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Questionable assumptions of India’s citizenship amendment

Amjed Jaaved

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The whole superstructure of Indian government’s citizenship amendment bill, now enacted, is erected on claim that religious minorities have been brutally persecuted and still face discrimination in Pakistan since 1947 and also in Bangladesh, and Afghanistan. The persecution hypothesis is based on faulty statistics. India’s Union Home Minister Amit Shah claimed non-Muslims comprised 23 per cent of Pakistan’s population at the time of independence. By 2011, their proportion dropped to 3.7 per cent. Concerning Bangladesh, he claimed that Muslims comprised 22 per cent of population and their proportion in 2011 fell to 7.8 per cent in 1947. He insisted Pakistan and Bangladesh have witnessed a decline of up to 20 percentage points in their populations of religious minorities. But how true are his figures?

Adulterated figures: The BJP used the 23 per cent figure of non-Muslims in Bangladesh (erstwhile East Pakistan) in 1951 and compared it with the 3.7 per cent figure of non-Muslims in Pakistan in 1998. This adulteration of figures led to fallacy that population  share of non-Muslims fell from 23 per cent to 3.7 per cent in Pakistan.

Myth of religious persecution: Not only non-Muslims but also Muslims migrated from Bangladesh to India. Better economic opportunities in India was the dominant lure for both non-Muslims and Muslims alike.  

BJP quoted no source: India’s home minister did not quote source of his data. He probably picked up the figure from Farahnaz Ispahani’s  article titled ‘Cleansing Pakistan of Minorities’ published by the Hudson Institute in 2013. She also did not quote source of her data. Naz is Hussein Haqqani’s wife. Be it noted please that she is married to Husain Haqqani, a senior fellow and director for South and Central Asia at Hudson Institute. After resigning as Pakistan’s ambassador to the USA, Haqqani kept participating in functions that portray Pakistan in poor light. A judicial commission’s report (Memo Gate) alleged that he was not loyal to Pakistan.

Past Censuses: The only credible information emanates from 1951 Census to rely on. In West Pakistan, the non-Muslim population was just 3.44 per cent, while it was 23.20 per cent in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). As per 1951Census, share of Muslims in Pakistan’s overall population was 85.80 per cent, while that of non-Muslims was 14.20 per cent.

In 1951, Muslims comprised 96.56 per cent of the total population in the territory that is today known as Pakistan. The next census in Pakistan was carried out in 1961 which indicated the non-Muslim population in West Pakistan had fallen to 2.83 per cent of West Pakistan’s total population.

By 1972 when Pakistan carried out its third census, East Pakistan had been liberated and was now known as Bangladesh. The 1972 census shows non-Muslims in Pakistan comprised 3.25 per cent of the total population. This was higher than their share in 1961.By the time the next census was done in 1981; Pakistan’s non-Muslim population registered a small rise from 3.25 per cent in 1972 to 3.30 per cent in 1981.  After 1981Census, Pakistan did not carry out a fresh census for more than 15 years and the next census was carried out in 1998.As per this census, Pakistan’s non-Muslim population stood at 3.70 per cent of the total population in 1998. Pakistan carried out a fresh census in 2017 but its religious tables have not been published.

Inferences from West-Pakistan Census data: 1. Proportion of non-Muslims was never 23 per cent of Pakistan’s total population. 2. Non-Muslim population in undivided Pakistan was14.2 per cent in 1951.  3. Non-Muslims accounted for 3.44 per cent of the population in West Pakistan. 4. Census data show that share of non-Muslims in Pakistan remained 3.5 per cent over the decades. 5. No appreciable migration due to persecution.

Inferences from East-Pakistan (now Bangladesh) Census data:

Non-Muslims formed 23.20 per cent of erstwhile East Pakistan’s total population in 1951.

Share of non-Muslims in East Pakistan fell by 1961 to 19.57 per cent, then to 14.60 per cent in 1974, to 13.40 per cent in 1981, to 11.70 per cent in 1991 and 10.40 per cent in 2001.

Bangladesh’s latest census carried out in 2011 reflected that the share of non-Muslims went below 10 per cent of the country’s overall population. In 2011, non-Muslims constituted 9.60 per cent of Bangladesh’s population. Thus, during 1951 to 2011, population of non-Muslims lowered from a high of 23.20 per cent to a low 9.40 per cent.

Data refutes BJP’s claim: Official data does not bear out BJP’s claim that: (1) Population of non-Muslims in Pakistan has dropped from 23 per cent at the time of Independence to 3.7 per cent in 2011. (2) Population of non-Muslims in Bangladesh was 22 per cent at the time of Independence and has been reduced to 7.8 per cent in 2011. (3) This decline in population share of non-Muslims in these two Pakistan and Bangladesh was due to widespread religious persecution.

Conclusion

Based on Pakistan’s Census 1951, the BJP cherry picked and mixed-up data for the then East and West Pakistan to corroborate its hypothesis. Non-Muslims in the East Pakistan’s population constituted 23 per cent, not in both wings, as the BJP claimed.  Clubbed together (East and West Pakistan), share of non-Muslims was 14.20 per cent (the highest ever) in 1951. BJP’s claim that non-Muslim share fell from 23 per cent to 3.7 per cent in Pakistan is incorrect.  It averaged about 3.5 per cent from the first census onwards.1951: 3.44 per cent, 1961: 2.80 per cent, 1972: 3.25 per cent, 1981: 3.33 per cent, and 1998: 3.70 per cent

Partial truth: As alleged by BJP, non-Muslim population did decrease significantly in

Bangladesh, but from 23.20 per cent in 1951 to 9.40 per cent in 2011, not from 22 per cent to 7.8 per cent, as alleged.

The persecution argument more aptly applies to Nepal (Rohingya), Sri Lanka (Tamil settlers) and Bhutan (whence Christians trek to Indian churches for worship).Five Indian states have already disowned the enacted citizenship in its present format. The writer is the editor The Consul.

Mr. Amjed Jaaved has been contributing free-lance for over five decades. His contributions stand published in the leading dailies at home and abroad (Nepal. Bangladesh, et. al.). He is author of seven e-books including Terrorism, Jihad, Nukes and other Issues in Focus (ISBN: 9781301505944). He holds degrees in economics, business administration, and law.

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South Asia

Reimagining Pakistan Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State- Book Review

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Pakistan:  A Lost Cause?

In his book, ‘Reimagining Pakistan’, Husain Haqqani discusses the origins of Pakistan as a state while laying bare the genesis of the state it has evolved into, ultimately culminating with his formula, for a reimagined Pakistan. As he rightly points out, Jinnah, when calling for a separate state of Pakistan, invoked religion as a way of giving a semblance of unity and solidity to his divided (by ethnicity, language, geography) Muslim constituents. Consequently, his demand for Pakistan was perforce “specifically ambiguous and imprecise” (p.7) (Jalal)so as to command general support. This base of religious nationalism also became the country’s foundation for successive governments.

Then, taking a look behind the scenes, Haqqani says, even as the new state of Pakistan, was formed disadvantageously, with no functioning capital city, government or financial resources, its ill prepared founders unlike their Congress counterparts had no plans for the smooth functioning of a new country. Even, the concept of a common Governor General with India was rejected and Jinnah became the first head of state thereby losing for Pakistan all advantages financial and otherwise of having a moderating influence of a common governor general. Delineating the chemistry of Pakistani politics since independence, Husain with absolute clarity tells us that almost from the beginning part of the state apparatus used religion and religious groups for political ends. This unleashed a rampaging genie of religious–political chaos from time to time with the army stepping in to return the rampaging genie to its proverbial bottle. In this context Haqqani tells us that it was Zia’s US backed “religious militancy” (p.100)in the form of jihad which Pakistan is dealing with till this day.

The author succinctly says Pakistan has thus become home to the world’s “angriest Muslims” (p.112), with successive civilian and military governments choosing to appease “dial-a-riot” (ibid)Islamist hardliners, rather than confronting them. Drawing upon Shuja Nawaz’s telling comment that “Pakistan’s history is one of conflict between an under developed political system and a well – organized army”(Nawaz), Husain invokes this argument to point to consistent authoritarianism in the history of Pakistan when he refers to its four key military dictators.

The author also invokes Bengali leader Suharwardy’s prophetic commentary on possible economic chaos in Pakistan, wherein he had warned that there would be no commerce, business or trade if Pakistan were to keep “raising the bogey of attacks” (p.58), and engage in constant “friction with India” (ibid). Husain in his book, ‘India vs Pakistan – Why can’t we just be Friends’ talks of this pathological obsession with India and the consequent pressure points in their relationship. Ignoring, Jinnah’s vision of two countries, with porous borders, “like the United States and Canada” (Jinnah, p.58).Unfortunately, with policy making playing second fiddle to national pride and morale, the narrative in Pakistan has become that of a victim not only of conspiratorial enemies but also an army which expands the magnitude of threats to match its size.

Hence, as the author points out most Pakistani leaders, except Ayub Khan have shown little interest in economic matters. Ignoring fundamentals of economics, aid gathered internationally by Pakistan as rentier to the western world, was frittered away in building military capacity just as it sank ever lower in terms of human development indices. With the culture being one of extolling the “warrior nation” (p.62) over the “trader nation” (ibid), Pakistan then fell into a state of “ideological dysfunction” (p.63). Like Husain says, Justice Munir of the Munir Commission in 1953 was prescient when he said that, “you can persuade the masses to believe that something they are asked to do is religiously right or enjoined by religion, you can set them to any course of action, regardless of all considerations discipline, loyalty, decency, morality or civic sense”(p.83). The author quickly links this up to “Islamist Rage” (p.96), with jihad as a panacea for all the ills that befell the nation. Before long, the self-proclaimed Pakistani upholders of the honour of Islam and its prophet re-wrote their history with falsehoods to fit a fictional narrative born from an inherent insecurity which even acquisition of nuclear weapons could not assuage.

Ultimately, in his quest to offer a roadmap for a reimagined Pakistan, the most telling suggestion that comes from Haqqani is his exhortation that Pakistan should embrace its “multi-ethnic” (p.274) and “multi lingual reality” (ibid)just like Belgium did many years back and forever rid itself of the spectre of disintegration. He would thus, like his country to draw away from its focus on survival and resilience, a concept partially imparted by its military moorings and truly reimagine itself as a non- confessional state where the “individual can be pious and the society can be religious”(p.120). Going further, to him Pakistan has to have a national identity other than its self -obsessive and ever draining competition with India and not forever depend on God alone to ensure its survival.

Thus, wanting Pakistan to stop its “march of folly”(Tuchman), by creating a national identity which bypasses the nexus between power and bigotry, quoting Ayesha Jalal he talks of the damaging lack of territorial nationalism in the definition of Pakistan as an Islamic State. In this context he traces the breaking away of East Pakistan and possible future disintegration of Pakistan along ethnic lines just as it happened in say, Russia. Undeniably, Haqqani exhibits great courage when he says that if Pakistan has to have a future different from its past, it must identify the various confabulations of its leaders so as to not fulfill Barbara Tuchman’s “march of folly”, due to “governmental folly and obstinacy” (p.244).

All this notwithstanding, in this book Husain has laid bare the origins and development of Pakistan, in to what it is today. As an expert on radical Islamic movements, he traces the stranglehold that the jihadists and Islamic movements have on the state players and also tells us that it is the army which acts as a check and balance whatever else the other negatives might be in allowing the army to play such a pivotal role in the formation of the Pakistan nation and creation of jihadist movements. Quoting extensively from primary and secondary sources, he shows the proverbial mirror to the collective psyche of his nation. Jinnah’s speeches and Munir Commission’s findings are excellent primary sources in this regard, while among others Ayesha Jalal and Shuja Nawaz add credibility and meaningful insights to Husain’s process of reasoning. At the same time research and data is indeed exhaustive and the research team not lacking in extending support to his rubric, while Haqqani himself does not draw away from some uncomfortable truths that Pakistan must face. Even though, Husain has done a remarkable and honest job in analysing the dysfunctional aspects of the state of Pakistan, where the book lacks is that though the title suggests we are going to read about a roadmap to reimagine Pakistan, the emphasis is more on how the state was formed, its ideological moorings, and the role of the various players as it evolved over time. The suggestions for reimagining obviously need more reimagining as the suggestions provided by the author are not in the form of a coherent roadmap and his suggestions are few and far between besides being scattered randomly at times, through the course of the book. Also, to my mind, the author does not face the real tough questions as to how the cat (army) is to be belled, the monolithic behemoth that it has become. Over here, G Parthasarthy’s comment, “Every country has an army but in Pakistan, an army has a country”(G.Parthasarthy), comes to mind, something which its leaders would do well to remember. Besides this Husain does not seem to hold the western powers to account as they were probably just as much to blame for the current state of affairs when they played the renewed “great game”(Hopkirk)in this part of the world. From his unique perspective as an advisor to four ex-prime-ministers and the ambassadorship to U.S.A at a time when there was a global war on terrorism(Haqqani, Hudson Institute ), Haqqani should have dwelt as much on reimagining as he did on cautioning his homeland from its precipitous “march to folly” (p.264)(.Tuchman). Perhaps a second volume could take up this slack wherein the excellent foundational analysis of the state of Pakistan is the launch pad for a futuristic road map for reimagining.

Reimagining Pakistan Transforming a Dysfunctional Nuclear State by Husain Haqqani, Harper Collins ,2018

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South Asia

Emerging Muslim Blocs and Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Dilemma

Tamseel Aqdas

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Over the years, Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had established substantial influence over the Muslim world, and were essentially ‘leading’ the Muslim world through the genesis of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Through the OIC, resolution of conflicts penetrating towards Muslim minorities in states like the Philippines were directed. In addition, financial aid was provided to developing Muslim countries like Pakistan. Nevertheless, in the contemporary notion, the Arab states heading the OIC have diverted their priorities to complement their political and economic interests; which can be attained through close alliances and diplomatic ties with  USA, Israel and India. Consequently, a new bloc of non-Arab states, namely: Turkey, Iran and Malaysia have emerged to fill the vacuum, because they collectively share concerns over the foreign policy of the Saudi Arabia and UAE led Muslim bloc. Where, they lack involvement in resolving standing conflicts that impact the stability of Muslim countries, such as the Kashmir conflict between Pakistan and India and the Israel-Palestine conflict. Hence, the new Muslim bloc aims to bring about a renaissance for unity and prosperity in the Muslim world, which is deteriorating due to the Saudi and UAE led bloc.

In fact, the UAE has acknowledged Israel as a legitimate state whilst establishing full diplomatic ties, and Saudi Arabia, Oman and Bahrain are assumed to follow its footsteps in a matter of time. UAE is changing the dynamics of its non -renewable oil based economy, since oil will eventually dissipate. Hence, it is now investing in technological developments, such as the Masdar sustainable city project in Abu Dhabi. Since Israel is a technological hub, this decision was based on economic interests. In addition, the billion dollar deal between Iran and China for the development of Chabahar port poses a threat to the security of these Arab states. Meaning, establishing closer ties with the West through recognition of Israel was an attempt to stabilize the potential security threat. As, UAE will gain access to news weapons, such as: F-35 stealth fighters and advanced drones. Along these lines, Saudi Arabia and the UAE no longer carry ambitions of leading and protecting the Muslim world; instead, due to the changing economic and security dynamics of the region, they preferred national interests over the interests of the Muslim states.

Being home to the second largest Muslim population and the only nuclear power in the Muslim world, both blocs carry the aim of integrating Pakistan. However, Pakistan may find itself in the midst of a dilemma. As, one bloc serves its ideological purpose, whilst the other bloc carries numerous economic incentives. On one end, the Saudi and UAE led bloc offers economic allurement, such as: loans, deferred oil payment and job opportunities to millions of unemployed Pakistanis. Nevertheless, not calling an OIC meeting for the Kashmir cause and recognizing the state of Israel challenges the ideological existence of Pakistan. Since, Pakistan regards the annexation of Kashmir as illegal, and condemns India for the human rights violations in that region. Furthermore, according to Quaid’s vision, Israel cannot be accepted as a legitimate state unless Palestinians are provided with an equal opportunity for the creation of their own state. As a result, lack of action in the Kashmir and Palestinian genocide paves as obstacle in Pakistan adapting the Saudi and UAE led bloc. On the contrary, the Turkey led bloc has openly sided with Pakistan on its stance on the human rights violations occurring in Kashmir. In addition, they also raise their voice against Israel’s war crimes. Furthermore, Iran- a state in the emerging Turkey led block- is capable of supplying Pakistan with large amounts of power and energy. This can benefit the industrial growth of Pakistan, whilst improving the economic conditions of Pakistan as well. Henceforth, Pakistan has a like-minded foreign policy ideology with Turkey, Malaysia and Iran, and Iran can potentially provide economic incentives through power and energy supplies as well. Nevertheless, the benchmark of economic inducement provided via the Saudi and UAE led block is high, and can outweigh the Turkey led block.

Despite Pakistan’s attempt to form an appropriate balance between these blocs, the strategic and ideological interests of Pakistan over the region of Kashmir led to the apparent notion of Pakistan siding with the Turkey led bloc. In a statement by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, avoiding an OIC meeting in accordance with the Kashmir conflict presumed the fact that the Saudi and UAE led bloc have kept their mutual business interests with India over the occurrence of human rights violations in Kashmir. Consequently, out of circumstance Pakistan is compelled to bring forward a meeting with states sharing Pakistan’s stance on the Kashmir cause (i.e. Turkey, Malaysia and Iran). This was a major shift in Pakistan’s foreign policy, because Pakistan has generation after generation viewed Saudi Arabia as the leader of the Muslim Ummah. In fact, Pakistan fought several proxy wars for Riyadh, despite the notion that it left Pakistan economically vulnerable. Nevertheless, Saudi’s lack of commitment towards Pakistan’s interests, compelled Pakistan to divert its foreign policy. Not surprisingly, as a response Saudi Arabia withdrew the deferred payment of oil and asked for the immediate return of US$1 billion. As a result, Pakistan’s chief of Army Staff had to make an immediate visit to Saudi Arabia, in order to stabilize the rising tensions. This entailed that Pakistan could not bear the economic burden of impaired relations.

Thus, despite the fact that Pakistan attempted to change the direction of its foreign policy to suit its ideological interests, it was taken over by the storm of economic dependence. Pakistan lacks the financial stability to tarnish their relations with the Saudi and UAE led bloc and shifting  towards the Turkey led bloc. As, that could mean the return of millions of employees and the immediate payment of loans, which the government of Pakistan cannot afford. Implying how Pakistan is incapable of changing its foreign policy on its own, and is influenced by external dynamics instead. Henceforth, a stable economy can enable Pakistan to exercise a foreign policy based on its ideological purpose.

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Justice for Justice!

Palwasha Binte Inam

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A country where justice is served to affluent people only, however the poverty stricken suffer. Where justice and law are limited to papers and bills only, nonetheless scarcely any execution is observed. Is Pakistan independent from the shackles of injustice and corruption or is it still in slavery of two laws?No justice is a threat to justice itself, that’s why we demand justice for justice. As Martin Luther king once said, “Without justice there can be no peace. He who passively accepts evil is as much involved in it as he who helps to perpetrate it.”

In June 2017 Sergeant Haji Attaullah at Quetta’s GPO Chowk was struck by a vehicle which belonged to Majeed Achakzai (Ex MPA of Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party.)The traffic police officer had been seriously wounded in the accident and was taken to Civil Hospital Quetta where he succumbed to his injuries. In spite of a clear video evidence, on 4th September 2020, the model court in Quetta acquitted former (MPA) in the traffic sergeant murder case due to lack of evidence. The family of a traffic sergeant who was run over and killed has refuted reports of reaching compromise with him. The deceased’s brother said they have decided to challenge the acquittal of Achakzai in the Balochistan High Court (BHC). “Neither have we reached any compromise with Majeed Achakzai nor have received any blood money,” he clarified. According to a private news channel, the deceased’s brother said the CCTV footage of the incident is clear evidence of how the cop was killed. Besides, he lamented that the authorities have not fulfilled the promise of giving a job to the deceased’s son in the police department yet. Regrettably, this is not the only incident in which law was used to benefit the rich and the poor was left in despair. In fact, law should be used to serve justice to the lawful and punish the unlawful, however this isn’t the case in Pakistan.

Rape is also one of the heinous crimes in which the victims are hardly served justice. Once the rape is done, the victim is meant to suffer throughout the life. The suffering is in the form of mental trauma, lack of self-confidence and one of the heart wrenching fact that such families have to suffer social isolation. In the first 60 days of 2020, as many as 73 incidents of rape have been reported, including 5 gang-rape cases. Thus, sexual assault and abuse cases in Pakistan have not decreased. A periodical report titled “Tracking Crimes against People – A Numeric Tale of Human (In) Security” released by human rights group Sustainable Social Development Organization (SSDO) revealed a 200 per cent increase in cases of rape against women and children in the past three months. Minors are mostly targeted by pedophiles in playgrounds, streets, markets, shops in congested localities, and also schools and madrassas.  According to the official data since January 2018 no one was convicted in 141 child rape cases reported in Lahore so far. In addition to these,3 rape cases were reported in just 24 hours including the motorway incident, rape of 12-year-old in Gujranwala and a rape of women cyclist in the capital of Pakistan (Islamabad.) Most criminals escape conviction because of poor investigation by police and flawed persecution. These stats are not just alarming, but they are awful and it clearly spreads this message that children and women aren’t safe.

Rape incidents have increased at a much higher rate, despite the introduction of Pakistan’s first national child abuse law in March. The Zainab Alert, Response and Recovery Bill, passed in March, introduced a life imprisonment penalty for those found guilty of child abuse, as well as a dedicated helpline and agency. The country’s first national child abuse legislation also requires police to register a case of abuse within two hours of a child being reported missing. Law enforcement officers must also complete their investigations into individual cases within three months. Recently, the rape and murder of a 5-year-old girl named Marwah in Karachi, Pakistan, has sparked an outpouring of tributes on social media, with many using the #JusticeForMarwah hashtag to demand better protection for minors. According to local media, Marwah was kidnapped after attempting to buy biscuits at a local shop on Friday. Her body was found in a garbage heap two days later, and a subsequent autopsy report revealed she had been sexually assaulted, hit in the head, and set alight.

A few days earlier, Zain Qureshi, a mere 12-year-old boy, was raped in Multan on August 31. Three unknown men allegedly cajoled the boy into accompanying them to the market where they viciously planned to rape him. Various accounts allegedly state that Zain was raped by one of these men, but his resistance to the second attempt got him shot in the bottom. Zain was rushed to Nishtar Hospital where he underwent a five-hour surgical operation and, thankfully, survived! It has also been reportedly pronounced that two men involved in the Zain Qureshi rape case have been taken into custody, whereas one is still on the run. The most recent rape incident which has sent a clear message to the daughters of Pakistan that they are not safe because predators are roaming around freely. A woman was raped in front of her children by two unidentified men on the motorway early Wednesday. The men fled after the rape and stole her cash and jewelry worth Rs100,000. She was driving to Gujranwala with her children when she ran out of fuel near Lahore’s Gujjarpura. The woman was sitting in her vehicle when two men walked towards her car, broke her window, and made her park on the roadside. They then took her and the children to a nearby forest and raped her. The police said the woman’s initial medical examination confirmed that she had been raped. A case has been registered.

Even though, the fact is that rape is a serious crime punishable by death, yet frequency of rape incidents is persisting in Pakistan due to dysfunctional mechanism of law enforcement. The judicial system and police infrastructure, due to complicated legal requirements, have not been playing the expected role and have not produced fruitful results to control this vicious crime.  As a result, the perpetrators have been damaging innocent lives, tarnishing their social status and ruining their honor in the society without any fear of punishment. According to (HRCP), an incident of rape occurs every two hours and an innocent victim is gang-raped every four to eight days. The reports are serious blot on the Islamic society of Pakistan. Its high time for the authorities to consider rape a serious issue and take immediate measures for ending such crimes.

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