Deloitte today released the 19th edition of its “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions,” which looks at three overarching themes: individual technologies are becoming ever more interconnected and interdependent, increasing their impact and value as a result; smartphones, computers, TVs, enterprise data centers and software, and IoT will drive most of the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) industry’s revenue; and lastly, many previously hyped services and products will finally become a reality in 2020.
“In 2020, we will start to see a canopy effect where industry players will work more closely together as individual technologies like edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips, robots and private 5G become better connected, and promising innovations like low-earth orbit satellites finally come to life,” said Paul Sallomi, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, global TMT industry leader and U.S. technology sector leader. “This year’s predictions are a helpful guide for TMT business leaders to break through the clutter and understand what to do next in order to help be successful in 2020 and beyond.”
“These disruptive forces will continue to challenge traditional tech, media and telecom companies to keep pace with new-age, digital native companies. Those that can innovate, swiftly bring the latest developments to market and satisfy the demands of increasingly savvy consumers are the ones most likely to be rewarded,” said Sandra Shirai, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. technology, media and telecommunications leader.
AI has the edge
A new generation of edge AI chips will reduce frustrations caused by
lack of internet connection on smartphones by bringing AI to the device.
Deloitte predicts that in 2020, more than 750 million edge AI chips — chips or
parts of chips that perform or accelerate machine learning tasks on-device,
rather than in a remote data center — will be sold, and that the edge AI chip
market will continue to grow much more quickly than the overall chip market.
Private 5G: Enterprise untethered
Deloitte predicts that more than 100 companies worldwide will begin
testing private 5G deployments by the end of 2020, collectively investing a few
hundred million dollars in labor and equipment. For many of the world’s largest
businesses, private 5G will likely become the preferred choice, especially for
industrial environments such as manufacturing plants, logistics centers and
ports.
Meet your new colleague, a robot
Of the almost 1 million robots Deloitte expects to be sold for
enterprise use in 2020, just over half of them will be professional service
robots, generating more than US$16 billion in revenue — 30% more than in 2019.
Professional service robots will pass industrial robots in terms of units in
2020 and revenue in 2021.
Can I have an ad with my content?
Deloitte predicts that global revenue from ad-supported video services
will reach an estimated US$32 billion in 2020. Asia, including China and India,
will lead with $15.5 billion in revenue in 2020, nearly half of the global
total. In China, India and throughout the Asia-Pacific region, ad-supported
video is the dominant model of delivering streaming video to consumers. By
contrast, in the United States, most direct-to-consumer video offerings are
pursuing an ad-free subscription model.
“As major networks and studios continue to launch their own direct-to-consumer streaming services in 2020, competitors will likely scramble to offer content libraries broad enough to both attract and retain customers. There is an opportunity for media and entertainment companies to reaggregate their content libraries with a wide array of offerings — from video, music and gaming services to ad-supported content,” said Kevin Westcott, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. telecommunications, media & entertainment leader. “For telecom providers, on the other hand, the emergence of 5G will offer unprecedented opportunities for companies to grow and achieve new levels of productivity. However, helping shape (and manage) customer expectation regarding its possibilities will be a big challenge in the coming year.”
Terrestrial TV’s surprising staying power
Antenna TV will thrive in 2020 with at least 1.6 billion people
worldwide, representing 450 million households, enjoying some of their TV
viewing via an antenna. Antenna TV will help the global TV industry keep
growing even in the face of falling TV viewing minutes and, in some markets,
increasing numbers of consumers cutting the pay-TV cord.
More insight from Deloitte’s 2020 TMT predictions:
Low-earth orbit satellites soar: By the end of 2020, there will be over 700 satellites in low-earth orbit (LEO) seeking to offer global broadband internet, up from roughly 200 at the end of 2019. These new “mega-constellations” of orbiting broadband stations will potentially add more than 16,000 individual satellites to that count over the coming years.
Give a listen: In 2020, the global audiobook market will grow by 25% to US$5 billion and the global podcasting market will increase by 30% from 2019 to reach US$1.1 billion in 2020, surpassing the US$1 billion mark for the first time.
A smarter smartphone: The smartphone multiplier market (hardware, content, services) will drive US$459 billion of revenue in 2020 alone and will grow between 5 to 10% annually through 2023, lifted by continued robust growth in its largest components. This means that in 2023, the smartphone multiplier market is likely to generate revenues of more than a half-trillion dollars per year.
The workhorse of the internet: Deloitte also predicts the global Content Delivery Network (CDN) market will reach US$14 billion in 2020, up more than 25% from 2019’s estimated US$11 billion. The market will double to US$30 billion by 2025, a compound annual growth rate of more than 16%.
Roll to work: Tens of billions of additional bicycle trips per year will take place in 2022. The increase in bicycling will double the number of regular bicycle users in many major cities around the world where cycling to work is still uncommon. Deloitte predicts a 1 percentage point rise in the proportion of people who bike to work during the three years from 2019 to 2022. Between 2020 and 2023, more than 130 million e-bikes (using all battery technologies) are expected to be sold.
“The rising competition for consumers’ attention across technology, media and entertainment industries means companies that serve these consumers should focus on what matters most in order to succeed,” concluded Dr. Jeff Loucks, managing director, Deloitte LLP and executive director, Deloitte Center for Technology, Media and Telecommunications. “Whether it’s delivering on 5G, offering a streaming service that entertains and does not overwhelm or fulfilling the promise of AI in 2020, consumers will look to companies that demonstrate an understanding of their desires and an urgency for making those desires a reality.”
Now in its 19th year, Deloitte’s annual TMT Predictions provides an outlook on key trends in the technology, media and telecommunications industry sectors worldwide.