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OECD updates G20 summit on outlook for global economy

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Efforts to contain virus and save lives should be intensified, and governments should plan stronger, more coordinated measures to absorb growing economic blow

Increasingly stringent containment measures needed to slow the spread of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) will necessarily lead to significant short-term declines in GDP for many major economies, according to new OECD projections. 

OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, in preparation to the G20 Virtual Summit that took place yesterday, unveiled the latest OECD estimates showing that the lockdown will directly affect sectors amounting to up to one third of GDP in the major economies. For each month of containment, there will be a loss of 2 percentage points in annual GDP growth. The tourism sector alone faces an output decrease as high as 70%.  Many economies will fall into recession. This is unavoidable, as we need to continue fighting the pandemic, while at the same time putting all the efforts to be able to restore economic normality as fast as possible.

‌“The high costs that public health measures are imposing today are necessary to avoid much more tragic consequences and even worse impact on our economies tomorrow,” Mr Gurría said. “Millions of deaths and collapsed health care systems will decimate us financially and as a society, so slowing this epidemic and saving human lives must be governments’ first priority.

“Our analysis further underpins the need for sharper action to absorb the shock, and a more coordinated response by governments to maintain a lifeline to people and a private sector that will emerge in a very fragile state when the health crisis is past.”

Mr. Gurría welcomed the outcome of the G20 Virtual Summit, hosted by the Saudi Presidency, and the resolve shown by the G20 members to use all ammunition to support people and SME’s. In his statement, Mr Gurría built on his recent call for a “global Marshall Plan” to counteract the pandemic’s effects. To “inoculate” economies to current and future shocks, he urged the G20 Leaders to act immediately, to:  

Recapitalise health and epidemiological systems;

Mobilise all macroeconomic levers: monetary, fiscal, and structural policies;

Lift existing trade restrictions especially on much needed medical supplies;  

Provide support to vulnerable developing and low income countries; 

Share and implement best practices to support workers and all individuals, employed and unemployed – particularly the most vulnerable;

Keep businesses afloat, particularly small and medium-sized firms, with special support packages in hardest hit sectors such as tourism.

Mr Gurría stressed that the implications for annual GDP growth will ultimately depend on many factors, including the magnitude and duration of national shutdowns, the extent of reduced demand for goods and services in other parts of the economy and the speed at which significant fiscal and monetary support takes effect. 

In all economies, the majority of this impact comes from the hit to output in retail and wholesale trade, and in professional and real estate services. There are notable cross-country differences in some sectors, with closures of transport manufacturing relatively important in some countries, while the decline in tourist and leisure activities is relatively important in others.


The impact effect of business closures could result in reductions of 15% or more in the level of output throughout the advanced economies and major emerging-market economies. In the median economy, output would decline by 25%.

Variations in the impact effect across economies reflect differences in the composition of output. Many countries in which tourism is relatively important could potentially be affected more severely by shutdowns and limitations on travel. At the other extreme, countries with relatively sizeable agricultural and mining sectors, including oil production, may experience smaller initial effects from containment measures, although output will be subsequently hit by reduced global commodity demand. 

There will also be some variation in the timing of the initial impact on output across economies, reflecting differences in the timing and degree of containment measures. In China, the peak adverse impact on output is already past, with some shutdown measures now being eased.

The OECD has committed its expertise to support governments in developing  effective policies in any sector necessary to slow the pandemic’s spread and blunt its economic and societal effects – from health, taxes, labour and employment to SME’s, education, science and technology, trade and investment and more. Through its brand-new platform launched in response to the crisis, OECD provides timely data, analysis, advice and solutions as well as information on policy responses in countries around the world. 

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Finance

Uzbekistan and World Bank to Expand Strategic Partnership

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Photo credit: Press Service of the President of Uzbekistan.

Anna, Bjerde, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia, visited Uzbekistan from September 29 to October 2, 2022, as part of a broader trip to Central Asia. Ms. Bjerde met with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, as well as senior government officials, and beneficiaries of a World Bank-funded project that is helping improve rural infrastructure in Uzbekistan.

During her meeting with President Mirziyoyev, Ms. Bjerde discussed the results of 30 years of partnership between Uzbekistan and the World Bank, an anniversary which was celebrated in September this year. President Mirziyoyev and Ms. Bjerde noted in particular the achievements of the stepped-up World Bank financial and advisory support to help Uzbekistan implement transformative economic and social reforms since 2017, and they agreed to expand strategic bilateral cooperation across several economic and social spheres.

Ms. Bjerde also held talks with senior Uzbek government officials, including Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Jamshid Kuchkarov, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Investments and Foreign Trade Jamshid Khodjaev, Minister of Finance Timur Ishmetov, Chairman of the Board of the Central Bank Mamarizo Nurmuratov, and Director General of the Agency for Strategic Reforms Shukhrat Vafaev.

In her meetings with counterparts, Ms. Bjerde discussed the implementation of the recently launched Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Uzbekistan for the next five years. The CPF supports the authorities in developing the private sector to create new jobs and reduce poverty, improving human capital, building a green and sustainable economy, closing gender gaps, and creating conditions for wider citizen engagement. The CPF is aligned with the Development Strategy of the New Uzbekistan for 2022-26 and will help the authorities achieve the country’s ambitious development goals.

Ms. Bjerde and counterparts also discussed the progress of the Government’s reforms and World Bank support to reforming and privatizing state-owned enterprises and banks, modernizing agriculture, energy, financial and other strategic sectors, improving education, healthcare, and social protection services, developing transport connectivity, improving rural and urban infrastructure, empowering women, and improving the business and investment climate. Discussions were also held around the upcoming Country Climate and Development Report that the World Bank is preparing for Uzbekistan.

“We welcome that, despite the ongoing global shocks and crises, Uzbekistan’s path for reforms and development impact for its citizens through an inclusive and sustainable market economy transition remains the top priority for the Government,” said Anna Bjerde. “As we celebrate the 30th anniversary of the partnership with Uzbekistan, the World Bank looks forward to supporting the authorities reach their ambitious development goals through implementing the Country Partnership Framework which outlines our financial and advisory support for the reform agenda and priority development projects in the years to come.”

During her stay in Uzbekistan, Ms. Bjerde also visited Saroy village, located in the Jizzakh Region, and met with local residents, students, parents, and teachers. Saroy is one of 306 remote villages in five regions of the country benefiting from a rural infrastructure development project, which is being implemented by the Government with financial support from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

The project directly involves local communities through a participatory process to identify their infrastructure needs. In over 175 villages, residents have already produced community development plans, which will receive funding to implement sub-projects, such as the upgrading or construction of drinking water, gas, and electricity supply systems, roads, schools, and other basic infrastructure and services.

The residents of Saroy village voted for the rehabilitation of the local school that had been built decades ago and did not meet public building codes and standards. During their meeting with Ms. Bjerde, they presented the community’s experience in developing and supervising the implementation of a sub-project that completely rebuilt and expanded the school’s facilities. The school is now able to accommodate more students from Saroy and neighboring villages and is better equipped to ensure student learning.

The World Bank’s country program in Uzbekistan is among the top three largest in the Europe and Central Asia region. As of October 1, 2022, it consisted of 27 projects, with net commitments totaling around $4.76 billion.

These projects provide support in critical areas, such as macroeconomic reforms and the modernization of agriculture, water resource management, water supply and sanitation, energy, transport, health, education, social protection, urban and rural infrastructure, national innovation, tax administration, statistical and financial systems, etc. They also help in the mitigation of the health, social, and economic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as build resilience from the impacts of climate change.

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Finance

Egypt: US$ 400 Million Project will Help to Improve and Decarbonize Logistics

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World Bank approved a US$400 million development financing agreement to enhance the performance of the logistics and transportation sectors in Egypt and to support the shift towards low-carbon transportation along the Alexandria–the 6th of October–Greater Cairo Area (GCA) railway corridor.

Egypt’s rail system is one of the most extensive in Africa, with a generally heavier focus on its passenger services, and three freight trains per direction per day in the GCA with the rest dedicated to passenger trains. 

The Cairo Alexandria Trade Logistics Development Project will implement a railway bypass to the congested GCA. The bypass will provide freight trains between the Alexandria Sea Port and the newly constructed 6th of October Dry Port, with an alternative route to the west of Greater Cairo. The operational bypass will also allow 15 container trains per day by 2030, and as demand increases, 50 trains by 2060 to this dry port. Additional freight trains will flow between the Alexandria Port, Upper Egypt, and the Red Sea.  

The transportation sector is the second largest contributor to Egypt’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions after energy—contributing approximately 19 percent. Transporting containers and other freight by train has a lower carbon footprint than by road. The Bank estimates the project will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 965,000 tons over 30 years.   

The project also supports advancing the government’s reform effort to improve the railway sector’s performance and promote private sector participation by creating Egypt’s Infrastructure Access Charging regime. This charging regime is similar to a toll on roads or airport fees. Private investors can operate their trains on the tracks of the Egypt National Railways Authority for a fee, hence boosting this authority’s finances. 

The Government of Egypt is committed to SDG 13: Climate Action by designing and implementing mitigation projects that establish an advanced, sustainable and clean transportation network, while also decreasing carbon footprint. Sustainable transport projects, many of which are carried out in cooperation with Egypt’s development partners and private sector, carry much significance in terms of driving the country’s economic growth and empowering Egyptian citizens across the country, connecting bigger cities and business districts, and providing more job opportunities. The Cairo Alexandria Trade Logistics Development Project will support national efforts to transition to lower carbon transportation and ensure the safe and fast delivery of people and goods; a key element in our growing economy,” said Dr. Rania A. Al-Mashat, Egypt’s Minister of International Cooperation.

The project will also encourage female labor force participation by supporting the professional development of female employees as well as the availability of childcare.  

The project will upgrade the track and signaling on four segments –including a greenfield one– between Alexandria, the 6th of October City, and the GCA to achieve an operational railway bypass to the GCA. This railway bypass will increase capacity particularly for freight trains while decongesting the Greater Cairo Area where demand for passenger trains is high.  

Reforming the transportation and logistics sectors is vital to Egypt’s competitiveness and economic development,” said Lieutenant General Kamel El Wazir, Egypt’s Minister of Transportation. “This new project introduces several improvements in those vital sectors. The improvements are aligned with Egypt’s pressing development priorities, which include decarbonization, trade facilitation, private sector participation, and gender balance in the workplace. Increasing the number of containers moved by rail from zero to 184,000 per year is one of the project’s key objectives. This flow of containers is primarily between the Alexandria Sea Port and the 6th of October Dry Port, both privately operated and railway oriented.”

The project will support Egypt’s integration into global value chains and its efforts to become a regional trading hub. This project will significantly contribute to Egypt’s 2050 Climate Change plan, given the expected reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

This operation is part of a wider set of efforts dedicated to offering timely and comprehensive support to Egypt’s economic development and climate change plans,” said Marina Wes, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen, and Djibouti. “We hope that through supporting more job creation, including for women, a cleaner environment, and providing safer mobility, the operation will contribute towards a brighter and more prosperous future for all Egyptians.” 

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Fight against human trafficking must be strengthened in Ethiopia

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A group of internally displaced people due to the Tigray conflict gather in a site in Ethiopia's Afar region, Ethiopia. © UNHCR/Alessandro Pasta

Throughout Ethiopia’s Tigray, Afar and Amhar regions, women and girls are becoming increasingly vulnerable to abduction and sex trafficking as they flee ongoing armed conflict, a group of UN-appointed independent human rights experts warned on Monday.

The protracted conflict in the three northern regions have heightened risks of trafficking for sexual exploitation as a form of sexual violence in conflict, the experts said in a statement.

“We are alarmed by reports of refugee and internally displaced women and girls in the Tigray, Afar, and Amhara regions being abducted while attempting to move to safer places,” they said.

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“We are concerned at the risks of trafficking, in particular for purposes of sexual exploitation, including sexual slavery.” 

Women and children in crosshairs

Amidst abductions and displacement, the UN experts raised serious concerns over Eritrean refugee women and children being at particular risk of sex trafficking.

“Urgent action is needed to prevent trafficking, especially for purposes of sexual exploitation, and to ensure assistance and protection of all victims, without discrimination on grounds of race or ethnicity, nationality, disability, age or gender,” they said.  

Meanwhile, the hundreds of children who have been separated from their families, especially in the Tigray region, are particularly vulnerable, warned the independent experts.

“The continuing lack of humanitarian access to the region is a major concern,” the experts continued, urging immediate national, bilateral and multilateral measures to prevent all forms of trafficking of children and to ensure their protection.

Identifying victims

They added that sufficient measures were not being taken to identify victims of trafficking, or support their recovery in ways that fully takes account of the extreme trauma being suffered.

“The failure to provide accountability for these serious human rights violations and grave crimes creates a climate of impunity, allows trafficking in persons to persist and perpetrators to go free,” underscored the six UN experts.

They urged all relevant stakeholders to ensure that victims of trafficking can adequately access medical assistance, including sexual and reproductive healthcare services and psychological support.

The experts said they had made their concerns known to both the Governments of Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea.

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