Connect with us

Reports

Sharper Focus Needed on Domestic Reforms in Russia Amid Weaker Global Outlook

Published

on

After a weak performance in the first half of 2019, economic growth in Russia picked up in the third quarter to 1.7 percent, helped by monetary easing, faster public spending and some one-off effects according to the World Bank’s latest Russia Economic Report (#42 in the series).

The outlook for Russia comes as global growth weakened substantially in 2019, reflecting a slowdown in industrial activity and global trade. Slowing external demand and the oil production cuts Russia agreed with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), weighed on the country’s export performance. Crude oil prices fell 14 percent in the January-September 2019, reflecting the downturn in the world economy. Growth is expected to pick up to 1.6 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021. National projects are expected to contribute about 0.2 to 0.3 pp to GDP growth in 2021.

“Domestically, relatively tight monetary policy in the first half of 2019, weak real disposable-income dynamics due to higher inflation on the back of the VAT rate hike, and a slow start in the implementation of national projects dampened growth in 2019,” said Renaud Seligmann, World Bank Country Director in the Russian Federation. “A less restrictive monetary policy and increased spending on the national projects is expected to help foster growth.”

The report also suggests that the moderate poverty rate is expected to continue to decline in 2019 and through 2021, although the report urges the government to continue monitoring the needs of the most vulnerable Russians. Increasing the existing means-tested programs and expanding their reach would help to reach the goal of reducing poverty by half by 2024.

Unemployment – at 4.5 percent – has been declining and stays at historic lows. The Russian banking sector has been largely stable; however, credit expansion has been uneven, with retail lending leading this expansion. To mitigate potential risks to financial stability from the unsecured consumer lending segment, the Central Bank of Russia has been gradually introducing regulatory measures to curb household lending.

This year, the Report also examines the wealth of Russia as a nation, by comprehensively measuring produced capital, natural capital, human capital, and net foreign assets.

“The emerging findings indicate that the typical Russian citizen was 1.8 times wealthier in 2017 than in 2000 and at around 7 percent, Russia’s return on wealth is similar to upper middle and high-income countries but lower than that of certain Eastern European countries,” said Apurva Sanghi, World Bank’s Lead Economist for Russia. “We also see that the human capital, at 46 percent, comprises the largest share of wealth in Russia, with the natural capital share, standing at 20 percent. As a rough approximation, we estimate that Russia’s forests provide annual absorption of about 640 million tons of CO2 equivalent.”

The report also finds that despite its significant growth, Russia’s human capital wealth per capita is one-fifth the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) average and at current rates, Russia would only catch up after almost 100 years. Russia’s forests play an important carbon absorption role and underscore Russia’s importance as an ecological global donor. However, the country’s large share of carbon-based wealth faces increased risk due to future price uncertainty and large-scale attempts at global decarbonization. Mitigating the risks of such stranded assets will require Russia to diversify its wealth portfolio away from its fossil fuel sector and towards other productive capital, cautions the report.

Continue Reading
Comments

Reports

65% of Adults Think Race, Ethnicity or National Origin Affects Job Opportunities

Published

on

A recent Ipsos-World Economic Forum survey has found that 65% of all adults believe that, in their country, someone’s race, ethnicity, or national origin influences their employment opportunities. When considering their own race, ethnicity, or national origin, more than one-third say it has impacted their personal employment opportunities.

The online survey was conducted between 22 January and 5 February 2021, among more than 20,000 adults in 27 countries. It also reveals that 60% of adults think that someone’s race, ethnicity, or national origin plays a role in education opportunities, access to housing, and access to social services.

As Black History Month in the United States draws to a close, awareness of the impacts of race, ethnicity and national origin on opportunities in life is exceptionally high. It follows a tumultuous year when the pandemic put inequality into the spotlight, and events in the US sparked international protests as long-simmering, systemic racial inequities came to the forefront.

Of those surveyed, 46% say the events of the past year have increased differences in opportunities as well as access to housing, education, employment and/or social services in their country. In comparison, 43% say the events have had no impact on differences and 12% say they have decreased differences.

About 60% of respondents in Latin America, Spain and South Africa, and nearly half in France, Italy, Malaysia, Japan, Sweden, Belgium and the US say recent events have increased race, ethnicity, or national origin-based differences in opportunities in their country, compared to only about one in three in Germany, Poland and Saudi Arabia, one in four in China, and one in seven in Russia.

Perceptions versus the reported personal experience of inequality also vary significantly in countries. Compared with the 27-country average for all four types of opportunities measured, several countries stand out.

Continue Reading

Reports

‘Industry 4.0’ tech for post-COVID world, is driving inequality

Published

on

Developing countries must embrace ground-breaking technologies that have been a critical tool in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic, or else face even greater inequalities than before, UN economic development  experts at UNCTAD said on Thursday.

“Very few countries create the technologies that drive this revolution – most of them are created in China and the US – but all countries will be affected by it”, said UNCTAD’s Shamika Sirimanne, head of Division on Technology and Logistics. “Almost none of the developing countries we studied is prepared for the consequences.”

The appeal, which is highlighted in a new UNCTAD report, relates to all things digital and connective, so-called “Industry 4.0” or “frontier technologies”, that include artificial intelligence, big data, blockchain, 5G, 3D printing, robotics, drones, nanotechnology and solar energy.

Gene editing, another fast-evolving sector, has demonstrated its worth in the last year, with the accelerated development of new coronavirus vaccines.

Drone aid

In developing countries, digital tools can be used to monitor ground water contamination, deliver medical supplies to remote communities via drones, or track diseases using big data, said UNCTAD’s Sirimanne.

But “most of these examples remain at pilot level, without ever being scaled-up to reach those most in need: the poor. To be successful, technology deployment must fulfil the five As: availability, affordability, awareness, accessibility, and the ability for effective use.”

Income gap widening

With an estimated market value of $350 billion today, the array of emerging digital solutions for life after COVID is likely to be worth over $3 trillion by 2025 – hence the need for developing countries to invest in training and infrastructure to be part of it, Sirimanne maintained.

“Most Industry 4.0 technologies that are being deployed in developed countries save labour in routine tasks affecting mid-level skill jobs. They reward digital skills and capital”, she said, pointing to the significant increase in the market value of the world’s leading digital platforms during the pandemic.

Innovation dividends

“The largest gains have been made by Amazon, Apple and Tencent,” Sirimanne continued. “This is not surprising given that a very small number of very large firms provided most of the digital solutions that we have used to cope with various lockdowns and travel restrictions.”

Expressing optimism about the potential for developing countries to be carried along with the new wave of digitalisation rather than be swamped by it, the UNCTAD economist downplayed concerns that increasing workforce automation risked putting people in poorer countries out of a job.

This is because “not all tasks in a job are automated, and, most importantly, that new products, tasks, professions, and economic activities are created throughout the economy”, Sirimanne said.

‘Job polarization’

“The low wages …for skills in developing countries plus the demographic trends will not create economic incentives to replace labour in manufacturing – not yet.”

According to UNCTAD, over the past two decades, the expansion in high and low-wage jobs – a phenomenon known as “job polarization” – has led to only a single-digit reduction in medium-skilled jobs in developed and developing countries (of four and six per cent respectively).

“So, it is expected that low and lower-middle income developing countries will be less exposed to potential negative effects of AI and robots on job polarization”, Sirimanne explained.

Nonetheless, the UN trade and development body cautioned that there appeared to be little sign of galloping inequality slowing down in the new digital age, pointing to data indicating that the income gap between developed and developing countries is $40,749 in real terms today, up from $17,000 in 1970.

Continue Reading

Reports

Greater Innovation Critical to Driving Sustained Economic Recovery in East Asia

Published

on

Innovation is critical to productivity growth and economic progress in developing East Asia in a rapidly changing world, according to a new World Bank report launched today.

Countries in developing East Asia have an impressive record of sustained growth and poverty reduction.  But slowing productivity growth, uncertainties in global trade, and technological advances are increasing the need to transition to new and better modes of production to sustain economic performance.

To support policy makers in meeting this challenge, The Innovation Imperative for Developing East Asia examines the state of innovation in the region, analyzes the key constraints firms face in innovating, and lays out an agenda for action to spur innovation-led growth.

A large body of evidence links innovation to higher productivity,” said Victoria Kwakwa, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific. “The COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, along with the fast-evolving global environment, have raised urgency for governments in the region to promote greater innovation through better policies.

While developing East Asia is home to several high-profile innovators, data presented in the report show that most countries in the region (except China) innovate less than would be expected given their per capita income levels. Most firms operate far from the technological frontier. And the region is falling behind the advanced economies in the breadth and intensity of new technology use.

“Aside from some noteworthy examples, the vast majority of firms in developing East Asia are currently not innovating,” said Xavier Cirera, a lead author of the report. “A broad-based model of innovation is thus needed – that supports a large mass of firms in adopting new technologies, while also enabling more-sophisticated firms to undertake projects at the cutting edge.”

The report identifies several factors that impede innovation in the region, including inadequate information on new technologies, uncertainty about returns to innovation projects, weak firm capabilities, insufficient staff skills, and limited financing options. Moreover, countries’ innovation policies and institutions are often not aligned with firms’ capabilities and needs.

To spur innovation, the report argues that countries need to reorient policy to promote diffusion of existing technologies, not just invention; support innovation in the services sectors, not just manufacturing; and strengthen firms’ innovation capabilities. Taking this broader view of innovation policy will be critical to enabling productivity gains among a broader swath of firms in the region.

“It is important for governments in the region to support innovation in services, given their rising importance in these economies – not only for better service quality but increasingly as key inputs for manufacturing,” said Andrew Mason, also a lead author of the report.

Countries also need to strengthen key complementary factors for innovation, including workers’ skills and instruments to finance innovation projects. Building stronger links between national research institutions and firms will also be critical to fostering innovation-led growth in the region.

Continue Reading

Publications

Latest

Americas22 mins ago

Joe Biden and his first contradictory foreign policy moves

Those who thought that the elderly American President, formerly Barack Obama’s vice-President, would step into the international limelight as the...

Economy2 hours ago

Iran has an integral role to play in Russian-South Asian connectivity

Iran is geostrategically positioned to play an integral role in Russian-South Asian connectivity. President Putin told the Valdai Club during...

International Law6 hours ago

Why states undermined their sovereignty by signing NPT?

Nuclear weapons are known as brawny and cataclysmic weapons. The source of the energy of such weapons is fission and...

Environment9 hours ago

Duck conservation takes flight in Jamaica

On January 20, 2021, the day of the inauguration of American president Joe Biden, two ducks named “Joe” and “Kamala”...

Finance10 hours ago

Estonia provides good support to jobseekers, but does not reach everybody

The Estonian labour market has outperformed most EU countries after the global financial crisis. The employment rate of people in...

Energy News12 hours ago

New EU energy labels applicable from 1 March 2021

To help EU consumers cut their energy bills and carbon footprint, a brand new version of the widely-recognised EU energy...

Energy News14 hours ago

E-Boda-Bodas: a promising day for electric transportation in East Africa

Forty-nine motorcycles made little noise but raised much interest in Nairobi’s Karura Forest this morning, as the UN Environment Programme...

Trending