and in the airspace around Japan.  Most of the joint military exercises and missions between China and Russia take place in the eastern part of the Sea of ​​Japan, through the northern Tsugaru Strait (between Honshu and Hokkaido regions), along the Pacific coast of Japan, and then west through the Osumi Strait in southern Kagoshima Prefecture.

 The main objective of conducting such military maneuvers between China and Russia, as declared by both parties, remains to unite forces against the United States of America and its allies, especially after its strained relations with both countries.  In addition to Russia’s dispute with the United States of America and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.  Recently, US tensions with Russia have exacerbated, due to the latter’s invasion of Ukraine.

 Bearing in mind that Chinese President Xi Jinping did not respond directly to Russia’s desire for joint military cooperation, but merely referred to Beijing’s willingness to increase strategic cooperation with Russia.  At the same time, there are US assurances that Washington has not monitored any indications of Chinese support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, unlike the case with North Korea and Iran, which Washington has accused of providing Moscow with ammunition and drones.

  Here the message of the Russian President “Putin” to his Chinese counterpart “Xi Jinping” by expressing Russia’s desire for a military rapprochement between the two countries to confront what he called unprecedented Western pressure, with President Putin affirming the right of the two countries to preserve their positions, principles, and aspirations to build a just international order, in a Russian reference to the multipolar system, which will mark the end of American unipolarity, the Russian side assured its Chinese counterpart that military cooperation between the Chinese and Russian sides will support international peace and security.

 Here, Washington expresses its concern about such cooperation, which may cover any shortage of military supplies that Russia needs to continue its war against Ukraine. It was remarkable that Western officials ignored this time threatening China if it sought military cooperation with Russia.

  There is an official Chinese assertion through the official Chinese government media affiliated with the ruling Communist Party, that Beijing will continue to adhere to its objective and fair position on the war in Ukraine, which is based on the fact that the West caused this conflict by insisting on spreading NATO bases to countries located in the immediate vicinity from the Russian borders, which is in line with and confirms the Russian point of view, and contradicts its Western counterpart, which views the Russian-Ukrainian war as an assault by Moscow on a sovereign country.

 We will find that after the summit talks between President Xi Jinping and Putin (shortly before Russia started its invasion of Ukraine), both the Chinese and Russian sides oppose further NATO expansion, and stand against the formation of closed blocs and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region.  In this way, China signaled its support for Russia in its power struggle with NATO against Washington and the West.

 On the other side, the economic and military cooperation between China and Russia has also been increased, since the start of the Russian military operation against Ukraine in February 2022, despite the United States’ threat to Beijing at the beginning of the war, to work to help the Russian economy find alternatives that help it avoid the repercussions of Western sanctions,  However, it became clear that Beijing did not heed these American threats.

 Here, China and Russia succeeded in arousing Washington’s military wrath, through Moscow conducting several multilateral maneuvers with the participation of China and India at the end of 2022, in order to confirm that Washington’s attempts to militarily weaken the relationship between Moscow, New Delhi, and Beijing will not succeed.

 Hence, we can say that the relations between Russia and China have witnessed a remarkable growth in the military aspects in recent times, exceeding the limit of statements to the level of action and practical moves in the Indo-Pacific region or the Pacific and Indian oceans, as a joint Russian-Chinese response to confront the US alliances with its regional allies.  In that region, accusing the American side of seeking and targeting the strangulation of the two countries in the first place.  Especially after the series of security, political, economic and military alliances that the United States of America established against China and Russia in their regional region, led by the Aukus-Quad alliances against the interests of China and Russia mainly, coinciding with the escalation of the American provocations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, with the policy of continuous American mobilization of its allies in Europe, and the imposition of several packages of sanctions against Moscow to paralyze the Russian economy after the Ukraine war.

  Therefore, the Chinese-Russian response, on the other hand, was to strengthen their network of military and diplomatic relations in light of their tense relations with the US side and its allies, through political and economic partnerships and joint and extensive military exercises, and Moscow and Beijing’s keenness to conduct regular naval maneuvers between the two sides as threatening messages directed mainly at Washington.

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Defense

SCO in an Era of New-Regionalism

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The growth of SCO may have emerged as the most victorious Eurasian Organization but it still has a long way to go. Since the day of its inception, SCO has been struggling to address some of the organization’s major concerns such as maintaining cohesion among member states and addressing economic issues besides strengthening its institutional basis. However, it has expanded its regional profile and managed to portend in an era of New Regionalism.

The recent summit of the Eurasian Economic, Political, and Security Forum (on 15-16th September 2022) is of utmost importance considering the current serious political, and economic transformations happenings across the Eurasian Continent. This summit has marked new aspects of Regional Cooperation, and Economic Potential for SCO in the Changing International Environment.

The key takeaways of the recent summit: –

  • Inclusion of Iran as a permanent member of SCO
  • Turkey to pursue permanent membership of SCO
  • Gulf states to gain the status of SCO Dialogue Partner

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei said, “One of our priorities today in foreign policy is preferring East to West, neighbors to remote countries”. As the world’s biggest regional organization, SCO may use its institutional capacity and political power to counter economic sanctions and assist with financial instability in countries like Iran. Also, Iran has the potential to be a ‘Hub Country’ playing a key role in East-West and North-South transportation routes. The inclusion of Iran as a permanent member of the SCO demonstrates the rise of anti-Western narratives. Iran and Russia have expanded their connections in recent decades, including non-energy links, defense collaboration, and weapons sales. Therefore, Iran’s willingness to pursue better ties with China and Russia (the SCO’s two major countries) opens up a new wave of ‘Multi-literalism’ in the Eurasian Region. The energy crisis caused by the Ukraine war can be met by Iran (which has the world’s fourth biggest oil and natural gas reserves) as Iran’s commerce with SCO member states has risen to $37 billion by 2021. Iran’s inclusion in SCO has strengthened China’s policy of “Asia people to uphold Asian security” in changing geopolitical climate. It will enhance International North-South Transport Corridor- a shifting gear in Eurasian connectivity. Besides these positive aspects, there are other prospects for Iran’s inclusion in SCO. Above all,  SCO members have to deal strictly with three evils “Terrorism, Extremism, and Separatism” where Iran has been blamed for providing nuclear support for terrorism, and cross-border violence support by the West. Hence, Iran may face staunch opposition from the west to perform dexterously in the region. Although SCO has accomplished much in terms of multilateral growth, it does not appear to be capable of taking strong moves in the face of US-Iran antagonism, given the organization’s structure, powers, and aims. Still, SCO does accrue economic and geopolitical benefits for Iran, allowing it to maintain its position in the Middle East.

Turkey’s president Tayyip Erdogan said, “Our relations with these countries will be moved to a much better position with this step. Of course [membership], that’s the target”.

Turkey, a NATO member since 1952, indicates a distant possibility of becoming a permanent SCO member. However, its relations with the United States will determine its standing in the SCO. The recent SCO summit has shown Turkey’s bid to get permanent membership of SCO. which might be because Turkey has grown closer to Moscow, both politically and commercially, in recent years, including acquiring an S-400 defense system. Ankara has also become economically dependent on Moscow to avoid a balance-of-payments catastrophe before the 2023 elections. However, in the SCO, Turkey will serve as an “Energy Hub” connecting Caspian and Central Asian producers with European customers.

China, SCO major power, is open to Turkey’s accession besides Turkey’s standing on the Uyghur issue (that might strain the future of China-Turkey relations). On the Syrian upheaval, clashes between Turkey and two SCO leading states Russia and China are possible. Turkey opposes Assad’s dictatorship (and even supports humanitarian action), whilst Russia and China encourage non-interference. Membership in the SCO may enhance Islamist imperatives in Turkish internal politics, affecting its path to democracy. Turkey in SCO will have an influence on India’s, Pakistan’s, and Iran’s policies in Central Asia. Furthermore, Turkey has the second biggest military force among NATO countries, after the United States, with around 445,000 troops. Turkey is home to five NATO headquarters in Izmir, as well as a US military-led airport. It also acts as an American security policy in the Middle East and the Balkans due to its key geographical position. Consequently, Turkey’s departure does not appear to be a possibility so far. In “The Clash of Civilizations, and the Remaking of the World Order,” Samuel Huntington described Turkey as a “torn country” because “its leaders typically wish to pursue a bandwagon strategy and to make their country a member of the West, but the country’s history, culture, and traditions are non-western.” All of this would impede the SCO’s ability to achieve its fundamental aims, which have already been hampered by tensions among SCO member nations

For Gulf nations, the SCO has increased its need considering China as the global economic powerhouse, Russia as the world’s second-biggest producer of natural gas, and Central Asian states with virtually unexplored oil and natural gas potential. Gulf States analyst, Ali Ahmad said “All of the countries involved do see china as a rising power and country that is potentially going to have a rising power in the region, and elsewhere” The SCO’s recent success in the Arab world is due to China’s expanding economic impact in the area. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international commerce, China’s exports to Saudi Arabia are over US$30.32 billion. The safe access to its essential energy resources and marine trade routes, in addition to major seaports like Dubai, through which 60% of its traffic heading for Europe and East Africa flows, is a crucial driver of China’s interest in the Gulf.

Also, US policy toward Gulf states, particularly after 9/11, has made these countries concerned for their future.  The many Gulf States now wish to price some oil contracts in non-dollar-dominant countries. Where SCO, states reiterated their commitment to promoting national currencies in bilateral commerce in a recent summit, as China and Russia have boosted trading in rubles and renminbi since 2014. There has been a GCC-China free trade deal; if this agreement comes to fruition, it will undoubtedly benefit tarns-regional connectivity. Hence, Gulf states in SCO will catalyze Eurasian connectivity.

However, Institutional, infrastructural, and trade issues remain unresolved for SCO. Another critical question is SCO’s expansion: should it be a regional or global organization? Is it to be a global future, as Russia wants, or a regional future, as China desires? Concrete policies and closer coordination are required, depending on the extent to which domestic and member state impacts converge, as well as their significance in addressing future security and economic concerns for the furtherance of SCO.

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Defense

India’s Naval Modernization efforts: Implication for Regional Stability

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In recent years, India has been undertaking significant efforts to modernize its navy in order to enhance its capabilities and protect its economic interests in the Indian Ocean region. This naval modernization has been reflected in the acquisition of new ships, submarines, and aircraft, as well as the development of new base and port facilities. However, these efforts have not only implications for India but also for the regional stability in general and for Pakistan in particular. The increasing naval capabilities of India have a direct implication on the balance of power in the Indian Ocean region which could lead to an arms race and potential conflicts with other countries in the region. India’s increasing naval presence in the region could lead to increased patrols and surveillance which could have negative impact on the security of the region. In this editorial, we will examine the implications of India’s naval modernization efforts on regional stability and explore how these developments may impact Pakistan and other countries in the Indian Ocean region.

How could India’s naval modernization efforts impact South Asia’s regional stability?

However, it is important to note that India’s Naval modernizations efforts could also be seen as a response to the growing naval capabilities of other regional actors, such as China and Pakistan. Furthermore, India’s navy modernization efforts could also contribute to regional stability by providing a stronger deterrent against potential adversaries and by fostering cooperation with other countries in the region through joint exercises and other initiatives.

It is also important to consider the fact that India’s modernization efforts are also driven by its growing economic and strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, which is becoming increasingly important for global trade and energy security. These interests may lead to India to play a more active role in maintaining security and stability in the region.

It is also worth noting that India’s modernization efforts have been met with concerns from other countries in the region, particularly Pakistan, which views them as a potential threat to its own security. This has the potential to exacerbate existing tensions between the two countries.

India’s naval modernization efforts have the potential to impact regional stability in South Asia in several ways.

First, India’s expanding naval capabilities, including the acquisition of new ships, nuclear powered submarines, and aircraft carriers, new and advanced attack helicopter, rejuvenating its third eye through employment of spy satellites could potentially shift the balance of power in the region in its favor, which could fuel military tensions with neighboring countries such as Pakistan. India’s ambitious efforts could lead to an arms race in the region as other countries may follow suit and need to enhance their naval capabilities to counterbalance India’s expanding naval muscles, which could be destabilizing.

Second, India’s increased naval presence in the region could lead to increased patrols and surveillance in the Indian Ocean, which could lead to potential conflicts with other countries in South Asia, particularly Pakistan. It could affect the maritime security of South Asia.

Third, India’s naval modernization efforts may lead to an increase in military spending by other countries in the region, which could divert resources away from economic development and potentially increase income inequality, which could be destabilizing.

Fourth, India’s naval modernization could also have economic implications for the region, as India’s increased naval power may give it more influence over trade routes and access to resources in the Indian Ocean, which could have negative economic consequences for neighboring countries such as Pakistan.

Overall, India’s naval modernization efforts have the potential to impact regional stability in South Asia, and it will be paramount to closely monitor these developments and their implications for the countries in the region.

 According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India is among the top five military spenders in the world. India’s military spending has been increasing in recent years, driven by a variety of factors, including border disputes with neighboring states in region, and the growing naval capabilities of China. According to SIPRI data, India’s military spending in 2020 was $71.1 billion USD, representing an increase of around 3.9% from the previous year. The Indian Navy is being modernized and India has also been investing on procuring new naval vessels, submarines, aircrafts, weapons systems and developing new naval bases and infrastructure.

How Indian Naval Modernization efforts are affecting Pakistan’s Security?

India’s ongoing efforts to modernize its navy have implications for Pakistan. As Pakistan views these efforts as a potential threat to its own security. The acquisition of advanced weapons systems and abovementioned factors as well as the expansion of its naval bases and infrastructure, could potentially alter the balance of power in the region. While Pakistan sees this as a direct challenge toward maintaining regional balance with the help of garnering it naval capabilities.

Pakistan’s concerns stem from the fact that India’s navy modernization efforts are also driven by its growing economic and strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, which is becoming increasingly important for global trade and energy security. These interests may lead Pakistan to play a more active role in maintaining security and stability in the region, which could potentially be at the expense of India’s said military interests in Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

It is worth noting that Pakistan is trying to balance in its navy to maintain the strategic balance of the region in recent years, with the acquisition of new submarines, frigates and other naval assets. This step by Pakistan has been seen as a strategic balancer in the region and response in line with India’s naval modernization aims and has the potential to further promote the peace and stability in Indian Ocean Region.

Time for World Powers to Intervene:

India’s ongoing efforts to modernize its navy have the potential to impact regional stability in South Asia, and as such, the role of world powers in this regard is an important consideration.

One potential role for world powers is to encourage dialogue and cooperation between India and other regional actors, particularly Pakistan, to address concerns and to work towards maintaining regional stability. This could involve facilitating direct talks and negotiations, as well as encouraging confidence-building measures such as joint military exercises and other initiatives.

Another important role for world powers is to support the development of regional institutions and mechanisms for addressing security challenges. This could include supporting the development of a regional security architecture, such as a South Asian security dialogue or forum, which would provide a platform for countries in the region to discuss and address security concerns.

It is pertinent to mention that India’s modernization efforts are also driven by its growing economic and strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region, which is becoming increasingly important for global trade and energy security. World powers could play a role in supporting and encouraging India’s efforts to secure its economic and strategic interests in the region.

Furthermore, world powers could also play a role in encouraging transparency and predictability in the military activities of regional actors, particularly in the Indian Ocean region, through mechanisms such as confidence-building measures and arms control agreements.

In conclusion, India’s naval modernization efforts have the potential to impact regional stability in South Asia, but the effects will likely be complex and multifaceted. Further research and analysis would be necessary to fully understand the implications of these efforts. India’s modernizing its naval forces have serious implications for Pakistan could be a potential threat to its security. It is important for both countries to engage in dialogue and cooperation to address these concerns, and to work towards maintaining regional stability.

In the end, these efforts in South Asia have the potential to impact regional stability, and world powers have an important role to play in encouraging dialogue and cooperation, supporting regional institutions and mechanisms, and encouraging transparency and predictability in the military activities of regional actors.

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