Deloitte today released the 19th edition of its “Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions,” which looks at three overarching themes: individual technologies are becoming ever more interconnected and interdependent, increasing their impact and value as a result; smartphones, computers, TVs, enterprise data centers and software, and IoT will drive most of the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) industry’s revenue; and lastly, many previously hyped services and products will finally become a reality in 2020.
“In 2020, we will start to see a canopy effect where industry players will work more closely together as individual technologies like edge artificial intelligence (AI) chips, robots and private 5G become better connected, and promising innovations like low-earth orbit satellites finally come to life,” said Paul Sallomi, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP, global TMT industry leader and U.S. technology sector leader. “This year’s predictions are a helpful guide for TMT business leaders to break through the clutter and understand what to do next in order to help be successful in 2020 and beyond.”
“These disruptive forces will continue to challenge traditional tech, media and telecom companies to keep pace with new-age, digital native companies. Those that can innovate, swiftly bring the latest developments to market and satisfy the demands of increasingly savvy consumers are the ones most likely to be rewarded,” said Sandra Shirai, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. technology, media and telecommunications leader.
AI has the edge
A new generation of edge AI chips will reduce frustrations caused by lack of internet connection on smartphones by bringing AI to the device. Deloitte predicts that in 2020, more than 750 million edge AI chips — chips or parts of chips that perform or accelerate machine learning tasks on-device, rather than in a remote data center — will be sold, and that the edge AI chip market will continue to grow much more quickly than the overall chip market.
Private 5G: Enterprise untethered
Deloitte predicts that more than 100 companies worldwide will begin testing private 5G deployments by the end of 2020, collectively investing a few hundred million dollars in labor and equipment. For many of the world’s largest businesses, private 5G will likely become the preferred choice, especially for industrial environments such as manufacturing plants, logistics centers and ports.
Meet your new colleague, a robot
Of the almost 1 million robots Deloitte expects to be sold for enterprise use in 2020, just over half of them will be professional service robots, generating more than US$16 billion in revenue — 30% more than in 2019. Professional service robots will pass industrial robots in terms of units in 2020 and revenue in 2021.
Can I have an ad with my content?
Deloitte predicts that global revenue from ad-supported video services will reach an estimated US$32 billion in 2020. Asia, including China and India, will lead with $15.5 billion in revenue in 2020, nearly half of the global total. In China, India and throughout the Asia-Pacific region, ad-supported video is the dominant model of delivering streaming video to consumers. By contrast, in the United States, most direct-to-consumer video offerings are pursuing an ad-free subscription model.
“As major networks and studios continue to launch their own direct-to-consumer streaming services in 2020, competitors will likely scramble to offer content libraries broad enough to both attract and retain customers. There is an opportunity for media and entertainment companies to reaggregate their content libraries with a wide array of offerings — from video, music and gaming services to ad-supported content,” said Kevin Westcott, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and U.S. telecommunications, media & entertainment leader. “For telecom providers, on the other hand, the emergence of 5G will offer unprecedented opportunities for companies to grow and achieve new levels of productivity. However, helping shape (and manage) customer expectation regarding its possibilities will be a big challenge in the coming year.”
Terrestrial TV’s surprising staying power
Antenna TV will thrive in 2020 with at least 1.6 billion people worldwide, representing 450 million households, enjoying some of their TV viewing via an antenna. Antenna TV will help the global TV industry keep growing even in the face of falling TV viewing minutes and, in some markets, increasing numbers of consumers cutting the pay-TV cord.
More insight from Deloitte’s 2020 TMT predictions:
Low-earth orbit satellites soar: By the end of 2020, there will be over 700 satellites in low-earth orbit (LEO) seeking to offer global broadband internet, up from roughly 200 at the end of 2019. These new “mega-constellations” of orbiting broadband stations will potentially add more than 16,000 individual satellites to that count over the coming years.
Give a listen: In 2020, the global audiobook market will grow by 25% to US$5 billion and the global podcasting market will increase by 30% from 2019 to reach US$1.1 billion in 2020, surpassing the US$1 billion mark for the first time.
A smarter smartphone: The smartphone multiplier market (hardware, content, services) will drive US$459 billion of revenue in 2020 alone and will grow between 5 to 10% annually through 2023, lifted by continued robust growth in its largest components. This means that in 2023, the smartphone multiplier market is likely to generate revenues of more than a half-trillion dollars per year.
The workhorse of the internet: Deloitte also predicts the global Content Delivery Network (CDN) market will reach US$14 billion in 2020, up more than 25% from 2019’s estimated US$11 billion. The market will double to US$30 billion by 2025, a compound annual growth rate of more than 16%.
Roll to work: Tens of billions of additional bicycle trips per year will take place in 2022. The increase in bicycling will double the number of regular bicycle users in many major cities around the world where cycling to work is still uncommon. Deloitte predicts a 1 percentage point rise in the proportion of people who bike to work during the three years from 2019 to 2022. Between 2020 and 2023, more than 130 million e-bikes (using all battery technologies) are expected to be sold.
“The rising competition for consumers’ attention across technology, media and entertainment industries means companies that serve these consumers should focus on what matters most in order to succeed,” concluded Dr. Jeff Loucks, managing director, Deloitte LLP and executive director, Deloitte Center for Technology, Media and Telecommunications. “Whether it’s delivering on 5G, offering a streaming service that entertains and does not overwhelm or fulfilling the promise of AI in 2020, consumers will look to companies that demonstrate an understanding of their desires and an urgency for making those desires a reality.”
Now in its 19th year, Deloitte’s annual TMT Predictions provides an outlook on key trends in the technology, media and telecommunications industry sectors worldwide.
Deloitte Shares Insights on the Libra Project
Deloitte today published its viewpoint on the Libra Project, a payment tool that seeks to facilitate a more connected global payment system, remove inefficiency in global money movement and commerce, and foster financial inclusion and economic participation. At the center of the Libra Project is the Libra — a digital asset with potential global reach.
The Libra Project is a bold new proposition designed to create foundational financial infrastructure with potential unprecedented scale and reach that would uniquely differentiate Libra.
The Project’s governing body, the Libra Association and its members, are part of a larger ecosystem of merchants, users, developers, financial institutions among others, who will likely be pivotal in making the Project successful.
The current efforts of the Project reflect an attempt to set up an inclusive, and transparent collaboration across many jurisdictions. The proactive attempt at regulatory and political scrutiny of the Libra initiative has created awareness and momentum in the form of dialogue and pushbacks around the role of digital assets in the global economy.
Governing the Coin: WEF Announces Global Consortium for Digital Currency Governance
Following extensive consultation with the global community, the World Economic Forum announced today the Global Consortium for Digital Currency Governance. Digital currencies are often cited as a tool for financial inclusion, but this opportunity can be realized only when paired with good governance.
This is the first initiative to bring together leading companies, financial institutions, government representatives, technical experts, academics, international organizations, NGOs and members of the Forum’s communities on a global level. To tackle the challenge ahead, an international, multistakeholder approach with the public and private sectors working alongside civil society is needed.
This consortium will focus on solutions for a fragmented regulatory system. Efficiency, speed, inter-operability, inclusivity and transparency will be at the heart of this initiative. It will call for innovative regulatory approaches to achieve these goals and build trust. A set of guiding principles will be co-designed to support public and private actors exploring the opportunities that digital currencies present.
“Digital currency, a cross-cutting topic that requires input across sectors, functions, and geographies, is a key area of interest for the Forum,” said Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum. “Building on our long history of public-private cooperation, we hope that hosting this consortium will catalyse the conversations necessary to inform a robust framework of governance for global digital currencies.”
“Any evaluation of digital currencies should consider both policy and business objectives, as well as the unique circumstances that face different economies around the world, in order to fully evaluate their risks and benefits,” said Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. “Bringing together diverse perspectives through this consortium will allow for this holistic review. In order to achieve this, we need the public and private sector to collaborate.”
“While digital currencies offer wide possibilities, these have to be assessed against the fundamental objectives of economic advancement and shared prosperity,” said Patrick Ngugi Njoroge, Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya. “Global governance of the diverse initiatives provides greater assurance of this outcome.”
“Governance is the core pillar of any form of digital currency,” said Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England. “It is critical that any framework on digital currencies ensures security, efficiency and legitimacy of payments while ensuring fair and open competition. We welcome the World Economic Forum’s platform to help develop a robust governance framework for inclusion through digital currencies.”
“We are exploring the potential that properly-regulated digital currencies hold for cheaper and faster cross-border payments, financial inclusion, and rooting out illicit finance,” said Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Senior Minister and Chairman, Monetary Authority of Singapore. “This dialogue between public and private sector players is now essential, so we find the right roles for each in realizing this potential.”
“We are watching closely as digital currencies increasingly become an area of focus around the world,” said Eric Parrado, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank. “They may unlock new opportunities for efficiency and inclusion, but this can only happen with the appropriate infrastructure and guardrails.”
“The release of digital currencies will have far-reaching implications, from domestic financial stability to international trade,” said Rania A. Al-Mashat, Minister of International Cooperation, Egypt. “As such, it is imperative that efforts to regulate digital currencies are well-informed, collaborative, and global in nature.”
“Building on our collaboration around the World Economic Forum’s Central Bank Digital Currency Toolkit, we are eager to continue exploring the pillars of well-informed approaches to digital currency through this consortium,” said Rasheed Al Maraj, Governor of the Central Bank of Bahrain.
“Having witnessed firsthand technology leapfrog East and West African financial markets forward over the last decade, we are excited that this initiative will bring leaders from around the world to share best practices and will work on truly global policy recommendations,” said Elizabeth Rossiello, Chief Executive Officer of AZA Finance.
“We welcome the dialogue the World Economic Forum is facilitating about digital currencies,” said David Marcus, Head of Calibra, Facebook, Libra Board Member. “We agree that good regulation is important for the success and safe adoption of digital currency platforms and are looking forward to continue to engage in this constructive conversation.”
“Digital currencies have the potential to improve access to financial markets, but proper oversight and governance are required,” said Rob Heyvaert, Founder and Managing Partner of Motive Partners. “The World Economic Forum is uniquely placed to bring together the private and public sectors to discuss these issues and tackle the challenges ahead.”
“Digital currencies are a tremendous opportunity to make the financial system more accessible and fair,” said Neha Narula, Director, Digital Currency Initiative, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Creating an inclusive, integrated global digital currency system requires dialogue across stakeholders ranging from finance ministers to open source developers, and the World Economic Forum is in an ideal position to facilitate this important conversation.
“Trust is needed in this space now more than ever,” said Joseph Thompson, Chief Executive Officer of AID:Tech. “Creating new economic opportunities and a paradigm shift in how technology is used can benefit all societies. What we need now is multistakeholder cooperation that is anchored in principles of social justice.”
“It’s rare that such an important global organization takes into consideration the context of developing countries in the application of Fourth Industrial Revolution technology to achieve the SDGs,” said Maria Antonia Arroyo, Principal of the Ignite Impact Fund. “Stablecoin is an important development that, if properly implemented and responsible to the concerns of civil society, will be effective at universal financial inclusion.”
“New technologies, like blockchain, have helped catalyze a revolution in the mechanics of money,” said Joseph Lubin, Founder of ConsenSys. “We applaud the efforts by the WEF in actively researching digital currencies, including those that are blockchain-based, as a means to foster innovation but also ensure that central banks can maintain their role as stewards of the economy. The future of money is digital and central banks and the public sector have a crucial part to play in ensuring that this future is sustainable, inclusive and positive for society.”
This initiative builds on work done by the Forum over the past year, convening a global community of central banks to co-design a policy framework for the adoption of digital currencies. The Forum’s Global Technology Governance Summit will take place in San Francisco from 21-22 April. Governance of digital currency will be a core pillar.
Multistakeholder Mobilization to Reinforce Cyber Resilience in Global Aviation
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is transforming the way airlines and airports do business. The advancement of technologies such as artificial intelligence and internet of things is increasing operational efficiency, but the digital nature of these technologies makes them intrinsically vulnerable to cyberattacks.
Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure have become the new normal across sectors such as transportation. Globally, their potential cost could be up to $90 trillion in net economic impact by 2030, if cybersecurity efforts do not keep pace with growing interconnectedness, according to the Atlantic Council and the Zurich Insurance Group, among others.
In Advancing Cyber Resilience in Aviation: An Industry Analysis, the World Economic Forum initiative on Building Cyber Resilience in the Aviation Industry aims to define and address some of the salient systemic challenges confronting this industry by:
Increasing awareness and understanding of cyber risks related to the adoption of emerging technologies, and the impact on critical systems
Fostering collaboration across the aviation industry to define a common understanding and approach to risk management that is holistic, risk-based and aligned across the various entities of the aviation industry ecosystem
Helping aviation stakeholders to make informed – hence better – decisions related to cyber risks
Developing an industry-wide approach to cyber resilience with a multistakeholder community in alignment and collaboration with the ICAO Secretariat Study Group on Cybersecurity (SSGC), industry associations and national authorities
Creating market incentives to prioritize capital investment for cybersecurity and resilience
To advance and help build cyber resilience in the aviation industry, the Forum has mobilized a community of experts and key stakeholders from international organizations (International Civil Aviation Organization, Eurocontrol), government entities (European Union Aviation Safety Agency, UK Civil Aviation Authority, Israel National Cyber Directorate), private-sector organizations (aviation, ICT and insurance sectors) and trade associations (International Air Transport Association, Airport Council International and the Industrial Internet Consortium) to identify challenges and initiatives spearheaded by government and industry entities to enable the development of an aligned global approach.
“The Forum offers a unique platform to bridge and strengthen industry and government collaboration globally to define a joint approach to informing key stakeholders, addressing the most salient challenges and creating a more secure and cyber-resilient ecosystem,” said Georges De Moura, Head of Industry Solutions, Centre for Cybersecurity at the World Economic Forum.
“Abundant broadly-accepted government and industry standards for cybersecurity fall short of what is required to ensure effective defence against cyberattacks in aviation: a common understanding of systemic risks and synchronized consistent quantitative methods for cyber-risk management,” said Karime Kuri Tiscareno, Project Lead, IoT, Robotics and Smart Cities, at the World Economic Forum.
“Our ongoing strategic partnership with the World Economic Forum ensures that we can support the aviation sector to mitigate any potential harm and foster a stronger cyber resilience culture across the sector. The launch of this report is the first phase in developing a common approach with the aviation industry to develop effective cyber risk management, and to impart this knowledge across other sectors,” said Adam Garrard, Global Head of Corporate Risk and Broking, Willis Towers Watson.
A number of requirements, standards and approaches are currently being implemented to assess, manage and mitigate cyber risk, but action and practical solutions must be accelerated to ensure a prosperous, digitalized and cyber-resilient aviation industry.
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