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India and Visegrad Four: Meeting Each Other Halfway

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Members of the Visegrad Group (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia) are set on expanding cooperation with India. That such cooperation is of mutual interest was confirmed by Indian Foreign Minister Subramaniam Jaishankar’s visit to Hungary and Poland in August. Hungary and Poland pursue the most active foreign policy within the Visegrad Four.

This trend is not new – it clearly manifests itself in the policies of the Visegrad Group after the 2008 economic crisis. The Indian economy demonstrates an impressively fast growth rate (more than 7% annually). As it became clear in wake of the visit, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic want to cooperate with India in the transport, energy, agricultural and defense sectors, Hungary – in pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, and all together – in investment and research projects.

Significantly, unlike cooperation with China, cooperation with India does not present a political dilemma for these countries. For the West, India is a democratic state, while China is accused of violating democratic freedoms, and Sino-US economic negotiations are in limbo. In addition, a certain rapprochement between India and the USA against the background of the economic differences between China and the USA makes it more convenient for the Visegrad Four to expand cooperation with India.

Apparently, New Delhi and Beijing are becoming part of European competition. India, however, will have to work hard to strengthen its economic, political and cultural presence in Europe if it wants to catch up with Beijing, which began working with Europe earlier and has been doing it more successfully and dynamically.

India positions itself as a self-sufficient civilization striving to become a connecting link between Europe and Asia. In many ways, the EU has the same vision of India. Given the situation, fitting Indian-European relations into a wider geopolitical context is at odds with China’s civilizational regionalism – the desire to keep Asian policy within the framework of the wider-context Chinese civilization and its sphere of influence. Therefore, the appearance of new, Asian players in Europe is not welcomed by Beijing, although it does not declare it openly.

The prospect of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU deprives India of one of the most valuable allies in Europe. Hence the search for new partners within the EU. Countries of the Visegrad Group come handy and, to some extent, could compensate the loss. Poland is an ardent ally of the United States in the EU, the United States is India’s ally in Asia. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are more pro-German and could somewhat contribute to New Delhi’s cooperation with Berlin.

India is also guided by economic considerations. The Visegrad Four expands relations with Japan, South Korea, Brazil and other rapidly developing economies. The absence of India on this list seems illogical. The participants believe that the economic potential of the Visegrad Four is not used to maximum capacity: 95% of trade between India and the EU is provided by countries of “old” Europe.

Apart from all that, India needs diplomatic support for its desire to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Although a reform of this structure is still a matter of remote future and is hardly realistic, India continues to push for it. Poland performs the functions of a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council in 2018-2019. Both parties view diplomatic cooperation of Poland and the other four countries with India as mutually beneficial. The latest example of such cooperation is Poland’s protest against Pakistan’s intention to include the issue of Kashmir in the agenda of the UN Security Council.

What could present some obstacles to the rapid expansion of India’s extensive partnership with the Visegrad Four is certain disagreements over the future of Europe, as well as the orientation of the two main “Visegradians” – Hungary and Poland – to various international partners.

Hungary opposes the presence of American NGOs, the financial and political dominance of Brussels and Washington, as well as the EU migration policy, but advocates constructive relations with Russia and China to the point of participation in the Chinese “One Belt, One Road” Project.

Poland favors building up the US military presence in Europe and is against improving relations with Russia, but, like Hungary, it opposes migration policy and the financial dictatorship of Brussels. Warsaw has a restrained attitude to the One Belt, One Road Project for fear of spoiling Washington’s mood.

Slovakia and the Czech Republic speak for the development of trade and economic relations with Asian partners, but in a format that would not disrupt their interaction with the export-oriented German economy. Like Poland and Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic do not support the EU migration policy.

Under the circumstances, India will adhere to a nuance-based approach in relations with the Visegrad Four. In 2020, after Warsaw takes over the presidency of the Visegrad Four, it can be assumed that this will be the time for Poland to pursue its plans in cooperation with India. The Indian-Hungarian dialogue and relations between Slovakia and the Czech Republic will follow separate scenarios. 

From our partner International Affairs

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Eastern Europe

What Will Bring Generational Change to Georgia?

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Those who study modern Georgia often focus on large issues such as the country’s relations with Russia, aspirations to join NATO and the EU, or simply internal political processes.

What remains largely undiscussed and possibly with far reaching effects on the future of Georgia, is the generational change.

Georgia is amidst a generational change. True, the occasional protests which have taken place across Georgia throughout 2019 often featured youngsters of various political affiliation, still the critical mass of large-scale demonstrations would be filled by much older generations (born in the 1970s and 1980s). However, this is bound to change in the coming few years. Those born after the collapse of the Soviet Union will approximately, by 2024, dominate the street protests, whether small or large.

They will be increasingly opposition-minded, protesting even a small scale mistake by any government ruling Georgia. This is not to say that they will be linked to any concrete party; their actions will be more characterized by traditional activism so common in the West.

Any future Georgian government will experience difficulties staving off the demonstrations, which in turn will lead to much higher responsibilities from political forces. This will also be a generation which will not remember the 1990s or United National Movement’s rule (2003-2012), but will be mainly forged in 2012-2020/22.

On a much higher level, the 2020s will be also characterized by gradual changes in Georgia’s ruling class (even if we presume it to be a very divided one). Those born in the 1980s and 1990s will constitute the absolute majority of low- and mid-level positions in government and non-governmental organizations. This will have a major impact on how the country will be run. It is likely that more attention will be paid to establishing a more effective administration, improving the level of education, economy, and the military. The new Georgian elite, predominantly born in a post-Soviet country, will also be more amenable to public demands.

Those generational changes will also affect major Georgian parties. Members aged just under 30 will eventually strive to gain bigger roles inside the parties. However, since the party leaderships will be unwilling to cede their primary roles, there is a big likelihood we will see the creation of a number of new splinter parties. Thus, one of the major certainties for the 2020s is a sharp increase in pro-Western parties.

Current opposition forces are also likely to lose whatever popularity they enjoy, as younger generations will adhere to newer, predominantly pro-Western, political entities.

Major influence will be put on the Georgian political elite, which I discussed in earlier pieces. Though currently there is an extremely divided political elite in the country, in the 2020s there will be a gradual increase in coordination between different new political groups on basic foreign and internal state interests. This will be a major rupture with the developments Georgia has experienced since the 1990s.

The generational change will also have a gradual but nevertheless big geopolitical influence. One of the features will be a steep decline in the knowledge of the Russian language and general attraction the Russian culture has had for older generations in Georgia. This will mean that pro-Russian forces will lose even the slightest attraction they currently enjoy in Georgia.

These generational changes are directly tied to the regional geopolitics. Though Moscow influences Tbilisi through its military presence in Georgia’s Abkhazia and Tskhinvali regions, on the ground the balance is shifting significantly and not in Russia’s favor. Eventually, it all will come down to what culture people are more attracted to. It is based on this that grand strategic shifts or allegiances to alliances are made.

Author’s note: first published in Georgia Today

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Eastern Europe

Lithuanians fight for silence

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The Ministry of Defence of Denmark has made an important decision supporting human rights of Danish citizens.

Thus, Denmark’s new fleet of F-35s, which are to replace the F-16s currently in use, will arrive at Skrydstrup air base in South Jutland starting in 2023. When the new air force is finally ready, far more neighbours will be bothered by the noise exceeding limit values, calculations by the Danish Defence Ministry show. The 100 worst-affected homes will have to suffer noise levels of over 100 decibels, which is comparable to a rock concert or a busy motorway.

The noise pollution from F-35s is projected to exceed that of the F-16s, though noise pollution from F-16 also bother locals. Discontent of citizens reduced their confidence not only in the Ministry of Defence but in their current government and NATO as well.

Thus decided to compensate the victims.This step has improved the image of the armed forces and showed the population the care that the Ministry of Defense shows to a residents of the country.

A similar situation has developed in Lithuania. Lithuanian citizens demand compensation from the Ministry of National Defense due to high noise level made by fighter flights from Šiauliai airbase as part of NATO’s Baltic Air Policing.

Lithuania is a NATO member state and contribute to the collective defence of the Alliance. Thus, Šiauliai airbase hosts fighter jets that conduct missions of the NATO’s Baltic Air Policing.
Citizens also initiated on-line petitions in order to attract supporters and demonstrate their strong will to fight violation of human rights in Lithuania.

According to peticijos.lt, the petition was viewed more than 5 thousand times. This shows great interest of Lithuanian society in the subject.At the same time existing control over any political activity, as well as silence of current government and Ministry of National Defence don’t allow people openly support such idea. All websites with petitions demand the provision of personal data. Nobody wants to be punished and executed.

The lack of response is not a very good position of the Lithuanian Ministry of Defence in case Lithuania wants to prove the existence of democracy. Denmark is a prime example of a democratic society caring for its people.

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Eastern Europe

Georgia Returns to the Old New Silk Road

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Georgia has historically been at the edge of empires. This has been both an asset and a hindrance to the development of the country. Hindrance because Georgia’s geography requires major investments to override its mountains, gorges and rivers. An asset because Georgia’s location allowed the country from time to time to position itself as a major transit territory between Europe and the Central Asia, and China further away.

This geographic paradigm has been well in play in shaping Georgia’s geopolitical position even since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the rise of modern technologies. Thereafter, Georgia has been playing a rebalancing game by turning to other regional powers to counter the resurgent Russia. Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran (partly) and bigger players such as the EU and the US are those which have their own interest in the South Caucasus. However, over the past several years yet another power, China, with its still evolving Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has been slowly emerging in the South Caucasus.

This how a new Silk Road concept gradually emerged at the borders of Georgia. In fact, a closer look at historical sources from the ancient, medieval or even 15th-19th cc. history of Georgia shows an unchanged pattern of major trade routes running to the south, west, east and north of Georgia. Those routes were usually connected to outer Middle East, Central Asia, and the Russian hinterland.

Only rarely did the routes include parts of the Georgian land and, when it happened, it lasted for merely a short period of time as geography precluded transit through Georgia: the Caucasus Mountains and seas constrained movement, while general geographic knowledge for centuries remained limited.

It was only in the 11th-12th cc. that Georgian kings, David IV, Giorgi III and Queen Tamar, spent decades of their rule trying to gain control over neighboring territories with the goal to control the famous Silk Roads. Since, foreign invasions (Mongols, Ottomans, Persians, Russians) have largely prevented Georgia from playing a major transit role for transcontinental trade.

This lasted until the break-up of the Soviet Union. After 1991, Georgia has returned to its positioning between the Black and Caspian seas, between Central Asia and Eastern Europe. Major roads, pipelines and railway lines go through Georgian territory. Moreover, major works are being done to expand and build existing and new Georgian ports on the Black Sea with the potential to transform Georgia into a sea trade hub.

A good representation of Georgia’s rising position on the Silk Road was a major event held in Tbilisi on October 22-23 when up to 2000 politicians, potential investors from all over the world, visited the Georgian capital. The event was held for the third time since 2015 and attracted due attention. In total, 300 different meetings were held during the event.

The hosting of the event underscores how Georgia has recently upped its historical role as a regional hub connecting Europe and Asia. On the map, it is in fact the shortest route between China and Europe. There is a revitalization of the ancient Silk Road taking place in Georgia. This could in turn make the country an increasingly attractive destination for foreign investment. Indeed, the regional context also helps Tbilisi to position itself, as Georgia has Free Trade Agreements with Turkey, the CIS countries, the EFTA and China and a DCFTA with the European Union, comprising a 2.3 billion consumer market.

Thus, from a historical perspective, the modern Silk Road concept emanating from China arguably represents the biggest opportunity Georgia has had since the dissolution of the unified Georgian monarchy in 1490 when major roads criss-crossed the Georgian territory. In the future, when/if successive Georgian governments continue to carry out large infrastructural projects (roads, railways, sea ports), Tbilisi will be able to use those modern ‘Silk Roads’ to its geopolitical benefit, namely, gain bigger security guarantees from various global and regional powers to uphold its territorial integrity.

Author’s note: First published in Georgia Today

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