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Economy

India’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

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Foreign Exchange Reserves refer to the international reserves held by a country’s central bank. RBI holds India’s foreign exchange reserves (“FX reserves”) in the form of foreign currency assets, gold, Special Drawing Rights (“SDRs”) and Reserve Tranche position in the IMF. India’s foreign reserves have been increasing since the beginning of this decade, reaching an all time high at $474660 Million as of April 10, 2020.

High foreign reserves are considered to be helpful for a developing economy like India which has a large Current Account Deficit. Adequate reserves ensure availability of foreign financial assets within the country and enhance its potential to survive shock waves in the economy. These are treated as backup funds to be used in the case of financial crisis. Foreign reserves play a crucial role in increasing international trade, controlling inflation and maintaining the value of local currency by buying and selling of reserves. During 2008, it was the reserves that came to India’s rescue after foreign institutional investors pulled out $12 billion out of stocks and foreign currency vanished. At that time, India’s import cover was 15 months and it might not be wrong to assume after observing the recent trends that RBI is moving towards the same direction. With reserves in account, investors remain confident that there won’t be much disruption if a crisis erupts.

The recent increase has been attributed to the government’s corporate tax cut which led to increase in investment from Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) and also external factors such as US Federal bank’s interest rate cut. FX reserves are used to maintain stable exchange rate and prevent rupee from depreciating. FX reserves are also used to maintain balance of payments. When there is macroeconomic imbalance in the country i.e. when demand exceeds supply, FX reserves are released to pay for imports.

J CURVE THEORY and LAG

J curve theory states, after depreciation of currency of a particular country, its trade deficit will first increase for some time before decreasing. The reason behind this is, the country’s imports will not reduce overnight and it will take time for consumers to shift to local products and till that time, country will have to spend more to import goods because of depreciation of local currency. But after a point of time, consumers will start buying locally manufactured products as they will become cheaper, the imports will decrease. Exports will also increase at the same time as its goods will become cheaper for other countries as well.

There will be a time lag from the point depreciation or devaluation occurs and the point when country achieves trade surplus. This occurs because there are some contracts regarding the purchase of goods which have to be fulfilled. So, the trading of those goods already contracted for is not immediately stopped.  The country will have to maintain its FX reserves according to the time lag it’s expected to face. In India, this time lag, through empirical research is found to be 18-24 months, which is a substantial time period. And to cover imports of about 2 years, India would need 1440 billion USD in reserves, with average monthly import bill in 2019 being $40 billion. Though all imports will not be funded from reserves but reserves will have to be enough to provide backup to importers and confidence to international markets. However to move to a trade surplus economy, a country also needs to satisfy the Marshall Lerner condition. It refers to a model which says a country’s balance of trade will become favorable only when the combined price elasticity of demand for imports and exports is more than one. In other words, if the imports are inelastic, the country’s imports will not decrease and it will have to pay a higher import bill and similarly if the demand of its goods is inelastic in the foreign markets, exports will not increase by much; further increasing the trade deficit. Therefore both the demand of imports and exports together needs to be elastic so that effect of depreciation is large enough to be visible in an economy.

THE CASE OF INDIA

The price elasticity of export and import demand in India is about 0.9 and 0.7 respectively which adds up to more than one. Thus, India satisfies the Marshall Lerner condition. This doesn’t mean RBI should let its currency depreciate. I say this because of following reasons.

First of all, there is no certainty over how much the rupee should depreciate. To depreciate the rupee it will have to increase its supply in the economy which could be done by buying dollars or other currencies from the market in exchange for rupee which will lead to increase in FX reserves. However, how much rupees to release is not certain. Even if it had been certain, depreciation could prove harmful for India as many entities who had borrowed from outside the country would find difficult to repay the loan which will impact the credit rating of India which is not very good even now.

There is also a possibility that exports may not rise even after depreciation. The fundamental rule behind export increase after depreciation is that goods of that country become cheaper for the foreign consumers, however the importing country might not let this happen by increasing tariffs on imports from that country. This was what led to US-China trade war.

If rupee depreciates, India will have to cover the time lag which is approximately 2 years according to some estimates. During this period, import bill will increase beyond reach and can pose serious problems for the economy. Also, if the crude oil prices increase in the international market, the import bill of India will further rise because India still doesn’t have any alternate resources which could replace oil to its full capacity. Oil constitutes 27% of India’s imports and paying a higher amount for oil would be a huge burden on the FX reserves.

WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

India has foreign exchange reserves of more than 461 billion, which according to the global standards are very high. Using the universally accepted Guidotti-Greenspan rule, the FX reserves should at least equal the short term external debt (STED) of a country. The reason given behind this is that countries should remain prepared for the outflow of short term foreign capital i.e. they should at least have the reserves to meet the liabilities of next one year. If India moves according to this its reserves should be 108.41 billion USD as it is the STED, as on March, 2019.

Most countries tend to reserve amount greater than the short term debt to remain on the safe side if any financial crisis erupts. However, there is an opportunity cost of holding reserves. The reserves kept in US treasury bills have a very low interest rate of about 2-4%, means it is hard to gain anything by keeping reserves. Also higher the reserves, higher are the opportunity costs. As the cost rises, the marginal utility from holding the reserves decreases. Therefore India should release some of its reserves for productive purposes.

In current situation, where government has rightly though arguably extended the lockdown to curb the spread of the disease, it has become necessary than ever to stabilize the economy. With huge disruptions on both the supply and demand side, there is a need for huge funding. Government at the same time cannot expand its fiscal deficit beyond a certain limit. At such time, FX reserves should come to the rescue; government should withdraw some of the reserves to provide for basic needs of millions of poor of India who are now left without any source of income. Keeping in mind, the opportunity cost of reserves, India should take a decision on releasing them at this crucial juncture when whole world is fighting the pandemic.

Economy

The Philippines’ Circular Future

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From the period of 2000-2019 The Philippines placed 4th as the most affected by climate-related disasters according to the Climate Risk Index. This is because geographically, it occupies an area that makes it a hotspot for tropical typhoons and other natural disasters. But the system of rural livelihood in the Philippines and it’s archipelagic state are also contributing factors to its vulnerability to the impacts brought about by the climate crisis, such as sea-level rise and extreme weather events.

Understanding these realities, the government has been proactive in developing the country’s adaptive and mitigating capacities.  These efforts are seen in their national and global initiatives such as the establishment of The Climate Change Act of 2009, a law that aims to prevent and reduce the adverse impact of climate change, as well as taking part in the Paris Agreement through its NDCs that commits to a 75% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030.

A Circular Economy

Beyond the health and social crises caused by COVID19 pandemic, it has also underscored the importance of fast tracking climate action and the need to rethink economic systems through circular models as supported by the Department of Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III. Currently, the House Bill (HB) 7609, also known as “Philippine Circular Economy Act of 2020” is being proposed to serve as a mitigation strategy to accelerate the country’s contribution to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development through mainstreaming of circular and sustainable consumption and production strategies. Similarly, according to The Circularity Gap Report 2021 of the Circle Economy, the implementation of a circular economy would complement the efforts of the NDCs globally, as it will aid in keeping the global temperature rise to well below 2degC by 2032.[1]

Circular economy is a consumption production model that in essence would allow elimination of waste through maximizing the use of valuable resources within systems, the opposite of current linear economies in which products are disposed of after use. This can be achieved by ensuring that materials circulate within operating networks while also allowing natural systems to regenerate. In order to implement this effectively would require collective commitment from stakeholders across the value chain i.e. from the public and private sector, up to the consumers.

Inline with this pursuit, among other proposed key initiatives of the government that are being developed is the Single Use Plastic Regulation Act (HB 9147), a tiered phase-out plan for single-use plastics (SUPs) that aims to improve the country’s waste management and promote circularity. The HB 9147 is also aimed to foster engagement within the business community through the integration of an Extended Producers Responsibility (EPR) scheme. This EPR scheme will serve as a policy tool that would instill accountability from producers throughout the lifecycle of their products that utilize plastic packaging. This scheme will promote funding and collaboration among the private sector and the government through the shared responsibility in managing these waste. At the same time this will encourage innovation of more sustainable and eco-friendly designs for products and packaging.

Business opportunities in the shift from linear to circular pathways

Accordingly, these proposed policies should not be viewed as threats by businesses in order to reap the benefits it entails. Gary Steele, group CEO of TES, enumerates several opportunities that businesses can leverage from this scheme, such as improved reputation and customer relationship through extended value adding services. Steele recognizes that this system also decentralizes sources of raw materials needed for the production of goods, thus contributing to strengthening the supply chain. As such, a circular economy would open avenues for innovative business opportunities that would result from the recycling of waste materials and even repair of products among others. Ultimately these opportunities contribute to reduced cost and increased profits, making a strong case for the implementation in business models and marketing strategies.

Building momentum towards transformational change

However, the degree of circularity within the Philippines is still relatively low as noted in a study by the Asian Development Bank in 2020[2]. Reasons for this are mainly due to its large primary resource extraction sector, growing infrastructure development and poor waste management at municipal levels. Albeit laws such as the Ecological Solid Waste Management Act of 2000 have been implemented, the country’s lenient law enforcement and lack of infrastructure continues to serve as barriers to its waste management efforts.

That being said, it is imperative that the Philippines continues to develop an enabling environment for businesses to champion circularity through financial incentives, new legislations and the enforcement of already existing laws. Given the economic, environmental and social benefits that a circular economy presents, it’s vital that it continues to build on this current momentum in contextualizing and mainstreaming the concept of a circular economy in the country. It is important that the countries, including the Philippines, exhaust all efforts in contributing to climate action to prevent the forecasted catastrophic events that lie ahead. This would need transformational changes in our systems, one of which is a shift to a circular future.


[1] Circle Economy. (2021). The Circularity Gap Report 2021.

[2] ADB. (2020). Regional: Supporting Implementation of Environment-Related Sustainable Development Goals in Asia and the Pacific (Philippine Subproject) Circular Economy in the Philippines.

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Economy

Will Meritocracy Save The Post Pandemic World?

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The Reality of Human Endurance: Protection of self-incompetence is a condition of the human heart as our own self-discovery by our own mind only exposes us to our own fragility and our limits on our already acquired skills. Despite such skills always surrounded by additional untapped hidden talents, but when passages of excruciating pain required achieving transformative advancements the heart draws curtain to such adventures out of fear. 

Most importantly at times, self-discovery alerts us of a dormant self-destructive beast living in stagnation within us. To advance and search for any new thought, any new skill, or any new enlightenment,  it is always an odyssey for the mind, to search for wisdom is to fight monsters, like a warrior on a bold adventure of courage in a lonely journey.  Be a warrior and discover your own universe of hidden talents. Meritocracy awaits for you…

Most economies of the world already visibly damaged, Covid-19,a new sheriff in town, a dealer’s choice game on the table; needed is an ace card to bring meritocracy, performance, productivity and profitability or lose big time. Select a few nations of your choice, observe their levels of executions and digitization, study their bureaucracies and determine their rate of resilience and if and how they will survive over the next five years. Now, the real difficult questions

Why shut down the electricity of the building and climb the skyscraper via the staircase. After all the gross negligence by most nations to neglect digitization and to not to adopt almost free technologies is now visible as an unforgivable fault. Digitization, most critically needed in the main economic hubs, trade-groups, associations and the entire small medium businesses across the nation on integrated platforms. With the majority of nations locked up in an old mindset. They simply cannot zip up to the top floor, exhausted and breathless as they are climbing stairs and badly stuck on lower floors.  

Therefore, what is wrong with stubbornly bureaucratic mindset and why it refuses to showcase its diversity of talents and skills to the world. Most importantly, why are such questions not part of the daily national debates?  Why are layers of economic development leadership so shy, trade groups so afraid and political leadership so confused about it?  

The New Realities: Post pandemic recovery will take no prisoners. Out of the cage, the constant mutation of our economic thought has now morphed into an ugly monster. Alarm bells are ringing. The world has changed on economic behaviorism every millennia and this period is no different. Eventually modern intelligentsia of the world, seeking common good, one again will pass through the eye of the needle and arrive on the other side badly battered and bruised but a bit better. This is how humankind has saved itself from total obliteration. This is how the global populace has learned to linger as economic shifts of power are coming near you.

The Rise of Meritocracy: Unless bureaucracies unlearn to leave their broken past behind, embrace the future, digital platforms, global diversity and exportability, the paper-based mindset economies will only end up in waste-paper-baskets.  Meritocracy will eat bureaucracy for lunch. There is no other way. Soon it is going to be lunchtime. 

Adjustments: acquire mastery of such affairs on fast track; rediscover constant learning, constant disruptions and constant advancements, future needs a new global-age mindset. Understanding of the micro manufacturing and micro-exports logic is a key issue, the digital platforms and the sense to where commerce headed are the landscapes.  Unless western economies rediscover manufacturing, blended with technology, platform economies the billions will march down on the old system.

Century ago, the industrial age forced acquisition of heaviest machinery to advance, now there is nothing heavy investments, but the free flying minds on freely available technologies and platforms that are in charge.Today optimization of freely available technology requires little or no muscle power but definitely demands superior mental-powers. Upstanding how to use critical thinking and declaring lifelong learning as a normal requirement will bridge progress. Smartness today means to identify your hidden enemies; knowing what messages that draw you towards tribalism, hate and destruction, knowing what is Media and what is fakery, what is Social Media or if Political Rhetoric is nothing but a special agenda to divide and conquer. Do not become divisible.    

What a difference a century makes, during 1922, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics formed, Tomb of Tutankhamen discovered, BBC formed and Gandhi put in Prison by the British. Our 2022 will unfold the post pandemic economic realities. With dozens of elections, reshuffling of cabinets, recycling of promises and Teleprompters on garage sales the socio-econo mood swings will test freedom to yell the truth.

Global shift of powers now defined. Colossal economic failures identified. Global opinion solidifies. Universal struggles start to appear. Neither, super-taxing bearers of the Pandora papers will save the economies nor will the real surprises out of the Pandora’s Box from hyperinflation to hyper-deflation will save us. Candle light visit to tragic landscapes of Beirut speaks volume as it sinks to the dark ages. Uplift mobilization of entrepreneurialism will save nations. Advancements towards “meritocracy” are personal development trends, therefore, a call of the times, a new truth, and new reality. Change and change again, statues are for the birds to poop on…

The rest is easy 

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Economy

Work safely from Paradise

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Due to the pandemic, Caribbean nations have been among the most impacted and most devastated economies, as most of them rely on tourism to keep their economies afloat. Tourism has decreased dramatically as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the suspension of air travel, with the Caribbean countries seeing a 69% percent drop. This has inevitably caused a major shock to Caribbean economies, requiring them to adopt measures to mitigate the pandemic’s economic consequences. Caribbean nations have made a number of steps to lure remote workers to their country, including launching a range of programmes. This has been accomplished by creating new visa categories and using targeted marketing to entice remote workers and freelancers to come and remain in Caribbean countries, allowing them to “Work from Paradise.”

This approach has also been warmly received by the broader Caribbean population, as it allows remote employees from other parts of the world to come and work in the Caribbean without displacing local workers. Increasing income from foreign travelers/remote employees is also helping to improve local trade and the Caribbean economy, making this a win-win situation for Caribbean countries. Given the ongoing movement from traditional workplaces to remote working and digital workspaces, there is a fantastic opportunity for Caribbean countries to fill this new niche and grow their economies. Countries whose economy are based on tourism can genuinely benefit from this potential, since digital nomadism is expected to grow even more in the post-covid era. Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Curacao, Dominica, and Montserrat are among the Caribbean countries that have introduced digital nomad visas and similar programmes to improve their economies. Emphasizing the low cases of Covid in these countries make them more than ideal locations to work safely.

Such visa programs have received widespread support across the world, as seen by the enormous popularity of Barbados’ Welcome Stamp, which allows remote workers to stay as digital nomads in Barbados for a period of 12 months. This has aided in the inflow of income into the country, boosting the Caribbean nation’s economic condition. To take advantage of these digital visa programs even more, Caribbean nations have been investing in infrastructure, communications, and healthcare to improve their facilities and entice more digital nomads to their country. This has also led in economic growth, owing to the increased focus on communications infrastructure, which has resulted in quicker and more reliable internet access. Not only has this boosted the economy, but it has also benefited local businesses and the Caribbean public because of the enhanced, stable access to the digital domain. Barbados’ capacity to swiftly attract digital nomads and investments due to its fast internet speeds demonstrates the necessity of good digital infrastructure and a fast, stable internet connection. The advantages to other Caribbean countries’ economy will surely be larger than merely attracting digital nomads if they invest in internet infrastructure as well. Having personally visited and have done business in many of these Caribbean nations, it is not a bad thing working from paradise.

Apart from focusing on remote workers and digital nomads, Caribbean countries have been working on a variety of fronts to strengthen their economy. To begin with, several Caribbean nations are concentrating on regional domestic tourism as an underserved market and are thus recruiting Caribbean residents to strengthen their tourist-based economies. This is assisting in bringing in revenue for pandemic-affected countries. Second, to stimulate economic growth, Caribbean nations are investing in both physical and digital infrastructure to give their economies a boost amid the Covid pandemic. This infrastructure investment has not only helped their economies float, but it has also brought in some much-needed cash, thanks to greater, reliable access to digital markets. Finally, Caribbean nations are focused on stabilizing and assisting small and medium-sized businesses to keep them active and operational and avoid additional income and revenue losses. The Caribbean economies are trying to not just stabilize, but also to increase their economic growth, using tactics and strategies like these to take advantage of the new global realities brought about by the Covid pandemic. If all the Caribbean nations take use of the pandemic’s productive potential, they will be able to ride out the pandemic wave with little to no economic consequences in the long term.

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