The US airstrike in Iraq has further fueled the already bloody race of having regional influence between the US and Iran. The Middle East has been hub of resources and encompasses crucial Sea Lines of Communications(SLOCs) i.e. Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. These two SLOCs have been main trade routes for regional and extra-regional states for oil transportation. The region is significant so that’s why it has always been in conflict-prone situation. Interstate and intrastate actors have been involved. The wave of Arab Spring and emergence of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have already put region in chaos. Now US killing of prominent Iranian leader (Soleimani) of Quds force in Iraqmay takes region to the verge of war. In 2018, Trump declared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force as a terrorist force. Trump has justified killing by saying that “ Soleimani was a terrorist and that assassinating him was a defensive action that stopped an imminent attack”. Now Iran is also following for tit for tat mechanism by declaring all US forces as terrorists and Iran did missile attack on US military bases held in Iraq and justified this attack in the same as the US did.
Trump acted unilaterally ,in which will of Iraq and world community were not included and this is true depiction of its imperial arrogance as Middle eastern region has been in warlike situation and this incidence may escalate the situation. There are chance of war as Iran unfurl red flag on mosque Jamkaran in first time in history and in Shiite religion red flag symbolizes vengeance. Gen Qasim Soleimani was close to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who on Friday issued a statement calling for “three days of public mourning and forceful revenge, in a declaration that amounted to a threat of retaliation against the United States andhis departure to God does not end his path or his mission”.
Iran has made retaliation in response to Soleimani killing with missile attack on US bases; Al asad and Erbiland opted same time at which US attacked on Iranian general. In counter response to Iranian attack US put strict economic sanctions on Iran and also reiterated that NATO should strengthen its position in Middle east. While on the other hand, Trump said that US does not want war but peace. This is true illustration ‘Carrot and stick’ diplomacy. The Soleimani’successor Major General Ismail Qaani has given statement yesterday that “We promise to continue Martyr Soleimani’s path with the same strength and his martyrdom will be reciprocated in several steps by removing the US from the region”. After attack supreme leader of Iran said that this attack is slap on US face and it is not enough that US did. Moreover Iranian foreign minister , Javad Zarif also said that “we will defend our own territory, we will defend our people,” Zarif told CNN’s Fred Pleitgen. “The United States can defend the United States, but the United States cannot claim to be defending the United States several thousand miles away.” This is how Iran can retaliate and zaarif’s statement depicts that Iran wants to wipe out US from the region. US is extra regional states , whereas Iran is regional state and has allies and proxies in the countries.
“We have people on our side in this region,” Zarif said. “Beautiful military equipment doesn’t rule the world, people rule the world. President Trump has to wake up to the reality that the people of this region are enraged, the people of this region want the United States out.”
The statements from the Iranian personnel are true depiction that this airstrike it is possibility of full fledge war. Because the US has also military presence in the region i.e. Thousands of US troops have been deployed to Saudi Arabia, and there are some 5,000 at bases in Iraq. The US also has a chief air base in Qatar and a naval occurrence in Bahrain not only this also has troops in United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Jordan. Tehran said that she is not in urgency and they will choose target wisely and will respond with decisive deterrent effect. Trump reiterated that “If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way…and without hesitation”. Iran responded to it as , it was US, who started war now get ready to face the music. Iran has deployed it ballistic missiles( short and medium range) on ready mode and US bases in region are also vulnerable to threat but US also exercising its satellite for surveillance.
The US has been an established World Power so its US responsibility to not to escalate tensions as Great powers always have to choose the path; soft power or hard power. In the present situation diplomacy is best solution to de-escalate the crisis. After Iranian attack Trump mentioned in his speech that US wants peace but on the other hand also stress NATO to strengthen its position in Middle east and put sanctions on Iran. So still danger is there between Iran and US as Iran also has missiles and proxies that can hit America. On the other hand , US has been an unrivaled power and its alliances from Israel to Europe may damage Iran. US war with Iran, whether it be asymmetric or proxy, will be horrible.
Hence the region has been hub to regional and extra-regional powers and in any sort of conflict. State, non state actors, regional and extra-regional states may also engage which can in turn lead towards full fledged war. Moreover in the fighting of two, third part can take advantage of the situation i.e. ISIS in the Middle east can strengthen its roots in the region while US and Iran are busy in confrontation with one another. The world community should and will have to come with solutions to avoid inadvertent escalation between US and Iran and standoff between the two states may bring the region on the verge of war and in which no one will get anything but destruction.
