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Global energy demand to plunge this year as a result of the biggest shock since World War 2

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The Covid-19 pandemic represents the biggest shock to the global energy system in more than seven decades, with the drop in demand this year set to dwarf the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and result in a record annual decline in carbon emissions of almost 8%.

A new report released today by the International Energy Agency provides an almost real-time view of the Covid-19 pandemic’s extraordinary impact across all major fuels. Based on an analysis of more than 100 days of real data so far this year, the IEA’s Global Energy Review includes estimates for how energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions trends are likely to evolve over the rest of 2020.

“This is a historic shock to the entire energy world. Amid today’s unparalleled health and economic crises, the plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard-of slump in electricity use,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before.”

The Global Energy Review’s projections of energy demand and energy-related emissions for 2020 are based on assumptions that the lockdowns implemented around the world in response to the pandemic are progressively eased in most countries in the coming months, accompanied by a gradual economic recovery.

The report projects that energy demand will fall 6% in 2020 – seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis. In absolute terms, the decline is unprecedented – the equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third largest energy consumer. Advanced economies are expected to see the biggest declines, with demand set to fall by 9% in the United States and by 11% in the European Union. The impact of the crisis on energy demand is heavily dependent on the duration and stringency of measures to curb the spread of the virus. For instance, the IEA found that each month of worldwide lockdown at the levels seen in early April reduces annual global energy demand by about 1.5%.

Changes to electricity use during lockdowns have resulted in significant declines in overall electricity demand, with consumption levels and patterns on weekdays looking like those of a pre-crisis Sunday. Full lockdowns have pushed down electricity demand by 20% or more, with lesser impacts from partial lockdowns. Electricity demand is set to decline by 5% in 2020, the largest drop since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

At the same time, lockdown measures are driving a major shift towards low-carbon sources of electricity including wind, solar PV, hydropower and nuclear. After overtaking coal for the first time ever in 2019, low-carbon sources are set to extend their lead this year to reach 40% of global electricity generation – 6 percentage points ahead of coal. Electricity generation from wind and solar PV continues to increase in 2020, lifted by new projects that were completed in 2019 and early 2020.

This trend is affecting demand for electricity from coal and natural gas, which are finding themselves increasingly squeezed between low overall power demand and increasing output from renewables. As a result, the combined share of gas and coal in the global power mix is set to drop by 3 percentage points in 2020 to a level not seen since 2001.

Coal is particularly hard hit, with global demand projected to fall by 8% in 2020, the largest decline since the Second World War. Following its 2018 peak, coal-fired power generation is set to fall by more than 10% this year.

After 10 years of uninterrupted growth, natural gas demand is on track to decline 5% in 2020. This would be the largest recorded year-on-year drop in consumption since natural gas demand developed at scale during the second half of the 20th century. The massive impact of the crisis on oil demand has already been covered in detail in our April Oil Market Report.

Renewables are set to be the only energy source that will grow in 2020, with their share of global electricity generation projected to jump thanks to their priority access to grids and low operating costs. Despite supply chain disruptions that have paused or delayed deployment in several key regions this year, solar PV and wind are on track to help lift renewable electricity generation by 5% in 2020, aided by higher output from hydropower.

“This crisis has underlined the deep reliance of modern societies on reliable electricity supplies for supporting healthcare systems, businesses and the basic amenities of daily life,” said Dr Birol. “But nobody should take any of this for granted – greater investments and smarter policies are needed to keep electricity supplies secure.”

Despite the resilience of renewables in electricity generation in 2020, their growth is set to be lower than in previous years. Nuclear power, another major source of low-carbon electricity, is on track to drop by 3% this year from the all-time high it reached in 2019. And renewables outside the power sector are faring less well. Global demand for biofuels is set to fall substantially in 2020 as restrictions on transport and travel reduce road transport fuel demand, including for blended fuels.

As a result of these trends – mainly the declines in coal and oil use – global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall by almost 8% in 2020, reaching their lowest level since 2010. This would be the largest decrease in emissions ever recorded – nearly six times larger than the previous record drop of 400 million tonnes in 2009 that resulted from the global financial crisis.

“Resulting from premature deaths and economic trauma around the world, the historic decline in global emissions is absolutely nothing to cheer,” said Dr Birol. “And if the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis is anything to go by, we are likely to soon see a sharp rebound in emissions as economic conditions improve. But governments can learn from that experience by putting clean energy technologies – renewables, efficiency, batteries, hydrogen and carbon capture – at the heart of their plans for economic recovery. Investing in those areas can create jobs, make economies more competitive and steer the world towards a more resilient and cleaner energy future.”

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Small Business, Big Problem: New Report Says 67% of SMEs Worldwide Are Fighting for Survival

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Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and mid-sized companies are the backbone of the global economy. They create close to 70% of jobs and GDP worldwide. But, amid warnings of a global recession, research from the World Economic Forum and the National University of Singapore Business School indicates that 67% of executives from SMEs cite survival and expansion as their main challenge.

They mention low margins, the challenge of scaling the business and expanding to new markets, and clients/consumers as the main pressure points.

The report, Future Readiness of SMEs and Mid-Sized Companies: A Year On, looks at companies emerging from the pandemic. It builds on analysis of over 200 peer-reviewed articles and the quantitative and qualitative surveying of about 800 leaders and executives from SMEs and mid-sized companies. Business leaders also cite talent acquisition and retention (48%), culture and values (34%), funding and access to capital (24%), as well as non-favourable business policy environments (22%) as their biggest challenge.

The report also identifies pragmatic ways for smaller companies to embed future readiness into corporate strategies and highlights sustainability and digital transformation as two overlooked challenges. It focuses on how smaller companies can boost their resilience through stronger business frameworks. It also highlights how their high level of agility can benefit the development and implementation of:

– A strategic approach to talent management

– A staged approach to digital transformation

– Specific sustainability measures depending on the company’s level of maturity in this space

While smaller companies can increase their future readiness, the wider policy environment – such as the infrastructure for digital trade and finance – has a direct and important impact on their ability to thrive. It is, therefore, key for policy-makers, investors and other stakeholders to do what is in their capabilities to contribute to building the future readiness of this segment of the economy.

“The business community is stepping up to tackle the biggest issues facing the world. SMEs and mid-sized companies are key enablers in this pursuit. This report sheds light on some key opportunity spaces for SMEs and mid-sized to do exactly that,” said Børge Brende, President, World Economic Forum.

Rashimah Rajah, Professor at the National University of Singapore and co-lead author of the report, added: “SMEs and mid-sized companies have unique strengths in their ability to pivot their business models to be more future ready and, by hiring and developing the right talent, they can mobilize positive internal and external change faster than larger companies. However, to fully realize their potential, they also need the support of policy-makers in recognizing their credentials as well as in rewarding sustainability initiatives.”

The report was developed in collaboration with the National University of Singapore Business School, as well as with expert contributions from UnternehmerTUM, Aston Business School, TBS Education, the Aspen Institute, Asia Global Institute and the International Chamber of Commerce.

The World Economic Forum will be leveraging the insights generated in this report to further support SMEs and mid-sized companies in their future-readiness journey. This will be done through the creation of additional resources including the continuous development of the Forum’s self-assessment and benchmarking tool on future readiness, as well as the creation of a space for informal peer-to-peer learning between companies as well as meet-ups with key experts.

With some of the key insights of the report coming from the New Champions Community, the Forum aims to amplify the voices of purpose-driven mid-sized businesses. This community and its more than 100 members share and learn from best practices, proven innovations and support new partnerships for the common good in the mid-sized landscape.

The Forum is now accepting applications from forward-looking mid-sized companies that are pioneering new business models, emerging technologies and sustainable growth strategies.

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A Greener Cooling Pathway Can Create a $1.6 Trillion Investment Opportunity in India

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A new World Bank report finds that as temperatures steadily rise in India due to climate change, keeping spaces cool using alternative and innovative energy efficient technologies can open an investment opportunity of $1.6 trillion by 2040.  This also has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly and create nearly 3.7 million jobs.

India is experiencing higher temperatures every year. By 2030, over 160-200 million people across the country could be exposed to lethal heat waves annually. Around 34 million people in India will face job losses due to heat stress related productivity decline.  The current food loss due to heat during transportation is close to $13 billion annually.  By 2037, the demand for cooling is likely to be eight times more than current levels. This means there will be a demand for a new air-conditioner every 15 seconds, leading to an expected rise of 435 percent in annual greenhouse gas emissions over the next two decades.

The report, “Climate Investment Opportunities in India’s Cooling Sector” finds that shifting to a more energy efficient pathway could lead to a substantial reduction in expected CO2 levels over the next two decades.

“India’s cooling strategy can help save lives and livelihoods, reduce carbon emissions and simultaneously position India as a global hub for green cooling manufacturing,” said Auguste Tano Kouamé, the World Bank’s Country Director in India. “The report suggests a sustainable roadmap for cooling that has the potential to reduce 300 million tons of carbon dioxide annually by 2040.

Recognizing this challenge, India is already deploying new strategies to help people adapt to rising temperatures. In 2019, it launched the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) to provide sustainable cooling measures across various sectors, including indoor cooling in buildings and cold chain and refrigeration in the agriculture and pharmaceuticals sector and air-conditioning in passenger transport.  Its aim is to reduce the demand for cooling by up to 25 percent by 2037-38.

The new World Bank report proposes a roadmap to support the ICAP’s new investments in three major sectors: building construction, cold chains, and refrigerants.

Adopting climate-responsive cooling techniques as a norm in both private and government-funded constructions can ensure that those at the bottom of the economic ladder are not disproportionately affected by rising temperatures. The report suggests that India’s affordable housing program for the poor, the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), can adopt such changes on scale. This could benefit over 11 million urban homes and over 29 million rural houses that the government aims to construct.

The report also recommends private investments in district cooling technologies. These generate chilled water in a central plant which is then distributed to multiple buildings via underground insulated pipes. This brings down the cost for providing cooling to individual buildings and can reduce energy bills by 20-30 percent compared to the most efficient conventional cooling solution.

To minimize rising food and pharmaceutical wastage during transport due to higher temperatures, the report recommends fixing gaps in cold chain distribution networks. Investing in pre-cooling and refrigerated transport can help decrease food loss by about 76 percent and reduce carbon emissions by 16 percent.

India aims to phase out the production and use of ozone-depleting hydrochlorofluorocarbons, used as coolants in air conditioners and refrigerators by 2047. The report recommends improvements in servicing, maintenance and disposal of equipment that use hydrochlorofluorocarbons, alongside a shift to alternative options with a lower global warming footprint. This can create 2 million jobs for trained technicians over the next two decades and reduce the demand for refrigerants by around 31 percent.

“The right set of policy actions and public investments can help leverage large scale private investment in this sector. We recommend that these moves be accelerated by creating a flagship government mission to address the challenges and opportunities from rising temperatures in India,” say the authors of the report, Abhas K. Jha, Practice Manager, Climate and Disaster Risk Management, South Asia and Mehul Jain, Climate Change Specialist, World Bank.

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Pandemic Recovery Efforts Trigger New Energy Access Policies

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Two years of pandemic have highlighted the vulnerability and isolation of populations without electricity and have prompted countries to increase their focus on energy access and affordability, finds a new World Bank report on energy policies and regulations. The 2022 edition of the RISE (Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy) report shows that many countries have embedded new policies to improve their energy independence and minimize energy costs in their COVID-19 recovery plans.

“Confronted with multiple crises, now more than ever countries are recognizing the urgency of connecting their populations to sustainable, affordable and resilient energy sources,” said Riccardo Puliti, World Bank Vice President for Infrastructure. “Clear policy frameworks and planning enable governments to map out their energy strategies and to provide the predictability and transparency needed to attract investments.” 

According to the bi-annual report that evaluates energy policies and regulatory frameworks across a set of indicators, the pandemic  was a strong trigger: nearly half of the 140 surveyed countries in each region included new policies to minimize disruptions to electricity access, quality, and affordability in their COVID-19 recovery packages.

Many governments improved their electricity access policies, with Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean scoring the highest on this indicator. This included the two largest energy access-deficit countries—Nigeria and Ethiopia— which showed noteworthy progress thanks to policy and regulatory measures on electrification planning, frameworks for mini grids and off-grid systems, and consumer affordability of electricity.

And the number of countries with advanced mini-grids policy frameworks more than doubled between 2019-2021, reflecting how mini grids and solar home systems are now widely viewed as sufficient substitutes for grid extension. Over 40% of countries surveyed offered publicly funded financing options to secure funding for mini-grid operators. This had a positive effect on the cost of off-grid electricity, as the unsubsidized levelized cost of mini-grids fell by a third, from US$0.55 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2018 to US$0.38 per kWh in 2021.

Meanwhile, with renewable technologies becoming cost-competitive with traditional baseload energy sources over the last decade, many countries phased out incentives to compensate for renewable energy production. Tax reduction is now the most prevalent renewable energy fiscal incentive in place to attract large-scale corporate investments, with half of the countries surveyed offering tax reduction incentives for renewable energy projects.

Finally, the report found that energy efficiency policies were not receiving adequate attention despite unprecedented energy price hikes, with 49 countries showing little to no advances on energy efficiency policy frameworks.

Every two years, the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy or RISE report measures policy progress in 140 countries, representing over 98 percent of the world population, on renewable energy, energy efficiency, electricity access, and access to clean cooking – the four target areas of Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7) on access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030. RISE 2022: Building Resilience is the fourth edition of the report. The report is published by the World Bank with funding from the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP). The full report, along with detailed country profiles and previous editions of the report, is available at https://rise.esmap.org/

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