The world’s most massive seasonal migration begins. From 10th to 15th February 2020, as every year, millions of Chinese will move from one part of the country to the other to celebrate the Lunar New Year.
According to China State Railway Group, the public company that operates rail transport in the People’s Republic, over five weeks, about 440 million rail journeys will be made (8% more than in 2019) with an average of 11 million transfers per day.
To cope with the rising numbers, 5,275 extra train journeys per day will be made available, while for the first time, in some train stations, it will be possible to access with digital tickets and carry out checks with facial recognition.
In Guangzhou and Shenzhen fast ticketing will allow, through facial recognition, to deduct the ticket fare directly from the WeChat Pay account of a traveler once they arrive at their destination.
Hong Kong: one in five Adults suffer from Stress Disorder
The political crisis facing Hong Kong is rapidly compromising people’s mental health -this is revealed by a study published in the authoritative lancet scientific journal that in 2019 – coinciding with the onset of anti-extradition protests – a third of Hong-Kong inhabitants in adulthood – almost 2 million people – have shown signs of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), up from 5% five years ago.
The survey, conducted by the University of Hong Kong, reveals a close relationship between the mental state of citizens and the massive circulation of strong images through social networks.
According to the researchers, the discomfort highlighted by the population of the former British colony is comparable to “the state of mental health reported as a result of large-scale disasters, armed conflicts or terrorist attacks.”
Renewables: Greenpeace rejects Chinese Big High-tech Companies
Greenpeace has – for the first time ever – released a ranking of Chinese technology companies based on its commitment to the transition to renewables. Within two decades, cloud storage and data center services could account for one-third of global energy demand.
A sector that in China, in 2018, was powered by 73% of coal. But overall, the response of Chinese big tech discolours from what competitors in other countries have undertaken.
Among the 15 large companies considered by Greenpeace, only one – digital service provider Chindata – has committed to meet 100% of its energy needs through renewable sources, in line with what Apple and Google promised.
Among the companies that rely most on cloud computing, e-commerce giant Alibaba is the best performing in terms of transparency and emissions levels. But to date, 80% of the companies surveyed – with the exception of Tencent – have not made public data on electricity consumption or greenhouse gas emissions.
Huawei is the only company to have set pollutant reduction targets
Virus from the Strange Pneumonia Epidemics identified
Chinese researchers have finally identified the virus behind the strange cases of pneumonia reported in Wuhan since mid-December – it would be a corona virus, a family of viruses at the origin of diseases of various severity, from the common cold to Sars.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), this is a new corona virus “different from those previously discovered and more scientific research is needed for greater understanding.”
At the moment there is no evidence that the new virus is easily transmissible from man to man. Since last month, a total of 59 cases have been reported in the city of Wuhan, in 15 of which corona virus turned out to be the pathogen of the infection.
As in the case of Sars, the epidemic could have started from contact with wild animals since almost all the affected individuals worked in a fish market where wild species, such as pheasants and snakes, were also present.
No deaths have been reported so far, although seven people are in serious condition – 8 were discharged from the hospital with no more symptoms. During the 2003 Sars outbreak, nearly 800 people were killed.
Unlike then, this time the response of the Chinese authorities has won the acclaim of the World Health Organization.
Tmall, a Support of Gay Couples
Lunar New Year is one of the rare occasions when Chinese families gather under one roof. For many undeclared homosexuals, however, the party is a source of embarrassment and coincides with long interrogations about that heir who strangely never arrives.
Tmall, Alibaba’s retail site, decided to break with tradition by launching a video dedicated to the return home of gay and lesbian couples.
The clip, which captures the presentation of their mates to their parents, was made to attract purchases before the holiday.
It therefore has first and foremost commercial purposes. But the underlying message did not go unnoticed, winning the approval of much of the web.
According to a report released by Euromonitor, the economy driven by China’s LGBT community – which has more than 70 million individuals – was already worth 300 billion dollars a year in 2017.
Douyin, Beyond the Numbers
As many as 400 million daily active users – this is the goal reached by Douyin, the Chinese microvideo app known abroad as Tik Tok, which in 2019 has seen the number of its users increase by 90%.
According to its parent company ByteDance Ltd. on Sunday, the backward northeastern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang dominate the top five of the most active regions on the platform, although the top spot is ahead of Beijing.
As is often the case, online behavior also reveals interesting information about users’ lifestylehabits – In fact, the report confirms that while those born in the 1970s are more inclined to share food videos, the previous generation prefers group dances and anime and animals.
But Douyin, as they say, is not just pure garbage- the platform seems to have served to give visibility to 93% of the 1,372 articles classified as national intangible cultural heritage.
Europe 1914- East Asia 2020: Similarities and Differences
Many scholars argue that what is happening between the major powers in East Asia at the present time is what actually happened between the major powers in Europe in 1914, and there is a rising power in East Asia causes a threat to other states
Historically speaking when a rising power challenges a global power the war is inevitable and sometimes it’s a matter of time. The situation in East Asia is a little bit like the situation in Europe in 1914, at that time there was a rising power-seeking for the hegemony and challenges the other major powers, so the war between them was unavoidable. Comparing that with what is happening in East Asia, we will find that in East Asia there is a rising power, and this power became a challenge to the major powers not only in East Asia but also in the global arena.
From realism theory perspective, as we know that relists focus on the international system and states, they explain that the international system is an anarchic system and state is the most important actor in this anarchic world, so states have to preserve its security and interests against any power when a state becomes too much powerful that cause a threat to other major powers, and that might cause a war between the rising state and other states, and that is a conflict to balance against the powerful state.
Apply the realism theory on the First World War, the First World War was unavoidable and that because of the collapse of the balance of power in Europe and the rising of other powers such as Germany and its challenge to the major powers as Russia and Britain. According to the classical realists, they argue that major wars can happen when a state has superiority or an overbalance of power. Germany after the collapse of the Bismarck system started to increase its power and challenge the major power in central Europe, the rise of Germany caused a shift to the balance of power at that time.
The realists also argue that what is happening in East Asia is like what happened in Europe in 1914. The classical realists argue that the balance of power in a multi-polar system is most stable, while neo-realists as Waltz argues that the bipolarity is most solid and most stable, a world controlled by two states is better than a world dominated by four, five, or six powers, and that because in the multi-polarity the alliances could give up on each other’s any time, moreover, in the bipolarity states don’t want to depend on other states military power, but they can depend on their own powers. In East Asia there is a change in the equilibrium system, some the states become too much powerful, for instance, China, China now is a rising power in East Asia, we can clearly see the economic growth of china, and the military forces, and the rise of China might cause a threat to its neighbors in East Asia, frankly speaking not only in East Asia but also cause a threat to other global powers as the United States and its European allies, in this regard, the realists they emphasize that the shifting of power in East Asia might cause a conflict or a war among states because the system is an anarchic global system. But if we will compare China with other major powers in the global arena as the United States we will find that China still not that powerful to cause a threat to the U.S., maybe China has economic ties with East Asia countries, but they still not a good alliances, while the United States has its alliances in both continents Europe and East Asia, and that is a reason that proves that it is might hard to see a conflict or war in East Asia. But what about the border conflicts, China till nowadays has border conflict with other states such as India, last May Chinese and Indian soldiers fought against each other in the Ladakh region and some Indian Soldiers were killed, also the maritime conflicts between China and its neighbors, these conflicts might cause a conflict between rising China and its neighbors including Japan, Philippines in the near future, and this conflict the United States will take part in it in order to help its allies.
John Mearsheimer as an offensive neo-realist, in his debates about the rising of China he always argues that China won’t rise peacefully, and the rise of China will lead to a direct confrontation between China and the United States and that because states in the international politics always want to preserve and maintain their security, they only care about their security, and also want to be a hegemony, in this regard, the U.S. won’t let China take its place in international politics, and won’t let China control Asia or other regions, and they might go war against one another. The scholar Steven Walt explains the Balance-of- Threat and argues that equilibrium anti the threat caused by other states in the international arena, China is a big country, large population, economic growth also military growth all of these elements cause a threat to its neighbors in East Asia. East Asia is a very important region to the United States and its allies, former America president Obama mentioned that before and said: “the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region. The Asia Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority, and that’s creating jobs and opportunity for the American people.” From President Obama’s speech we can note how Asia is a very important region to the U.S. and its allies.
Although theories predict about a potential conflict between China and the U.S., one more thing to consider is the nuclear weapon, China and U.S. both have nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon plays a vital role in maintaining peace between them as what happened during the Cold War many scholars argue that what made the U.S. and the Soviet Union didn’t go to war was the presence of the nuclear weapon (nuclear weapon deterrence).
Unlike the realism theory that focuses on the international system and the structure of the system, and argues that the global system is anarchic, the state is the main actor in this anarchic system, and the state has to protect its own interests, thus, the state can go to war to preserve its interests and security. The liberalism theory focuses on the role of the institutions, organizations, etc., and how they can play a very vital role to maintain peace and stability in this anarchic world, liberalists interpret the role of the non-government organization in reducing the role of the state in the international politics in order to mitigate conflicts and wars among states. Moreover, liberalism focuses on peace and the means to achieve lasting peace among states in the global arena. For the liberal, economic integration plays a significant role to preserve peace, economic integration and interdependence make countries want to collaborate with each other, instead of fight against one another.
Liberalism explains the main reason for the outbreak of the First World War was the absence and lack of organizations and institutions at that time, and there no means to resolve the conflicts among countries. For Democratic Peace Theory, the war was most likely to occur and that because at that time not all the states were democratic states, and for that theory, the democratic states can fight and go to war against the non-democratic states, although Germany at that time started to be a democratic country, that didn’t help to prevent such a war, by contrast, helped Germany to enter in such a war and with the support of its people.
Apply the liberalism theory on East Asia we will find that East Asia countries in the twenty-first century are more independent, and they have economic ties with each other, and because of the economic interdependence between the countries in East Asia we will find that even they are rivals, but economic ties will play an important role to prevent a conflict or war between them. China as a rising power in East Asia its economy highly relies on its neighbors and other European countries such as the U.S., China after the reform and opening-up policy increased its economy. Although the rise of the volume trade exchange between China and its neighbors and China and the U.S., that didn’t prevent the tension between China and the U.S. as what happened between them because of the trade, the trade conflict between them that have started in 2018, the two countries have increased the tariffs, the United States increased the tariffs by approximately 25%, and China increased the tariffs to be 5% and 25%, this tension between the two counties has reduced the volume of trade between them, and some of the scholars explained that the trade conflict between the United States and China would have a great impact on the global trade.
The scholar Waltz argues that the economic integration and interdependence can’t prevent the conflict between the U.S. and China, go back to the First World War at that time there was economic ties between some of the European countries but that didn’t prevent the outbreak of the major war between the major powers, because the national security is more important than the economic. In Asia, there are some countries still non-democratic countries, to the democratic peace theory argues that the democratic states don’t go war and fight against each other, so they assert that U.S, Japan won’t fight, Japan and U.S. are allies, by contrast, China is a communist state that also might be a reason that leads to a conflict between China and U.S.
Constructivism theory doesn’t focus on the international system like realism theory, or the state and organizations like liberalism, Constructivism focuses on the ideas, values, and norms. Constructivist as Alex Wendt argues that global relations decided and fixed not by the nature of human beings but by the ideas, and how people share these ideas. Go back to the First World War, constructivism explains that states as Germany and other major powers had the same ideas at that time, the ideas were each country wanted to be powerful and expand its territory. They didn’t share the ideas with each other’s; instead they went to war against one another.
To conclude, what is happening in East Asia nowadays might be the same as what happened in Europe in 1914 and the rise of a major power in East Asia as the rise of China could cause a threat to major powers in Asia and Europe, but it does not mean that it will certainly lead to war. Anyway, in this unpredictable international arena, it is difficult to predict what will happen tomorrow and what changes the world will witness.
Beijing pushes Hong Kong towards a drastic fait accompli
Hong Kong’s liberal democracy faces an existential threat, more visible than any time in the past 23 years, as exemplified by the recent arrests of democratic activists. Beijing seems to be running out of patience and continues to push the city towards a fait accompli of ‘one country, one party, one system’, as in mainland China.
When Britain handed over Hong Kong to the People’s Republic of China after 156 years of rule in 1997, a novel principle of governance known as ‘One Country, Two Systems’ was agreed upon with a validity of 50 years. Today, it is no longer visible in Hong Kong in actual practice, while it still stands in principle.
The agreement was perceived as the basis on which the unique character of the city and its people, rooted in a Western political outlook different from the mainland’s communism-inspired political system, would be preserved for the next five decades, until 2047, after which that arrangement would expire, paving way for transitioning into complete Chinese control.
The arrangement requires another 27 years for its expiry. Notwithstanding this fact, the Communist Party-controlled Beijing seems to be losing patience and not willing to wait for another three decades to legitimately take control of the city.
Today, Beijing is pushing and coercing Hong Kong towards a fait accompli of ‘one country, one party, one system’. This is proved by its tactical and suppressive moves in the recent past.
Protests continue, so do crackdown on dissent
Recent tensions and public unrest in the city have been simmering for the past 18 months, beginning with an extradition law imposed by Beijing in June 2019 targeted at suppressing sedition and rebellion on the citizens of Hong Kong, which allowed handover of convicts from the city to mainland China, triggering public unrest. Mounting protests finally led to the withdrawal of the bill in October.
Before 2019, there were nonviolent protests in the banners of Occupy Central Movement and the Umbrella Movement, both in 2014, demanding transparency in elections and preserving time-held electoral procedures which the Chinese Communist Party attempted to dilute, triggering protests. These were led by students and the youth numbering in tens of thousands, if not millions.
Coming to 2020, the move that triggered protests was a national security law imposed by Beijing on the city in the midnight prior to the anniversary of Hong Kong’s handover on July 1. It was aimed at disqualifying legislators in the name of offences such as supporting Hong Kong’s independence, refusing to acknowledge China’s sovereignty, supporting foreign forces to interfere in the city’s affairs, or in any other ways threaten national security.
The new law also allowed Beijing to open an intelligence office in the city soon after, to monitor whether the behaviour of Hong Kong citizens is in line with its expectations, effectively formalizing and legalizing crackdown on dissent. Any act of disrespecting national symbols including Chinese national anthem was also penalised.
Sidelining the Opposition
In another move, earlier this year, a resolution passed by the Chinese legislature allowed the Beijing-backed city government to directly dismiss elected members of the Hong Kong Legislative Council or LegCo without taking the judicial route. This triggered mass resignations by lawmakers as an expression of protest, and effectively leaving the 70-member LegCo with no functioning Opposition. This has further strengthened Beijing’s will to intensify crackdown on anyone opposing its objectives.
With the Opposition tactically removed and a pro-Beijing Chief Executive, Carrie Lam, at helm, Beijing expedited its witch-hunt on Hong Kong’s prominent and outspoken democratic activists and Opposition leaders, including Joshua Wong, Agnes Chow, and Ivan Lam, jailing them for taking part in protests, last year. Most recently, a Hong Kong media tycoon running an anti-government tabloid, Jimmy Lai, was arrested in a fraud case and was denied bail.
Following the passing of the new national security law, Britain formally suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, that had been in place for 30 years, for an indefinite period, fearing the possibility that anyone extradited to Hong Kong from the UK might be sent to China to face trials.
Citing China’s open disregard for bilateral agreements, London even promised an alternative route for British citizenship to any Hongkonger holding a British National Overseas passport, inviting a strongly-worded response from Beijing.
Britain, US, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, collectively known as the Five Eyes, have also criticized Beijing’s ploy to destroy democratically-elected LegCo, last month. They called the Chinese move a clear breach of its international obligations under the legally-binding and UN-approved Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 that paved the way for the territory’s handover in 1997.
Most recently, the British foreign secretary said London is considering a review of the arrangement for appointment of British judges for Hong Kong’s top court, absence of which could act as a severe blow to the city’s judicial reputation. To this, Beijing responded by saying that Britain had no supervisory power or moral responsibility over Hong Kong’s affairs.
The United States responded by sanctioning members of China’s ruling party and by making visa rules stricter for them to enter the US, yet another factor contributing to the retaliatory rants of a new brand of Chinese ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomats.
Disappearing thin line
Deprived of their natural and democratic rights, the sorry plight of the people of Hong Kong remains unchanged for many years now, and the Chinese power and influence continues to expand to newer horizons beyond its neighbourhood and across the globe. As each day passes, the thin line between mainland China and Hong Kong is disappearing, faster than expected.
The complex puzzle of Canberra-Beijing ties, as diplomacy takes a back seat
Australia and China seems to be engaged in a repulsive tariff war targeting each other’s goods. Canberra is struggling to manage its complex economic relationship with Beijing even as it finds itself in the strategically opposite camp. How did things turn out this way? Here, I analyse.
There was a time when Australia under the Mandarin-speaking Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, who was in office from 2007 to 2013, had the highest level of warmth in relations with China.
The Labour premier saw a promising prospect of economic partnership with a rising China at that point of time, but gravely under-estimated the geopolitical threat that would be soon posed by Beijing, a mistake later governments would realise and is still striving to rectify.
Quad pullout and comeback
Rudd even pulled Australia out of the four-nation Quad grouping in 2008, a year after it was conceived by former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, in a move to appease Beijing with which Canberra’s economic partnership was progressively moving upwards. But, nine years later, Malcolm Turnbull’s premiership brought Canberra back to the Quad as regional and global security dynamics witnessed a paradigm shift.
A decade later since Rudd took office, despite closer economic ties with Beijing, Canberra pushed for a closer alliance with the United States since 2017, the year Quad Security Dialogue was revived during the ASEAN and Related Summits in Manila.
It was a result of changes in security assessments by Canberra with regard to new threats and challenges from an increasingly assertive Beijing in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
The rift between Australia and China further widened, earlier this year, when the Australian government supported an inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus, annoying China where it originated. Australian politicians also became increasingly divided on hawkish and dovish lines.
Huawei and ZTE ban
Tides were turned in 2018 when Australia became the first country in the world to ban Chinese telecom giants Huawei and ZTE from 5G trials and rollout, citing security concerns, as these companies ‘allegedly’ had links to the Chinese ruling establishment which they deny.
Beijing also reciprocated with tit-for-tat measures from time to time. The latest in line of such measures was the imposition of temporary anti-dumping tariffs up to 212.1 per cent on Australian wine imports with effect from November 28, this year.
Ongoing tariff tensions
2020 saw a foray of imposition of tariffs and reciprocal duties from both sides right from the beginning of the pandemic. Attempted mergers and acquisitions by Chinese companies involving companies in Australia were also blocked by Canberra citing security reasons.
Adding oil to the fire, anti-dumping investigations were initiated by both sides against each other, for using its findings as rationale for imposing more tariffs on different sets of goods such as aluminum, steel, paper, coal, copper, sugar, log timber, and barley.
What will be the fate of the 2015-signed China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA)?
The worsening ties might take a toll on ChAFTA as it readies for a five-year review next month, notwithstanding the other broad-based trade pacts in which both countries are participants such as the recently-signed, 15-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
ChAFTA took about a decade to complete and led to zero tariffs on many goods, but RCEP is still in its infancy.The main issue is not whether a review of ChAFTA is possible, but how to prevent the looming prospect of Canberra and Beijing retreating from the current commitments directly or indirectly that would effectively reduce the pact into a state of coma.
As ChAFTA goes for review in December, the most likely outcome could be both countries agreeing to maintain the deal’s status quo. If any of the parties wishes to terminate the pact, there is a six-month notice period after which they can leave, with or without a review.
Still economic partners, but political rivals
Today, China has positioned itself as Australia’s largest trading partner. Moreover, Australia strongly benefits from its close proximity to the vast markets of China and Japan which together represent over 40% of all Australian exports, in which a little over 32% amounting to $89.2 billion, are exclusively to China, as data from 2019 show. Despite this, Canberra and Beijing remain at odds politically.
Exercise Malabar 2020 and beyond
One of the striking questions in the strategic circles of all Quad partner countries is, will Australia continue to take part in the annual Exercise Malabar in the coming years, annoying Beijing further?
While Japan is a strategic partner in the Quad, ties with China are moving on an adversarial path, particularly worsening since Canberra took part in the annual Exercise Malabar in the Indian Ocean this month, after a gap of 13 years since it left the mega naval war games.
The exercise by the four Quad partners of India, United States, Japan, and Australia is apparently a warning to Beijing’s naval ambitions in the waters of the Indo-Pacific.
Supply Chain Resilience Initiative
In fact, all the Quad partners and other democracies in the Indo-Pacific wish to decouple itself from over trade dependency on China. But, domestic economic realities prove otherwise. With a raging pandemic and the unravelling US-China cold war threatening supply chains, Japan has recently put forward an idea – the Supply Chain Resilience Initiative or SCRI.
It is a trilateral approach to trade, with India, Australia, and Japan as the key-partners aimed at diversifying its supply risk across a group of supplying nations instead of being disproportionately dependent on just one, apparently keeping China in mind.
Despite all these measures, the prospect of closing of huge Chinese markets for Australian exports, owing to a disproportionately high level of tariffs is haunting domestic producers in Australia that could potentially make Australian wine largely unmarketable and non-feasible in Chinese markets.
Ineffective diplomatic efforts
Current Australian PM Scott Morrison has been trying to bridge gaps in a reconciliatory tone by stating that his government’s actions are wrongly seen and interpreted by some only through the lens of the strategic competition between China and the US. But, Beijing doesn’t seem satisfied, as evident in the decision to impose the recent set of disproportionate tariffs on wine.
Loss of businesses for Australian domestic producers is already hurting the Australian economy badly as goods remain stalled at ports. But, the behemoth of Chinese economy appears to be largely resilient to adverse impacts, compared to the Australian economy.
Australia’s producers and farmers are largely unhappy and unsatisfied with the way Canberra is dealing with Beijing as it directly threatens their livelihoods.
As things turn out worse, Canberra will have to strategise newer options to effectively balance geostrategic and economic considerations with regard to Beijing, possibly through the diplomatic route, in a way to immediately diffuse the prevalent confrontational approach to come out of this diplomatic impasse.
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