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“Business as usual” could lead to catastrophic global sea-level rise

MD Staff

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As hurricane season bears down on many people and communities this month, one of the key factors linked to increasing severity of a storm’s impacts—sea level rise—sees new predictions emerge for “worst-case scenarios”.

Mathematicians and scientists calculate likely and possible outcomes based on probabilities, with computers able to crunch ever larger volumes of data to come up with more accurate predictions.

Climate modelling has improved enormously in the past 20 years, and where predictions of catastrophe are distinct—as opposed to remote—we should take note.

In Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America in May 2019, scientists conclude that if global temperatures reach 5°C above pre-industrial era levels, there is a one in 20 chance that global mean sea level rise could exceed two metres.

A 5°C temperature rise is consistent with unchecked emissions growth.

“This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report [2013],” notes the study.

Such a rise over the next 80 years could trigger the gradual displacement of millions of people around the world and swallow up an area of land three times the size of Texas.

Much of the land losses would be in important food-growing areas such as the Nile delta. Coastal communities, ports and low-lying countries like Bangladesh would be hard hit. Large numbers of small islands would disappear. Major global cities, including London, New York and Shanghai would end up, at least partially, underwater.

Under a “business as usual” scenario where temperatures rise by 5°C, the picture is even grimmer beyond 2100, with a projected increase by 7.5 metres.

A New Climate for Peace: Taking Action on Climate and Fragility Risks, commissioned by members of the G7 group of nations, outlines seven “climate-fragility” risks that pose serious threats to global stability in the next decades.

One of the risks identified is rising sea levels: “Rising sea levels are threats to the economic and physical viability of low-lying areas, as land and coastal resources are gradually lost. This can lead to social disruption, displacement and migration, as well as disagreements over maritime boundaries and ocean resources.”

UN Secretary-General António Guterres recently warned: “The loss of ice in Greenland and Antarctica is accelerating, meaning that sea levels will rise a full metre by 2100 if nothing is done to avoid it.”

Important warning

Through its Joint Unit with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, UNEP at the request of governments, seconds disaster assessment experts to areas affected by climate-related emergencies. This was the case in 2017, after Hurricane Maria struck Dominica and Puerto Rico, as well as in April 2019 after cyclones Idai and Kenneth hit Mozambique.

In collaboration with United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), and with funding from the Global Environment Facility, UNEP supported the Government of Tanzania to build extensive seawalls along the country’s coast, including over 2,400m of defence structures. The project, which was completed in June 2018, was part of a broader UNEP initiative to build climate resilience by improving natural ecosystems.

UNEP also works with partners to highlight scientific issues of emerging concern, for example, in its annual Frontiers Report.

The climate crisis is gaining the attention of the world’s media and politicians. Several countries have declared climate emergencies, and climate emergency declarations have reportedly been made in several hundred jurisdictions and local governments covering over 100 million citizens.  

Nineteen countries and 32 cities have joined the Carbon Neutrality Coalition, committing to take concrete and ambitious action to achieve the aims of the Paris Climate Agreement. This means they aim to be carbon neutral by 2050. The world’s largest container shipping company as well as dozens of big-name fashion brands have made similar commitments.

“With around 40 per cent of the world’s population living within 100 km of a coast, we need to do everything possible to make this scenario less likely and prevent us from reaching tipping points beyond which it will not be possible to prevent runaway climate change,” Hagelberg adds.

Over 6 million people currently live in coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise today. Even in a 2°C global heating scenario, 10 million more would be affected, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

“Ocean science plays a crucial role in achieving sustainable development and UN-Oceans remains committed to playing its part in enhancing science to achieve this objective,” said Miguel de Serpa Soares, Under-Secretary-General for Legal Affairs and United Nations Legal Counsel, and UN-Oceans Focal Point, in a statement on 13 June 2019 in New York.

UN Environment

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Electric mobility could boost green jobs as part of the COVID-19 recovery in Latin America

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The transition to electric mobility could help Latin America and Caribbean countries to reduce emissions and fulfill their commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change, while generating green jobs as part of their recovery plans from the COVID-19 crisis, according to a new study.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, “Electric Mobility 2019: Status and Opportunities for Regional Collaboration in Latin America and the Caribbean,” analyzes the latest developments in 20 countries in the region and highlights the growing leadership of cities, companies, and civil associations in promoting new e-mobility technologies.

Though still a recent development, electrification of the public transport sector is happening at high speed in several countries in the region, says the study financed by the European Commission through the EUROCLIMA + Programme and the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) and renewable energy company Acciona.

Chile stands outs with the largest fleet of electric buses in the region, with more than 400 units, while Colombia is expected to incorporate almost 500 electric buses in Bogotá, its capital. Other Colombian cities, like Cali and Medellín, have join Ecuador’s Guayaquil and Brazil’s Sao Paulo in introducing electric buses.

Increased efficiency, lower operation and maintenance costs of electric buses, as well as growing public concern around the impacts of road transport-related emissions on human health and the environment are the main drivers behind this transition in public transport, according to the study.

The transport sector is responsible for 15 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in Latin America and the Caribbean and is one of the main drivers of poor air quality in cities, which causes more than 300,000 premature deaths a year in the Americas, according to the World Health Organization.

“In recent months we have seen a reduction of air pollution in cities in the region due to lockdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. But these improvements are only temporary. We must undertake a structural change so that our transportation systems contribute to the sustainability of our cities,” says Leo Heileman, UNEP Regional Director in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The report calls on decision-makers to prioritize the electrification of public transport, especially when updating the old bus fleets that run through the large cities in the region. There is fear of a “technology lock-in” over the next 7 to 15 years if authorities choose to renew old fleets with new internal combustion vehicles that will continue to pollute the air and cause severe health damages.

Some countries are already paving the way to ensure a transition to sustainable transport. Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Panamá have designed national strategies on electric mobility, while Argentina, Dominican Republic, México, Paraguay are finalizing their own plans, according to the report.

More than 6,000 new light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) were registered in Latin America and the Caribbean, between January 2016 and September 2019, according to the report. The need for charging infrastructure has boosted new ventures and services. For example, e-corridors, already running in Brazil, Chile, México, and Uruguay, allow users to extend the autonomy of their EVs by making use of public fast charging point networks.   

Shared mobility businesses focusing on electric bicycles and skateboards are also being developed in at least nine countries in the region.

The development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure has the potential to foster new investments and jobs, which are key to COVID-19 recovery efforts in the region. 

The report calls on governments to develop a clear medium- and long-term roadmap that provides legal certainty for private investment and highlights the role of sustainable mobility in power grid expansion plans, in line with climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

The 2015 Agreement, signed to date by nearly 200 countries, aims to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The report was produced with inputs from the Latin American Association for Sustainable Mobility (ALAMOS) and contributions from the Center for Urban Sustainability in Costa Rica.

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Report: More protection for our seas and oceans is needed

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The Commission adopted today a report on the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) which reveals that, while the EU’s framework for marine environmental protection is one of the most comprehensive and ambitious worldwide, persistent challenges remain, such as excess nutrients, underwater noise, plastic litter, and other types of pollution as well as unsustainable fishing. This message is further reinforced in the European Environment Agency’s “Marine Messages II” also published today.

Virginijus Sinkevičius, Commissioner in charge of the Environment, Fisheries and Oceans, said “This report and the accompanying EEA Marine Messages confirm that we need to step up action to protect our seas and oceans. We have made progress, for example in the field of sustainable fisheries, but we need additional efforts and stop the irresponsible pollution of our seas. I note with regret that EU Member States will not achieve the Good Environmental Status they were legally required to achieve across all their marine waters by 2020 and that, for some marine regions, efforts required are substantial. The Commission will launch a review of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, to see what has worked and what has no’t, and act upon the shortcomings identified. Protecting our seas and oceans is an integral part of the European Green Deal, and it is the precondition for our fishermen and fisherwomen to provide us with healthy and sustainable seafood also in the future and therefore deserves our continued attention across policy areas”.

Hans Bruyninckx, Executive Director of the European Environment Agency, said “Our seas and marine ecosystems are suffering as a result of years of severe over-exploitation and neglect. We may soon reach a point of no return, but, as our report confirms, we still have a chance to restore our marine ecosystems if we act decisively and coherently and strike a sustainable balance between the way we use of seas and our impact on the marine environment. In this context, the new EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2030 and other elements of the European Green Deal bring must guide urgent and coherent action for protection and restoration to be underway.”

The MSFD report paints a mixed picture of the state of Europe’s seas. Almost half of Europe’s coastal waters are subject to intense eutrophication. Although EU rules regulating chemicals have led to a reduction in contaminants, there has been an increased accumulation of plastics and plastic chemical residues in most of the marine species. Thanks to the EU’s common fisheries policy, nearly all landings in the North-East Atlantic come from healthy stocks. This is however not yet the case in the Mediterranean, for which more efforts are needed.  

The EEA’s Marine Messages II report, which feeds into the Commission’s review, shows that historic and, in some cases, current use of our seas is taking its toll resulting in changes in the composition of marine species and habitats to changes in the seas’ overall physical and chemical make-up. It suggests solutions that can help the EU achieve its goal of clean, healthy and productive seas, mainly through ecosystem-based management. It also adds that there are signs of marine ecosystem recovery in some areas as a result of significant, often decade-long, efforts to reduce certain impacts like those caused by contaminants, eutrophication, and overfishing.

Background

The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has provided a push towards a better understanding of the pressures and impacts of human activities on the sea, and their implications for marine biodiversity, their habitats, and the ecosystems they sustain. The knowledge gained from implementing this Directive was, for example, a driving force leading to the adoption of the Single Use Plastics Directive. It has led to increased cooperation among littoral Member States of the four European sea regions, as well as across marine regions. As a result non-EU Member States also aim to achieve good environmental status or its equivalent.

The Directive requires that Member States set up regionally-coordinated strategies in order to achieve clean, healthy and productive seas. This overarching goal, referred to as “Good Environmental Status”, is determined over a number of so-called ‘descriptors’ (e.g. biodiversity, fisheries, eutrophication, contaminants, litter, underwater noise). It is a key piece of legislation that protects and preserves marine biodiversity and its habitats, it is therefore an important tool to implement the 2030 Biodiversity and Farm to Fork Strategies and a major contributor to achieving the Zero-Pollution ambition at sea. It is also closely linked to the upcoming Strategies for Sustainable Chemicals and Smart and Sustainable Transport.

The MSFD must be reviewed by mid-2023 and where necessary, amendments will be proposed. The review will further analyse the achievements and challenges to environmental protection of European Seas in accordance with the Commission’s better regulation agenda and will be carried out in parallel with a review of the Common Fisheries Policy.

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Sadeem International Wins Innovate4Climate Top Prize for 2020

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Today during a live virtual contest Innovate4Climate, the World Bank Group’s flagship event on climate change, announced Sadeem International as the winner of its second Pitch Hub Competition. Sadeem – focusing on early warning solutions for flash floods in urban environments – beat out over 400 applications from around the world.

This year’s challenge focused on climate-smart cities, with innovations required to be at Minimal Viable Product stage, to help cities become low-carbon and/or climate-resilient across a range of sectors: energy, food/agriculture, mobility/transportation, waste/water, fintech. Solutions had to demonstrate potential for climate change mitigation or adaptation, and that they were feasible, with a clear value proposition, implementable and scalable.

The winning startup and four other finalists were chosen after evaluation by 40 expert reviewers and multiple rounds to assess its viability.

“Participating in this competition was a really enriching experience; the level of exposure and networking potential is unique. It is also really refreshing to see that every day there are more and more startups aligning business with climate innovations. We are so happy as a team for getting this prize!”, said Esteban Sanchez Canepa, Co-Founder and CTO at Sadeem International. “We have a commitment to keep addressing the urban and climate challenges of our generation”.

The winning startup will receive Amazon Web Services credits worth $30,000, with the runner up and third finalist receiving $20,000 and $10,000 respectively. The top three winners will receive invitations to major industry events and training opportunities. All 5 finalists will be part of Innovate4Climate’s Startup Incubation Bootcamp Program, designed and facilitated by partner, The Venture City, and will be invited by Innovate4Climate to meet with potential investors and venture capital firms and will have access to Innovate4Climate’s 2021 event. Sadeem also won the audience choice category.

“It is really inspiring to see climate-smart innovations and new approaches to addressing climate change for urban communities”, said Bernice van Bronkhorst, Global Director, Climate Change, World Bank. “The kinds of inventive solutions we’ve seen today from this group of entrepreneurs are a great opportunity not only for communities tackling climate change but also for creative entrepreneurs delivering solutions that can work, and the World Bank’s Innovate4Climate team is pleased to support their efforts.”

This year’s competition was held virtually with finalists submitting recorded pitches that were reviewed by the judging panel, followed by a virtual Q&A between judges and competitors. The judging panel comprised Riyong Kim (EIT Climate-KIC), Dr. Tara Shirvani (EBRD), Assaf Wahrhaft (UpWest), Martin Wainstein (Yale OpenLab), Vikram Widge (Climate Policy Initiative).

“All the finalists this year offered innovative solutions to address climate change, with several harnessing state-of-the-art technologies. It was a difficult decision, but it seems appropriate that the winner was the one that can help cities become more pro-actively resilient”, said Vikram Widge, Senior Advisor, Climate Finance, Climate Policy Initiative, part of the judging panel.

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