Africa is set to become increasingly influential in shaping global energy trends over the next two decades as it undergoes the largest process of urbanisation the world has ever seen, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
Africa Energy Outlook 2019, a special in-depth study published today, finds that current policy and investment plans in African countries are not enough to meet the energy needs of the continent’s young and rapidly growing population. Today, 600 million people in Africa do not have access to electricity and 900 million lack access to clean cooking facilities.
The number of people living in Africa’s cities is expected to expand by 600 million over the next two decades, much higher than the increase experienced by China’s cities during the country’s 20-year economic and energy boom. Africa’s overall population is set to exceed 2 billion before 2040, accounting for half of the global increase over that period. These profound changes will drive the continent’s economic growth, infrastructure development and, in turn, energy demand, which is projected to rise 60% to around 1,320 million tonnes of oil equivalent in 2040, based on current policies and plans.
The new report is the IEA’s most comprehensive and detailed work to date on energy across the African continent, with a particular emphasis on sub-Saharan Africa. It includes detailed energy profiles of 11 countries that represent three-quarters of the region’s gross domestic product and energy demand, including Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Kenya and Ghana.
The report makes clear that Africa’s energy future is not predetermined. Current plans would leave 530 million people on the continent still without access to electricity in 2030, falling well short of universal access, a major development goal. But with the right policies, it could reach that target while also becoming the first continent to develop its economy mainly through the use of modern energy sources. Drawing on rich natural resources and advances in technology, the continent could by 2040 meet the energy demands of an economy four times larger than today’s with only 50% more energy.
“Africa has a unique opportunity to pursue a much less carbon-intensive development path than many other parts of the world,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “To achieve this, it has to take advantage of the huge potential that solar, wind, hydropower, natural gas and energy efficiency offer. For example, Africa has the richest solar resources on the planet but has so far installed only 5 gigawatts of solar photovoltaics (PV), which is less than 1% of global capacity.”
If policy makers put a strong emphasis on clean energy technologies, solar PV could become the continent’s largest electricity source in terms of installed capacity by 2040.
Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to correspond well with Africa’s industrial growth drive and need for flexible electricity supply. Today, the share of gas in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy mix is the lowest of any region in the world. But that could be about to change, especially considering the supplies Africa has at its disposal: it is home to more than 40% of global gas discoveries so far this decade, notably in Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania.
Africa’s natural resources aren’t limited to sunshine and other energy sources. It also possesses major reserves of minerals such as cobalt and platinum that are needed in fast-growing clean energy industries.
“Africa holds the key for global energy transitions, as it is the continent with the most important ingredients for producing critical technologies,” Dr Birol said. “For example, the Democratic Republic of the Congo accounts for two-thirds of global production of cobalt, a vital element in batteries, and South Africa produces 70% of the world’s platinum, which is used in hydrogen fuel cells. As energy transitions accelerate, so will demand for those minerals.”
African countries are on the front line when it comes to climate change, meaning the continent’s energy infrastructure planning must be climate resilient.
“Even though Africa has produced only around 2% of the world’s energy-related CO2 emissions to date, its ecosystems already suffer disproportionately from the effects of a changing climate,” Dr Birol said. “They are exposed to increased risks to food, health and economic security.”
By 2040, an additional half a billion people in Africa are expected to live in areas requiring some form of cooling as populations expand and average temperatures increase. Although Africa is expected to experience rapid economic growth over the next two decades, its contribution to global energy-related CO2 emissions rises to just 3% by 2040, based on current policies and plans.
For this report, the IEA developed a new scenario that analyses how the energy sector can spur Africa’s growth ambitions while also delivering key sustainable development goals by 2030, including full access to electricity and clean cooking facilities. The Africa Case is based on Agenda 2063, African leaders’ own strategic framework for the continent’s economic and industrial development. Economic growth in the Africa Case is significantly stronger over the next two decades than in the scenario based on today’s stated policies, but energy demand is lower. This is linked to an accelerated move away from the use of solid biomass (such as wood) as a fuel and to the wide application of energy efficiency policies.
The IEA has been monitoring Africa’s energy sector closely for a long time: IEA analysis of energy access issues on the continent began in 2002 and is set to expand significantly. This new report comes at an important time in the IEA’s deepening engagement with Africa. In May, the IEA and the African Union Commission co-hosted their first joint ministerial summit at which the two organisations signed a Memorandum of Understanding to guide future collaboration. A second ministerial forum will be held in 2020.
Africa Energy Outlook 2019 is an excerpt from the IEA’s flagship report World Energy Outlook 2019, which will be published in full on 13 November.
Economic Diversification Can Create More and Better Jobs in Ghana
Ghana’s economic growth has been strong over the past decade, with annual GDP per capita growth at 4.4 percent between 2006 and 2017. Growth however has been heavily concentrated in the natural resources and commodities sectors which has had an impact on how and where jobs can be created, according to a World Bank report, entitled “Economic Diversification Through Productivity Enhancement.”
“About 40 percent of the employed work in non-wage agriculture and most urban workers are in low-productivity informal jobs, primarily in the services sector”, said, Pierre Laporte, World Bank Country Director. “The need for economic diversification is therefore urgent for the creation of more and better jobs. Increasing productivity of firms is critical to accelerate job rich growth”.
The report analyzes the main challenges for economic diversification. Ghana’s productivity levels are relatively high in the African context, although they lag behind most other lower-middle- and middle-income countries. The report highlights key constraints for firms to engage in productive activities, such as: (i) access to finance; (ii) access to well-located services, and affordable industrial land; and (iii) access to qualified labor, which is particularly important for firms operating at the technological frontier.
“Growth comes through structural change – a shift of economic activities and employment from low to high productivity areas would help to overcome Ghana’s economic concentration and challenges related to job creation” said Michael Geiger, World Bank Senior Economist and co-author.
Capital accumulation has been a driving force for economic growth over the past decade. Increasing the capital stock is good news for an economy that is trying to address its infrastructure gap and has ambitious goals to catch-up economically. Capital accumulation in Ghana was realized through strong increases in investments concentrated in a few, natural resource sectors. In order to broaden Ghana’s economic endowment, investments need to benefit more sectors in the economy.
To create a pathway to a more diversified economy, the report suggests taking advantage of short-term wins in promising sectors for growth such as agribusiness, chemicals, textiles, processed resources through upgrading of existing production and product differentiation. It calls for interventions to lay the foundation for economic activity to flourish, such as human capital and physical infrastructure development, bettering the business enabling environment by removing some of constraints to productivity growth, and addressing structural issues to attract more foreign direct and domestic investments.
The report concludes that a more diverse economy could help reduce economic volatility from commodity cycles and offer new opportunities for more people to benefit from strong economic growth.
Income Growth Sluggish for Malaysian Youth, Lower- Income Households
Slowing income growth among lower-income households and younger workers has contributed to perceptions of being “left behind”, according to the 21st edition of the World Bank’s Malaysia Economic Monitor, launched here today.
Although median incomes continue to outpace inflation, income growth rates for low-income Malaysians slowed between 2014 and 2016. Moreover, wage growth for younger and less-educated workers has been sluggish, persistently trailing the earnings of older and better-educated workers, according to the report.
Median employment income for younger workers aged between 20 and 29 grew at an annual rate of 2.4 percent, compared to 3.9 percent for those 40 to 49 years old over the same period. The increase in the monthly absolute earnings gap between these two age groups has been more pronounced, more than doubling from RM529 in 2004 to RM1,197 in 2016 (all amounts adjusted for inflation). This signifies a growing wage divide and wage stagnation for the youths.
The report highlighted varying purchasing power in different parts of the country, poor financial planning, household indebtedness, and unaffordable housing as other key factors affecting living costs.
“The cost of living is a concern which extends beyond prices. Those on lower wages spend their income to pay for essentials – rent, transportation, food – and in the end, they find not much is left for the month. The challenge for policymakers is that different solutions are needed to cater to different groups with different needs,” said YB Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, Malaysia’s Minister of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs. “The National Action Council on Cost of Living was established so that efforts by different ministries and government agencies can be formulated, consolidated and discussed under one roof. This timely report by the World Bank also serves to inform efforts to better serve the people.”
Amidst global uncertainty, the report notes that Malaysia’s growth continues to be sustained with GDP projected to expand by 4.5 percent in 2020, largely driven by the expected expansion of private consumption of 6.5 percent and despite weaker-than-anticipated investment and export growth in recent months.
Given the outlook, preserving fiscal space will be vital to mitigate the impact of any shocks. More can be done to raise government revenue, forecasted to be at 15.2 percent of GDP in 2020, without affecting low-income households, in key areas such as making personal income taxes more progressive and broadening consumption taxes. This will help create fiscal space for development and social spending to boost shared prosperity.
“More than ever, we need to scale up investments in people to encourage sustainable, inclusive economic growth. Malaysia can make policy decisions to combat inequality and improve the lives and opportunities of the poorest,” said Mara Warwick, World Bank Country Director for Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. “The report draws on strong evidence to identify high-impact policies with a proven record of building shared prosperity and improving people’s access to services and long-term development opportunities.”
Alleviating cost of living pressures demands a mix of short-term measures and long-term policies, according to the report. Short-term measures should strengthen social safety nets, while over the long run, greater coordination across agencies and implementation of structural reforms to foster greater market competition and accelerate productivity would help lift real incomes for all.
Inequality threatening human development
Despite global progress in tackling poverty, hunger and disease, a “new generation of inequalities” indicates that many societies are not working as they should, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) argues in its latest report released on Monday.
The 2019 Human Development Report (HDR) states that just as the gap in basic living standards is narrowing for millions of people, inequalities surrounding education, and around technology and climate change, have sparked demonstrations across the globe.
Left unchecked, they could trigger a ‘new great divergence’ in society of the kind not seen since the Industrial Revolution, according to the report.
“This Human Development Report sets out how systemic inequalities are deeply damaging our society and why,” said Achim Steiner, the UNDP Administrator.
“Inequality is not just about how much someone earns compared to their neighbour. It is about the unequal distribution of wealth and power: the entrenched social and political norms that are bringing people onto the streets today, and the triggers that will do so in the future unless something changes. Recognizing the real face of inequality is a first step; what happens next is a choice that each leader must make.”
‘Inequality not beyond solutions’
Mr. Steiner added crucially that “inequality is not beyond solutions”.
The human development approach views “richness” as going beyond the idea that economic growth will automatically lead to development and wellbeing.
It focuses on people, and their opportunities and choices.
UNDP research shows that in 2018, 20 per cent of human development progress was lost due to the unequal distribution of education, health and living standards.
“What used to be ‘nice-to-haves’, like going to university or access to broadband, are increasingly important for success, but left only with the basics, people find the rungs knocked out of their ladder to the future,” said Pedro Conceição, Director of the HDR Office at UNDP.
Invest in education, productivity, public spending
The report recommends revamped policies in the areas of education, productivity and public spending.
As inequality begins even before birth and can accumulate through adulthood, investing in young children’s learning, health and nutrition is key. These investments must continue throughout life as they have an impact on earnings and productivity in the labour market.
UNDP observed that countries with a more productive workforce generally have a lower concentration of wealth at the top, which is enabled by policies that support stronger unions, the right to a minimum wage, social protection and which bring more women into the workplace.
The report further highlights the role of taxation, which cannot be looked at on its own. Rather, fair taxation should lie behind policies that include greater public spending on health, education and greener energy alternatives.
As the UNDP chief noted, “Different triggers are bringing people onto the streets — the cost of a train ticket, the price of petrol, demands for political freedoms, the pursuit of fairness and justice. This is the new face of inequality”.
Looking to the future, the report asks how inequality might be viewed years down the line, especially in relation to “two seismic shifts” that will shape the next century.
Those are the climate crisis, and the progress of the technological transformation that includes renewables and energy efficiency, digital finance and digital health solutions.
The report calls for opportunities to be “seized quickly and shared broadly”.
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