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Entrepreneurs of the World Rise: 2020 Strategies

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A billion new entrepreneurs are on the march; young and old, big and small, from rich nations and from poor nations, this time most entrepreneurs all over the world have same access to latest technologies and similar global access to markets. Only the smart nations with smart cities with smart entrepreneurial management will be able to understand how to harness such mega forces. How will they create local grassroots prosperity and solid midsize economies across their nation? A new world of entrepreneurial freedom is emerging as an alternate to old-perpetual-economic-slavery-working-model.  

What occupies the world today; Brexit fiascos of once the mighty British Empires, American Impeachment circus of once mighty global leader and the rest are wars of sorts, the list can be long, but the global masses tired and treasuries empty…entrepreneurial revival is a new mighty frontier.  The national mobilization of entrepreneurialism of talented citizenry on platform economies demands understanding of the new definitions and answering some serious questions. When restless citizenry starts becoming visible, populism becomes louder and separatism issues as new fears urgently needed to create grassroots prosperity are new agendas and strategies.

Nothing more important than entrepreneurialism must fill such vacuum as the art of national mobilization of entrepreneurialism on digital platforms economies turns into a science of the day.

Re-definitions of midsize economy: The optimization of small medium enterprises of the nation to quadruple exportability and innovative excellence performance are new frontiers where battalions of entrepreneurs allowed to bounce all across 200 nations and show case their talents, goods and services to enjoy the powers of the brand of Canada and its people. The new thought leadership on new global age skills on national deployments becomes a test.

Re-definitions of work: work of future now determined by algorithms, elimination of white-collar expertise would morph towards entrepreneurialism as smart work for very smart worker not only erases 9-5 rat races, creating new living styles and new intellectualism; how will Canada mobilize working citizenry to adopt such dramatic changes?

Re-definitions of work-space: When workless, officeless, jobless workers start leaving downtown office buildings, corporate hierarchies morph, impacting downtown economies and redefining their purpose against suburbia. New styles of consumerism, distribution starts confusing future of smart cities starts bouncing amidst super-smart-living. Now Canada as a hot spot to such transformations offering best destination for living, foreign investments and opportunities; what will Canada table as solid options to highlight growth and stability?

Re-definitions of management: When free technologies replace senior and middle management impacting social adjustments, a hyper productive inter-connected-age with new styles of debates and engagements will force new state of mind, how will Canada identify, organize one million small and midsize enterprises as part of Platform Economy, showcase them in bright colors creating bounce with 200 other nations, where already some new billion other entrepreneurs are headed?

Re-definitions of time: now business operation time is 24x7x365 how will these new cultural-realities start overtaking old-style timelines and lazy calendars slots how do you train masses to work much less but with more productive technologies. New habits merge with new occupations optimizing with talented hobbies and here nouveau entrepreneurialism starts taking shape.  Ease of processing and unlimited global access becomes the new and long awaited arena for women entrepreneurs to shine. The human productivity, juxtaposed with hyper accelerated automation will also create massive boredom and mental chaos. 

Re-definition of digital-divide: Today globally speaking digital divide is now mental-divide.These issues demand new thinking and new answers. Such vacuums cannot allow filling with divisive politics or non-stop media rhetoric but with constant high quality contents and pragmatic global-age entrepreneurial solutions and grassroots prosperity ideas. Classicism of Entrepreneurialism proves that by nature entrepreneurism is diverse, tolerant and a real local community builder.

Re-definitions of national transformation:  This is a fact, all over the world Public-Sectors and large bureaucracies for having a different mandate have proven again and again for not being entrepreneurial in action and for that reason alone, entrepreneurs much like mushrooms in the forest grow at random, but now on massive digital platform economies this is now like organized mushroom farming. How does something like this translates to a nation where majority is youth and anxious to find grassroots prosperity. Authoritative understandings, mobilization with deployment skills are the prerequisites. 

The Entrepreneurial Rebellions:

Understanding entrepreneurial knowledge: The superiority of the message embedded in the art and science of entrepreneurialism clearly written in the language and symbology of ‘tacit knowledge’ and should not be the deterrent for academic or government agencies. Rather this is an open invitation to bold and open dialogue.

FACTS: Classroom education is ‘explicit knowledge’ like bookkeeping, something that can be written. Entrepreneurialism is ‘tacit knowledge’ like riding a bike, something that can only be practiced.

Understanding classicism of entrepreneurialism: The advanced study of classicism of entrepreneurialism brings us closer to global age mobilization and deployments of entrepreneurial as a new phenomenon. This is new thinking that advances and mobilizes masses of entrepreneurs, impacting grassroots prosperity that captured by superpower-technology-platforms.

Understanding mobilization of entrepreneurialism: Many nations around the world have tried very hard to create entrepreneurialism but frequently failed.  However, these same nations were able to create well trained armies and high-ranking officers because they all trained in tactical battlefield engagements and by veterans from the real battlefields. Soldiers do not draw pictures of battlefields on whiteboards and run around with water pistols. They practice real situations in boot camp fashion and live the battles.

Understanding Platform Economies:

Alibaba records $38 Billion of sales within 24 hours November 11th 2019: Around the world, currently, there are 100 nations with less than $38 Billion dollars in annual GDP. Imagine if this single company performed at the same rate for next 365 days, it would equal to annual GDP of Japan, Germany, India, France, UK and Canada all combined. Bravo Alibaba, well done, the world in shock is now fondling in own toolboxes looking for a screwdriver.

Nations without digital platforms in 2020 would look like nations without Internet in the nineties.

Which nations are ready? Ready to explore how national mobilization of entrepreneurialism on platform economies can uplift local grassroots prosperity, and if there are enough trade-groups, Chambers of Commerce, Trade Associations anxious to play on these AI centric digitally advanced and globally friendly market-places? Outside a miniscule number, around the world, out-dated trade-groups are in rapid transformation so they too would become shiny butterflies for the new global-age. Which nations are open to national debates?Can a nation declare top priority to discover its hidden and untapped talents of their citizenry? Can it demonstrate superior skills to mobilize small and medium businesses across the nation? Can it adopt continuous self-learning to foster occupational superiority for the nation? Can it isolate trade-wars and prioritize internal skills-wars as national agenda?  Can it create national debates and bring trade-groups all under one umbrella?

Fact: The world can easily absorb unlimited exportable ideas in unlimited vertical markets. Fact: The well-designed innovative ideas are worthy of such quadrupled volumes. Fact: The entrepreneurial and dormant talents of a nation are capable of such tasks. Fact: The new global age skills, knowledge and execution are now the missing links

Three steps for Midsize Economy to advance on grassroots prosperity:

ONE: Identify 1000 to 100,000 small and midsize entrepreneurs within a nation, and create a national agenda to quadruple their performance on innovative excellence and exportability. Caution–this is not to be confused with old out-dated-old-data rather it requires the assembly of ultra-modern-digital and current-profiles of individual midsize enterprises within a nation.

TWO: Deploy digitization of top national trade associations and chambers of commences to upgrade to world-class digital platforms so that their entire membership can skate nationally and globally showcasing their goods and services. Caution–this is not to be confused with old websites with odd text and emails; this is more like LinkedIn format and ten times more richer information with colorful and highly interactive platforms.

THREE: Study Expothon Strategy and how over a decade it has perfected the model; observe how Worldbank also adopted similar approach with their well executed Econothon project. Expect some more serious deployments in this arena. Caution– this is not to be confused with a single award night; this is all about outstanding performance of the remaining 364 days of the year each filled with active and daily engagements.

Serious Questions: Was there ever a senior level national debate and authoritative discussion on such deep and specialized integrations? In the meantime outside minuscule percentages there are some 10,000 Chambers of Commerce of the world and 100,000 National Trade Associations uplifting thinking when it comes to advanced level digital platforms but still afraid about their future roles and return on investment on membership fees. They will all shine under new flags of creating new global bounce and prosperity.

By all means, such transformations are no easy task; but however, they are less dependent on new-funding but are heavily dependent on global-age-execution and strategic agenda

How to improve current status of the national issues: Nations are already flooded with massive innovations, but lack massive commercialization. Nations have over certifications and degrees but seriously lack business directions. Nations have empty incubators and exhausted accelerators like real estate projects. Nations have random economic development programs but often without mega punch. Focused and timely Round-tables and Cabinet Level discussions are always good starting points.

2020 is a great start for tabling pragmatic solutions and presenting a special series of exclusive programs on uplifting midsize economies of any nation so long there are large numbers of small and midsize enterprises. Special announcements on exclusive events and large scale digital platforms under planning announced very soon. Study very deeply on Google…

Copyright 2015-2019 Naseem Javed

Naseem Javed is a corporate philosopher, Chairman of Expothon Worldwide; a Canadian Think tank focused on National Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism Protocols on Platform Economy and exportability solutions now gaining global attention. His latest book; Alpha Dreamers; the five billions connected who will change the world.

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Economy

Rebalancing Act: China’s 2022 Outlook

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Authors: Ibrahim Chowdhury, Ekaterine T. Vashakmadze and Li Yusha

After a strong rebound last year, the world economy is entering a challenging 2022. The advanced economies have recovered rapidly thanks to big stimulus packages and rapid progress with vaccination, but many developing countries continue to struggle.

The spread of new variants amid large inequalities in vaccination rates, elevated food and commodity prices, volatile asset markets, the prospect of policy tightening in the United States and other advanced economies, and continued geopolitical tensions provide a challenging backdrop for developing countries, as the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report published today highlights.

The global context will also weigh on China’s outlook in 2022, by dampening export performance, a key growth driver last year. Following a strong 8 percent cyclical rebound in 2021, the World Bank expects growth in China to slow to 5.1 percent in 2022, closer to its potential — the sustainable growth rate of output at full capacity.

Indeed, growth in the second half of 2021 was below this level, and so our forecast assumes a modest amount of policy loosening. Although we expect momentum to pick up, our outlook is subject to domestic in addition to global downside risks. Renewed domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, including the new Omicron variant and other highly transmittable variants, could require more broad-based and longer-lasting restrictions, leading to larger disruptions in economic activity. A severe and prolonged downturn in the real estate sector could have significant economy-wide reverberations.

In the face of these headwinds, China’s policymakers should nonetheless keep a steady hand. Our latest China Economic Update argues that the old playbook of boosting domestic demand through investment-led stimulus will merely exacerbate risks in the real estate sector and reap increasingly lower returns as China’s stock of public infrastructure approaches its saturation point.

Instead, to achieve sustained growth, China needs to stick to the challenging path of rebalancing its economy along three dimensions: first, the shift from external demand to domestic demand and from investment and industry-led growth to greater reliance on consumption and services; second, a greater role for markets and the private sector in driving innovation and the allocation of capital and talent; and third, the transition from a high to a low-carbon economy.

None of these rebalancing acts are easy. However, as the China Economic Update points out, structural reforms could help reduce the trade-offs involved in transitioning to a new path of high-quality growth.

First, fiscal reforms could aim to create a more progressive tax system while boosting social safety nets and spending on health and education. This would help lower precautionary household savings and thereby support the rebalancing toward domestic consumption, while also reducing income inequality among households.

Second, following tightening anti-monopoly provisions aimed at digital platforms, and a range of restrictions imposed on online consumer services, the authorities could consider shifting their attention to remaining barriers to market competition more broadly to spur innovation and productivity growth.

A further opening-up of the protected services sector, for example, could improve access to high-quality services and support the rebalancing toward high-value service jobs (a special focus of the World Bank report). Eliminating remaining restrictions on labor mobility by abolishing the hukou, China’s system of household registration, for all urban areas would equally support the growth of vibrant service economies in China’s largest cities.

Third, the wider use of carbon pricing, for example, through an expansion of the scope and tightening of the emissions trading system rules, as well power sector reforms to encourage the penetration and nationwide trade and dispatch of renewables, would not only generate environmental benefits but also contribute to China’s economic transformation to a more sustainable and innovation-based growth model.

In addition, a more robust corporate and bank resolution framework would contribute to mitigating moral hazards, thereby reducing the trade-offs between monetary policy easing and financial risk management. Addressing distortions in the access to credit — reflected in persistent spreads between private and State borrowers — could support the shift to more innovation-driven, private sector-led growth.

Productivity growth in China during the past four decades of reform and opening-up has been private-sector led. The scope for future productivity gains through the diffusion of modern technologies and practices among smaller private companies remains large. Realizing these gains will require a level playing field with State-owned enterprises.

While the latter have played an instrumental role during the pandemic to stabilize employment, deliver key services and, in some cases, close local government budget gaps, their ability to drive the next phase of growth is questionable given lower profits and productivity growth rates in the past.

In 2022, the authorities will face a significantly more challenging policy environment. They will need to remain vigilant and ready to recalibrate financial and monetary policies to ensure the difficulties in the real estate sector don’t spill over into broader economic distress. Recent policy loosening suggests the policymakers are well aware of these risks.

However, in aiming to keep growth on a steady path close to potential, they will need to be similarly alert to the risk of accumulating ever greater levels of corporate and local government debt. The transition to high-quality growth will require economic rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green investments. If the past is any guide to the future, the reliance on markets and private sector initiative is China’s best bet to achieve the required structural change swiftly and at minimum cost.

First published on China Daily, via World Bank

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The US Economic Uncertainty: Bitcoin Faces a Test of Resilience?

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Is inflation harmful? Is inflation here to stay? And are people really at a loss? These and countless other questions along the same lines dominated the first half of 2021. Many looked for alternative investments in the national bourse, while others adopted unorthodox streams. Yes, I’m talking about bitcoin. The crypto giant hit records after records since the pandemic made us question the fundamentals of our conventional economic policies. And while inflation was never far behind in registering its own mark in history, the volatility in the crypto stream was hard to deny: swiping billions of dollars in mere days in April 2021. The surge came again, however. And it will keep on coming; I have no doubt. But whether it is the end of the pandemic or the early hues of a new shade, the tumultuous relationship between traditional economic metrics and the championed cryptocurrency is about to get more interesting.

The job market is at the most confusing crossroads in recent times. The hiring rate in the US has slowed down in the past two months, with employers adding only 199,000 jobs in December. The numbers reveal that this is the second month of depressing job additions compared to an average of more than 500,000 jobs added each month throughout 2021. More concerning is that economists had predicted an estimated 400,000 jobs additions last month. Nonetheless, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the unemployment rate has ticked down to 3.9% – the first time since the pre-pandemic level of 3.5% reported in February 2020. Analytically speaking, US employment has returned to pre-pandemic levels, yet businesses are still looking for more employees. The leverage, therefore, lies with the labor: reportedly (on average) every two employees have three positions available.

The ‘Great Resignation,’ a coinage for the new phenomenon, underscores this unique leverage of job selection. Sectors with low-wage positions like retail and hospitality face a labor shortage as people are better-positioned to bargain for higher wages. Thus, while wages are rising, quitting rates are record high simultaneously. According to recent job reports, an estimated 4.5 million workers quit their jobs in November alone. Given that this data got collected before the surge of the Omicron variant, the picture is about to worsen.

While wages are rising, employment is no longer in the dumps. People are quitting but not to invest stimulus cheques. Instead, they are resigning to negotiate better-paying jobs: forcing the businesses to hike prices and fueling inflation. Thus, despite high earnings, the budget for consumption [represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI)] is rising at a rate of 6.8% (reported in November 2021). Naturally, bitcoin investment is not likely to bloom at levels rivaling the last two years. However, a downfall is imminent if inflation persists.

The US Federal Reserve sweats caution about searing gains in prices and soaring wage figures. And it appears that the fed is weighing its options to wind up its asset purchase program and hike interest rates. In March 2020, the fed started buying $40 billion worth of Mortgage-backed securities and $80 billion worth of government bonds (T-bills). However, a 19% increase in average house prices and a four-decade-high level of inflation is more than they bargained. Thus, the fed officials have been rooting for an expedited normalization of the monetary policy: further bolstered by the job reports indicating falling unemployment and rising wages. In recent months, the fed purview has dramatically shifted from its dovish sentiments: expecting no rate hike till 2023 to taper talks alongside three rate hikes in 2022.

Bitcoin now faces a volatile passage in the forthcoming months. While the disappointing job data and Omicron concerns could nudge the ball in its favor, the chances are that a depressive phase is yet to ensue. According to crypto-analysts, the bitcoin is technically oversold i.e. mostly devoid of impulsive investors and dominated by long-term holders. Since November, the bitcoin has dropped from the record high of $69,000 by almost 40%: moving in the $40,000-$41,000 range. Analysts believe that since bitcoin acts as a proxy for liquidity, any liquidity shortage could push the market into a mass sellout. Mr. Alex Krüger, the founder of Aike Capital, a New York-based asset management firm, stated: “Crypto assets are at the furthest end of the risk curve.” He further added: “[Therefore] since they had benefited from the Fed’s “extraordinarily lax monetary policy,” it should suffice to say that they would [also] suffer as an “unexpectedly tighter” policy shifts money into safer asset classes.” In simpler terms, a loose monetary policy and a deluge of stimulus payments cushioned the meteoric rise in bitcoin valuation as a hedge against inflation. That mechanism would also plummet the market with a sudden hawkish shift.

The situation is dire for most industries. Job participation levels are still low as workers are on the sidelines either because of the Omicron concern or lack of child support. In case of a rate hike, businesses would be forced to push against the wages to accommodate affordability in consumer prices. For bitcoin, the investment would stay dormant. However, any inflationary surprises could bring about an early tightening of the policy: spelling doom for the crypto market. The market now expects the job data to worsen while inflation to rise at 7.1% through December in the US inflation data (to be reported on Wednesday). Any higher than the forecasted figure alongside uncertainty imbued by the new variant could spark a downward spiral in bitcoin – probably pushing the asset below the $25000 mark.

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Platform Modernisation: What the US Treasury Sanctions Review Is All About

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Image source: home.treasury.gov

The US Treasury has released an overview of its sanctions policy. It outlines key principles for making the restrictive US measures more effective. The revision of the sanctions policy was announced at the beginning of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The new review can be considered one of the results of this work. At the same time, it is difficult to find signs of qualitative changes in the US administration’s approach to sanctions in the document. Rather, it is about upgrading an existing platform.

Sanctions are understood as economic and financial restrictions that make it possible to harm the enemies of the United States, prevent or hinder their actions, and send them a clear political signal. The text reproduces the usual “behavioural” understanding of sanctions. They are viewed as a means of influencing the behaviour of foreign players whose actions threaten the security or contradict the national interests of the United States. The review also defines the institutional structure of the sanctions policy. According to the document, it includes the Treasury, the State Department, and the National Security Council. The Treasury plays the role of the leading executor of the sanctions policy, and the State Department and the NSS determine the political direction of their application, despite the fact that the State Department itself is also responsible for the implementation of a number of sanctions programmes. This line also includes the Department of Justice, which uses coercive measures against violators of the US sanctions regime.

Interestingly, the Department of Commerce is not mentioned among the institutions. The review focuses only on a specific segment of the sanctions policy that is implemented by the Treasury. However, it is the Treasury that is currently at the forefront of the application of restrictive measures. A significant part of the executive orders of the President of the United States and sanctions laws imply blocking financial sanctions in the form of an asset freeze and a ban on transactions with individuals and organisations. Decrees and laws assign the application of such measures to the Treasury in cooperation with the Department of State and the Attorney General. Therefore, the institutional link mentioned in the review reflects the spirit and letter of a significant array of US regulations concerning sanctions. The Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Industry and Security are responsible for a different segment of the sanctions policy, which does not diminish its importance. Export controls can cause a lot of trouble for individual countries and companies.

Another notable part of the review concerns possible obstacles to the effective implementation of US sanctions. These include, among other things, the efforts of the opponents of the United States to change the global financial architecture, reducing the share of the dollar in the national settlements of both opponents and some allies of the United States.

Indeed, such major powers as Russia and China have seriously considered the risks of being involved in a global American-centric financial system.

The course towards the sovereignty of national financial systems and settlements with foreign countries is largely justified by the risk of sanctions.

Russia, for example, is vigorously pursuing the development of a National Payment System, as well as a Financial Messaging System. There has been a cautious but consistent policy of reducing the share of the dollar in external settlements. China, which has much greater economic potential, is building systems of “internal and external circulation”. Even the European Union has embarked on an increase in the role of the euro, taking into account the risk of secondary sanctions from “third countries”, which are often understood between the lines as the United States.

Digital currencies and new payment technologies also pose a threat to the effectiveness of sanctions. Moreover, here the players can be both large powers and many other states and non-state structures. It is interesting that digital currencies at a certain stage may present a common challenge to the United States, Russia, China, the EU and a number of other countries. After all, they can be used not only to circumvent sanctions, but also, for example, to finance terrorism or in money laundering. However, the review does not mention such common interests.

The text does propose measures to modernise the sanctions policy. The first one is to build sanctions into the broader context of US foreign policy. Sanctions are not important in and of themselves, but as part of a broader palette of policy instruments. The second measure is to strengthen interdepartmental coordination in the application of sanctions in parallel with increased coordination of US sanctions with the actions of American allies. The third measure is a more accurate calibration of sanctions in order to avoid humanitarian damage, as well as damage to American business. The fourth measure is to improve the enforceability and clarity of the sanctions policy. Here we can talk about both the legal uncertainty of some decrees and laws, and about an adequate understanding of the sanctions programmes on the part of business. Finally, fifth is the improvement and development of the Treasury-based sanctions apparatus, including investments in technology, staff training and infrastructure.

All these measures can hardly be called new. Experts have long recommended the use of sanctions in combination with other instruments, as well as improved inter-agency coordination. The coordination of sanctions with allies has escalated due to a number of unilateral steps taken by the Trump Administration, including withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal or sanctions against Nord Stream 2. However, the very importance of such coordination has not been questioned in the past and has even been reflected in American legislation (Iran). The need for a clearer understanding of sanctions policy has also been long overdue. Its relevance is illustrated, among other things, by the large number of unintentional violations of the US sanctions regime by American and foreign businesses. The problem of overcompliance is also relevant, when companies refuse transactions even when they are allowed. The reason is the fear of possible coercive measures by the US authorities. Finally, improving the sanctioning apparatus is also a long-standing topic. In particular, expanding the resources of the Administration in the application of sanctions was recommended by the US Audit Office in a 2019 report.

The US Treasury review suggests that no signs of an easing are foreseen for the key targets of US sanctions. At the same time, American business and its many foreign counterparties can benefit from the modernisation of the US sanctions policy. Legal certainty can reduce excess compliance as well as help avoid associated losses.

From our partner RIAC

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