Mobilization of futurism creates wider global-age skills-gaps; today, openly visible are varying levels of tactical smartness about understanding global-age battlefields amongst political leaderships and their economic performances. There are three types of common elections promises creating three types of daily realties; firstly, revival of stack-chimneys and hard labor work may sound nostalgic on a podium but in realties nothing but economic death traps while lack of new global-age smart skills being ignored, secondly, declaring trade-war to cover-up internal limitations of skills on exports in realties do not bring back jobs rather slows economies and thirdly, creating fake bubbles and crises politics or shepherding invisible unicorns as miracles of innovation are all in realities hurting local grassroots prosperity. What’s clearly on rise is the restless citizenry and populism. Why is all this happening, why lack of serious debates; why such chaos?
Some pragmatic solutions: The unstoppable force of Platform Economies; when smart digital platforms operate like complex AI centric automatic transactions processing plants replacing lingering bureaucracies where old manually structured organizations are morphed instantly into digitized assembling and disassembling achieving desired architectural shapes processing unlimited tasks at miniscule costs, unlimited bounce and with full scalability, all in real time.
you have watched this in Sci-Fi movies.
Yes, this is 2020 reality.
Yes, this is just a start.
Study the robotization of society and elimination of bureaucracies; transforming sluggishly established business models into new butterflies to finally alter local economies. Same platforms can bring amazing results in public sectors buried under paper. To play is this arena deeper strengths of self-discovery and self-optimization are critical.
Business-Reality Blending into Entrepreneurial-Virtuality Diffusing into Technology
This is a new split-second-transactional-world of business, entrepreneurial platforms save the day, growth comes with solid understanding of 100% accuracy and quality, productivity lands with delivery of promise with 100% fluidity and profitability rains with national-global-alliances and this is how grassroots prosperity blossoms, this is how restless citizenry saved form populism. How do you educate public – private sectors on such pragmatic solutions? How do create new thinking?
Why is this now a crucial necessity; if declarations of external trade-wars only prove presence of unskilled-citizenry unable to stand up to global exportability, it’s now time for declarations of internal skill-wars to train highly skilled-citizenry to outperform on global trading via collaborative synthesizim. This is how, national mobilization of entrepreneurialism and deployment of platform economies come into play.
Economic Forecasts: 2020 -2040 -2050
Briefly glance at 1990, 2000, 2010, study the behavioral shifts in consumerism and services, global shifts demanding instant gratifications and competitive forces of superior quality and human performance. The forecasts of future are very easy; just multiply such factors with 100% to 1000% …expect ferocious demands for tactical-creative-skills. Global out-cry for honest control on data-management real hunger for collaborative alliances. Future is about skills and sleepy nations ignoring such challenges will awaken to harsh realities. As an example, where we are today, compared to the skills needed to fall off cliffs with planks bounded on our arms during the Wright Bros era to our modern day landing of Airbus 380-A at busiest airports. We need massive transformation to cope future.
Justify corporate existence with lifelong learning and not just profits
Mobilization of Entrepreneurialism uplifts thousands of mid-size businesses
to enable creation of digital platforms to generate exportability and profitability
to create local grassroots prosperity; this is how new models of economic
uplifts are made. Without debate, discussions, just silence becomes a proof of
incompetency. Now new thought leadership needed to create highly
Nation’s biggest assets will not be how many machines but how skilled their citizenry.
The transformation to platform economy made
possible by three key factors:
Witnessing the recent huge virtual empires without visible structures,
Recognizing block-chain advances creating layers of efficiencies with deliverable reach,
Understanding free-technologies drowning once mighty organizations and institutions,
Transformation is the only way for lifelong learning as a global-age economic survival methodology
Beyond 2020, any large major trade group or organization unless preparing for powerful digital platforms may not be able to survive with just old websites, shopping carts and basic portals.
Some 25 years ago; majority occupants of corner offices of tallest skyscrapers of the world had almost no ideas what email, URL or websites were and thus a massive transformation took place. We are at that very point, all over again.
Management must demonstrate understanding to compress large complex organizational structures with diverse and distributed activity and shrink them into virtual power-balls on a platform to bounce creating extreme performance with national or global scalability in real time. Nations and regions that missed the varying levels industrial revolutions could simply advance now to the Platform Economy. Once you decide that your business model is already qualified for creating a sophisticated digital platform around it, suddenly, the organization faced with three challenges.
Most transformations are not new funding dependent but mostly mobilization starved.
To study your own current organization you will be required to dismantle ambiguity by creating high rational for each and every single move, every angle at every junction. Not that easy, but such planning sometimes is already there and perfected over a course of time or in need of fine tuning to fit on brand new schematics. In either case specialized high value guided tours can help with such pains.
Solid business models land solidly on digital platforms and immediately start working wonders.
There are two simple options, firstly, create a dedicated person on Platform Economy and have this person trained enough to be able to articulate the exiting business model to over lay over digital platforms with recommendations and secondly attend some world-class global events and special workshop and round-table discussions on these topics.
Caution; avoid tackling this as IT issue, as it is not. This is an entrepreneurial issue, solid business modeling, wrapped in collaborative synthesizim, landing on right technologies, like how to create bounce with relevant alliances to boost your business, plus Micro-Power-Nation, like many dozens of small nations and their massive markets that would open up new venues, plus understanding futurism. Once all this sorted out in national mobilization and deployment of the platform modeling, IT teams will come in to do their relevant parts. Window installers, brick-layers and elevator engineers build skyscrapers but they do not design skyscrapers, architects do.
Mastery of your vertical market, supremacy of your image and innovative performance are the real issues, as rest becomes deployment of virtual bricks and mobilization of mortar.
Champions of Platform Economy wanted for global projects…
Study in depth on Google, find and evaluate your hidden talents and rare untapped special skills, entrepreneurialism is a savior, degrees have become irrelevant, if any such bold ideas fit, become a champion. Study even harder… this November 4th to 7th at WEB Summit Lisbon, Platformara from Ireland, a Division of Expothon is building and growing global teams. New energies and global ideas unleashed for game changers.
of Commerce and Trade Associations of the world are
primed to enjoy the ride and dramatically boost their local economies. With
10,000 Chambers and some 100,000 trade Associations
a massive transformation is at play as special skills and industry specific-dialogues are the critically missing links. Expect some powerful platforms in these sectors soon.
Quadrability Thinking: is a four-dimensional executions and simultaneous working style that fits smart environments laced with Artificial Intelligence, block-chains intertwined with global complexities of commerce and new global-age-style performance. Platform Economy demands such warriors.
Observe the speed, how fast 2020 will unfold and set pathways towards 2030.
Economy Contradicts Democracy: Russian Markets Boom Amid Political Sabotage
The political game plan laid by the Russian premier Vladimir Putin has proven effective for the past two decades. Apart from the systemic opposition, the core critics of the Kremlin are absent from the ballot. And while a competitive pretense is skilfully maintained, frontrunners like Alexei Navalny have either been incarcerated, exiled, or pushed against the metaphorical wall. All in all, United Russia is ahead in the parliamentary polls and almost certain to gain a veto-proof majority in State Duma – the Russian parliament. Surprisingly, however, the Russian economy seems unperturbed by the active political manipulation of the Kremlin. On the contrary, the Russian markets have already established their dominance in the developing world as Putin is all set to hold his reign indefinitely.
The Russian economy is forecasted to grow by 3.9% in 2021. The pandemic seems like a pained tale of history as the markets have strongly rebounded from the slump of 2020. The rising commodity prices – despite worrisome – have edged the productivity of the Russian raw material giants. The gains in ruble have gradually inched higher since January, while the current account surplus has grown by 3.9%. Clearly, the manufacturing mechanism of Moscow has turned more robust. Primarily because the industrial sector has felt little to no jitters of both domestic and international defiance. The aftermath of the arrest of Alexei Navalny wrapped up dramatically while the international community couldn’t muster any resistance beyond a handful of sanctions. The Putin regime managed to harness criticism and allegations while deftly sketching a blueprint to extend its dominance.
The ideal ‘No Uncertainty’ situation has worked wonders for the Russian Bourse and the bond market. The benchmark MOEX index (Moscow Exchange) has rallied by 23% in 2021 – the strongest performance in the emerging markets. Moreover, the fixed income premiums have dropped to record lows; Russian treasury bonds offering the best price-to-earning ratio in the emerging markets. The main reason behind such a bustling market response could be narrowed down to one factor: growing investor confidence.
According to Bloomberg’s data, the Russian Foreign Exchange reserves are at their record high of $621 billion. And while the government bonds’ returns hover at a mere 1.48%, the foreign ownership of treasury bonds has inflated above 20% for the second time this year. The investors are confident that a significant political shuffle is not on cards as Putin maintains a tight hold over Kremlin. Furthermore, investors do not perceive the United States as an active deterrent to Russia – at least in the near term. The notion was further exacerbated when the Biden administration unilaterally dropped sanctions from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project. And while Europe and the US remain sympathetic with the Kremlin critics, large economies like Germany have clarified their economic position by striking lucrative deals amid political pressure. It is apparent that while Europe is conflicted after Brexit, even the US faces much more pressing issues in the guise of China and Afghanistan. Thus, no active international defiance has all but bolstered the Kremlin in its drive to gain foreign investments.
Another factor at work is the overly hawkish Russian Central Bank (RCB). To tame inflation – currency raging at an annual rate of 6.7% – the RCB hiked its policy rate to 6.75% from the all-time low of 4.25%. The RCB has raised its policy rate by a cumulative 250 basis points in four consecutive hikes since January which has all but attracted the investors to jump on the bandwagon. However, inflation is proving to be sturdy in the face of intermittent rate hikes. And while Russian productivity is enjoying a smooth run, failure of monetary policy tools could just as easily backfire.
While political dissent or international sanctions remain futile, inflation is the prime enemy which could detract the Russian economy. For years Russia has faced a sharp decline in living standards, and despite commendable fiscal management of the Kremlin, such a steep rise in prices is an omen of a financial crisis. Moreover, the unemployment rates have dropped to record low levels. However, the labor shortage is emerging as another facet that could plausibly ignite the wage-price spiral. Further exacerbating the threat of inflation are the $9.6 billion pre-election giveaways orchestrated by President Putin to garner more support for his United Russia party. Such a tremendous demand pressure could presumably neutralize the aggressive tightening of the monetary policy by the RCB. Thus, while President Putin sure is on a definitive path of immortality on the throne of the Kremlin, surging inflation could mark a return of uncertainty, chip away investors’ confidence: eventually putting a brake on the economic streak.
Synchronicity in Economic Policy amid the Pandemic
Synchronicity is an ever present reality for those who have eyes to see. –Carl Jung
The Covid pandemic has elicited a number of deficiencies in the current global governance framework, most notably its weaknesses in mustering a coordinated response to the global economic downturn. A global economy is not fully “global” if it is devoid of the capability to conduct coordinated and effective responses to a global economic crisis. What may be needed is a more flexible governance structure in the world economy that is capable of exhibiting greater synchronicity in economic policies across countries and regions. Such a governance structure should accord greater weight to regional integration arrangements and their development institutions at the level of key G20 decisions concerning international economic policy coordination.
The need for greater synchronicity in the global economy arises across several trajectories:
· Greater synchronicity in the anti-crisis response across countries and regions – according to the IMF it is a coordinated response that renders economic stimulus more efficacious in countering the global downturn
· Synchronicity in the withdrawal of stimulus across the largest economies – absent such coordination the timing of policy normalization could be postponed with negative implications for macroeconomic stability
· Greater synchronicity in opening borders, lifting lockdowns and other policy measures related to responding to the pandemic: such synchronicity provides more scope for cross-country and cross-regional value-added chains to boost production
· Greater synchronicity in ensuring a recovery in migration and the movement of people across borders.
Of course such greater synchronicity in economic policy should not undermine the autonomy of national economic policy – it is rather about the capability of national and regional economies to exhibit greater coordination during downturns rather than a progression towards a uniform pattern of economic policy across countries. Synchronicity is not only about policy coordination per se, but also about creating the infrastructure that facilitates such joint actions. This includes the conclusion of digital accords/agreements that raise significantly the potential for economic policy coordination. Another area is the development of physical infrastructure, most notably in the transportation sphere. Such measures serve to improve regional and inter-regional connectivity and provide a firmer foundation for regional economic integration.
The paradox in which the world economy finds itself is that even as the current crisis is leading to fragmentation and isolationism there is a greater need for more policy coordination and synchronicity to overcome the economic downturn. This need for synchronicity may well increase in the future given the widening array of global risks such as risks to cyber-security as well as energy security and climate change. There is also the risk of the depletion of reserves to counter the Covid crisis that has been accompanied by a rise in debt levels across developed and developing economies. Also, the speed of the propagation of crisis impulses (that effectively increases with technological advances and globalization) is not matched by the capability of economic policy coordination and efficiency of anti-crisis policies.
There may be several modes of advancing greater synchronicity across borders in international relations. One possible option is a major superpower using its clout in a largely unipolar setting to facilitate greater policy coordination. Another possibility is for such coordination to be supported by global international institutions such as the UN, the WTO, Bretton Woods institutions, etc. Other options include coordination across the multiplicity of all countries of the global economy as well as across regional integration arrangements and institutions.
Attaining greater synchronicity across countries will necessitate changes in the global governance framework, which currently is characterized by weak multilateral institutions at the top level and a fragmented framework of governance at the level of countries. What may be needed is a greater scope accorded to regional integration arrangements that may facilitate greater coordination of synchronicity at the regional level as well as across regions. The advantage of providing greater weight to the regional institutions in dealing with global economic downturns emanates from their greater efficiency in coordinating an anti-crisis response at the regional level via investment/infrastructure projects as well as macroeconomic policy coordination. Regional development institutions also have a comparative advantage in leveraging regional interdependencies to promote economic recovery.
In conclusion, the global economy has arguably become more fragmented as a result of the Covid pandemic. The multiplicity of country models of dealing with the pandemic, the “vaccine competition”, the breaking up of global value chains and their nationalization and regionalization all point in the direction of greater localization and self-sufficiency. At the same time there is a need from greater synchronicity across countries particularly in the context of the current pandemic crisis. Regional integration arrangements and institutions could serve to facilitate such coordination in economic policy within and across the major regions of the world economy.
From our partner RIAC
A New Strategy for Ukraine
Authors: Anna Bjerde and Novoye Vremia
Four years ago, the World Bank prepared a multi-year strategy to support Ukraine’s development goals. This was a period of recovery from the economic crisis of 2014-2015, when GDP declined by a cumulative 16 percentage points, the banking sector collapsed, and poverty and other measures of insecurity spiked. Indeed, we noted at the time that Ukraine was at a turning point.
Four years later, despite daunting internal and external challenges, including an ongoing pandemic, Ukraine is a stronger country. It has proved more resilient to unpredictable challenges and is better positioned to achieve its long-term development vision. This increased capacity is first and foremost the result of the determination of the Ukrainian people.
The World Bank is proud to have joined the international community in supporting Ukraine during this period. I am here in Kyiv this week to launch a new program of assistance. In doing this, we look back to what worked and how to apply those lessons going forward. In Ukraine—as in many countries—the chief lesson is that development assistance is most effective when it supports policies and projects which the government and citizens really want.
This doesn’t mean only easy or even non-controversial measures; rather, it means we engage closely with government authorities, business, local leaders, and civil society to understand where policy reforms may be most effective in removing obstacles to growth and human development and where specific projects can be most successful in delivering social services, particularly to the poorest.
Looking back over the past four years in Ukraine, a few examples stand out. First, agricultural land reform. For the past two decades, Ukraine was one of the few countries in the world where farmers were not free to sell their land.
The prohibition on allowing farmers to leverage their most valuable asset contributed to underinvestment in one of Ukraine’s most important sources of growth, hurt individual landowners, led to high levels of rural unemployment and poverty, and undermined the country’s long-term competitiveness.
The determination by the President and the actions by the government to open the market on July 1 required courage. This was not an easy decision. Powerful and well-connected interests benefited from the status quo; but it was the right one for Ukrainian citizens.
A second area where we have been closely involved is governance, both with respect to public institutions and the rule of law, as well as the corporate governance of state-owned banks and enterprises. Poll after poll in Ukraine going back more than a decade revealed that strengthening public institutions and creating a level playing field for business was a top priority.
World Bank technical assistance and policy financing have supported measures to restore liability for illicit enrichment of public officials, to strengthen existing anticorruption agencies such as NABU and NACP, and to create new institutions, including the independent High-Anticorruption Court.
We are also working with government to ensure the integrity of state-owned enterprises. Our support to the government’s unbundling of Naftogaz is a good example; assistance in establishing supervisory boards in state-owned banks is another. We hope our early dialogue on modernizing the operations of Ukrzaliznytsia will be equally beneficial.
As we begin preparation of a new strategy, the issues which have guided our ongoing work—strengthening markets, stabilizing Ukraine’s fiscal and financial accounts; and providing inclusive social services more efficiently—remain as pressing today as they were in 2017. Indeed, the progress which has been achieved needs to continue to be supported as they frequently come under assault from powerful interests.
At the same time, recent years have highlighted emerging challenges where we hope to deepen and expand our engagement. First, COVID-19 has underscored the importance of our long partnership in health reform and strengthening social protection programs.
The changes to the provision of health care in Ukraine over recent years has helped mitigate the effects of COVID-19 and will continue to make Ukrainians healthier. Government efforts to better target social spending to the poor has also made a difference. We look forward to continuing our support in both areas, including over the near term through further support to purchase COVID-19 vaccines.
Looking ahead, the challenge confronting us all is climate change. Here again, our dialogue with the government has positioned us to help, including to achieve Ukraine’s ambitious commitment to reduce carbon emissions. During President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington in early September we discussed operations to strengthen the electricity sector; a program to transition from coal power to renewables; municipal energy efficiency investments; and how to tap into Ukraine’s unique capacity to produce and store hydrogen energy. This is a bold agenda, but one that can be realized.
I have been gratified by my visit to Kyiv to see first-hand what has been achieved in recent years. I look forward to our partnership with Ukraine to help realize this courageous vision of the future.
Originally published in Ukrainian language in Novoye Vremia, via World Bank
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