While Trump assumes the US’s intervention in Middle East for decades under his predecessors, unnecessary and unproductive, John Bolton—National Security Adviser—right now appears as the most dangerous man, because of arguing to hit Iran.
The current escalated tensions between Washington and Tehran, is more about the way US would approach the Middle East than the Pentagon’s decision to go for a full-fledged war for an unknown time-frame.
The US has already been in the state of futile war for too long. US-led-conflicts in Asia were just the manifestations of blunders in its foreign policy. US, after being fought a supposedly global war on terror, cannot reach up to a conclusion over its winning or losing. It is because, for US, war doctrine was optimistic about natural resource exploitation opportunities while Taliban, Al Qeada, Hezbollah et alia have ideological deep roots.
Tensions arising from the US-Russia rivalry, Russian hegemony, the US-China trade war, China’s rise as a global power, and globalization are undermining Washington’s economic and geopolitical influence in a rapidly changing world.
In the worst-case scenario, if war is to opt, then more than US, the Saudi-Arabia and Israel would be the war’s beneficiary. US-Israel’s quid pro quo, against Iran, is while economical for the former while ideological for the later. The similar is in the case of US-Saudi-Arabia.
US-Iran tension is also on the radar of China and Russia. US has already been in a trade war with China, while it may emerge to a “new cold war”, which may align the world into financial bipolar form. Here’s where a new equilibrium may be set up.
What if, the cold war, could convert to a war. Outrightly, one US and the two wars are there at the horizon—one against Russia and China, and other against Iran. However, this is not likely that either Russia or China may intervene, in the case US-Iran war. Contrarily, if there is US-China or US-Russia War, Iran would intervene and would strongly.
Engaging both China and Russia into a single combine war or separate two, is not into the control of Pentagon. However, either China or Russia, can made a coalition against US is in the control of either.
At this point US war’s doctrine might be best for Pentagon, Israel and Saudi-Arabia but worst for Trump’s regime and Middle East. If Trump wants a second term into America, then he must abolish such war doctrine.
