Connect with us

Energy News

Asia is set to support global coal demand for the next five years

MD Staff

Published

on

Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in major Asian markets, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest market analysis and forecasts.

The weakness in coal demand this year results mainly from coal-fired electricity generation, which is set to experience its largest ever decline – over 250 terawatt hours (TWh), or more than 2.5%. This drop is led by double-digit falls in the United States and Europe, according to Coal 2019, which was released today and contains forecasts through 2024.

It is too soon to say whether the expected global decrease in coal power generation this year will be the start of a lasting trend. The IEA forecasts that renewable sources will supply a major portion of the increase in global electricity demand over the next five years. Electricity generation from coal will rise only marginally over that period, at less than 1% per year – and its share will decline from 38% in 2018 to 35% in 2024. This means coal remains by far the single largest source of power supply worldwide.

Ultimately, global trends will depend largely on China, where half of the world’s coal is produced and consumed.

In Europe and the United States, coal power generation is sinking to levels not seen in decades. Growth in solar PV and wind, low natural gas prices and stagnating electricity demand have created a perfect storm for coal in both regions, where coal plants retirements continue to take place. These trends will continue through 2024, although the speed of the declines is expected to slow unless coal comes under additional pressure from stronger climate policies or lower-than-expected natural gas prices.

“Wind and solar PV are growing rapidly in many parts of the world. With investment in new plants drying up, coal power capacity outside Asia is clearly declining and will continue to do so in the coming years,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security, who is launching the report in Johannesburg today alongside Gwede Mantashe, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral and Energy Resources.

“But this is not the end of coal, since demand continues to expand in Asia,” Mr Sadamori added. “The region’s share of global coal power generation has climbed from just over 20% in 1990 to almost 80% in 2019, meaning coal’s fate is increasingly tied to decisions made in Asian capitals.”

The report highlights that countries in South and Southeast Asia – such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam – are relying on coal to fuel their economic growth. Natural gas and oil have traditionally been the main sources of power generation in Pakistan, but the country has commissioned 5 gigawatts (GW) of coal power capacity since 2017, and another 5 GW is set to come online in the next few years. In Bangladesh, where natural gas has long generated the bulk of electricity supply, coal will gain share in the coming years, with 10 GW of capacity in the pipeline.

“In 2019, global coal power generation will experience the biggest drop ever and coal power generation in India will probably decline for the first time in 45 years,” Mr Sadamori said. “The global picture, however, has not changed much. Coal is disappearing in many advanced economies, but it remains resilient and is even continuing to grow in developing Asia. The low coal power generation in India this year was due to unusually low growth in electricity demand and exceptionally high hydropower output. It is not at all clear that it will be repeated.”

The IEA forecast for global coal demand in this year’s report is very similar to those in previous years, but Coal 2019 warns that potential threats to the sector are increasing. Public opposition to coal is building, many countries are mulling stronger climate and environmental policies, and renewables and natural gas are becoming more and more competitive.

Continue Reading
Comments

Energy News

IEA gathers first meeting of network of experts on oil and gas methane regulation

Newsroom

Published

on

The IEA held a workshop in January 2020 that brought together more than sixty members of industry, policy and regulatory bodies, technical experts and other knowledgeable stakeholders to exchange views on ways to best step up efforts to regulate methane emissions from the oil and gas sector.

The meeting was hosted in collaboration with the Florence School of Regulation, the United Nations Environmental Programme, and other partners of the Methane Guiding Principles (MGPs), a multi-stakeholder collaborative platform of industry, intergovernmental organizations, academia, and civil society.

The MGPs were created following the in-depth focus on oil and gas methane emissions in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2017. The activities under the MGPs aim to reduce the environmental impacts associated with oil and gas supply, recognising that – even with ambitious efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – these fuels are set to remain part of the energy system for many years to come.

IEA analysis has highlighted over many years the importance of addressing methane emissions from oil and gas operations, as a powerful and cost-effective way to reduce the environmental footprint of these fuels. One of the key ways to do so, written into the principles, is via “sound methane policies and regulations that incentivise early action, drive performance improvements, facilitate proper enforcement, and support flexibility and innovation.”

The one-day event heard presentations from a diverse set of stakeholders—including principal actors from country regulatory bodies and leading thinkers from civil society groups—sparking discussions on how to carry forward lessons learned from existing regulatory approaches in other jurisdictions to mitigating methane, and opportunities to expand the geographic reach of successful methane regulation. In total, more than thirty countries were represented at the workshop.

According to the IEA’s most recent estimates, annual methane emissions from oil and gas are around 80 million metric tonnes. Despite heightened attention to the topic, the effect of today’s voluntary initiatives and commitments from policymakers is not sufficient to meet global climate goals outlined in the Sustainable Development Scenario.

“The world needs to take every opportunity to reduce methane emissions as an integral part of tackling climate change,” IEA Deputy Executive Director Paul Simons said in his opening to the workshop. “Our aim today is to exchange views and lessons learned on what approaches work and what don’t work; what are the different considerations that have shaped regulation and enforcement in different jurisdictions around the world; and what can be done to support and widen these efforts.”

The importance of taking action on feasible, cost-effective methane abatement opportunities has been underscored in consecutive WEO analyses examining the environmental impacts of fossil fuel consumption and production. It was also a core message of an IEA special report, ‘The Oil and Gas Industry in Energy Transitions,’ released last month. 

Building on its multi-tiered methane analyses, the IEA has launched the Methane Tracker, an online information platform that lays out a coherent set of estimates for global oil and gas methane emissions on a country-by-country basis. In a first-of-its-kind assessment, the Tracker also estimates the abatement potentials and costs of avoiding emissions that are possible by applying methane mitigation technologies across oil and gas value chains.

Since the Tracker’s initial release in July of last year, a number of new features have been added to the online tool, including a new section that covers policy and regulatory approaches to methane and features a database populated with methane regulatory measures from key oil and gas producing jurisdictions.

Over the course of 2020-21, the IEA will make further advancements to the Tracker with the aim of continuing to develop the tool to be useful for governments, industry and other stakeholders working to tackle methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. These advancements will take a particular eye towards policymakers and regulators seeking to improve or create policy for methane reductions, including continued expansion of the policy and regulation database and the coverage of regulatory analysis. The IEA also plans to reconvene the network of experts within this timeline. 

Continue Reading

Energy News

New Strategy to Help Vietnam Scale Up and Better Utilize Solar Power

Newsroom

Published

on

A report based on two years of World Bank support to the Government of Vietnam recommends new approaches to bidding and deployment for solar projects that will help Vietnam substantially boost and effectively manage its abundant solar energy resources.

Such approaches could boost Vietnam’s solar generation capacity from the current 4.5 gigawatts to the tens of gigawatts range in ten years, while creating thousands of new jobs, according to the new World Bank Vietnam Solar Competitive Bidding Strategy and Framework report. The deployment of new solar generation will be a critical factor for the Government of Vietnam to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) climate change target and reduce its need for new coal generation.

The report comes as Vietnam is considering moving from a feed-in-tariff (FIT) policy to a competitive bidding scheme for solar projects to reduce the cost of solar generation. The FIT has been successful in recent years, spurring the fast deployment of projects at a time when Vietnam has also become a world leader in solar module manufacturing. However, this success has also given rise to new issues, including curtailment —or underuse of solar generation capacity.

The report, supported by the Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) and the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), recommends two new deployment schemes for projects: competitive bidding for solar parks, and ‘substation-based bidding’—competitive bidding based on available capacity at electrical substations. These approaches would address the curtailment issue as well as improve risk allocation between public and private investors.

The first pilot tenders—500 megawatts (MW) for substation-based bidding and another 500 MW for ground-mounted solar parks—are being planned for later in 2020 with the technical and financial support of the World Bank.

“The World Bank is fully committed to helping Vietnam achieve its sustainable energy ambitions,” said Ousmane Dione, World Bank Country Director for Vietnam. “We expect that this new strategy will open up a new chapter in Vietnam’s already successful solar power expansion.”

Beyond the new approaches to competitive bidding, the report recommends setting yearly and medium-term solar deployment targets and revisions to the legal framework covering the competitive selection of independent power producers.  

The report estimates that the expansion in solar generation capacity in Vietnam could generate as many as 25,000 new jobs in project development, services and operations and maintenance annually through 2030 and another 20,000 jobs in manufacturing provided Vietnam maintains its current share of the global solar equipment market.

“We are grateful for World Bank support to promote renewable energy in Vietnam,” said Hoang Tien Dung, General Director of Electricity and Renewable Energy Authority, Ministry of Industry and Trade. “In particular, the World Bank’s support to the Government’s effort in shifting from FIT to a competitive bidding mechanism for solar PV could be applied for other types of renewable energy in the future. It contributes to the sustainable and transparent development of renewable energy in Vietnam by harmonizing the interests of private investors, the government and customers.

The World Bank has been instrumental in supporting the Government of Vietnam’s solar development planning for years. Since 2017, with financing from ESMAP and GIF, the World Bank has provided a large portfolio of technical assistance ranging from solar resource mapping to strategic advice on mobilization of private investment in utility-scale solar projects. 

Continue Reading

Energy News

Building a “Grand Coalition” to bridge the gap between energy and climate goals

Newsroom

Published

on

photo: IEA

Ministers and high-level representatives from COP host countries met at the International Energy Agency on Wednesday to review ways the energy sector can meet climate and other sustainability goals.

The speakers included Kwasi Kwarteng, the Minister for Business, Energy and Clean Growth of the United Kingdom, which holds the Presidency of the upcoming COP26 this year; Michał Kurtyka, Poland’s Minister of Climate and President of COP24; and Joan Groizard Payeras, Director-General of the Energy Agency at the Ministry for the Ecological Transition of Spain, which hosted the COP25.

Held at the IEA headquarters in Paris under the Agency’s “Big Ideas” speaker series, the conference was attended by Ambassadors and senior representatives from about 50 countries, industry executives, and representatives from financial and international organizations.

The conference took place a day after the IEA announced that global carbon emissions had stopped growing last year, defying common expectations that they would increase in 2019. The news provided a positive backdrop for the discussions, which were chaired by Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director.

As part of its mandate as the leading global energy organization, the IEA is focusing on both energy security and global clean energy transitions, helping governments steer the energy sector towards international climate targets in a secure, sustainable and affordable manner. In his opening remarks, Dr Birol pointed out that the energy sector accounts for most of the global carbon emissions, and has a key role to play in global energy transitions.

“Without solving the challenge of the energy sector, we have no chance of solving our climate challenge,” Dr Birol said in his opening remarks. “We want 2019 to be remembered as the year of peaking global emissions and the 2020s as the decade of the decline in emissions. And the energy sector is ready to be part of the solution.”

As part of its commitment to bridging the gap between the energy sector and the climate goals, the Agency announced it would hold the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit on 9 July in Paris. This ministerial-level event will bring together key government ministers, CEOs, investors and other major stakeholders from around the world with the aim of accelerating the pace of change through ambitious and real world solutions.

The immediate aim will be to focus on concrete actions to reverse the growth in carbon emissions this decade, focusing on all the fuels and existing technologies that can help achieve that goal rapidly.

To support these objectives, the IEA will publish two major studies ahead of the summit. The first will be a World Energy Outlook Special Report that will map out how to cut global energy-related carbon emissions by one-third by 2030. The second will be the newest Energy Technology Perspectives report, which will focus on an energy sector pathway for reaching net-zero emissions, looking in detail into all technology opportunities that could help to reduce emissions in hard to abate sectors.

The IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit will be preceded by the fifth edition of the Agency’s annual energy efficiency ministerial conference, which will also take place in Paris on 8 July, and will be an opportunity to review the findings of the IEA’s Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency.

“The debate around climate change is sometimes too heated and there is too much tension between the energy community and the climate change community,” said Dr Birol. “We think this debate needs to be taken in a cool-headed manner. This calls for a grand coalition that brings together all the stakeholders that have a genuine commitment to reducing emissions – governments, industry, financial institutions, international organizations and civil society. Without this grand coalition, it will be very difficult to address this challenge.”

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Newsdesk2 hours ago

Year-old peace agreement must be implemented for ‘lasting peace’ in Central African Republic

Following a visit to the Central African Republic, a UN independent expert said that everyone must take all measures necessary...

African Renaissance4 hours ago

The forgotten world of female silence (around issues of mental cruelty and abandonment)

I think of victims of abuse. Have I been a victim of abuse all of this time, all of these...

EU Politics6 hours ago

Climate-neutral Europe: EU invests more than €100 million in new LIFE Programme projects

The European Commission today announced an investment of €101.2 million for the latest projects under the LIFE programme for the...

South Asia8 hours ago

Pakistan puts press freedom at the core of struggle for new world order

Sweeping new regulations restricting social media in Pakistan put freedom of expression and the media at the heart of the...

Environment10 hours ago

Mobile game aims to bridge gap between citizens and leaders on climate action

Millions of people worldwide will get to share their views on climate action through a UN campaign launched on Thursday aimed at connecting them with Governments and...

Defense12 hours ago

Lithuania: To serve or not to serve in the army

It is well known that in 2015 Lithuanian authorities reintroduced compulsory military service due to the potential threat caused by...

Newsdesk14 hours ago

World Bank Group Launches Initiatives Supporting Women Entrepreneurs

The World Bank Group announced two new initiatives to improve access to start-up financing and e-commerce markets for women entrepreneurs,...

Trending