The World in 2020

Morgan Stanley now admits it, in the next 30 years, there is going to be a historical wealth transfer ($30 trillion) that the world has ever seen. The millennials will not only inherit the greatest share of global capital; the greatest entrepreneurial investment is next in line. The year 2020 will set the tone for exciting leaps; Apple’s long awaited AR glasses and the incorporation of 3D rear screens in its newest iPhone model with 5G will test new preferences. Wine producers will testify the effects of climate change; 2020 marks the beginning of stronger alcohol levels, thanks to increasing temperatures in locations with potent wineries. Local elections in the United Kingdom will finally seal its European fate while governments around the world will battle to lend more money without realistic market returns. Unlike prior years, 2020 marks the beginning of a structural turmoil, destined for an eventual long-term order.

Prediction 1

Netflix rode the jump in the past years, but in 2020, it will face extreme competition from rivals that have dug themselves into the industry; Disney’s second coming Disney++ is going to challenge the paid streaming business with loads of experience on their side. Only in 2015, it was reported that ESPN and Disney had both lost viewership to Netflix’s services, which marked the beginning of accessible content at user’s discretion. Matters deteriorated, in so much that Disney started lending streaming rights for pure profit reasons. The move was dubbed as the only rational and shrewd decision on Disney’s part. For online consumers, Disney’s entry will reduce prices and improve choices. Suddenly, Netflix is going to be on the chase. There will be no surprises for a sensational change in leader boards. One might want to wait before subscribing to Netflix in early 2020. There are going to be other choices too; Apple TV+, HBO’s Max and Comcast’s Peacock are all entering the race.

Prediction 2

Donald Trump will win the re-election. China will slow down its BRI agendas. Japan will lose more than it will earn from the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The American president is almost certain to win the re-election; partly because of his perceived trade resurrection and largely because of the growing risk of economic stimulus. Trump has made huge promises of middle class tax cuts; luckily, for the president, fiscal markets are behaving according to his whims. Political impeachment will stagnate with time; as testimony against him looks very unlikely. For a cause, US-China trade war will increase his election ratings. Purely, in money terms, the United States of America cannot afford an alternative president. China, on the other hand has taken more on its sleeve than it can handle. 2019 was a busy year for the Chinese president; long-term BRI vision was emphatically sold to many governments. Chinese lending is on a record high and while infrastructure projects are gathering steam, the economy is fast facing a burnout. The central government has announced more than $280 billion in tax cuts, aimed towards boosting provincial development. After Rio 2016, Tokyo is set to missearnings from the summer Olympics. Latest reports suggest that it could cost additional $25 billion for Japan in the global event; a figure too high to yield any kind of profit from total investment.

Prediction 3

The proposed West African common currency “Eco” will not come into action. More than 28 million AIDS patient will have received sustained antiretroviral therapy. England will win the European Football Championships. Common currency criteria for the participating nations are such that more than half would not meet simple goals. A single digit inflation and a fiscal deficit of not more than 4% of the GDP would be the biggest ask for participating nations. Historically, the plan has never worked. Although the idea emerged in 2003, defaults will once again put the currency talks to bed. Global action to curb the AIDS epidemic will just miss the 2020 deadline. It was estimated that all the 38 million patients would have been treated by the end of next year. Nevertheless, United Nations is confident that the virus would come under complete control by 2030 and would cease to be a public health threat. Betting companies are rallying for an English triumph at next year’s European Football Championships. Historically, England have always been pipped before others in many international sports event; however, for the first time, data analytics have claimed that more people are confident on England’s win.

The 20th year of the third millennium and the 20th year of the 21stcentury will also be a leap year.

Sisir Devkota
Sisir Devkota
Global Affairs Analyst based in Kathmandu, Nepal. Founder, Trainer & Researcher at "The Protocol" which facilitates analytical research on current affairs and workshops on Diplomacy and Leadership. Masters of Social Science in Democracy & Global Transformations from the University of Helsinki, Finland. Author for a book chapter titled as "Armed Conflicts in South Asia 2013".