The spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) in Azerbaijan began in February. The first case of infection was recorded on February 28 and first death on March 12. As of April 17, Azerbaijan had 1,340 confirmed cases, 15 death and 528 people were recovered. The main source of infections was people who traveled to Azerbaijan from Iran – the epicentre of the outbreak in the Middle East. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan has border and close tourism relations with Iran, necessary measures have been taken in the early stages of the outbreak, which prevented the mass spread of the coronavirus. The first important measure was the closure of the border with Iran as of February 29 after the two Azerbaijan citizens who were returning from Iran tested positive for coronavirus.
As the the number of infections began to increase, other important and strict measures were taken. All land borders with the neighbors were closed and education and related activities have been suspended until April 20, later extended to May 4. Over 10,000 Azerbaijani citizens were evacuatedfrom other countries. Beginning from March 14, certain measures on social isolation began to be implemented, including the cancellation of large-scale events such as weddings, funerals and the closure of cinemas, museums and theaters.
From March 24 according to the Article 25 of the Law of the Republic of Azerbaijan on sanitary-epidemiological safety the government declared special quarantine regime until May 4. Based on the rules of the special quarantine people above the age of 65 are banned from leaving home. Entry and exit to/from Absheron region which hosts Baku – the capital of the country and the second largest city Sumgayit and transportation between districts and cities was restricted (except the special-purpose vehicles). Along with these measures the operation of all shopping centers and the movement of subway trains (from March 31) in Baku was suspended.
Later, on April 5 the Azerbaijan’s government tightened quarantine rules in order to monitor movements of citizens and to encourage people to stay in their homes and apartments. According to the new rules, citizens could leave their homes only if they going to visit grocery stores, pharmacies, medical facilities and banks. For this citizens have to obtain permission by sending a text message.
Despite the fact that all taken measures are effective in preventing the mass spread of the coronavirus, it has also substantial economic implications. As the special working regime have been implemented in different sectors of economy during the quarantine, it has substantially weakened business activities and the development of different economic sectors. This situation created unemployment problems and financial risks. Taking into account the seriousness of the situation and the damage that workers and companies could face, the government stepped in to support the businesses, their employees and economy as a whole. For this purpose different economic and social measures began to be taken.
In order to coordinate all taken measures to fight COVID-19 on February 27 an operational headquarters under the Cabinet of Ministers was created. In the early March 10 million manat (5,9 million USD) was allocated to the Cabinet of Ministers to ensure that all necessary measures will be implemented on time. On March 19, President Ilham Aliyev announced the creation of the Fund to Support Fight Against Coronavirus and contributed his yearly salary to the fund. Also, additional 20 million manat (12 million USD) was allocated from the President’s Contingency Fund to the newly established fund to increase the effectiveness of the taken measures and to ensure material support to the medical workers providing relevant services. As of April 16, the total donations of different state agencies, companies and citizens to thefund have reached 112,233 million manat (65 million USD).
Also, on March 19 the President issued an order to allocate1 billion manat from the state budget to the Cabinet of Ministers for the implementation of measures to reduce the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy, to ensure macroeconomic stability, to support employment and entrepreneurship. For the effective implementation of assigned measures the Cabinet of Ministers adopted an action plan which contains theprogram of compensation for the damages to the entrepreneurs and their employees beginning April 8. The program covers 300,000 employees, 42,000 employers and about 300,000 private and micro-entrepreneurs. The program stipulates the allocation of 215 million manat (126 million USD) to preserve the salaries of the hired workers and 80 million manat (47 million USD) to support the individual entrepreneurs.
Along with supporting businesses the governmentallocated 400 million manat (235.2 million USD) to support social protection of citizens. Within the framework of the social package 190 manat ($112) lump-sum was planning to be paid to 200,000 unemployed citizens in April and May (then number was increased to 600,000). Another 50,000 unemployed people will get 300 manat aid per month. For the employees who had the salary higher than the monthly average the upper limit of social aid is set at 712 manat. Social protection measures also include the creation of 50,000 paid public jobs, the increase of monthly preferential electricity consumption limit for citizens by 100 kilowatts per hour in April and May, allocation of 40 million manat (23 million USD) for the training of students from low-income families and 280 million manat (164 million USD) for the vital passenger transportation. According to the taken measures in social sphere 20 million manat worth unemployment insurance payments will be expanded to 20,000 people. .
The government of Azerbaijan also began to implement the credit and guarantee support program which enables businesses to get loans with preferential terms. The total amountof funds allocated for this program is 1,5 billion manat (882,3 million USD). Through this program the government will provide state guarantee for 60% of new issued loans which amounts to 500 million manat (294 million USD). The highest percentage for the guarantee loans will be 15% and half of the percentage payments will be subsidized through the budget funds. The program will also support entrepreneurs with the existing loan portfolios who work in the coronavirus affected sectors. The government will subsidize 10% of the interest expenses of these loans for one year and for this purpose 1 billion manat (588 million USD) were allocated. All the measures related to the provision of preferential loans to businesses also support stability of the banking sector as without the government’s support the banking sector have risks to lose revenues that they acquire from the operations of these businesses.
The economic support program of the government also envisages tax benefits, privileges and holidays for businesses entities. The tax payers engaged in catering activities will have simplified tax reduction and exemption from income tax. The import and sale of the products necessary for food and medical security and the raw materials that used in the production of these products will be temporarily exempt form Value Added Tax (VAT). Zero rate of the VAT will be applied to the services provided for the prevention of the pandemic. Tax concessions also include the extension of the deadline of income tax payments of 2019, provision of simplified tax exemptions to the micro-enterprises, the exemption from the property and land taxes until the end of the year, the exemption from the current tax payments for the specific industries, the exemption of the taxpayers from income tax for the relevant amount and period.
With the implementation of all these economic and social programs Azerbaijan became the country that allocated the biggest share of GDP to eliminate pandemic related economic problems among the post-soviet countries. All the budgetary funds that were allocated to support economic development, businesses and social protection of citizens reached 3 billion manat (1.8 billion USD)which is 12% of the state budget revenues and 3,5% of GDP. Creating favorable economic condition in the post-pandemic period is as important as supporting the economy in the period of the pandemic. Therefore, all programs under implementation and the huge amount of government funding will support the stability of economic development in the long-term period.
Thorny path towards peace and reconciliation in Karabakh
On January 11 the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a deal to develop cross-border transportation routes and boost economic growth to benefit the South Caucasus and the Wider Region. This meeting took place two months after the Moscow-brokered armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan ended a 44-day war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
This ethno-territorial conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has drawn dividing lines between Armenia and Azerbaijan for almost 30 years. Some estimates put the number of deaths on both sides at 30,000 after the First Karabakh war before a ceasefire was reached in May 1994. As a result of this war, one fifth of the internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan was occupied and the entire Azerbaijani population of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) and seven adjacent districts (Lachin, Kalbajar, Agdam, Fizuly, Jabrail, Gubatli and Zangilan) was forcibly expelled by the Armenian armed forces. Incidentally, due to sporadic frontline skirmishes and clashes, both military personnel and civilians have been killed along the Line of Contact, devoid of any peacekeeping force, since 1994.
Over the years, Armenia and the separatist regime that emerged in the occupied Azerbaijani territories refused any final status short of independence for Nagorno-Karabakh and tried to preserve this status quo and achieve international security guarantees on the non-resumption of hostilities while avoiding the withdrawal of its armed forces from the occupied territories and preventing the safe return of expelled Azerbaijani inhabitants to their permanent places of residence. However, such a policy, in its turn, polarized the region and reduced to naught any meaningful regional cooperation between the three South Caucasus states.
The Second Karabakh war, which took place from September 27 to November 9, 2020, and the subsequent Russia-brokered peace deal on November 10, significantly changed the facts on the ground and created a new political reality that replaced the “no war, no peace” situation that had been hanging over the region for almost 30 years. As a result of this war, more than 6,000 soldiers died on both sides in fighting.
This war came to an end because of a clear victory for Azerbaijan, which has restored its territorial integrity and sovereignty. Owing to the humiliating defeat of Armenia,the myth of the invincibility of the Armenian armed forces has been shattered and the Prime Minister of this country has been under continuous pressure from the opposition to step down.
Thus, after the Second Karabakh war, the pendulum has swung from devastating war towards actual peace. The question, is, however, whether the conflicting parties will be able to achieve lasting peace in the coming years: How can a relationship that has been completely destroyed owing to this protracted armed conflict and previous wars be restored?
The fate of all inhabitants of both the highlands and lowlands of Karabakh, irrespective of their ethnic origin, is crucial in this context. Security arrangements for the Armenian minority residing in this area are currently organized through the deployment of 1,960 Russian peacekeepers for at least five years to monitor the implementation of the trilateral statement signed by the heads of state of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the Russian Federation on November 10 (hereafter, the trilateral statement). At the same time, the return of the former Azerbaijani inhabitants to their permanent places of residence previously occupied by the Armenian armed forces is envisaged by the trilateral statement and the UNHCR has been assigned to oversee this task.
It is paramount that Azerbaijan has to demonstrate a policy of “strategic patience” in the coming years to entice the Armenians of Karabakh region into closer incorporation through attractive political, economic, social, and other development.
On the other hand, Armenia has to concentrate on its own internationally recognized sovereign territory. Today, it is important that this country changes its external minority policy and withdraws its territorial claims against Azerbaijan. As a next step, both Armenia and Azerbaijan can recognize the territorial integrity of one other.
Such rapprochement can lead to the opening of the borders between Armenia and Turkey and Armenia and Azerbaijan, which would increase economic opportunities for landlocked Armenia. It can thereby contribute to regional stability, development, and trans-regional cooperation among the three South Caucasian states. At the same time, it would create an enabling environment that could be more conducive for future dialogue and interactions between Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
We must face the fact that a stable equilibrium between these two nations has never previously been achieved. However, despite ups and downs, there was peaceful coexistence between the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities in Karabakh as well as Armenia and Azerbaijan’s respective minorities in Azerbaijan and Armenia. This protracted conflict has, however, led Armenians and Azerbaijanis to live in parallel realities for almost 30 years.
In light of the recent past, we cannot soon reconcile our different narratives. It is a long process; however, reconciliation is not only an outcome, it is also a process. Although the gestation period might be long, the process of reconciliation itself can be extremely rewarding.
In fact, the Armenian and Azerbaijani inhabitants of Karabakh have lived together in this region in the past. However, for almost 30 years this was impossible. Will and determination should be put to good use in order to arrive at such a peaceful coexistence once again.
Dawn of great power competition in South Caucasus
The pace of geopolitical change in the South Caucasus is staggering, with the recent Karabakh war only underlining several major geopolitical trends in the region.
The first noticeable trend being the undercutting of democratic ideals and achievements of the region’s states. Take Armenia, its young democracy had high hopes following the 2018 revolution, but now it will be more even more dependent on Russia.
It is not a matter of whether a democratic model is better or not, the matter lies in the incompatibility of an aspiring democracy with a powerful nondemocracy such as Russia.
The Armenian leadership will now have to make extensive concessions to Moscow to shore up its military, backtracking on its democratic values. Building a fair political system cannot go hand in hand with the Russian political model.
The war also put an end to any hopes of Armenia implementing a multivector foreign policy, an already highly scrutinized issue. Mistakes were made continuously along the way, the biggest being an overreliance on Russia.
In the buildup to 2020, Armenia’s multiaxial foreign policy efforts gradually deteriorated, with the 2016 fighting showing the limits. Armenian politicians attempted to develop ties with other regional powers in the aftermath, but Russian influence had already begun to incrementally increase.
Tipping the scales in a no longer balanced alliance culminated in the 2020 war with Azerbaijan thanks to Yerevan’s maneuvering. More crucially, the war has obliterated Yerevan’s multiaxial policy efforts for years to come.
Now, Armenia’s dependence on Russia would be even more pronounced with no viable geopolitical alternatives.
With no more foreign policy diversification, the three South Caucasus states are divided by larger regional powers, further fracturing the region.
The return of Turkey and the growth of the Russian military could resurrect the great power competition, in which a nation’s military power, infrastructure projects and economic might are directly translated into their geopolitical influence over the region, ultimately deterring long-term conflict resolution.
The Western stance
The Karabakh war highlighted a regression in Western peacekeeping standards. The Western approach to conflict resolution based on equality rather than geopolitical interests has been trumped by the Russian alternative.
Moscow is not looking to resolve the conflict (it never does in territorial conflicts); instead, it is seeking to prolong it under its close watch in a bid to increase its influence.
Looking at the situation from the Russian perspective, it is clear the country will continue to influence Armenia and Azerbaijan, only now to a far greater extent than before.
The West’s inability to accommodate fluid geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus also raises questions about its commitment to resolving the issues at hand. The second Karabakh war was in a way a by-product of the West’s declining engagement in the region over the past several years.
The West can no longer treat the South Caucasus as a monolithic entity, and a diversified foreign policy should be applied in line with realities on the ground.
Policies should reflect each individual state, and the West should, perhaps, be more geopolitical in its approach.
Turkey’s recent suggestion to create a six-nation pact bringing together the South Caucasus states, Russia, Turkey and Iran, shows the regression of Western influence in the region. But the geopolitical vacuum is never empty for long, and Turkey and Russia approach.
Georgia could act as the last bastion of dominant Western influence, but even there, the West should be cautious. The country is on the cusp of Europe, making it susceptible to foreign influence.
Bordered by Russia and Turkey, two powers often discerning of Europe, Georgia also feels the pressure to adapt to the changing circumstances on the ground.
The lack of Western resolve in the region and the Black Sea could propel Tbilisi if not toward a total reconsideration of its foreign policy, toward diversifying its foreign ties – one could call a “rebalancing.”
The war also solidified that the Caspian basin and South Caucasus are inextricably linked to the greater Middle East.
Russia and Turkey are basing their strategies in the region on developments in the Middle East and the Black Sea region. Not since the end of the Soviet Union has the South Caucasus been such a critical point for the West, especially the incoming Biden administration.
But time is critical and any further delay in active U.S. policy could spell disaster for Georgia, which serves as a door to the Caspian and on to Central Asia.
The West has been in regression in the region for quite some time now; the Karabakh war only brought it to the light, and it must be proactive if things are to change.
Much will depend on the U.S. and its new administration, but the West will have to come to an understanding with Turkey, even if it be limited, to salvage its deteriorating position in the region.
After all, the South Caucasus has always been the only theater where Turkish and Western interests have always coincided. Considering its limited presence in the region, the West could consider backing Turkey.
Not only would it serve as a reconciliatory gesture pleasing Ankara, but it would also limit Russia’s movement in the region. With the ink about to dry on who will influence the region, the West must immediately adapt its approach if it wishes to have any input in the rapidly changing geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
Author’s note: first published in dailysabah
An Impending Revolution
Even on the end note, the year contains surprises enough to deem it as a year of instability and chaos given every nook and cranny around the globe is riddled with a new crisis every day. Latest down in the tally is the country of Belarus that has hardly streamlined over at least half a decade but now is hosting up as a venue to rippling protests in almost all the districts of its capital, Minsk. The outrage has resulted from the massive rigging imputed on the communist party in ruling for almost three decades since the split of Soviet Union in 1994. With Europe and Russia divided on the front as the protests and violence continue to rage: a revolution is emerging as a possibility.
The historical map of Belarus is nearly as complex as the geographical landscape which might only stand next to Afghanistan in terms of the intricacies faced by a landlocked country as such. Belarus is located in the Eastern European region bordered by Russia to the north-eastern perimeter. Poland borderlines the country to the West while Ukraine shares a border in the South. The NATO members, Lithuania and Latvia, outskirt the borders of Belarus in the Northwest, making the region as a prime buffer between the Russian regime and the western world. As Belarus stands as a junction between the European Union (EU) and Russia, the proximal nature brings about interests of either parties in the internal affairs of Minsk. However, the nature of the bond shared between the trio is by no means a triangle unlike other former soviet nations since Belarus has casted its absolute loyalty to Russia since the split of Soviet Union and ultimate accession to power of president, Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of the Communist Party of Belarus. Along with the alliance, however, came the unwanted dependency since over the 26-year rule of Lukashenko, he crippled the economy and the political writ of Belarus, using every last ounce of authority to subdue the opposition and the democratic mechanism of the country, earning him the nefarious title ‘Europe’s last dictator’.
The outburst of protests today stems from this very problem that is more deep-rooted than what comes across as apparent. The excessive and draconian use of power and autonomy has invalidated the independence of Belarusians and turned them haplessly at the mercy of Russian aid and support while blocking out any western support in the name of guarding national sovereignty. The ongoing surge of dissent was triggered earlier in August when the elections turned about to be absurdly rigged in favour of Alexander Lukashenko, granting him an indelible majority of 80% of the total vote count along with a lifetime of rule over the country despite his blatant unpopularity across the country. The accusations were further solidified when one of the popular opposing candidates, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, casted a complaint with the authorities regarding the falsification of election results. Instead of being appeased, she was detained for 7 straight hours and was even forced to exile to the neighbouring country of Lithuania. This resulted in major tide of riots and protests erupting all across Minsk, preceding over 3000 arrests over the election night.
On the official front, however, an aggressive stance was upheld along with a constant refusal of Lukashenko from stepping down from the long-held office or even considering a review of the polls counted despite exorbitant reports of unfair results. Heavy use of rubber bullets and tear gas was an eccentric protocol adopted by the local police force which instead of placating the rioters, further ignited the protests in more districts of the capital city. The anti-government relies also entitled ‘March of Neighbours’ transitioned into a high scale protest with many of the state employees resigning from their positions to stand upright against the long overdue corrupt regime. With the protests raging over months and the Lukashenko government getting more and more aggressive with their policies, the fear that once sparkled in the eyes of the natives is dwindling exceedingly and is turning into a cry for an outright revolution, which would be a ground-breaking one ever since the revolution of Iran back in 1979.
European counties have taken their conventional passive position in the crisis sinceEU is well aware of the Russian influence in Belarus and does not want to interfere with a probability of a direct conflict with Russia. However, they did call out their protest over the rigged elections, slapping sanctions over Belarus yet have not accused Lukashenko directly but instead have proposed a thorough international dialogue. Russia, on the other hand, faces a complex position since the dependence of Belarus bought Moscow a base against the West along with other regional rogues like Ukraine. However, high scale protests and rising chances of a full-blown revolution is hardly the choice Russian intends to opt. As the situation continues to unfold, economic reforms, as promised by Lukashenko, appears to be the only option that both EU and Russia could encourage as a bipartisan plan. Despite that, with six months of protests erupting as an outrage over a tyranny of 26 years, the reform-offering might be a bit late an offer since its no more about the country anymore, it’s about a struggle between a liberal or a communist Belarus.
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