The raging trade war between China and the US is the culmination of a decade-long phase of speculation and rumour-mongering about the possibility of some kind of conflict between the two states. A Peloponnesian War type of scenario had been almost unanimously predicted; with a rising China taking on the role of Sparta in a battle for dominance against Athens, here representing the US. Can China and the US escape the Thucydides trap? This question had been the subject of much inconclusive debate until the contrary was proven right when Donald Trump ascended to the highest office of America and immediately set out to tame China’s growth.
While this type of contemporary warfare may not be as grim or blood-adorned like the Peloponnesian War, its significance is tantamount. All through history, states rose to dominance through bloody warfare but China’s peaceful rise has changed the rules of the game and inadvertently ignited a trade war. Indications show that the war may go on for some time as both countries are not willing to compromise on their respective comparative advantages. Furthermore, the fact that this war is not just about trade but political dominance is not lost on neither of the conflicting sides. However, as things stand, politically, China has the upper-hand in the trade war and here is why;
For starters, the American society has never been as polarised as it became after Donald Trump won the presidential election. His “Make America Great Again” mantra had embedded within it quasi-racist ideologies that fractured the ethnically diverse American society. His victory not only surprised the world but shook the very foundation of western liberal democracy itself as many began to question its merits if such a man could become the most powerful man in the ‘free world’. While there is some validity to his quest of balancing the $500 Billion a year trade deficit between China and the US and addressing the US$1.11 Trillion debt that America owes China, the task is much more complex for Trump to deal with when he lacks considerable support domestically and internationally. Trump is fighting China’s rise by attempting to slow down its growth all the while facing excessive opposition from key domestic and external stakeholders that have no choice but to align with the popular anti-Trump sentiment. In America, the gravity of the trade war is then diluted and relegated to the underbelly of all other Trumpist antics like the construction of the Mexico border wall or his nonchalance over the climate change issue. The conflict has morphed largely into an identity issue and has raised Chinese nationalism; which has made it such that it would be political suicide for the CPC to give in to Trump’s demands.
Secondly, The US has been China’s largest trading partner for some time and the pangs of the trade war have without a doubt been felt by both parties almost commensurately. China as an exporting country is reported to have reached a 17 year low in industrial production in July due to the Trade war. The US, the largest consumerist country, accounting for 29 per cent of world market is already feeling the effects the form of higher commodity prices, lower interest rates at banks and instability in the stock market. China however has already set in motion, projects that will in the long term boost its global export market share and considerably reduce its dependence on US markets. The Belt and Road Initiative is a connectivity project that is tipped to considerably boost Chinese trade globally as even in the heat of the trade war, China has been able to woo big European countries like Italy into signing on to the BRI.
Finally, domestic state-society complexes will continue to tilt to the side of the society especially for western style democracies. The domestic electorate and other stakeholders are seldom adept at understanding the intricacies of international politics and the challenges associated with interacting in the international system in a way that conceives or retains comparative advantages. Not only are there are many intervening variables that affect policy formulation and execution in America, there is almost always opposition from other political elements that seek relevance by doing so and this is not an issue peculiar to America but western democracy itself. China on the other hand has cultivated comparatively more effective methods that still ensure stakeholder and society participation. The China model gets a lot of stick from western pundits and observers but if recent history has proven anything, it’s that it gets things done swiftly. China’s patent-worthy people-centred approach can largely be credited for the CPC’s effectiveness, maintaining stability and raising more than 700 million people out of poverty. This will continue to keep the Chinese society united and ready to endure the pangs of the trade war.
However, the trade war, in all fairness seeks to address genuine concerns pertaining to China’s trade practices but the Chinese cannot be faulted for not giving in. Trump’s unmuzzled social media rants and dogmatic approach only serve to inspire Chinese nationalism and support for the CPC as they refuse to cow to his demands. There may be a way to negotiate a win-win arrangement on the trade issue but definitely not while Trump is still president.
