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Trade for Geopolitical Stability: Lessons for India and Pakistan

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One of the most volatile zones today apart from the 38th parallel between the North-South Korea is the India-Pakistan border. With attacks and counter-attacks being reported almost every day, the threat of full-fledged war between the two largest nations in the South Asian region cannot be overlooked. Although last time both the countries were at war was in 1999 but the recent decision of the Indian Government on State of Jammu and Kashmir has increased tensions between the two countries. As a result of this rivalry, both the governments have been trying to feed their people with their own narratives and hence it becomes important to ascertain what can be the way out of the age-old conflict between the two nations. While India and Pakistan both are members of various international organizations like UN, WTO, IMF, etc. as well as regional organizations like SAARC, SCO, etc., none of these forums have ever come even an inch closer to resolution of the dispute between the two. Most recently with the decision of India to revoke Article 370, Pakistan has retaliated with the suspension of trade ties with India. The current bilateral trade between the two countries accounts for only a mere 2.1 bn $ and as it only forms 0.83% of total trade between the two countries hence both the countries have nothing to lose in the discourse. This article analyses how trade can ensure regional stability among two major players of the South Asian region.

While trade could have been a measure to ensure harmony between any conflicting nations, yet the first retaliatory measure that countries opt for is to cut off bilateral trade with each other in order to show their resentment over a policy. Although such instances have decreased in number since the formation of World Trade Organization (WTO), yet they cannot be altogether ruled out. At this stage,it is equally important to understand that since the formation of WTO, the world has not seen major wars as it was understood in its traditional meaning as a war between nations. One can equally not neglect the rise of belligerency and insurgency often supported by foreign institutions. Still, one of the credits that cannot be taken away from WTO is that it has ensured that the countries which have higher volume of bilateral trade often prefer peace over war, despite the odds. This claim is not without merit. History is a great educator. A brief comparison before the formation of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and after the formation of GATT would prove it. The GATT was negotiated between countries in 1948. It was one of the founding pillars on which our modern-day WTO is based.

The countries came to an agreement where they fixed a range for tariffs or bound rate beyond which the tariffs cannot be imposed on import of goods. This mechanism ensures certainty in tariff rates which prevents the countries to turn into protectionist regimes. It would not be wrong to say that the first idea of globalization pursued by international community was not freedom of movement of people but the freedom of movement of goods and services. Prior to GATT, during the early 1930s, also known as the period of the Great Depression, lack of such an affirmation in form of GATT and the consequent fear that imports would throw more people out of work led governments to raise their trade barriers, thus creating a vicious cycle of retaliation. As a result, the world economy shattered, eventually contributing to the outbreak of World War II. Such a protectionist approach with no such affirmation as we find in GATT can easily lead us to a situation where everyone loses. However, a deeper analysis in the post-World War II period would establish that the recovery of Western European nations from the aftermath of the war was much quicker as compared to the Eastern European nations.

The effect was such that most of the western European nations today are part of a customs union with free movement of goods as well as of people. Even the Soviet Union (USSR), which opposed the idea of market economy before its disintegration showed interest in becoming a member of GATT in 1986. Several letters and correspondence between GATT members and USSR prove this point. Much later after its disintegration, during 2000s most of the newly formed nations acceded to the GATT with Russia ultimately joining the WTO in 2008. What was realised much later in form of European Union (EU)found its place in the writings of French Philosopher Montesquieu and Italian Economist Pareto. Montesquieu, in 1748,quoted, peace is a natural effect of commerce. Pareto argued in 1889 that customs union can help to achieve peace between European nations. None of these claims have been proven wrong. Since the formation of EU, none of the surveys have ever claimed of Europe being the centre for next major war between nations. It can be equally argued that this has been made possible because now the focus of nations has shifted from acquiring territories to improving their respective economies. Yet, the importance of economics behind a war cannot be totally neglected. Going by the report of UNICEF conducted by M Humphreys of Harvard University in 2003 came to a similar conclusion stating, countries which trade with each other are less likely to fight each other. He illustrates his argument with how most of the leftist scholars have yet not come out of the mercantilism hangover as the modern trade regime is not based on mercantilism which believed that imports per se are bad for any country.

Another recent example can be seen in the shift that UNDP’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have brought in contrast to Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The interlinkage between the idea of development and conflict which was missing in MDGs find their place, and rightly so, in the SDGs. Even the ASEAN which today has become a successful economic bloc was formed with the intention of stopping the spread of communist ideas in the region. Since 1990s the organization has remained an important voice in nearly all the economic platforms. Even scholars from all around the world have supported similar idea.Daniel Griswold, examined the idea that whether free and open markets promote human rights and democracy. He observed, “Economic liberalization provides a counterweight to governmental power and creates space for civil society. The faster growth and greater wealth that accompany trade promote democracy by creating an economically independent and political aware middle class. A sizeable middle class means that more citizens can afford to be educated and take an interest in public affairs. They can afford cell phones, Internet access, and satellite TV. As citizens acquire assets and establish businesses and careers in the private sector, they prefer the continuity and evolutionary reform of a democratic system to the sharp turns and occasional revolutions of more authoritarian systems. People who are allowed to successfully manage their daily economic lives in a relatively free market come to expect and demand more freedom in the political and social realm.”

Turning to the question in context, i.e. South Asia, especially India and Pakistan, this is probably not the first time that someone has come up with the idea of trade as a means to ensure peace and stability in the region. In one of his recent articles,Dr. Ranjan, Professor at South Asian University, arguesThe people of South Asia surely deserve a prosperous and a peaceful future.  The onus is on the leadership of the two biggest countries in the region to deliver. While solving difficult political questions will undoubtedly take time, it won’t be a bad idea to start working towards creating an atmosphere where even difficult questions can be resolved. Increasing bilateral trade can be one such step towards creating such a positive atmosphere.

In a study published by Woodrow Wilson International Centre, “trade relation between India and Pakistan have often blossomed even while political relations wilted. In 1948–49, 56 percent of Pakistan’s exports were sent to India. For the next several years—a period of tense political relations—India was Pakistan’s largest trading partner. Between 1947 and 1965, the two nations entered into 14 bilateral agreements related to trade facilitation.”

Source: Bloomberg (Quint)

In a recent report by World Bank, the potential of trade between the two nations is a whooping 37 bn $. However, in reality it is at 2.4 bn $ which is insignificant for both the countries. The informal trade between the countries stands much higher at 4 bn $, which is routed through UAE. With regards to the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) clause, India granted MFN to Pakistan in 1996 and withdrew it post Pulwama attacks in 2019. Pakistan has yet not reciprocated the same. It is however quite strange that none of the successive governments in India has ever brought the issue to the WTO against Pakistan’s non-compliance of MFN obligations. Even under the regional trade arrangements like South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA), Pakistan maintains a negative list of over 1200 products which it doesn’t import from India. Apart from these tariff measures there are other non-tariff reasons such as port restrictions prevailing between both the countries which further narrows down the scope of increased trade. The other logistical reasons include the transport restrictions through Wagah Border, where none of the transport vehicles are allowed to move out of the border zone and have to unload their cargo.

The condition worsened post article 370 amendment, when Pakistan decided to suspend all trade ties with India. Although none of the decisions taken by either of the governments ever impacted their respective economies, yet retaliatory measures undertaken by both the countries with respect to not granting or withdrawal of MFN or even suspension of trade cannot be justified if brought before the dispute settlement body of WTO. A measure which goes against the principles enunciated under the WTO agreements is only allowedin cases when they either fall under the category of General Exceptions or National Security Exception. However, a prima facie observation of all the measures ever undertaken by either of the governments shows that none of these qualify either under the general exceptions or national security exception.

The problems pertaining to the conflict between the two nations is not merely political but also dependent upon the perception of ordinary people. Recent survey by Pew Research Centre found that 76 percent of Indians viewed Pakistan as a serious threat and 61 percent of Pakistanis viewed India as a threat, more than 55 percent who viewed Taliban as a threat. Another survey by Pulse Consultant in 2017 found 95 percent of Pakistanis designating India as the worst enemy. This narrative has further been deepened by the media houses in both the countries who often during debates promote the hatred. This public perception depends a lot on the population and what narrative they read and follow. As the median population in both these countries is around 24-28, most of them have not witnessed the horrific impact of either the 1965 war or the 1971 war between the two nations. To change this perception, free trade can be one of the ways. With freer trade in place, it is not only the products which cross borders, but also the ideas and other forms of expressions in form of magazines, news etc. It might not be as effective as educating and spreading awareness among people, yet when the political class of both the countries is occupied with bashing each other at international forums, this can be a good start.

Overall, with such a trade potential between the two nations it is imperative for the governments of both the countries to ensure that their trade policy should be separated from other policies. One suggested method as Raj Bhala, a trade expert, explains can be in form of use of clause 11 of Article XXIV of GATT which deals with the concept of regional trading arrangements. As prior to partition, the entire Indian subcontinent was seen as a single customs territory, the clause provides that the provisions of this Agreement shall not prevent the two countries from entering into special arrangements with respect to the trade between them, pending the establishment of their mutual trade relations on a definitive basis.As it is quite clear from the text of the provision, if India and Pakistan make use of this provision grant of any bilateral preferences between them will not be considered as a violation of any principle of WTO. Unfortunately, as Dr. Ranjan remarks, this has become a forgotten rule.

The countries can ensure better trading network by removing impediments to trade such as trade infrastructure and logistics, changes in their visa policy, easing cross border financial transactions etc. As Zareen F Naqvi, Director of Institutional Research at University of Fraser Valley, Canada, argues in his article, “both India and Pakistan need to tackle their restrictive visa regimes. A number of issues related to trade infrastructure and logistics can be done unilaterally such as the initiation of Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), more efficient customs processing at land border crossings, setting up or upgrading and warehousing, testing and security facilities, and setting up bank branches to ease financial transactions on both sides of the border.

As already proven above through various researches and surveys, trade has the potential to provide political stability to any volatile region. With continuous threat of full-fledged war lurking on both the nations, economic development cannot be ensured as most of the times these countries tend to focus on their military needs. Human development in both these countries still remains low on the HDI index. Today, the future of around 2 billion people in the world rests on few politicians in both these countries. The improvement in standards of living, poverty, employment, etc. rest a lot on the political willingness of the countries. It is the need of the hour to ensure that the two nuclear capable countries should not involve in a full-fledged war with each other as it would lead to a major catastrophe. The economic development of Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan do show us a path which follows the same narrative of freer trade between nations. Both these nations have to realise that trade ensures the active involvement of manufactures involved in export, civil societies and middle class in foreign relations. Once that is achieved, it would not be easy for any government to go for a fur fledged war as it is peace which ensures that the interests of these sections of the society are preserved.

Samarth Trigunayat is LLM graduate from South Asian University, New Delhi. South Asian University was established by SAARC member nations to enhance cooperation between the member states through the tool of education. The author is currently employed as Young Professional (Law) at Ministry of Commerce, Government of India. The author has previously worked as Assistant Professor at Faculty of Law, Shree Guru Gobind Singh Tricentenary University, Gurugram, India. His area of interest includes International Trade Law, International Investment Law, Feminist Jurisprudence and Constitutional Law. The author can be reached at: lawyer.samarth[at]gmail.com

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United World of Job Seekers and Job Creators Will Boost Recovery

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painting by Byron Anway

Why is there so much disconnect between entrepreneurial thinking and bureaucratic thinking? Has the world of education, certification, occupation divided us, have the organizational structures slotted us so wrongly, have the populace fragmented us and now our combined talents and productive mindsets are all going astray.  Why is technology confronting us on mindset issues, forcing us to stand up together to face post-pandemic recovery to deliver real productivity results? Can we review factors and try to come together towards rapid progress, fix and advance?

As an overview, across the world, people always struggle hard to acquire special skills and qualifications to pursue their desired goals, some end up as job seekers and some as job creators, but both types equally work hard, build economies, and create prosperity. However, it is extremely important to face this fact; “Job-Seekers” help build an organization while “Job-Creators” develop the real cause to create that organization in the first place. Study what the last 100 earth shattering entrepreneurs across the world did or observe some 100 small and medium businesses right in your own backyards, on exactly what they are doing.

As the post-pandemic recovery world morphs towards entrepreneurialism, this critical difference of mindsets now demands deeper understanding amongst the economic development leadership of nations and their multi-layered complexities of their management teams. After all bureaucracies and economic growth agencies are primarily highly-qualified job seekers themselves, but now facing establishing a “job-creator” economic thinking, therefore facing a new national agenda as if a chess game, where moving pieces randomly is not the game, strategic command on movement of each piece is victory. The brutality of the message is now exposed as wide-open global debate because post pandemic recovery will take no prisoners.

To create an army of job-creators, academia is not the solution; academic mindset on tackling entrepreneurialism is like scratching and sniffing from old case studies on famous job-creators, telling those stories as if their own, throwing in their own analysis to claim some belonging and highlighting the entrepreneurial errors and mistakes as their own special victories.  Always, never admitting the facts that it took special temperaments, zeal for venture, out of box thinking and guts to make those crazy moves while everyone else laughed, however, universities always tabling their own new improved strategies as the real correct and right way. Therefore, how many armies of Steve Jobs alike if they ever created, you decide. Business education is unnecessarily far too expensive and too disconnected. Know the fine differences in order to reshape economic progress.

Entrepreneurialism is neither academia born nor academic centric. However, observe how entrepreneurs always attract other mindsets and academia to join to carry out specials tasks, in comparisons where other mindsets will apply extreme reluctance to allow inviting entrepreneurial mindset in fear to exposure of their own business knowledge limits or facing any criticism by someone without any institutionalized certification center staging as a solo free thinker. Imagine how much laughter persisted what opposition created for entrepreneurs on their earth shattering ideas, from razor blade to treadmill or from bulb to mobile phone. 

This time around, on the line are the entire global business models of economic productivity, performance and profitability, juxtaposed with climate change and sustainability where ‘worklessness’ of the future and digitization will place the world upside down. Get ready for a war of mindsets. Critical thinking and lifelong learning will save occupationalism. The absence of the long awaited fourth industrial revolution is proof that unless mindsets are aligned we are going backwards.

Today, economies trapped, digitization stalled, small business crushed and middle class destroyed is the new post pandemic world. Unless such mindset differences are understood, the tug of war of creating powerful economies with entrepreneurial flavor will fail. Provided there is open mindedness, alliances with job-creator mindset will assist jobseeker centric bureaucracies currently surrounded by monstrous challenges allow immediate implementation of deployment ready solutions for national mobilization of entrepreneurialism to uplift midsize business economies.

Today, the majority of nations would like to save by shrinking their highly paid public service staff with hopes to transform them into an entrepreneurial mindset to become producers of goods and services and add to the local economic landscapes. However, despites funds available in some nations still no success as such narratives strangled by job seeker bureaucracies already closed the doors.

Just look around, nation-by-nation, why are their problems so similar, solutions so identical? Is this because the differences hidden between leadership styles committed as nation-builders or as nation-sellers?  Is it because jobseekers have already peaked on the pyramids of power, now at the top of the heap, their respective levels of incompetence make them unfunctional to grasp the new challenges and missing greatest market opportunities. The fact is with so many new and repeated elections, so many New Cabinet Changes and appointments, unless root cause issues brought into open, the local-global fiscal propositions keep sinking. 

Out there, somehow there is a global rise on mobilization of entrepreneurialism, the fact that world is starving at local grassroots prosperity levels, hungry at midsize economy level but gluttonized and partying in vomitoriums at the very untouchable top levels, nevertheless, the new awareness is cross-fertilizing at rapid speed. The whispers, murmurs, the trembling of the messages are still inaudible to the top leaders but a good positive change in the air. 

Recommendations: What will it take for the national economic development leadership along with all affiliated trade groups and agencies to open up to critical analysis of policies and development programs evaluated from new perspectives of entrepreneurial mindsets? What would it take such agencies to have some permanent authoritative and proven entrepreneurial representation of continuous dialogue to improve and adjust? What would it take to create high-level selective immersions of jobseekers’ mindsets to come closer to job-creator mindsets to combine talents and achieve extraordinary results in the marketplace? What will it take to have some closed, open, or national level debates to bring talents and ideas together as a national agenda? What will it take to apply the similar approach of Truth and Reconciliation, after all the damage to grassroots prosperity now visible from space. Time has come to bring our minds closer and not disperse them as conflicting enemies.

The day has arrived to face the change.  All mindsets are good but appreciating the difference and their respective strengths for special outcomes are critical. Working all like a team of various experts in a mutual goal is a huge victory. If during the last two years, such topics during pandemic recovery were never on your boardroom table, and mindset selection criteria never applied to determine the outcomes, you may be in a job-seekers centric enclave. Possibly, in deep silence already slotted in a wrong organization, should you now hastily leave the building? Should you help them? In any case, no further proof required. The future of pandemic economic recovery now demands a job-creator mindset. Select your mindset of your choice, acquire and add mastery as a prerequisite, and advance to newer heights.

The rest is easy  

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Economy

Sustainable Agriculture in Modern Society

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Now everybody is seeing the world is changing fast in this 21st century and many industries and modern buildings are also developing all over the world. But the land areas for farming are becoming narrower and narrower. Moreover, the global population is increasing rapidly and the earth becomes a crowded planet. But the younger people who are interested in agriculture are becoming less and less. There might be some young people who even think that they get foods from grocery stores because the younger generation are used to buy many kinds of ready-made foods such as fruits and vegetables easily from supermarkets. Recently, in the developed countries, the average age of many farmers is over 50 years old and the numbers of young farmers are decreasing. The shortage of young farmers can become a crisis in the future of the developed world.

In modern days, most young adults cannot see the difficult lives of farmers beyond the curtain. The farmers have to pass their whole life through a tough living in farming and sell their products at very low profit to many profiteering companies because they don’t have much choices. It is a sad story for farmers but truly happening in these modern days.

Today I would like to point out that we should not forget the role of agriculture which is very fundamental and essential for building a nation. Farming is an age-old profession that supported the settlement of human beings for thousands of years to survive on this planet. Agriculture is very important for the development of a nation because it provides the trading and employment, supply the foods and textiles and that can lead to the rise in gross domestic product (GDP) of a nation. Agriculture plays a crucial role in economy of a developing nation where majority of population is in rural areas and agriculture is the main source of job in many underdeveloped areas. Many families in developing countries live depending on farming for their livelihood. So, it can be even said that developing agriculture is an important step to reduce poverty and hunger in many developing countries. Agriculture support nutrients rich foods that are essential requirements for our healthy life because nutrients rich foods provide energy for our body, essential nutrients for our vital organs such as brain and heart etc, and enhance our immune system. So, agriculture is necessary for a flourishing and joyful life of human being.

Especially let’s see my home country, as data from Food and agriculture organization (FAO) of the United Nations, “The agriculture supports 37.8 % of gross domestic product of Myanmar, contributed to 25-30% of total export earnings and employs 70 % of the labour force”. Humans cannot survive without agriculture. When there is no more agriculture, it will end with starvation and collapse in economy. It will cause a serious failure in modern civilization.

Nowadays, modern farming is largely evolved into industrial agriculture where many kinds of chemical fertilizers are being used to induce massive production. Industrial agriculture is beneficial to economic development because it can cause the crops growing faster than in the traditional agriculture. The industrial agriculture can provide more enough foods for growing population in modern civilization. However, it is not sustainable because it cannot protect the benefits of the society and our green planet in the long run. Chemicals used in agriculture are destroying the soil where is left with damaged soil fertility and this area can’t be reused in the future. This is a huge affect to sustainability of our green environment.

Modern agriculture has many issues related to water scarcity, soil erosion, climate changes and etc. To be sustainable in agriculture, we must focus on solutions of these issues. The sustainable agriculture will focus on three bottom lines that is environmental, economical and social.

The sustainable agriculture involves many practices such as using the organic fertilizers in farming, growing drought resistant crops, breeding biodiversity in farms, modified irrigation systems and others. Sustainable agriculture is more suitable to practice for the future of the green earth than industrial agriculture. It is very important to promote awareness of sustainable agriculture and issues related to environmentally toxic practices in agricultures among local farmers. And I believe that it can cause many advantages for economic development if farmers can work systematically with sustainable practices in their farming and the local authority can provide farmers with more technological skills and lending some funding to practice sustainable ways in agriculture. With the willingness to participate for environmental heath at the enough profit for incomes of daily living life, I hope famers will become socially responsible persons.

And another one more point, in this digitalization era, we should certainly apply digital technologies in sustainable agriculture. By developing digital farming, it will help farmers to get easier access to source of many information related to agricultural practices. Government in developing countries should support to develop digital farming as rapidly as possible for the poor farmers to get proper profits and to work in environmentally friendly practices. Since poor countries already have enough labour force, they just need many financial aid and technology supports to grow into sustainable agriculture.

I believe that it is a responsibility for our humans that we should not forget something that had supported our existence on this earth. We should work out for development of traditional agriculture into modern agriculture with the best sustainable ways. As being a part of this society, we must help each other, we must protect the sustainability of this green earth, Biodiversity and this is also beneficial for long-term existence of our human beings on this earth. Let me end this talk by suggesting everyone to promote sustainable agriculture in your surrounding local farming.

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Economy

The Blazing Revival of Bitcoin: BITO ETF Debuts as the Second-Highest Traded Fund

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It seems like bitcoin is as resilient as a relentless pandemic: persistent and refusing to stay down. Not long ago, the crypto-giant lost more than half of its valuation in the aftermath of a brutal crackdown by China. Coupled with pessimism reflected by influencers like Elon Musk, the bitcoin plummeted from the all-time high valuation of $64,888.99 to flirt around the $30,000 mark in mere weeks. However, over the course of the last four months, the behemoth of the crypto-market gradually climbed to reclaim its supremacy. Today, weaving through national acceptance to market recognition, bitcoin could be the gateway to normalizing the elusive crypto-world in the traditional global markets: particularly the United States.

The recent bullish development is the launch of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF – the first Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund – on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading under the ticker BITO, the Bitcoin ETF welcomed a robust trading day: rising 4.9% to $41.94. According to the data compiled by Bloomberg, BITO’s debut marked it as the second-highest traded fund, behind BlackRock’s Carbon fund, for the first day of trading. With a turnover of almost $1 billion, the listing of BITO highlighted the demand for reliable investment in bitcoin in the US market. According to estimates on Tuesday, More than 24 million shares changed hands while BITO was one of the most-bought assets on Fidelity’s platform with more than 8,800 buy orders.

The bitcoin continued to rally, cruising over the lucrative launch of BITO. The digital currency rose to $64,309.33 on Tuesday: less than 1% below the all-time high valuation. In hindsight, the recovery seems commendable. The growing acceptance, albeit, has far more consequential attributes. The cardinal benefit is apparent: evidence of gradual acceptance by regulators. “The launch of ProShares’ bitcoin ETF on the NYSE provides the validation that some investors need to consider adding BTC to their portfolio,” stated Hong Fang, CEO of Okcoin. In simpler terms, not only would the listing allow relief to the crypto loyalists (solidifying their belief in the currency), but it would also embolden investors on the sidelines who have long been deterred by regulatory uncertainty. Thus, bringing larger, more rooted institutional investors into the crypto market: along with a surge of capital.

However, the surging acceptance may be diluting the rudimentary phenomenon of bitcoin. While retail investors would continue to participate in the notorious game of speculation via trading bitcoin, the opportunity to gain indirect exposure to bitcoin could divert the risk-averse investors. It means many loyalists could retract and direct towards BITO and other imminent bitcoin-linked ETFs instead of setting up a digital custodianship. Ultimately, it boils down to Bitcoin ETFs being managed by third parties instead of the investor: relenting control to a centralized figure. Moreover, with growing scrutiny under the eye of SECP, the steps vaguely intimate a transition to harness the market instead of liberalizing it: quiet oxymoronic to the entire decentralized model of cryptocurrencies.

Nonetheless, the listing of BITO is an optimistic development that would draw skeptics to at least observe the rampant popularity of the asset class. While the options on BITO are expected to begin trading on the NYSE Arca Options and NYSE American Options exchanges on Wednesday, other futures-based Bitcoin ETFs are on the cards. The surging popularity (and reluctant acceptance) amid tightening regulation could prove a turn of an era for the US capital markets. However, as some critics have cited, BITO is not a spot-based ETF and is instead linked to futures contracts. Thus, the restrain is still present as the regulators do not want a repeat of the financial crisis. Nevertheless, bitcoin has proved its deterrence in the face of skepticism. And if the BITO launch is to be marveled at, then the regulations are bound to adapt to the revolution that is unraveling in the modern financial reality.

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