A new perspective turn in tough relations between two neighbors had a place on November 17, Russia declared returning of three “captured” gunboats to Ukraine and this news was soon confirmed by the Kiev authorities. There was another quite an uprising statement that was made by Putin himself that Russia is ready to resume the supply of natural gas to Ukraine. The news was immediately heard on the world’s political arena what truly made a belief that ‘that’ can surely be a beginning of the minimization of the conflict between Russian Federation and Ukraine as good neighbors as they seemed to be not that long ago. But shall we see that gesture as something well promising or we shall observe that in a quite skeptical way?
With the great beginning from obtaining sovereignty in 1990 Ukraine got extremely prominent blessings such as geopolitically pleasant territory, great natural and human resources , advanced industrial power and very strong educational background. Those factors had to play a key role in formation of a new great power and Ukraine could definitely possess that claim. However after more than a quarter of century outpoured we can observe those dreams in ruins. Governmental incompetence multiplied by corruption did a destructive job and Ukraine’s European-leaning made Russia see that as a tumor what brought to Crimea’s cut and Donbas’s bleeding burnt. When Kyiv wasn’t asked about such a ‘surgery’ Moscow was that doer who anticipated where Ukraine’s European incline could bring to and NATO as a terminal station of that incline was and is the biggest threat to the Kremlin. Ukraine had and apparently still has a great desire to be European directed country and that comes with no doubt, even geographical center of Europe is located in Ukraine but it hasn’t had a place in history for Ukraine to fully enjoy European life and we can admit that open boarders to Europe for Ukrainians has made a blurry vision that the seat around EU’s round table is prepared and waiting for Ukraine to sit on. Logically speaking there are dozens of obstacles and barriers that not only stop but also pull Ukraine back and unfortunately EU’s high requirements are not the most severe problems, America’s help turns to remain a promise that more likely will never come to be present at the epicenter of the crisis as well as Europe’s observers may only confirm the horror of the flames that continue to sting Ukraine. And now when promised aid from the West can’t help we see how ‘Russian new gunboat diplomacy’ gets its place on.
“Gunboat diplomacy” is conventionally termed as a part of imperial diplomacy which aims to subjugate a weaker or a smaller country by the threat of using force. For example ‘Operation Vantage’ or ‘Gaza Flotilla Raid’ where we can observe the implementation of “Gunboat diplomacy” , however in this particular situation Russia’s message contains dual meaning: a good-will gesture and a hidden warning to Ukraine. As the leader of Russia, which has been a great power of Europe for almost 350 years, Putin is sure to understand the implication of diplomacy supported by force. The concept of “New gunboat diplomacy” indicates that vessels get its way home with a further conversation that meets a “Big Stick” holder’s expectations presenting a choice to Ukraine to rethink “Western directions” or observe where “New gunboat diplomacy” has its “old scratches”.
Yet, many claim that this type of diplomatic tactic is nothing new but statement from court that made Russians return the boats, others contradict that with sanctions’ flying colors court couldn’t bring any pressure to aggravate already heavily inflamed situation. “Some not well trained cats don’t know what to do with the mice when they catch them”- How much is that applicable to the situation that happened when Russia returned warships back to Ukraine, was that a goodwill and will that bring any goods? Our history brings rotation all around and that truly reminds the helix. The US has faced an adversity that brought to a dramatic failure in Vietnam War when domestic situation brought a severe movement that made politicians radically change their minds and Washington had to step back. This rough comparison displays the situation that we do observe nowadays on Russian territories where people who were afflicted by sanctions get reductions of daily life quality what was caused by recent economical destabilization. There is an anticipation that this wave will turn into tsunami due to indignation that circulates among Russian citizens who find explanations of this unpleasant situation in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation.
Upcoming summit which is approaching to be on December 3-4 absolutely requires to have a positive face on and unpleasant domestic situation made Moscow act a good neighbor and it is always pleasure to kill a bunch of birds with just one stone. And as there are people who oppose Russia’s aggression there are also those who support and definitely agree with current foreign policy – boats were returned, but they were hollowed out by Russians as Kyiv says. Apparently that’s the sign to redesign them from gun boats into trade ones; what brings us to another inhibitor that characterizes changes of Russia’s behavior is loss of Ukraine’s trade leadership to China in 2019. Even still trade between Russia and Ukraine is remarkably high and even got a rise what definitely meets Kremlin’s interest what underlines that the conflict escalation should get its conclusion.
This actually brings a hope that the situation will be relieved but Kyiv will not have pink glasses on after such a dose of humiliations that fell on Ukraine from Russian side. Even the Kremlin possesses an idea of the minimization of the conflict that indisputably strikes the borders that will undoubtedly take quite a long time for both sides to get disputes docked and current stage is a beginning of a conversation that will apparently display to us new possibilities in crisis resolution. For now the dance of Cossack and Ballerina reminds that homo homini lupus est.
