Morocco enjoys an extraordinary geo-strategic position thanks to its Mediterranean Atlantic coastline and its proximity to the European continent, but at the same time, the Moroccan diplomatic influence comes from its occupation of Western Sahara, which is considered as lungs and a Gateway for all connection of Morocco with Africa across the road of El Guergarate. This situation has direct geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences on Moroccan relations with the European Union and Sub Saharan Africa.
Morocco and the European Union (EU) are bound by an association agreement signed in 1996 and entered into force in 2000, which is concretized in October 2008, by an “advanced status”.
In this context, the 14th meeting of the EU Association Council with Morocco of 27 June 2019, witnessing a new European approach to the issue of Western Sahara, which has been relegated to the second plan, without any declaration that respects the inalienable right of the Saharawi people to self-determination. It must be admitted, that only the European Court of Justice, which has an indisputable position respecting the international law of non-self-governing territories in the case of Western Sahara.
Indeed, the judgment of 21 December 2016 of the CJEU on the EU-Morocco agricultural agreement (Polisario v. Council), and that of 27 February 2018 on the fisheries agreement (Western Sahara Campaign judgment), distinguish the territory of Western Sahara from Moroccan territory.
However, on 16 July 2018, the EU Council of Foreign Ministers adopted the amendments to the protocols on agricultural products of the EU-Morocco Association Agreement, which have the effect of extending its scope to the territory of Western Sahara. The text was approved by the European Parliament on 16 January 2019. Thus born the new position of the EU in favour of Morocco and against the interests of the Saharawi people.
The reasons for the EU’s position are purely strategic and economic
If in post-imperialism the power is vital for the defence of peace, however, be aware that at the age of postmodernism, the use of force is a failure of policy rather than an instrument of policy. The principal objective of foreign policy is to maintain peace and prosperity.
You have to know, at every crisis between Morocco and the EU concerning the Western Sahara issue, it is Morocco that wins politically, because it has other elements of the game such as immigration, security, terrorism, smuggling, cannabis and drugs ,to decrease the risk of these all threatening, EU help Morocco to play the role of the guardian for European security, and the only compensation for Morocco is the change of the EU position in favour of Moroccan thesis.
With the same idea, it is the European companies and especially those of France and Spain that take advantage of the natural resources of Western Sahara, in complicity with the Moroccan authorities whether in agriculture, fishing, phosphates or other metals. But there is another factor, that pushes the EU to change his position.
The divergence between the Polisario Front and Morocco push EU to impose its agenda
It is important to make clear, that Morocco is not the administering Power, but the Occupying Power, with a legal status similar to that of Israel in the occupied Palestinian territories. The United Nations has never recognized Morocco as the administering power, in fact, has on several occasions disavowed such an occupation.
Since the blockage of the referendum process by Morocco in 1993 (hypothetically where can the Saharawi people choose their destiny), and despite the negotiations and the good offices of UN, the two parties Morocco and Polisario Front are far from choosing the path of reconciliation.
In fact, the Moroccan approach, finds its origin in the idea of Clausewitz, for who war was the continuation of policy. On the other hand, the approach of the Polisario Front accommodated with that of Sun Tzu, the Chinese Taoist military philosopher, who argued that the best war was one that did not have to fight.
This situation has led the EU to choose a new approach.
The EU solution is based on the political approach of enlarging the system
The end of the cold war and the subsequent development was caused by the defeat of the Soviet domestic system has consecrated the victory of the American capitalist system. It is in this sense that the EU wants to strengthen its domestic affairs to have strong diplomacy outside the EU. To exercising influence abroad, you must obtain power at home.
George Kennan had already noticed, ” what must always be accompanied by, or be made subordinate to, a different sort of undertaking, aimed at widening the horizons and changing the motives of men”. We think this observation of the famous American diplomacy, summarizes the diplomacy followed by the EU over Western Sahara since the advent of the Moroccan- European association.
Likewise, the remark of Jean Monnet one of the instigators of the creation of the EU stipulates when you have a problem you cannot solve, enlarge the context. For the UE it is a tactical equation, to find other temporary alternatives solutions against the cardinal principles of international law that govern the relations between different sovereigns states (Morocco and SADR) ,in order to engage larger interests.
You have to notice, the absence of a conflict management policy related to the Maghreb area, whether from a point of view of the military, political, economic and cultural, with the exception of 5+5 dialogue( and where the Saharawi’s are not present), suggests that the European approach is far to be unanimous because of the contradictions of interest between Northern Europe and those of South. The Nordic countries are for the decolonization of Western Sahara, while those of South are for a negotiated solution according to realpolitik situation.
There are other differences of opinion between Germany and France, for example,if Germany attaches greater importance to respect UN resolutions and respect international law by using the soft power in all its forms of influence, persuasion or negotiation, instead of, France maintains a traditional approach of military design and in a colonial vision.
However, it is important to mention, that the linkage between economic cooperation and conflict resolution, could lead to a definitive peace agreement between Morocco and Polisario Front, if the EU pushes Morocco and SADR after their accession to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), to join an economical sharing in order to find a peaceful solution to their territorial dispute.
Finally, can the EU come to the same conclusion like John Bolton the security advisor of President Trump, when he say( in a statement to the US magazine on Dec. 13, 2018, on the sidelines of the presentation of the new US strategy in Africa) “ we must think of the people of Western Sahara, think of the Saharawis, many of whom are still in refugee camps near Tindouf, in the Sahara desert, and we must allow these people and their children to return. and have normal lives”.
‘Full scale’ humanitarian crisis unfolding in Ethiopia’s Tigray
A “full-scale humanitarian crisis” is unfolding as thousands of refugees flee ongoing fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region each day to seek safety in eastern Sudan, the UN refugee agency (UNHCR) reported on Tuesday.
More than 27,000 have now crossed into Sudan through crossing points in Kassala and Gedaref states, as well as a new location further south at Aderafi, where Ethiopian refugees started crossing over the weekend, according to UNHCR.
The scale of the influx is the worst that part of the country has seen in over 20 years, according to the agency.
“Women, men and children have been crossing the border at the rate of 4,000 per day since 10 November, rapidly overwhelming the humanitarian response capacity on the ground,” said Babar Baloch, UNHCR spokesperson, briefing reporters in Geneva.
“Refugees fleeing the fighting continue to arrive exhausted from the long trek to safety, with few belongings”, he added.
According to news reports, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has indicated the military operation that was launched in response to the reported occupation of a Government military base by Tigrayan forces nearly two weeks ago, would continue, although he said it was now in its “final phase”.
‘Needs continue to grow’
UN agencies, along with relief partners have ramped up assistance – delivering food rations, hot meals and clean water, as well as setting up latrines and temporary shelters. They are also supporting the Sudanese Government in its response. But the needs continue to grow.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) is also supporting other humanitarian workers in its response, providing fuel for vehicles and generators in remote locations. The UN Humanitarian Air Service, managed by WFP, has also increased flights from three times per week to daily flights for aid workers.
Since Saturday, UNHCR has relocated 2,500 refugees from the border to Um Raquba settlement site, in eastern Sudan. There is however, a “critical need” to identify more sites so that refugees can be relocated away from the border and can access assistance and services, said Mr. Baloch.
‘On standby’ in Tigray
Meanwhile in the Tigray region of Ethiopia itself, lack of electricity, telecommunications, fuel and cash, continue to severely hamper any humanitarian response, the UNHCR spokesperson said.
“After nearly two weeks of conflict, reports of larger numbers of internally displaced grow daily, while the lack of access to those in need, coupled with the inability to move in goods to the region, remain major impediments to providing assistance,” he said.
UNHCR and partners are on standby to provide assistance to the displaced in Tigray, including basic items, when access and security allow.
The conflict is also a major ongoing concern for the Eritrean refugee population of nearly 100,000 in Tigray, who are reliant on assistance from UNHCR and partners.
“Potential for further displacement of refugees inside the country is increasingly a real possibility … The humanitarian situation as result of this crisis is growing rapidly” he warned, reiterating UNCHR’s call for peace and urge all parties to respect the safety and security for all civilians in Tigray.
Russia to Build Naval Facility in Sudan
Emerging from the first Russia-Africa Summit held in Sochi a year ago, Russia will make one huge stride by establishing a naval facility in Sudan. This marks its maritime security presence in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea region. Sharing a northern border with Egypt, Sudan is located on the same strategic coastline along the Red Sea.
According to the executive order, the published document says “the proposal from the government of the Russian Federation to sign an agreement between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Sudan on creating a facility of the Navy of the Russian Federation in the territory of the Republic of Sudan be adopted.”
It also authorizes “the Defense Ministry of Russia to sign the aforementioned agreement on behalf of the Russian Federation.” The document stipulates that a maximum of four warships may stay at the naval logistics base, including “naval ships with the nuclear propulsion system on condition of observing nuclear and environmental safety norms.”
Earlier, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved the draft agreement on establishing a naval logistics base in Sudan and gave instructions to submit the proposal to the president for signing. The draft agreement on the naval logistics facility was submitted by Russia’s Defense Ministry, approved by the Foreign Ministry, the Supreme Court, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the Investigative Committee of Russia and preliminary agreed with the Sudanese side.
As the draft agreement says, the Russian Navy’s logistics facility in Sudan “meets the goals of maintaining peace and stability in the region, is defensive and is not aimed against other countries.”
The signing of the document by the Russia president shows the positive results of negotiations, the possibility of constructing a naval base in the region, over the years with African countries along the Red Sea and in the Indian Ocean.
During a visit by then-President of Sudan Omar al-Bashir to Moscow in November 2017, agreements were reached on Russia’s assistance in modernizing the Sudanese armed forces. Khartoum also said at the time it was interested in discussing the issue of using Red Sea bases with Moscow.
On the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Russia had a naval base in Somalia during the Soviet days. Currently, Djibouti hosts Chinese and American naval bases. China’s military base in Djibouti was set up to support five mission areas. India is another Asian nation that has increased its naval presence in Africa. In order to protect its commercial sea-lanes from piracy, it has established a network of military facilities across the Indian Ocean.
Will South Sudan follow its northern neighbour’s lead?
As the world watches to see whether President Trump accepts the US election results, few have noticed thatcivil war is looming in Ethiopia, after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he was sending troops to the Tigray province. This imperils not only Africa’s second most populous state but its neighbours, Sudan and South Sudan, as well.
Sudan has had a good run recently and is in a better position to weather any regional conflict. In a surprise movelast month, President Trump announced Sudan’s removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism List (SST)in exchange for normalising relations with Israel. The US is understood to have sweetened the deal with a raft of economic and political incentives, including humanitarian assistance and high-level trade delegations. It would also support Sudan in its discussions with international finance institutions on economic and debt relief.
Since the toppling of President Bashir in 2019, the new transitional government, led by Prime Minister Hamdok, has focused on reviving Sudan’s economy and managing its $60bn debt burden. Hamdok faces a severe economic crisis, aggravated by the Covid-19 pandemic, high inflation and the worst flooding in decades, that has affected more than 800,000 people and destroyed homes and large tracts of farmland just before the harvest. Food, bread and medicine are in short supply.
Thesanctions removal means that Sudan can now expect substantial assistance from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bankand unlock investment into its fledgling economy.
This is good news for Sudan. But where does it leave its neighbour, South Sudan?
The international community had high hopes for South Sudan when it announced independence in 2011. But its optimism was misplaced. It never understood the Sudanese conflict that began with British colonialism and erupted after the British left in 1956. It wasn’t just a war between the Government of Sudan and the southern Sudanese rebels. Nor was it a fight between the Islamic North and the Christian South. It was a fight over resources and power.
South Sudan continues to fight. After its first post-independence civil war in 2013 and its endless cycle of violence and retribution, South Sudan is now as unstable as it was before it seceded from Sudan. To accommodate the different factions and keep old military men in power, the South Sudanese government and bureaucracy is peopled with those loyal to the former rebels.
Few have the skills needed to manage the country properly. They have squandered their oil opportunity, through mismanagement and corruption. With falling oil growth demand, oil is unlikely to remaina sustainable revenue source. This will challenge the South Sudanese economy which is 90% reliant on oil.
South Sudan is also facing multiple sanctions. In 2014, the international communityimposed travel bans and asset freezes, as well as an arms embargo. In 2018, the EU designated sanctions against individuals involved in serious human rights violations, alarmed by “the outbreak of a destructive conflict between the Government of South Sudan and opposition forces in December 2013.” Most recently, the US added First Vice President of South Sudan, Taban Deng Gai to its Global Magnitsky sanctions list for his involvement in the disappearance and deaths of human rights lawyer Samuel Dong Luak and SPLM-IO member Aggrey Idry.
If US foreign policy towards Sudan was driven by religious and ideological interests in the 1990s and 2000s, what we are now seeing is a shift to transactional diplomacy. There is no reason to think that President Biden would change course.
South Sudan is watching closely. It may be why it has instructed a US lobbying firm to allegedly lobby for their own sanctions removal. It is also why it welcomed a peace deal between Sudan and five rebel groups in September, paving the way for increased oil export cooperation with its neighbour.
But stability in the youngest African state is fragile. Even with a recently signed peace agreement between former foes, President Kiir and Vice-President Machar, violence is always lurking. South Sudan is plagued with the same environmental challenges of flooding and poor harvests. The fighting in Ethiopia will not help.
As South Sudan looks to the North, it will see a New Sudan, unshackled by the weight of its history and benefitting from international goodwill. Will this encourage South Sudan to look forward instead of back? Or will it unleash demons from the past?
Let’s hope that the international community pulls itself away from Trump’s horror show and starts paying attention to East Africa. It may be a long winter.
Portugal’s crisis management: “Economic patriotism” should not be tied to ideological beliefs
The economic policy of the Hungarian government has provoked fierce criticism in the last decade, as it deviated from the...
The pandemic is fuelling slavery and sexual exploitation, UN experts warn
The COVID-19 pandemic has played into the hands of slavers and traffickers and requires stronger government measures to prevent exploitation...
The Muslim world’s changing dynamics: Pakistan struggles to retain its footing
Increasing strains between Pakistan and its traditional Arab allies, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, is about more than...
A Dangerous Interregnum
Authors: Zlatko Hadžidedić and Adnan Idrizbegović* Less than two months are left for the transition of government in the United...
Top 3 Effective Strategies for Using Push Notifications
A lot of businesses are actively using push marketing to raise their sales, attract more customers, and build a strong...
“Living On Mountains”: Antecedents of a Dignified and Secure World Order
“One must become accustomed to living on mountains, to seeing the wretched ephemeral chatter of politics and national egotism beneath...
Assassination of top Iranian Nuclear Scientist: A big Tragedy
On the sad incident of the assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist, the UN spokesman said, “We urge restraint...
Diplomacy1 day ago
Health & Wellness3 days ago
Global HIV toll likely to be far higher owing to COVID-19
Europe2 days ago
Great Powers Competition in Moldova
Africa Today3 days ago
Quality and standards: Game-changers for the post-COVID recovery of African economies?
Americas2 days ago
The Battle for the Essence of the Democratic Party
Europe2 days ago
Building Europe’s Future
Russia3 days ago
Russia, Indeed, Returns to Africa – says Senator Igor Morozov
Development3 days ago
COVID-19 crisis accentuating the need to bridge digital divides