On June 1, the US Defense Department published a report on military objectives in the Indo-Pacific Region (IPR). The report, delivered by acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan, contained a number of key points which he also outlined at the 18th International Conference on Regional Security “Shangri-La Dialogue” in Singapore. According to observers, the Pentagon report has become the first official military strategy of the kind for the region. What are the guidelines of the US military strategy in the context of Washington’s general policy in one of the most strategically important regions of the world?
In its National Security Strategy (NSS) and National Military Strategy (NMS), the Pentagon presents a wide-rangiong view on the present and future of the Indo-Pacific Region, which, most likely, coincides with that of the US administration. According to the report, since Indo-Pacific is of crucial importance “for America’s future”, it is therefore one of the top priorities for the Pentagon. One half of the world’s population live in the region, while its GDP makes up 60 percent of the global one. Countries of the region boast 7 of the world’s 10 largest armies. 6 states possess nuclear weapons. 9 of the top 10 seaports are in the region; and the region accounts for 60 percent of all maritime international trade. A third of all shipments run through the South China Sea.
The report says the United States has been maintaining presence in the region as a “peaceful” and “constructive” force since the 18th century, and is thus a “Pacific nation”. US trade with countries of the region has amounted to $ 2.3 trillion, and direct US investment in countries of the region $ 1.3 trillion is more than the cumulative figures of China, Japan, and South Korea. A quarter of all US exports go to Indo-Pacific Region, while shipments to China and India have more than doubled in the last ten years. Thus, the past, present and future of the United States is inextricably linked with Indo-Pacific.
What presents the main challenge to the security of the region and the US interests is competition of states, which is based on geopolitical rivalry. First of all, we are talking about China. The report unequivocally identifies the anti-Chinese vector of US military policy in the Indian-Pacific Region. China, according to US military, under the leadership of the CPC, “is seeking to shift the balance of strength in the region in its favor,” relying on the modernization of its armed forces, “a number of influence-boosting operations, and economic methods used to coerce other states.”
The Pentagon report is set to prove that the US policies are “completely different.” In 2017, President Trump proclaimed that the United States deems the region “free and open”, “reliable, safe, prosperous and open to the benefit of all countries.” Through the Pentagon, Washington expresses its intention to encourage governments that “act in an appropriate way” and countries whose citizens “enjoy fundamental rights and freedoms.” It thus vows to maintain “order based on the rule of law”, which is “a prerequisite for peace and prosperity for all.” According to Pentagon experts, “the United States proposes strategic partnership, not strategic dependence.”
However, differences and understatements do stand out. The United States is against the “prevalence of any one power in Indo-Pacific.” To this end, the Pentagon de facto plans to pursue a policy of maintaining military supremacy of the United States. In words, America is against “strategic dependence”. But the allies are required to purchase American weapons and hardware, in accordance with the price list to be presented by the Pentagon. In the long run, they are expected to “give a support shoulder” for America to keep its dominant position in the region. Finally, in response to China’s thoroughly developed One Belt One Road Initiative, which provides a development program for decades to come, Washington, through the Pentagon, puts forward but an abstract formula of “new strategic corridors” and “new roads”. The American idea hinges on the streamlining of traditional military ties with old allies and two or three dozen billion dollars which are supposed to stimulate “productive cooperation” with new partners.
Such a discrepancy in purposes and means of achieving them does not prevent American military strategists from portraying China as one of the three main “threats” to regional stability and security. China is seen as a “revisionist power,” which intentionally “enters into confrontation,” as, allegedly, “its political, economic and military agendas are expansionist by nature.” Beijing’s ultimate goal, in the opinion of the Pentagon, is “to secure hegemony in Indo-Pacific in the near future.” And in the long term, it is set on “ensuring global supremacy”. While the United States, according to the Pentagon, in the long term seeks to establish “transparent and non-aggressive” relations with the PRC. But…. only if Beijing complies with American conditions. Why not the other way round ?!
China has indeed become one of the pillars of the current model of globalization and represents the opposite of America under Trump. Unlike Washington, Beijing strongly supports further liberalization of trade, both in the Indo-Pacific Region, and in the rest of the world, and it favors multilateral creative cooperation between countries of the region. According to Beijing, a good strategy for mutually beneficial development should embrace several elements. First of all, countries should join efforts in the process of building an open economic system based on the principles of mutual benefit and “gains for all”. Also, it is necessary to promote a growth model based on innovation, and “tap into new sources of development”. Such an approach is relies on joint development, integration and interpenetration of cultures and technologies. Finally, economic development must be inclusive and its results and fruits must be accessible to all countries and territories.
Moscow is promoting a similar regional and global development agenda. In the Indian-Pacific Region, Russia is pursuing a course for “ensuring sustainable, comprehensive growth” for all countries and peoples. Objectives of such a scale and duration can be achieved only through effective integration of economic processes, by means of open and mutually beneficial cooperation. In this regard, Moscow supports efforts towards the creation of a free trade zone in Indo-Pacific. However, the Pentagon looks at the policy of the Russian Federation from an entirely different angle. In the report Russia is described as “a reborn malign actor” which seeks to regain and expand its influence in Indo-Pacific “in every direction”. Speaking through the military, Washington categorically refuses to admit that other countries’ policies may be more attractive than those of America, or that Moscow’s consistent efforts aimed at bridging the gap between China and the United States are aimed solely at stabilizing the international order. On the contrary, the Pentagon is extremely worried about the development of comprehensive partnerships between Russia and China in the diplomatic, economic and military spheres. For Washington, Moscow and Beijing’s efforts to build an equal and fair international system are “subversive”. It is also noteworthy that in the report, which is formally dedicated to the Indo-Pacific Region, the Pentagon is suspicious about the activities of Russia and China in the Arctic.
The third major headache of the Pentagon in the Indo-Pacific Region is the “rogue state) of North Korea. According to the military, the US position remains intact – until its complete nuclear disarmament the DPRK will remain a military threat to the United States. There have been no constructive suggestions. Instead, the US is considering the possibility of using force. The Pentagon does not foresee changes in the policy on North Korea confirming that Washington’s course remains tough and is “ultimatumlike”.
The subtitle of the report is “Readiness, Partnership and Strengthening Regional Cooperation”.
“Readiness” means maintaining peace through using force and deterrent, which require a multi-task group of armed forces capable of “securing victory in any conflict” over the shortest time possible.
“Partnership” in Indo-Pacific is declared by the Pentagon as one of the top policy priorities. But it is still unclear whether this is a course that echoes that of the Trump administration in Europe, where Washington is de facto trying to split the EU. A split comes to mind as one reads a statement about the Pentagon’s interest in forming coalitions of two, three, or four countries. Or this course could involve a secret front, since it mentions the traditional for Trump’s critics statement about allies as America’s “unparalleled advantage” over rivals and competitors.
Thus, the third goal declared is “Strengthening Regional Cooperation”, this time through the transformation of existing US military ties in accordance with the currently fashionable concept of “network security architecture.” As an incentive to attract potential allies to this “network”, they propose expansion of cyber operations and military activities in outer space.
However, upon further reading of the report, it turns out that, in the Pentagon’s understanding, “cooperation” implies, in the first place, the policy of promoting “monetization” of the alliance, which was formalized by Trump’s NSC in December 2017. Allies and partners are required to “make a contribution”, primarily by increasing the budget for the purchase of American weapons. The issue of the supply of weapons and equipment, in implementation of the provisions of the National Security Council, as well as the National Military Strategy, is becoming one of the Pentagon’s top priorities. And this is despite the fact that over the past three years, sales of American weapons and equipment to countries in the region have already increased by more than 65 percent.
Overall, the report, like any other publications of this kind, persistently presents the strategically optimistic prospect of “upcoming future achievements” in the region under the leadership of the United States. But will the Pentagon- proposed scenario yield the desired “security and prosperity” to countries of Indo-Pacific? The Indo-Pacific Strategy, announced by Trump, crosses out a whole range of steps which were taken by Obama. And the results of the policy of the current administration can easily be reduced to zero by the successors.
The Pentagon is trying to convince the world community of the US readiness to fight a long and fierce battle for dominance in the Indo-Pacific Region and in Asia as a whole. However, the conclusions of the five dozen pages of the report would fit on just one, the main message being the same – America first. But since not everyone agrees with this, the United States will likely have to adjust its strategy in the region to reality.
From our partner International Affairs
The world arms sales market
New data from SIPRI’s Arms Industry Database, released last December, show that arms sales by the world’s twenty-five largest defence equipment and military services companies totalled 361 billion dollars in 2019. This is an 8.5% increase in real terms in arms sales compared to 2018. All this emerged from the studies by the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute founded in 1966.
In 2019 the top five arms companies were all based in the United States: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and General Dynamics. These five companies together recorded 166 billion dollars in annual sales. In total, twelve U.S. companies rank among the top 25 for 2019, accounting for 61% of total sales.
For the first time, a Middle East company appears in the top twenty-five. Edge, based in the United Arab Emirates, was established in 2019 from the merger of over twenty-five smaller companies. It ranks twenty-second and accounts for 1.3% of the total arms sales of the top twenty-five companies. This demonstrates that oil revenues in the Near and Middle East are also invested in businesses that produce jobs and money, and are not just accumulated for the personal expenses of the ruling elite. Edge is an example of how high domestic demand for military products and services, combined with the desire to become less dependent on foreign suppliers, is driving the growth of arms companies in the Near and Middle East.
Another newcomer to the top twenty-five list in 2019 was L3Harris Technologies (ranking tenth). It was created by the merger of two U.S. companies that were both in the top twenty-five in 2018, namely Harris Corporation and L3 Technologies.
The top twenty-five list also includes four Chinese companies. Three of them are in the top ten: Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC, ranking sixth), China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC, ranking eighth) and China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco, ranking ninth).
The combined revenue of the four Chinese companies in the top 25 list, which also includes China South Industries Group Corporation (CSGC, ranking twenty-fourth), grew by 4.8% between 2018 and 2019. Chinese arms companies are benefiting from the People’s Liberation Army’s military modernisation programmes.
Conversely, the revenues of the two Russian companies in the top twenty-five, namely Almaz-Antey and United Shipbuilding, declined between 2018 and 2019, for a combined total amount of 634 million dollars. A third Russian company, United Aircraft, lost 1.3 billion dollars in sales and dropped off the top 25 list in 2019. Domestic competition and reduced government spending on modernising the Russian Navy were two of the main challenges for United Shipbuilding in 2019.
After the United States, the People’s Republic of China recorded the second largest share of 2019 arms sales by the top twenty-five companies, accounting for 16%.
The six Western European companies together account for 18%. The two Russian companies in the ranking account for 3.9%. Nineteen of the top twenty-five arms companies increased arms sales in 2019 compared to 2018. The largest absolute increase in arms sales revenue was recorded by Lockheed Martin: 5.1 billion dollars (11% in real terms). The largest percentage increase in annual arms sales (105%) was reported by French manufacturer Dassault Aviation Group. A strong increase in export deliveries of Rafale fighter aircraft pushed Dassault Aviation into the top 25 arms companies for the first time.
The Sipri report also examines the international presence of the 15 largest arms companies in 2019. These companies are present in a total of 49 countries, through majority-owned subsidiaries, joint ventures and research facilities. With a global presence in 24 countries each, Thales and Airbus are the two most internationalised companies, followed closely by Boeing (21 countries), Leonardo (21 countries) and Lockheed Martin (19 countries).
The United Kingdom, Australia, the United States, Canada and Germany host the largest number of these companies.
Outside the North American and Western European arms industries, the largest number of foreign corporate entities is hosted by Australia (38), Saudi Arabia (24), India (13), Singapore (11), United Arab Emirates (11) and Brazil (10).
There are many reasons why arms companies might want to establish themselves abroad, including better access to growing markets, collaborative arms programmes or policies in host countries that link arms purchases to technology transfers.
Of the 49 countries hosting foreign industries in the top 15 arms companies, seventeen countries are low- and middle-income ones. Southern countries seeking to restart their arms production programmes have welcomed foreign arms companies as a means for benefiting from technology transfers.
Chinese and Russian arms companies in the top 15 list have only a limited international presence. Sanctions against Russian companies and government limits on takeovers by Chinese companies seem to have played a role in limiting their global presence.
All these data were collected by the Sipri Arms Industry Database founded in 1989. At that time, it excluded data for companies in Eastern European socialist countries, including the Soviet Union. The updated version contains 2015 data, including data for companies in the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation. An archive of the first one hundred data sets for the period 2002-2018 is available on the Sipri website (www.sipri.org), while for the first twenty-five ones it has been updated with the latest available information.
Arms sales are defined as sales of military goods and services to military customers at national and international levels. Unless otherwise stated, all changes are expressed in real terms. Comparisons (e.g. between 2018 and 2019 or between 2015 and 2019) are based on the groups of companies listed in the respective year (i.e. the comparison is between different groups of companies).
For 2020-2021, Sipri is releasing its dataset on arms sales of the world’s largest companies along with the results of a mapping on the internationalisation of this industry. For this reason, a new dataset was created, including 400 subsidiaries, joint ventures and research facilities linked to the top fifteen arms companies in 2019. Data sources included corporate investment documents, information on company websites, public records and newspaper and magazine articles.
To be included in the mapping, an arms industry must have been active for the majority of its fiscal year, as well as be located in a country other than that in which its parent company is headquartered and also (i) produce military goods or provide military services to military customers; (ii) produce or provide services for dual-use goods to military customers.
This is the first of the key data handovers in view of the publication of the next Sipri Yearbook in mid-2021. Before that, Sipri will release its data on international arms transfers (details of all major international arms transfers in 2020), as well as its data on global military expenditure (comprehensive information on global, regional and national trends in military expenditure). We will inform readers of all this in due course.
Aman-2021 Naval Exercise: Maritime Diplomacy
Pakistan has hosted Aman-2021 biannual multi-national naval exercise(Feb.11-16) that has been the focal-point for Indian media particularly due to the significance of this naval drill . The prime disposition of this naval exercise was that, it was conducted in peace times, therefore no country can misperceive the exercise.
Secondly, the objectives of the Aman-2021 are quite clear that;
- The exercise aims to contribute to regional stability
- The exercise is a united resolve against the threats of terrorism, piracy and other related threats to maritime domain
- This exercise is likely to enhance interoperability between the regional as well as extra-regional navies. It also will bridge the gap between regional and extra-regional naval forces to unite against a common threat
Pakistan navy has been remarkable in bringing 45 countries’ naval forces together .Some of the notables are the U.S., Russia, China and Turkey.
All major nations want their influence in the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) due to its strategic chokepoints and the Sea-Lines of Communications(SLOCS) that are vital maritime routes between ports, used for trade ,logistics and naval forces. Indian Ocean is one of the vital global trade arteries accounting for more than 80% of world’s oil shipments passing through this region. This region has world’s fastest growing economies and a home to 2.7 billion population. This region is lucrative market for multinational corporations but rise of Asian economies has got competition with European economies. The IOR is supra-rich in natural resources that is why during colonial times, colonial powers preferred to colonize countries in this region. This region’s natural resources are equivalent to combined with rest of the world. In short, this region is the most significant due to its political, economic, strategic and geological features. That is the primary reason, great powers wish to maintain their influence in the region.
Aman-21 exercise has provided participating countries with an opportunity to demonstrate naval strength. Russia, U.S., and China are largest navies in the world and they are collaborating under on a single platform(Aman-21).Russia’s participation with NATO members makes this naval exercise very special because the former has not done so since the 2011 ‘Bold Monarch’ naval exercise -off the coast of Spain.
All the participating navies are gathering under the slogan “togetherness for peace” and despite having differences between them, some of the countries are uniting to thwart threats to maritime security and stability. Some of the scholars are terming Pakistan navy’s maritime diplomacy as a huge success. As the number of participating countries grew immensely due to the message of peace that Pakistan navy is promoting. Though, the primary objective of the exercise is to counter threats of hybrid warfare, piracy, drug trafficking, arms trafficking, human smuggling, terrorism and climate change.
At the sidelines of the Aman-21, Pakistan navy organized 9th international Maritime Conference (IMC)2021 in Karachi. Advisor to Prime Minister on National Security, Dr.Moeed Yusuf stated “Pakistan’s blue economy has the potential of billions of dollars but it is earning around $200 million from ocean resources.
Pakistan navy aims to contribute more in regional peace and stability by transforming itself into a blue water force equipped with state of the art technology (surface, airborne, submerged, unmanned) to play a greater role in the IOR. Pakistan’s strategically located Gwadar port is in close proximity of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital area for world’s developed nations due to oil transit chokepoint and it connects Middle East with South and Central Asia.
India always sees Pakistan’s efforts for promoting regional peace with a greater doubt. India’s relations with Pakistan plummeted after Modi government revoked Article 370 and 35-A, altering Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomous status. Indian media did a lot of propaganda regarding Pakistan’s successful naval exercise. Even one of the Indian magazine The Week captioned “ Pakistan’s navy chief visits Russian warship. worry? “It also claimed that Pakistan’s navy chief Admiral Mohammad Amjad Khan Niazi visited the Admiral Grigorovich. The Admiral Grigorovish is a frigate that has the capability to carry missiles, torpedoes, anti-submarine, anti-air and anti-ship guns. Pakistan’s naval chief was given the tour of weapon system and communication equipment on board the ship. This naval exercise has been an opportunity for navies to demonstrate their professionalism and showcase their weaponry.
As the Aman-21 was concluded Iran and Russia started a two-day naval drill in the northern part of Indian Ocean. India also joined the naval exercise without any proper invitation and due to diminutive participation of Indian navy, it could not make that strategic impact that was thought by India. Now some of the Indian media outlets deny India’s participation in the Iran-Russia naval exercise. India’s efforts to neutralize the strategic impact of Aman-21,evaporated and Aman-21 naval exercised concluded with achieving desired objective of bringing 45 naval forces together under the slogan of “togetherness for peace”. Pakistan’s efforts for promoting regional peace and stability will bear more fruits after the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s completion and regional connectivity for collective good.
Indo-French Bonhomie is Destabilizing South Asia
India is rapidly increasing its weapons capability in order to threaten and coerce Pakistan so that latter could submit to India’s hegemonic designs. Such hegemonic aspirations not only threaten South Asia’s regional equilibrium but also take entire region to the brink of nuclear brinkmanship. Some of the Western countries are eager to sell their weaponry to India and in particular, France has taken the weapons sale to an entire new level by selling nuclear-capable fighter jets to India. This is unprecedented from a Western country which is also signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (NPT). Selling of such weapons to Modi regime is worrisome not just for South Asia but entire global peace and security.
One of the major contributors to Indian arms buildup is France, which has provided technologically advanced conventional and strategic weaponry to India. India largely depends on foreign assistance to acquire weapons and over the period of a decade, Indo-French defense cooperation has strengthened. It is because both countries have convergence of interests when it comes to strategic policy in the Indo-Pacific region. However, this convergence is destabilizing the South Asian region, and contributing to security challenges for Pakistan.
Indo-French strategic partnership mainly spans in the fields of defense, nuclear and space. In the first week of January 2021, India and France held their annual strategic dialogue, led by Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and Diplomatic Advisor to French President Emmanuel Bonne. It is interesting to see that France is not only following Indian footprints in the Indo-Pacific region but it’s also been vocal about India’s entry into Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a global body which controls global nuclear commerce. France is also at forefront regarding India’s seat at high tables of UN Security Council.
This is ironic and disappointing in the sense as to how a member of civilized world community like France neglects Indian atrocities in the Indian illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIJO&K). Indian atrocities in occupied Kashmir are no more a secret. Entire world community condemned PM Modi’s illegal annexation of disputed territory. France reaction was awful to the core. Instead of mediatory role, France called Kashmir as India- Pakistan bilateral issue. France put a blind eye on number of UN Resolutions which clearly state Kashmir as a disputed territory. India has violated those resolutions, but irony lies in the fact that France wants India to be part of very prestigious body whose resolutions means nothing for it.
India’s relationship with France is not confined to one domain of defense; rather it includes energy cooperation, cyber security, space exploration and other areas of strategic convergence. Their strategic partnership also focuses on bilateral cooperation in combating terrorism. It is ironic to note their selective choosing of terrorism. France remains oblivious to India’s state sponsored terrorism in Pakistan and persecution of Kashmiri Muslims. France’s silence on such matters not only put a question mark on its global standing but also shows how countries like France lose moral grounds just for the sake of some economic incentives. This moral bankruptcy is unimaginable and condemnable.
South Asia is a fragile region. Massive arms import and weaponization of India has direct ramification for Pakistan’s security calculous. In order to match increasing conventional superiority with India, Pakistan may be compelled to participate in arms race fueled by countries like France. France’s defense industry and its strategic collaboration with Indian defense firms also pose a serious threat of technological reverse engineering. At the same time, there is no clear indication of end user agreement on French weapons in India. Whether there would be any end-user agreement is yet another question.
There’s no second thought that, France is actively fueling India – Pakistan arms race. India has been buying arms and ammunitions for decades and remains the world’s topmost importers for last many years. Indian imports of weapons from France have risen by 75%, making latter the third largest supplier of arms to India in last 5 years. France is exporting weapon systems to India, which are not only conventional but also have strategic implications. The application of such weapon systems also varies from air to land to sea. This clearly signifies that France is destabilizing the region.
The Indo-French Strategic Partnership is being deepened at the expense of regional balance of of power in South Asia. The already fragile strategic stability in South Asia is under assault from France’s massive arms transfer to a revisionist India. French sale of sophisticated military technology to India, at this scale, is further deteriorating the regional stability and eroding global norms and rules. There must be an end to this frenzy which is being run in the name of “strategic partnership”. France needs to realize the severity of the situation created by its weapons sale to an aggressor before it gets too late.
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