Despite steady growth over the last decade, the future prospects for global
services trade are likely to be dampened by the coronavirus (COVID-19)
epidemic, its likely impact on the global travel and transport service export
sectors, and the ongoing slowdown in global goods trade, according to PwC’s
latest Global Economy Watch.
Mixed outlook for global services trade
Service exports account for around 23% of global exports and, while they remain largely exempt from the tariffs inflicted by escalating trade wars, the growth rate of service exports is highly correlated with growth in merchandise exports, highlighting the direct link between trading goods across borders and demand for global transport services.
Looking further ahead into the medium to long-term, the prospects for global services trade are more positive due to continued technological developments, improved access to high-speed internet and real income growth in emerging markets. Barret Kupelian, senior economist at PwC, commented:
“In the short-term, we expect a slowdown in the largest services exports
sector, travel, due to COVID-19. China is the world’s largest source of
international tourists. In 2018, Chinese tourists made 150 million outbound
trips and accounted for around one fifth of global tourism spending. Depending
on how long travel restrictions continue and how wide the spread of the virus
is, there could be significant consequences for the international travel and
“In the medium to long term, however, the outlook for services exports is more positive. In our last World in 2050 report, we projected continued growth in real income levels across both the G7 and E7, which will generate demand for more services. Continued technological breakthroughs, coupled with the spread of faster and cheaper internet connections, mean that newer, more specialised services will continue to be developed, and that it will be easier to trade these across borders. On the regulatory front, there are also some tentative steps being made by the World Trade Organization to set rules for the digital economy, e-commerce and data flows, which could provide an additional impetus to services trade if successfully concluded.”
Shifting balance of power in services
Most of the initial economic analysis on the potential impact has focused
on the 2003
US, UK and Germany world’s largest service exporters
The effects of the shift in global economic power from the West to the East that first started with the manufactured goods sector is now shifting into the services sector. The G7’s share has steadily fallen from 45% in 2005 to 38% in 2018. Meanwhile, the E7’s share has risen from 9% to 12%.
However, the US continues to be the top global exporter of services with a massive 14% share of the global market. The UK, Germany and France follow with shares of 5-6%. China is now the world’s 5th largest services exporter, overtaking the Netherlands, Spain and Italy. China’s exports of services have grown by an average rate of 8% per annum since 2010 in real US$. Meanwhile, India has overtaken Japan and bagged the 8th spot in the global rankings of service exporters in 2018, up from 14th in 2005.
Globally the fastest growing sector since 2005 has been telecommunications, computer and information services, driven predominantly by the emerging markets. Its share of global service exports has grown from 7% to 10% in the last 15 years and, with global internet users expected to grow from 60% of the world’s population today to around 90% by 2030, growth looks set to continue.
Economic impact of coronavirus
While most of the initial economic analysis on the potential impact of COVID-19 has focused on the 2003 SARS outbreak as a comparator, at the time of the SARS epidemic, the Chinese economy accounted for less than 10% of global GDP in purchasing power parity (“PPP”) terms. Today, China accounts for almost 20%, and for about 11% of total global exports (goods and services) so the economic impact could be substantially larger relative to the SARS episode.
In addition, following China’s entry to the World Trade Organisation in 2001, businesses are increasingly reliant on supply chains that include China, with South East Asian economies more reliant on China as a source of input to their exports, compared to the other advanced economies in the West. Business surveys due out today will start to give an indication of the extent of potential slowdown.
Post-COVID-19, regaining citizen’s trust should be a priority for governments
The COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated governments’ ability to respond to a major global crisis with extraordinary flexibility, innovation and determination. However, emerging evidence suggests that much more could have been done in advance to bolster resilience and many actions may have undermined trust and transparency between governments and their citizens, according to a new OECD report.
Government at a Glance 2021 says that one of the biggest lessons of the pandemic is that governments will need to respond to future crises at speed and scale while safeguarding trust and transparency. “Looking forward, we must focus simultaneously on promoting the economic recovery and avoiding democratic decline” said OECD Director of Public Governance Elsa Pilichowski. “Reinforcing democracy should be one of our highest priorities.”
Countries have introduced thousands of emergency regulations, often on a fast track. Some alleviation of standards is inevitable in an emergency, but must be limited in scope and time to avoid damaging citizen perceptions of the competence, openness, transparency, and fairness of government.
Governments should step up their efforts in three areas to boost trust and transparency and reinforce democracy:
Tackling misinformation is key. Even with a boost in trust in government sparked by the pandemic in 2020, on average only 51% of people in OECD countries for which data is available trusted their government. There is a risk that some people and groups may be dissociating themselves from traditional democratic processes.
It is crucial to enhance representation and participation in a fair and transparent manner. Governments must seek to promote inclusion and diversity, support the representation of young people, women and other under-represented groups in public life and policy consultation. Fine-tuning consultation and engagement practices could improve transparency and trust in public institutions, says the report. Governments must also level the playing field in lobbying. Less than half of countries have transparency requirements covering most of the actors that regularly engage in lobbying.
Strengthening governance must be prioritised to tackle global challenges while harnessing the potential of new technologies. In 2018, only half of OECD countries had a specific government institution tasked with identifying novel, unforeseen or complex crises. To be fit for the future, and secure the foundations of democracy, governments must be ready to act at speed and scale while safeguarding trust and transparency.
Governments must also learn to spend better, according to Government at a Glance 2021. OECD countries are providing large amounts of support to citizens and businesses during this crisis: measures ongoing or announced as of March 2021 represented, roughly, 16.4% of GDP in additional spending or foregone revenues, and up to 10.5% of GDP via other means. Governments will need to review public spending to increase efficiency, ensure that spending priorities match people’s needs, and improve the quality of public services.
Sweden: Invest in skills and the digital economy to bolster the recovery from COVID-19
Sweden’s economy is on the road to recovery from the shock of the COVID-19 crisis, yet risks remain. Moving ahead with a labour reform to facilitate adaptation in a fast-changing economic environment, and investing in digital skills and infrastructure, will be crucial to revive employment and build a sustainable recovery, according to the latest OECD Economic Survey of Sweden.
The pandemic triggered a severe recession in Sweden, despite mild distancing measures and swift government action to protect people and businesses. GDP fell by less than in many other European economies in 2020, thanks to reinforced short-time work, compensation to firms for lost revenue and measures to prop up the financial system, but unemployment still rose sharply. Solid public finances provided room for further stimulus in 2021 to buttress the recovery.
The Survey recommends maintaining targeted support to people and firms until the pandemic subsides, then focusing on strengthening vocational training and skills and increasing investment in areas like high-speed internet and low-carbon transport. Addressing regional inequality, which is low but rising, should also be a priority as the recovery takes hold.
The Survey shows that Sweden has been among the most resilient OECD countries in the face of a historic shock. Yet, like other economies, it faces challenges from demographic changes and the shift to green, digital economies. Investments in education and training, and labour reforms along the lines negotiated by the social partners, will support job creation and strengthen economic resilience. Building on Sweden’s leadership in digital innovation and diffusion will also be key for driving productivity.
After a 3% contraction in 2020, interrupting several years of growth, the Survey projects a rebound in activity with 3.9% growth in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022 as industrial production resumes and exports recover. The recovery in world trade is bolstering the Swedish economy, however the country remains vulnerable to potential disruptions in global value chains.
|The pandemic has aggravated a mismatch in Sweden’s job market, with unfilled vacancies for highly qualified workers coinciding with high unemployment for low-skilled workers and immigrants. The public employment service needs strengthening to provide better support to jobseekers, including immigrants and women, and labour policies should strike the right balance between supporting businesses and workers and supporting transitions away from declining businesses towards growing sectors.|
A rising share of youths and older people in the population, especially in remote areas, is affecting the finances of local governments, which provide the bulk of welfare services. Strengthening local government budgets and ensuring equal welfare provision across the country will require providing tax income to poorer regions more efficiently and raising the economic growth potential across regions through investments in innovation. Improving coordination between government entities and reinforcing the role of universities in local economic networks would help achieve that aim.
Fewer women than men will regain work during COVID-19 recovery
Fewer women will regain jobs lost to the COVID-19 pandemic during the recovery period, than men, according to a new study released on Monday by the UN’s labour agency.
In Building Forward Fairer: Women’s rights to work and at work at the core of the COVID-19 recovery, the International Labour Organization (ILO) highlights that between 2019 and 2020, women’s employment declined by 4.2 per cent globally, representing 54 million jobs, while men suffered a three per cent decline, or 60 million jobs.
This means that there will be 13 million fewer women in employment this year compared to 2019, but the number of men in work will likely recover to levels seen two years ago.
This means that only 43 per cent of the world’s working-age women will be employed in 2021, compared to 69 per cent of their male counterparts.
The ILO paper suggests that women have seen disproportionate job and income losses because they are over-represented in the sectors hit hardest by lockdowns, such as accommodation, food services and manufacturing.
Not all regions have been affected in the same way. For example, the study revealed that women’s employment was hit hardest in the Americas, falling by more than nine per cent.
This was followed by the Arab States at just over four per cent, then Asia-Pacific at 3.8 per cent, Europe at 2.5 per cent and Central Asia at 1.9 per cent.
In Africa, men’s employment dropped by just 0.1 per cent between 2019 and 2020, while women’s employment decreased by 1.9 per cent.
Throughout the pandemic, women faired considerably better in countries that took measures to prevent them from losing their jobs and allowed them to get back into the workforce as early as possible.
In Chile and Colombia, for example, wage subsidies were applied to new hires, with higher subsidy rates for women.
And Colombia and Senegal were among those nations which created or strengthened support for women entrepreneurs.
Meanwhile, in Mexico and Kenya quotas were established to guarantee that women benefited from public employment programmes.
To address these imbalances, gender-responsive strategies must be at the core of recovery efforts, says the agency.
It is essential to invest in the care economy because the health, social work and education sectors are important job generators, especially for women, according to ILO.
Moreover, care leave policies and flexible working arrangements can also encourage a more even division of work at home between women and men.
The current gender gap can also be tackled by working towards universal access to comprehensive, adequate and sustainable social protection.
Promoting equal pay for work of equal value is also a potentially decisive and important step.
Domestic violence and work-related gender-based violence and harassment has worsened during the pandemic – further undermining women’s ability to be in the workforce – and the report highlights the need to eliminate the scourge immediately.
Promoting women’s participation in decision-making bodies, and more effective social dialogue, would also make a major difference, said ILO.
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