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All is well: Alice Wells is visiting Pakistan soon

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United States Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Alice Wells will visit Pakistan from January 19 to January 22. She is on her routine visit to the region, where she will also visit Sri Lanka and India, before coming to Pakistan.

Under the emerging geopolitical scenario in this region, her visit carries a lot of importance at a crucial moment. Overall a shift in the US policy toward this region is witnessed. Last week, she has announced the resumption of a training program for Pakistan’s military officials. It will definitely strengthen military to military cooperation on shared priorities & advance US national security. Earlier, she announced that 15 high-level business delegations are scheduled to visit Pakistan during 2020, and expected to invest generously. These all are positive developments and Pakistan welcomes warmly.

The US is one of the countries, who early recognized Pakistan after getting independence from British rule in 1947. The relations between the US and Pakistan are covering almost 7 decades. Where Pakistan was a very close ally in the cold war era and non-NATO ally on the war on terror. The History of US-Pakistan relations is full of fluctuations. We enjoyed excellent relations as well as faced the worst sanctions too.

In fact, the US believes this friendship as transactional relations, as long as they need Pakistan, they care well, as soon as there is no urgent common interest, the US turns its face immediately. This is very much true in international relations that it is the interests which make friends or foes, but in Pakistani culture and traditions, friendship is much more than this. A friend in need is a friend indeed. Pakistan believes in long-lasting friendship and much more beyond the common interests. I believe the American needs to translate “Friendship” in the understanding of Pakistani cultural and traditional background.

In the past, the US has done a lot good for Pakistan, but the impact was limited to the ruling elite or a few persons only. The impact was not trickled down to the common man. Of course, we should not blame the US for corruption and greed in our society. If someone was obliged in the past, and if someone has served the American interest more than the national interest of Pakistan, the US may not be blamed at all. But hope, there must be a realization in the American policymakers and this time, they might consider Pakistan’s national interests and the common man in this society and may gain public support in this society too.

As long as there was close cooperation between Pakistan and the US, Pakistan was sincerely protecting the American interests as a result, the US achieved its strategic goals in this region. Since last few years, the US has completely written-off Pakistan and canceled almost all existing cooperation, as a result, there was no sincere friend of America in this region to look after their interest’s and as a result, the US failed to achieve its strategic goals in this part of the world.

Pakistan is a comparatively small country, and with the economic crisis, but due to its geostrategic location, it is a pivotal state and can play a decisive role in geopolitics. There exists a strong recognition of Pakistan’s potential in the American power circles, especially the military leadership.

The US developed its strategic relations with India and signed the “Major Defense Partner” agreement, helped India generously. The US assistance in S&T, transfer of technology, especially high tech, and advanced technologies, sophisticated advance weapon varies, nuclear civil deal, American support for India to UNSC permanent membership and NSG, etc., are the areas of an obvious tilt toward India.

Pakistan has no worry about US-India and US-Israel bilateral relations, but would not like these relations are to harm Pakistan. There was sufficient evidence during the February 2019 Pakistan-India limited conflict. In spite of President Trump’s offer for mediation between India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue, no progress on ground favors India. American silence over human rights violations in India and racist discriminatory Citizenship law passed in India, targeting Muslims, all are beyond our understanding.

Pakistan is a well mature and very responsible nation. Pakistan has no objection if US-India and US-Israel relations grow bilaterally only, without harming Pakistan. Pakistan warmly welcomes the resumption of traditional friendship between the US and Pakistan, while keeping our strategic interests with China and Russia intact.

It is believed that the Intellectual community and think tanks may advise the policy makers and decision makers in the US to take positive measures to restore out relationships based on trust, sincerity, on long term basis. We have high expectation from Alice Wells’ visit and hope all is well.

Prof. Engr. Zamir Ahmed Awan, Sinologist (ex-Diplomat), Non-Resident Fellow of CCG (Center for China and Globalization), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

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South Asia

International Peacekeeping Day: Pakistan’s Case

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Image credit: UN/Haidar Fahs

29th May marks the 75th anniversary of International Peacekeeping Day. In conflict studies, Peacekeeping as term defines those activities and actions that tend to keep conflict and conflicting parties under control and involve such activities that serve as pathway to uproot conflict as a whole and reduce battlefield deaths. UNN Peacekeeping Missions recently have undergone several reforms and evolution to better their efficacy, coherence, and responsiveness for which they have been criticized for. While effectiveness of the very purpose of these missions is highly debated, May 29 calls for commemorating and honoring the services of all those countries and people coming together with a vision to ensure peace, stability, and sustainability across the world. Pakistan is no exception.

The image of Pakistan has, in the international politics has highly revolved around security and strategic realms. Considering that image, Peacekeeping Missions are just one of the many features where Pakistan has carved out its identity as a state that is committed to the security of not only its own but the entire world. Since its fist Peacekeeping Mission in Congo in 1960, Pakistani blue helmets have served with honor and valor in 48 United Nations missions in almost all continents of the world.

While endorsing Action for Peace (A4P) and Action for Peace Plus (A4P+) initiatives-that tend to improve efficacy and consolidate security of Peacekeeping Missions-Pakistan, being one of the few states, institutionalized peacekeeping by such structural initiatives as that of Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS). To date CIPS has run 175 courses, training 2853 Peacekeepers, including 407 officers from other states. In this way, CIPS stands as an embodiment to Pakistan’s efforts of consolidating regionalism and Internationalism and standing as a responsible and capable state thinking for all and common peace and prosperity.

Besides working towards peace and security in war-torn communities, Pakistan has been on the forefront of peacebuilding and humanitarian efforts. Pakistan’s Field Hospital established as part of UN Mission Mali, is providing premium healthcare services, including lifesaving surgeries to the dependent clientele of 3500 UN Peacekeepers besides facilitating affected civilians of the warn-ravaged region. In April 2023, services of Pakistan’s hospital were appreciated at various levels in mission as well as UN headquarters for its constant quest for excellence and being in line with the needs of mission dynamics.

Through professionalism and dedication, Pakistani Peacekeepers have remained pivotal in UN’s efforts to reform and strengthen the Peacekeeping Architecture. Pakistani Engineers are maintaining 1430 kms of main Communication Arteries connecting 45% of the total land territory in the Central African Republic (CAR) and providing assured connectivity to 60% of the population of CAR even during worst climatic conditions.

Pakistan has exercised resolve and manifested resilience and courage in working in some of the most dangerous war-ravaged regions of the world. Not only it has paved the way in ensuring peace and preventing full-fledged war in such regions but its commitments towards humanitarian appeal are no hidden reality. From 2022 South Sudan floods whereby Pakistani engineers constructed for them dyke system to provision of 60 metric tons of various stores in northern part of Abyei to Pakistani doctors and Engagement Teams running awareness and hygiene campaigns to psychological counselling to contributing in education field in various missions, Pakistan has proved resolve and promptness of its security architecture in the region and beyond.

Pakistan also hosts one of the oldest UN Peacekeeping Mission i.e., UN Mission Observer Group for India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) to monitor the ceasefire violations on Line of Control and has committed to it unlike the other stakeholder in the domain.

This day, hence, is a time to commemorate the services of Pakistan’s 225, 000 peacekeepers who have served uptil now, as well as honor the martyrdom of 171 Pakistani peacekeepers in the process.

29 May, on one end, is reminisce of Pakistan’s advancing role in UN’s agenda of maintaining peace and security around the world and on the other, it is a contemplating point at the structural amendments still needed in the peacekeeping apparatus of the world so that peace and prosperity is ensured for all nations and people of the world, once and for all.

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Striving for Balance: Pakistan’s Climate Equity Drive

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A flooded village in Matiari, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. © UNICEF/Asad Zaidi

The world’s population of 1.8 billion people between the ages of 10 and 24 represents the largest group of young people ever recorded in human history. A startling portion of this startling total—710 million children—live in nations that are horribly situated to bear the brunt of the catastrophic effects of the climate crisis. Every newborn child in the modern era faces numerous dangers as a result of the extensive effects of climate change, including dangers to their health and the stability of the economy. Even though they bear the least blame for the current environmental crisis, young people must now deal with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather phenomena.

Since many families, especially those living in developing countries, have been severely impacted by the rising temperatures, there has been a rise in cases of malnutrition and a decrease in food supplies as well as access to safe drinking water. The immune and respiratory systems of the human body have been severely compromised by the rapid decline in air quality, which has resulted in widespread damage and distress.

Therefore, the need for a fundamental paradigm shift within the framework of global climate change governance necessitates a firm embrace of the resounding cry for climate justice at its very core. To effectively reduce their greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), strengthen their resilience against the numerous effects of climate change, and, most importantly, deal with the enormous losses incurred as a result of the more frequent and intense occurrences of droughts and floods brought on by the irreversible progression of climate change, developing countries and economies in particular stand in dire need of significant financial assistance.

Regardless, nearly 13,000 people have been injured and over 1,600 have died as a result of the recent catastrophic floods in Pakistan, which have devastated about one-third of the country since the disaster began on June 14, 2022. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the precipitation in July 2022 showed a strikingly disproportionate increase in Balochistan, rising by a staggering 450 percent, and in Sindh, rising by a remarkable 307 percent. These levels represent the highest levels seen in the previous 62 years. These areas, which have been severely impacted, are frequently arid or semi-arid.

Moreover, the findings of the World Weather Attribution Report (WWA) confirm that climate change has been a significant factor in the escalation of this unprecedented flooding, which has resulted in an incredible estimated economic loss of about US$32 billion. Therefore, it is necessary for the international community to pay attention to the call for climate justice and to show unwavering support for those countries coping with the numerous difficulties brought on by climate change.

However, the pressures brought on by climate change are putting Pakistan under a lot of stress right now, making it more susceptible to future changes in the climate and limiting its ability to adapt. The responsibility of wealthy states as outlined in Article 8 of the Paris Agreement must be emphasized, and Pakistan must emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. This particular article requires developed countries to contribute financial resources to support developing countries’ efforts at adaptation. Pakistan can effectively advocate for more funding and resources to strengthen its resilience to the effects of climate change by using this platform, while also highlighting the necessity of global cooperation and shared responsibility.

Shortly put, Pakistan’s participation in COP27 offers a significant platform to address the intertwined issues of climate change and sustainable development. Pakistan can highlight its distinct vulnerabilities and the need for increased support from more developed nations through a well-reasoned argument focused on climate adaptation, industry decarbonization, water management, food security, and resource conservation. These initiatives are essential for directing the country toward a trajectory of all-encompassing growth, the eradication of poverty, and ecological equilibrium in the face of a changing climate.

An important turning point for Pakistan was taking control of the COP27 agenda, which strengthened its position as a leader in the international discussion of climate change. Pakistani officials vehemently argued that developing countries should intensify their efforts to advance the cause of climate justice. They emphasized the dire need to deal with climate-related problems with unwavering resolve and the dangerous repercussions of doing nothing, warning that the nation would continue to bear the brunt of climate change’s negative effects. Pakistan’s persistent and thorough approach to addressing climate change unquestionably qualifies as a good foreign policy.

Concludingly, in order to fully address this complex problem, Pakistan must adopt a holistic approach that takes into account all aspects of climate change, from minute details to complex global issues. Additionally, it must work to embrace the positive aspect of climate security, which states that when problems are securitized, they become security conundrums. Through a three-tiered framework that includes local, global, and structural dimensions, policymakers can perceptively examine Pakistan’s environmental quandaries by using securitization as a lens.

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Political Crisis, Power Distribution and Taliban in Pakistan

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The political crisis in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan tends to evolve. Elite groups in the government and the opposition will be unable to find proper means to resolve the issue. The economic crisis and financial problems will also prevent Islamabad from stabilizing the political situation in the country. In addition, interethnic contradictions between Punjabis and Pashtuns are actively developing in the country, which tends to escalate. The Taliban’s power in neighboring Afghanistan does not contribute to solving the political crisis in Pakistan but contributes to its deterioration. This was stated in a note to Modern Diplomacy by political scientist Georgi Asatryan.

The political scientist also noted that the Pakistan army would give former prime-minister Imran Khan no chance to regain his political standing. “The opposition and political circles close to Khan will attempt to perform protest activity in the country. There will be continued nationwide unrest. The traditional control of the Pakistani military and the ISI over political processes will be raised, and human rights, democratic processes, and freedoms will, unfortunately, be limited. Overall, Pakistan will remain a center of instability in the region”, Georgi Asatryan noted. The political scientist added that the Pashtuns in Pakistan, representing the second largest ethnic group, see Imran Khan as their man and will support him. The same goes for the Taliban in Afghanistan, whose sympathies are also on the side of the Pakistani opposition leader.  

Georgi Asatryan does not rule out the possibility of a new military coup but estimates its possibility in the short-term as unlikely. When a country’s institutions become ineffective, anyone can suspect a situation developing a coup d’etat. This was apparent during the spring protests led by Imran Khan, where Khan’s supporters fought with paramilitary police.

It is also worth citing that the country’s economic situation is complicated and can be described as a full-fledged economic and financial crisis. According to the data, Pakistan has a debt of $ 125 billion, and 25% of this amount is owed to China. The rapid growth of inflation – 36.4% in April, demonstrates the difficult economic circumstances of Pakistan. This indicator is noted as the highest in the last sixty years. Concerning the country’s foreign reserves, Pakistan has only 4.3 billion dollars, which is enough to cover imports for a month. In order to temporarily mitigate the financial situation of the state, Saudi Arabia extended the term of the deposit in foreign currency for $ 3 billion deposited as a loan in 2021. Also, China extended a $2 billion loan to Pakistan at the end of March. Islamabad’s external debt has been plunged by more than $10 billion. This reduced the current account deficit from July 2022 to April 2023 to $3.3 billion, significantly lower than $ 13.6 billion for the same period 2021-2022. This indicator decrease is due to a reduction in imports to $ 47 billion from July 2022 to April 2023 compared to the previous period – $ 65.5 billion.

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