Greece – Turkey: Marching to the final countdown?

At the end of 2019, Greece and Hellenism are facing one of the biggest and most dangerous challenges since 1974. The post-dictatorship/democratic period began with the tragedy of Cyprus in 1974 and is likely to end with a new confrontation in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean. It seems that Turkey and Erdogan have made their decision and are fulfilling their plans both for the “Blue Homeland” and for the revival of their neo-Ottoman vision of a geopolitical environment dominated by Turkey in the wider region, from the Balkans to the Middle East.

A famous politician used to say that “when there is and of the “blah, blah”, there begins the “boom, boom”. And, the evidence we have so far shows that dialogue is no longer meaningful.The diplomatic deterrence and pressure of our allies will reach a point where we will see the Turkish fleet accompanying drilling rigs and patrolling the pseudo-Turkey-Libya Exclusive Economic Zone (ΕΕZ) , so Greece will not have another choice than military involvement to defend its sovereign rights.

The end of the era of illusions

For Greece, the recent crisis with Turkey also means the end of the any illusions held by the political system and of Greek society as a whole. We must finally understand and realize, the hard way, that any illusions are done with. What we failed to do–intentionally or not—in so many years past, in order to defend our rights, we have now do in just a few weeks or months. We rested on our laurels, on our endotism, on the cultivation of phobic syndromes and defeatism. Even worse, the country’s political system and corrupt elite have given priority to serving the interests of lenders through the loan agreements and their very survival through impunity, immunity, concealment and protection.

I doubt that the “invisible hand” of the foreign factor that many believe will once again interfere and save us from a crisis so that we can continue to live as before, will work in this time period. In recent years, endotism and the cultivation of anti-patriotic thought (by Greeks) have no precedent in Greek modern history. As Greece has signed and ratified the  Law of the Sea,it has all the right to have up to 200 nautical miles of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to exploit natural wealth (fishing, gas, oil, etc.) and territorial waters of 12 nm, but nonetheless has done nothing to put these laws into effect, which says a lot. Greece has not yet proceed with (or was not allowed to) an EEZ declaration and delimitation agreement with Cyprus, Egypt, Italy, or even Albania!!!!

The betrayal of Macedonia by giving language and identity rights to the neighboring state, ignoring the will of the Greek people, and effectively dissolving 3-4 political parties to achieve a majority in the Greek parliament, was perhaps the culmination of retreat and withdrawal. At that time, the international factor and our allies had fallen upon Greece with suffocating pressure to sign the agreement and now we are still running as if “in a craze” to put Skopje and Albania back into NATO and the EU again without any advantages to be provided.

For those who have not yet understood it, the refugee and illegal immigration issue is a wound to the Greek economy, social cohesion, internal security and a geostrategic weapon.

The international environment

So far Europe, the European Union, US, Russia, Egypt, Israel, France, Germany, etc., have opposed and challenged the Libyan-Turkish agreement.  NATO has taken itself out of it, and therefore the alliance is not dealing with internal affairs, although all say that Greece is right. But how seriously can we expect that they will deal with a “hot incident” in the waters of the Aegean, Crete and the Eastern Mediterranean? Will they block Turkey by sending warships for example or will they exert intolerable political and diplomatic pressure? The most likely scenario, and what Turkey wants, is to get Greece to the negotiation table for co-operation, delimitation of maritime EEZs in order to secure stability in the region, peace, etc., which could possibly also benefit foreign powers, with Greece being the losing party, once again.

A few months ago Turkish drilling ships in Cyprus EEZ conducted illegal  drillings conducted illegal escorted by warships, the EU talked about sanctions, the French and Italian companies abandoned the scene and left, and non crucial reactions were taken. Turkey then entered northern Syria without no real opposition from the US and Russia in order to “stabilize” the region. In London, recently, Erdogan met simultaneously with Macron (France), Johnson (United Kingdom) and Merkel (Germany), but also with US President, Trump. The paradox is that the whole Western world is now, and will also be in the months ahead, experiencing a political internal volatility without it being clear whether they will have the will and priority to put the Greek-Turkish issue on their agenda. In the US, Trump will go through the impeachment process in Congress, in UK Brexit is right at the door, Merkel’s coalition in Germany weathers away, Spain still has no government after two electoral races, and Salvini in Italy is preparing to take power in the next elections. While the other ally, Israel, after two unsuccessful electoral fights and Netanyahu’s corruption allegations, has its own internal political issues and elections next March.

What shall Greece do

Under no circumstances should Greece show phobic and defeatist reactions to Turkey. The measures required are diplomatic and military, temperance, vigilance and preparation and a battle with time. Among other things, the country should move quickly, beyond putting the issue to the latest EU Council of Heads, with the following:

-The proclamation of EEZ throughout Greece’s maritime boundaries to Italian, Libyan,  Aegean, and Eastern Mediterranean seas (maritime jurisdiction) and its delimitation with Cyprus‘s EEZ

-Recognition of General Haftar’s government in Libya

-Greek – Egyptian EEZ, delimitation

-Interruption of military dialogue with Turkey, like the military building trust measures and anything else, while simultaneously sending a strong message of deterrence and non-acceptance of any explorations and drilling by Turkey

-Redeployment and reinforcement of the Armed Forces as the Greek military know very well

-Informing the major US / Russian / Chinese powers that Greece will, by all means, prevent explorations and drillings in the country’s  jurisdiction and that this may endanger their  vital interests (geopolitically and financially) in the region and the wider Mediterranean basin.

-Council of Greek Political Leaders and may God help us.

Giannis Mitsios
Giannis Mitsios
International Relations expert