Despite steady growth over the last decade, the future prospects for global
services trade are likely to be dampened by the coronavirus (COVID-19)
epidemic, its likely impact on the global travel and transport service export
sectors, and the ongoing slowdown in global goods trade, according to PwC’s
latest Global Economy Watch.
Mixed outlook for global services trade
Service exports account for around 23% of global exports and, while they remain largely exempt from the tariffs inflicted by escalating trade wars, the growth rate of service exports is highly correlated with growth in merchandise exports, highlighting the direct link between trading goods across borders and demand for global transport services.
Looking further ahead into the medium to long-term, the prospects for global services trade are more positive due to continued technological developments, improved access to high-speed internet and real income growth in emerging markets. Barret Kupelian, senior economist at PwC, commented:
“In the short-term, we expect a slowdown in the largest services exports
sector, travel, due to COVID-19. China is the world’s largest source of
international tourists. In 2018, Chinese tourists made 150 million outbound
trips and accounted for around one fifth of global tourism spending. Depending
on how long travel restrictions continue and how wide the spread of the virus
is, there could be significant consequences for the international travel and
“In the medium to long term, however, the outlook for services exports is more positive. In our last World in 2050 report, we projected continued growth in real income levels across both the G7 and E7, which will generate demand for more services. Continued technological breakthroughs, coupled with the spread of faster and cheaper internet connections, mean that newer, more specialised services will continue to be developed, and that it will be easier to trade these across borders. On the regulatory front, there are also some tentative steps being made by the World Trade Organization to set rules for the digital economy, e-commerce and data flows, which could provide an additional impetus to services trade if successfully concluded.”
Shifting balance of power in services
Most of the initial economic analysis on the potential impact has focused
on the 2003
US, UK and Germany world’s largest service exporters
The effects of the shift in global economic power from the West to the East that first started with the manufactured goods sector is now shifting into the services sector. The G7’s share has steadily fallen from 45% in 2005 to 38% in 2018. Meanwhile, the E7’s share has risen from 9% to 12%.
However, the US continues to be the top global exporter of services with a massive 14% share of the global market. The UK, Germany and France follow with shares of 5-6%. China is now the world’s 5th largest services exporter, overtaking the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. China’s exports of services have grown by an average rate of 8% per annum since 2010 in real US$. Meanwhile, India has overtaken Japan and bagged the 8th spot in the global rankings of service exporters in 2018, up from 14th in 2005.
Globally the fastest growing sector since 2005 has been telecommunications, computer and information services, driven predominantly by the emerging markets. Its share of global service exports has grown from 7% to 10% in the last 15 years and, with global internet users expected to grow from 60% of the world’s population today to around 90% by 2030, growth looks set to continue.
Economic impact of coronavirus
While most of the initial economic analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19 has focused on the 2003 SARS outbreak as a comparator, at the time of the SARS epidemic, the Chinese economy accounted for less than 10% of global GDP in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms. Today, China accounts for almost 20%, and for about 11% of total global exports (goods and services) so the economic impact could be substantially larger relative to the SARS episode.
In addition, following China’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in 2001, businesses are increasingly reliant on supply chains that include China, with South East Asian economies more reliant on China as a source of input to their exports, compared to the other advanced economies in the West. Business surveys due out today will start to give an indication of the extent of potential slowdown.
Transition to Low-Carbon Rice Will Help Vietnam Meet Its Emission Target
Moving to low-carbon rice production offers the highest potential for Vietnam to meet its goal of cutting methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030 while boosting the competitiveness of a strategic export item, a new World Bank report says.
The report, titled “Spearheading Vietnam’s Green Agricultural Transformation: Moving to Low-Carbon Rice,” suggests that Vietnam can transform the rice sector by cutting GHG emissions, improving resource efficiency and yields, boosting resilience, and diversifying production. Such transformation will require significant investment and major policy reforms to align incentives and coordinate behaviors of stakeholders at all levels.
“The agricultural sector, despite all its successes, is an important contributor to GHG emissions in Vietnam,” said Carolyn Turk, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam. “It has reached a point where a transition to lower-carbon modes of farming is imperative—the longer it takes to switch, the higher the costs will be. Experience suggests that government has a catalytic role to play in driving the green transition through strategic allocation of public investment and strengthening the enabling environment for private sector participation in a modern, green agriculture sector.”
Rice, which is Vietnam’s most important crop and grown on more than half of its agricultural land area, accounts for 48 percent of the agriculture sector’s GHG emissions and over 75 percent of methane emissions. Based on conservative estimates, improving water management and optimizing application of inputs such as seeds, fertilizers, and pesticide can help farmers maintain or increase yields by 5 to 10 percent and reduce input costs by 20 to 30 percent, thereby boosting net profits by around 25 percent. More importantly, these improved techniques would also help cut GHG emissions by up to 30 percent. Such approaches were successfully piloted in over 184,000 ha of rice farming under the Vietnam Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Project financed by the World Bank.
“These methods have been proven effective,” said Benoît Bosquet, World Bank Regional Director for Sustainable Development in East Asia Pacific. “If we can scale them up in the whole agricultural sector, they will help Vietnam progress towards its 2050 net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target.”
The report highlights five short- to medium-term policy areas to accelerate the transition to low-carbon agriculture, including ensuring policy coherence and plan-budget alignment, repurposing policy tools and public expenditures, promoting public investments, strengthening institutions, and enabling the private sector and other stakeholders to participate.
The report was launched at the “Integrated Climate Resilience and Sustainable Development of the Mekong Delta” workshop, co-organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the World Bank in Can Tho on September 24.
World Bank calls for urgent climate action in Latin America and the Caribbean
A new World Bank report calls on countries in the region to take urgent action to help reduce the impacts of climate change and set a path for the transition to low-carbon economies.
According to the report,A Roadmap for Climate Action in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021-2025, climate-related disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, fires, and floods are becoming increasingly frequent and intense in the region and are the cause of enormous economic losses. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is among the regions most vulnerable to the destructive power of such events, with annual costs due to disruptions in energy and transport infrastructure equivalent to 1 percent of regional GDP and up to 2 percent in some Central American countries.
Furthermore, climate change is expected to have negative impacts on productivity and harvests in several countries in the region. This could exacerbate acute food insecurity, which increased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic to affect more than 16 million people across the region, with many families at risk in 2022 due to higher inflation and food prices. Without action, by 2030, up to 5.8 million people could fall into extreme poverty as a result of climate change, and by 2050 over 17 million people could be forced to leave their homes to escape climate impacts.
“Countries in LAC have a unique opportunity to act swiftly and lead the change towards more resilient and low-carbon economies that foster a better future for their people,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean. “The World Bank has long been a strong partner to the region and as part of our long-term commitment to achieving sustainable and inclusive development, we have stepped up our support, providing about $4.7 billion in climate-related financing during the last year.”
The region is responsible for 8 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The agricultural sector, together with changes in land use and deforestation, accounts for 47 percent of emissions in LAC, well above the global average of 19 percent. Energy, electricity consumption and transportation account for another 43 percent of emissions. The report emphasizes opportunities in these areas for both economic growth and services with lower emissions as key to accelerating climate action and leading an urgent transition to low-carbon economies to avoid the irreversible effects of climate change.
“This report offers an ambitious and urgent roadmap for transformative climate action in the region, building on country climate priorities and commitments and focusing on adaptation and resilience, while supporting countries to achieve their low carbon development goals,” said Anna Wellenstein, Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean in sustainable development.
The report highlights several priority areas in key sectors for new and accelerated climate action:
- Managing landscapes, agriculture and food systems that include deforestation-free value chains
- Decarbonizing power generation, transport systems and manufacturing while reducing infrastructure disruptions
- Making cities more resilient to climate shocks and reducing urban emissions
While supporting cross-cutting actions that:
- help vulnerable populations adapt to climate change and achieve just and equitable transitions to low carbon economies; and
- promote green growth while reducing financial sector risks and anticipating market transitions.
In FY22, the World Bank provided US$4,691 million for climate action in the region, in projects such as:
- Climate Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture (Belize)
- Resilient Connectivity and Urban Transport Accessibility (Haiti)
- Enabling a Green and Resilient Development Policy Financing (Peru)
- Second Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Credit (Honduras)
- Belgrano Sur Passenger Railway Line Modernization Project (Argentina)
The targets of the Roadmap for Climate Action in Latin America and the Caribbean 2021-2025 are grounded in the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) and fully integrate all parts of the World Bank Group to work with a broad range of partners in the development of multisectoral solutions.
Jobs outlook highly uncertain in the wake of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine
OECD labour markets bounced back strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the global employment outlook is now highly uncertain according to a new OECD report.
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has caused lower global growth and higher inflation, with negative impacts on business investment and private consumption.
The OECD Employment Outlook 2022 says that while labour markets remain tight in most OECD countries, lower global growth means employment growth is also likely to slow, while major hikes in energy and commodity prices are generating a cost of living crisis.
Since the low point of the pandemic in April 2020, OECD countries have created about 66 million jobs, 9 million more than those destroyed in a few months at the onset of the pandemic. The OECD unemployment rate stabilised at 4.9% in July 2022, 0.4 points below its pre-pandemic level recorded in February 2020 and at its lowest level since the start of the series in 2001.
The number of unemployed workers in the OECD continued to fall in July and reached 33.0 million, 2.4 million less than before the pandemic.
Looking at individual countries however, the unemployment rate in July remained higher than before the pandemic in one fifth of OECD countries. In a number of countries, labour force participation and employment rates are also still below pre-crisis levels. Moreover, employment is growing more strongly in high pay service industries, while it remains below pre-pandemic levels in many low pay, contact-intensive industries.
“Rising food and energy prices are taking a heavy toll, in particular on low income households,” OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Despite widespread labour shortages, real wages growth is not keeping pace with the current high rates of inflation. In this context, governments should consider well targeted, means-tested and temporary support measures. This would help cushion the impact on households and businesses most in need, while limiting inflation impacts and fiscal cost of that policy support,” he said.
Tight labour market conditions mean that companies across the OECD are confronted with unprecedented labour shortages. In the European Union, almost three in ten manufacturing and service firms reported production constraints in the second quarter of 2022 due to a lack of labour.
Nominal wages are not keeping pace with the rapid rise in inflation. The real value of wages is expected to decline over the course of 2022, as inflation is projected to remain high and generally well above the level expected at the time of relevant collective agreements for 2022. The cost of living crisis is affecting lower-income households disproportionally. They have to devote a significantly larger share of their incomes on energy and food than other groups and were also the population segment falling behind in the jobs recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
In these circumstances, supporting real wages for low-paid workers is essential, according to the report. Governments should consider ways to adjust statutory minimum wages to maintain effective purchasing power for low paid workers. Targeted, means-tested, and temporary social transfers to people most affected by energy and food price hikes would also help support the living standards of the most vulnerable.
In the current circumstances, active discussions between governments, workers and firms on wages will also be key. None of them can absorb the full cost associated with the hike in energy and commodity prices alone. This calls for giving new impetus to collective bargaining, and for rebalancing bargaining power between employers and workers, enabling workers to bargain their wage on a level playing field.
Countries should step up their efforts to reconnect the low-skilled and other vulnerable groups to available jobs. About two thirds of OECD countries have increased their budget for public employment services since the onset of the COVID 19 crisis. However, more funding is not enough: employment and training services need to be integrated, comprehensive and effective in reaching out to employers and job seekers.
Improving job quality for frontline jobs should be an urgent priority for governments. More than half of OECD countries set up one-time rewards to compensate workers in the long-term care sector for extra work during the pandemic. Yet less than 30% of countries have increased pay on an ongoing basis.
The so-called Indonesia-South Korea Special Strategic Partnership
In several attempts, people can find out there are repetition phrases that informally appeared from 5 years ago until now...
GHG emissions from pyrolysis are nine times higher than in mechanical recycling
New study published today by Zero Waste Europe (ZWE) finds that greenhouse gas emissions from pyrolysis of plastic packaging are...
U.S. Incentives for Maintaining a Presence in South East Asia, and the Nature of that Presence
Authors: Aqeel Ahmad Gichki & Adeel Ahmed* The US is the most prominent extra-regional actor in the Southeast Asian area....
What lies ahead for Meloni’s Italy
Not many would have predicted that 100 years after Benito Mussolini’s Black Shirts marched on Rome, a leader claiming lineage...
The Historic Day of Euro’s Downfall
The date August 22 should be remembered as the day of the euro’s “official” downfall. After a long period of...
Pakistani Intelligence Agencies ignite Tribal Conflicts in Pak-Afghan Region
According to the intelligence information, Pakistani intelligence community supported by some international rings want to once again spread dispute and...
Changing Regional Security Paradigm: A Challenge to Kashmir and Options for Pakistan
The post-cold war world has witnessed shifts in international and regional security paradigms. Due to globalization, easy migrations, advanced technologies,...
Science & Technology4 days ago
New archaeology dives into the mysterious demise of the Neanderthals
Russia4 days ago
Russia responds to America’s plan to win WW III
Science & Technology2 days ago
The Development of Artificial Intelligence in China: Advantages and terms of development
Russia3 days ago
The Alliance of Downtrodden Empires
East Asia3 days ago
Russia and the end of North Korea’s Tong-mi bong-nam strategy
International Law4 days ago
The West Goes West: Greed, Speed and the Fear of Simplicity
Middle East3 days ago
Middle Eastern Geopolitics in The Midst of The Russo-Ukrainian War
Eastern Europe3 days ago
Untying the Ukrainian Knot: The Continental Union Project