By now, most people around the world have roundly criticized or collectively shaken their heads at President Trump and his sudden decision in early October to remove American special forces out of Syria. This move was immediately met by President Erdogan of Turkey with unreserved glee, as he began his own offensive maneuvers against the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), which is basically a Kurdish force that has been fighting against ISIS (on its own and also under the auspices of the United States) for the past five years within Syria. While many people feel Trump’s move basically sentenced the SDF to de facto death, since it would never be capable of handling or overcoming the strength of Turkish weapons and forces overall, many more remain simply flummoxed, unable to conceive of any logic to Trump’s foreign policy. Some of these well-known criticisms run as follows:
•Most of the effectiveness of Trump’s anti-ISIS campaign within Syria has been accomplished through the heroism and sacrifice of the Kurdish SDF. So how can the US undermine its own counterterrorist strategy in Syria by stabbing its best fighting ally in the back?
•Trump has criticized Erdogan in the past (though weakly) and, as soon as his decision was made, seemed to tack back 180 degrees by telling Erdogan he should fight things out with the Kurds like ‘two kids’ but to not ‘go too far.’ Reports indicate even Erdogan himself was amazed by the naivete of this missive coming from the American President.
•Trump says he pulled the special forces out because he did not want America getting sucked into another interminable and deadly Middle East conflict. However, the very pullout itself has many experts convinced that the most significant consequence to emerge will be the release and reinvigoration of thousands of ISIS prisoners previously being held by the SDF.
•So, instead of keeping 1000 US special forces troops in Syria now, Trump may be forcing thousands more regular American troops back into Syria later, only forced to face a stronger and bigger ISIS.
All of these criticisms are sound and justly argued. As inexplicable the decision-making of Trump, as tragic the ultimate consequence to the SDF Kurds will be, the thing that fascinates me most is how much this poor decision seems to be informed by a misplaced fantasy scenario that will not only NOT come to fruition, it will in fact ultimately backfire against Trump’s wishful thinking and land right into the lap of Vladimir Putin.
Given that, irony of ironies, the SDF Kurds had no choice with the attacks by Turkey but to turn to President Assad of Syria (and by default the Russian Federation) for assistance, Trump’s decision creates a weak alliance in the Middle East that puts the United States in bed with both Turkey and Saudi Arabia. In pure power terms, those two countries do indeed occupy primary places of importance in the Middle East, though to be sure Turkey and Saudi Arabia are not exactly the best of friends. But given Trump made major decisions in open support of Saudi Arabia recently (think Yemen and the murder of Khashoggi) and now this SDF decision de facto creates open support for Turkish interests in Syria, it seems impossible to argue anything other than Trump feels it is important that the US align with those two nations over anyone else. So what are the REAL foreign policy consequences of that reality?
Ultimately, and conspiracy theorists get ready to put on your tin foil hats and rejoice, this decision could most benefit the Middle East interests of the Russia. If the SDF ultimately has its overtures solidified by Assad and Russia (they will be), then the biggest ‘real power’ player across the all-important Levant fertile crescent will be the Russian Federation. Russia’s chief allies in this region have always been Iran and Assad. Adding in the organized Kurds within Syria will only deeply entrench Russian interests further in an area of the Middle East most Americans have always desperately wanted Russia isolated from. Given that Erdogan, ever the Machiavellian strategist, literally went to Russia and met with President Putin just a few days ago, it seems that whatever Trump’s wishes are for a stronger US-Turkey bond, the Turkish president doesn’t seem to share the same enthusiasm. When we also then add on the recent statements by King Salman (after the Turkish maneuvers in Syria had already taken place) about how much Saudi Arabia ‘appreciates the active role of the Russian Federation in this region of the world,’ it is obvious that both the Saudis and Turks are willing to use President Trump for their own purposes, but not promise him any permanent or exclusive bond in return. They may like his attention, but he is not the prettiest on the block.
And this seems to be the strangest and most dangerous problem right now for American foreign policy. The American president still seems convinced that the sheer power and magnetism of his personality will actually succeed in bending the will and forcing the recalculation of other countries’ national interests. As if friendship with Trump is by far the biggest currency. Unfortunately, reality on the ground playing out across the Middle East seems to be equating that currency with the same amount of power as the American $2 bill: it exists, technically, but no one feels special about having one and no one actively seeks a place in which to utilize it. Most embarrassing is of course the fact that the American president consistently declares the ‘unique’ wisdom of his ways, inferring his long-term vision is just too profound for regular people to comprehend. That could be wonderful, if still a bit unnerving, for America if it were true. However, empirical facts seem to indicate otherwise: President Putin has consistently outwitted Trump in the foreign policy arena; Crown Prince MBS has deftly outmaneuvered Trump in order to avoid any deep rift between their two countries despite committing some horrific human rights atrocities, in specific and in general; and now President Erdogan has out-strategied Trump so that he can achieve his ultimate fantasy goal in Syria – killing Kurds while strengthening a ‘buffer zone’ along his eastern regions that are carved not out of Turkish territory but Syrian. All of this has happened on Trump’s watch, with Trump’s agreement, and accompanied by Trump crowing victory. All while Vladimir Putin smiles slyly and gathers up chits across the region from all of the important players, big and small. Right now, for just about everyone in the Middle East, Putin is the much prettier prom queen compared to Trump. And that does not bode well for American foreign policy in the Middle East.
