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Western Sahara Chess Game: UN Kohler’s lose Who’s the next

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In recent scenario to its routine duty of controlling the political balance in the Western Sahara dispute and its persistent look for a answer that pleased all the parties involved, the Trump administration will enter on new responsibilities imposed by the resignation of UN envoy Horst Kohler, particularly the seek for a successor to the former German president who emerged from the “Through which he imposed his “maneuver” on the parties ” to the case of Western Sahara .

During unexpected surprise of his resignation to all involved parties, the Special Envoy to the Western Sahara dispute was under serious pressure to come up with an urgent solution to the well-known issue for more than 40 years, especially by the United States, which plays a significant role in diplomatically and political decision-making process within the Security Council. So far “Kohler has been hit by the curse of the Western Sahara case and has not successfully ended his mission as expected by the Security Council,” many Western Sahara experts in the field of international relations and North African studies pointed out: Western Sahara File and withdraw from it to its position and complexity image was a significant turning point in the history of the UN failure in dealing with Western Sahara dispute as one of international security issues .

This is quite superficial with regards to Kohler special UN envoy that he did not learn international relations academically, but his diplomatic outstanding proficiency and skill has made his task stand out from the methodology he followed to solve each party’s contract and call the conflictual parties to set a meeting in a negotiated atmosphere. The Western Sahara dispute represents the three countries: The Kingdom of Morocco, Algeria, and Mauritania, before Morocco and the Polisario, Which has been referred to by Morocco from the beginning, “highlighting the full Algerian involvement in the conflict, explained that “Kohler handled to put the Sahara dispute in the right direction, a negotiated political solution, but he was fenced by four contradictions were currently disrupting his work, through reducing the scope of maneuvering. ” Among these contradictions, the call for the full referendum to be organized by the Polisario Front (SADR) and the states backing segregation like Algeria and South Africa, which are opposed to the decisions of the Security Council and bring the process of resolutions back to nothing.

In the sense of these demands and requirements, Kohler’s endeavors appeared to be in a wicked circle. Instead of working on the last resolution, the Polisario Front (SADR) should be convinced to stand by the Security Council’s decisions and committed involvement in the settlement process, because the outcome of more than 28 years of diplomatic negotiations walked in the empty circle. which means that Western Sahara would return to the era of pre-December 1991.

Additionally, The other contradiction appeared in the Western Sahara case is the United States squeeze on the task of the UN bodies and waving the use of the arms embargo or sanctions against the bodies that do not give a profit on the abuse of the Western Sahara file, which is highlighted by the US administration to limit the duration of UN mission “MINURSO” to Sahara from one year to six months, and the rise of differences between the forces France, which does not accept with satisfaction the United States actions worked to make the UN duty determined in a year as a stable framework to discuss the sphere of the final solution.

The last contradiction, according to UN moves is the emergence of a strategy of shifting the status quo or pushing the Polisario Front (SADR) into the sphere of the Moroccan Sahara to carry out provocative and challenging acts that cannot be analyzed by political measures that can be led into the negotiations process. therefore, To the outbreak of war in the Sahara region would be made Algeria undermine Morocco’s foreign policy by using the Polisario Front (SADR) as an essential tool over Sahara dispute.

As noted, Kohler’s resignation sets him on the file of the shortest UN personal envoys in dealing with UN mission resolution overseas which not passing two years in a reason or speculation that his health condition ineligible to allow him carry on his work especially on Western Sahara case, and also there is no any details available  from the UN who can take the lead in continuing to find a final settlement to  Western Sahara file process .

Now, the big the questions raised here why did Kohler call his resignation? Is health really the reason? If so, why was this decision postponed until its day? Or did Kohler, the religious person who had the perceptions of the refugee experience and the proof of the pain of war, mobilized the real suffering before touching the position of head of state, preferred to resign from the Sahara file instead of declaring failure?

Yes, The heads of state cannot accept any failure except towards illness or other things. Kohler profiling personality is a person of complex persuasion. He endured from the lack of a clearer vision of the United Nations in the Western Sahara case, which remained in its hallways as other unsolved cases such as Yemen and Libya. and also suffered because of contradictory visions between the Moroccan political and Algerian military.

Algeria, for instance, was not a state until after independence, and when it gained independence, power was moved to the army, and the legal administrative became a way of military rule, while the political system in the Kingdom of Morocco was distant, set up on open monarchy. In the 1960s and 1970s, The Kingdom of Morocco built up a modern country with its institutions and political administrations, from the monarchy to the constitution of 1962 and the 1970 constitution, to the establishment of political units and the building of constitutional institutions, political, civil, cultural, and military, which may be determined but basically state institutions  before the conflict.

Due to this, It clears that Kohler became aware of these complexities, but he acknowledged better that Mauritania and the Polisario Front (SADR) acted a limited role in this uneven dialogue and negotiation process, so he had to move the negotiations wheel out of the multilateral sphere of “The Kingdom of Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and the Polisario Front (SADR)” to the direct bilateral sphere “The Kingdom of Morocco and Algeria” On the speech of dialogue and interaction among citizens in The Kingdom of Morocco and the military in Algeria.

To a certain extent, The Algerian government and politicians are truly creative and innovative in making the so-called “Polisario Front (SADR)” in dealing with the Western Sahara issue as a military mindset to sever and quest its geopolitical interests especially finding a way to reach the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan Western Sahara. Accordingly, Mauritania has been floating in a position to be the mediator between Algeria and Morocco to end the conflict.

Over the past decade or so, the Kingdom of Morocco has continued to deal with Western Sahara case as National concern, the issue of Western Sahara for Morocco and Moroccans is the source of their identity and loyalty to the Moroccan sovereignty and also deals with it as key issue in promoting economic, stability, security and institutional development to the North African region as well Arab Maghreb region.

Algeria so far finds Western Sahara case a fruitful area to launch its hegemony and rivalry in order to weaken Morocco’s position and sized its geopolitical strength and undermine Morocco’s foreign policies with its African partners diplomatically and politically.

To sum up, you come upon that all the UN international mediators or special Envoys have misused a lot of time just to understand the Western Sahara conflict, and when they discover that it is a spurious conflict, they simply resign. Therefore, no matter how long the Western Sahara case is consumed, and the former UN mediators and others are not right, it will remain a fictional case. In contrary the Kingdom of Morocco is on the right path, has its historical and geographical facts, unlike those who believe in spurious facts of political plans but with a military mentality.

Dr. Jamal Ait Laadam, Specialist in North African and Western Sahara Issue, at Jilin University School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).

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Africa

African Union’s Inaction on Ethiopia Deplorable – Open Letter

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The crisis in northern Ethiopia has resulted in millions of people in need of emergency assistance and protection. © UNICEF/Christine Nesbitt

A group of African intellectuals says in an open letter that it is appalled and dismayed by the steadily deteriorating situation in Ethiopia. The letter, signed by 58 people, says the African Union’s lack of effective engagement in the crisis is deplorable. The letter calls on regional bloc IGAD and the AU to “proactively take up their mandates with respect to providing mediation for the protagonists to this conflict”.

The letter also asks for “all possible political support” for the AU’s Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa, Olusegun Obasanjo, whose appointment was announced on August 26, 2021. A United Nations Security Council meeting on the same day welcomed the former Nigerian president’s appointment.

Earlier in August 2021, UN  chief Antonio Guterres appealed for a ceasefire, unrestricted aid access and an Ethiopian-led political dialogue. He told the council these steps were essential to preserve Ethiopia’s unity and the stability of the region and to ease the humanitarian crisis. He said that he had been in close contact with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and had received a letter from the leader of the Tigray region in response to his appeal. “The UN is ready to work together with the African Union and other key partners to support such a dialogue,” he said.

August 26, 2021 was only the second time during the conflict that the council held a public meeting to discuss the situation. Britain, Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway and the United States requested the session.

Fighting between the national government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front broke out in November 2020, leaving millions facing emergency or crisis levels of food insecurity, according to the United Nations. Both sides have been accused of atrocities.

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Africa: The G20 Must Recommit to Covax

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It is one year since the international community gave its backing to the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) facility to lead a worldwide effort to end the acute phase of the pandemic. The initiative aimed to ensure that every country, and not just those with sufficient money or resources, could access life-saving vaccines once they became available. As G20 health ministers prepare to meet in Rome on September 5-6, they are in a position to ensure that COVAX fulfills its mission.

A year ago, no one knew when or even if it might be possible to develop a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19, let alone the 20 that are available today. But since making its first international deliveries in February, COVAX a partnership established by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance has delivered more than 235 million vaccine doses to 139 countries, and expects to deliver another billion doses in the fourth quarter. Only China, India, and the United States have delivered more. This start to the largest and most complex vaccine rollout in history has given hope to millions of people and laid solid foundations for how we respond to future pandemics.

Yet, so much more could, and should, have been achieved by now. It is unacceptable that only 1.8% of people in low-income countries have received their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, compared to 82% in high- and upper-middle-income countries. This shocking inequality is as economically senseless as it is destructive to human life, with the latest estimate of the cost of the slow rollout amounting to $2.3 trillion.

The world was woefully unprepared for a pandemic, and this is reflected in the challenges COVAX has faced. By the time initial funding arrived, wealthy countries had already locked up early vaccine supplies. Export bans affecting key suppliers, and difficulties experienced by many manufacturers in scaling up production to the required level, also undermined COVAX’s ability to access doses early.

Given increasing global vaccine inequity and the rise of new, more contagious coronavirus variants, we must put these challenges behind us. Thanks to the support of almost all G20 governments, alongside that of foundations and private businesses, COVAX has now raised nearly $10 billion and secured more than 600 million donated doses. All the preparations are in place for the most comprehensive vaccination effort that the world has seen.

Based on the committed orders COVAX has placed with vaccine manufacturers and the additional donations, hundreds of millions of new doses should now be available each month. We need to make sure they reach poorer countries and get into people’s arms. To avoid further delays, and for the facility to succeed, we need support from G20 leaders in four key areas.

First, we need doses, and we need them now. The premise of COVAX was always that the facility should be able to negotiate and buy its own doses. With our early vaccine access compromised, donations have played a vital role in maintaining our ability to keep doses flowing to those most in need. Of the 600 million doses pledged to COVAX to date, 100 million have now been delivered. We need more, and soon, with longer shelf lives and greater certainty so that recipient countries have time to plan their rollout. This can be achieved without jeopardizing high-income countries’ national vaccination efforts.

We also need G20 leaders to support our call for transparency. COVAX has legally binding agreements with manufacturers for more than four billion doses, but has all too often faced delays in accessing them. Without greater clarity regarding firms’ order books, it is impossible to know whether these holdups are due to production challenges or preferential treatment for bilateral arrangements. Insisting that manufacturers are transparent about their order timelines can ensure a level playing field where no one particularly those living in developing countries gets bumped to the back of the vaccine queue because of another bilateral deal.

In addition to ensuring that manufacturers keep their commitment to COVAX, governments should make global vaccine access their highest priority. Countries with pending orders for doses that they currently do not need should allow COVAX to take their place in the queue so that we can get doses to needy countries now.

Finally, lower-income countries require continued financial and technical support for their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. Strengthening national health systems will help these countries to ensure delivery of doses and mitigate the pandemic’s secondary effects, and will leave in place infrastructure critical to future global health security.

By recommitting to COVAX, G20 leaders will recommit to a multilateral solution that builds on the astounding scientific progress of the past year. Based on COVAX’s latest forthcoming supply forecast, when topped up with doses through bilateral deals, equitable COVID-19 vaccine access can protect up to 60% of the adult population in 91 lower-income countries. This would represent a huge step toward the WHO target of 70%, which is needed to suppress the coronavirus everywhere, and COVAX represents the best opportunity to achieve it.

Failure would mean more lives lost, broken health-care systems, even deadlier and more transmissible variants, and a pandemic with no end in sight. The G20 must not allow that to be an option.

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More African Countries Register Russia’s Sputnik Vaccine

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Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) is a specialized technical institution of the African Union (AU) that strengthens the capacity and capability of Africa’s public health institutions as well as partnerships to detect and respond quickly and effectively to disease threats and outbreaks, based on data-driven interventions and programmes.

During the outbreak of the coronavirus, the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT), was established by African Union, as a component in support of the Africa Vaccine Strategy and was endorsed by the AU Bureau of Heads of State and Government on 20th of August 2020.

Dr John Nkengasong, Director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), has emphasized: “Africa has to team up with development partners to achieve its 60% continent-wide vaccination in the next two years. I think that is why we should as a collective of the continent, and of course, in partnership with the developed world make sure that Africa has a timely access to vaccines to meet our vaccination targets.”

An official media release in February 2021, the Africa Vaccine Acquisition Task Team from the African Union (AU) informed that Russia would supply and deliver 300 million Sputnik V vaccines to Africa. That step was intended to support African countries to attain their targeted immunization of 60% of the population by the year-end. That vaccine story disappeared, but instead what become so common is the speedy registration of Sputnik V on bilateral basis in various African countries.

According to the latest, Nigeria has become the 68th country in the world to approve the Russian vaccine. The use of the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine has been approved in Nigeria, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) said in an official statement.

“The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF, Russia’s sovereign wealth fund) announces the approval of the Russian Sputnik V vaccine against coronavirus by the National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control of Nigeria (NAFDAC). Nigeria has become the 68th country in the world to approve the Russian vaccine. Total population of all countries, where Sputnik V is approved for use, now exceeds 3.7 billion people, which is nearly half of the global population,” the statement said.

“Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa, and the approval of Sputnik V will provide for using one of the safest and most effective vaccines in the world. Sputnik V is based on a proven human adenoviral vectors platform and is successfully used in over 50 countries. Approval in Nigeria will make an important contribution to the country’s fight against the pandemic,” CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev said.

Besides Nigeria, other African countries have registered Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. Reportedly, the vaccine has been registered in Algeria, Angola, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Morocco, Namibia, Tunisia, the Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zimbabwe.

Russia’s drive to share Sputnik V vaccine, of course, offers a chance to raise its image and strengthen alliances in Africa. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has made efforts promoting the vaccine using all its channels. But supply and delivery have largely lagged behind, the pledges have simply not been fulfilled. Russian authorities have oftentimes said that they would step up efforts for fruitful cooperation in combating coronavirus in Africa.

Promising more than can be delivered appears to be a universal problem with coronavirus vaccines, and it is a real risk for Russia as well, said Theresa Fallon, Director of the Brussels-based Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies. “They have won the gold medal for creating this very effective vaccine,” she said. “But the problem is how are they going to implement production and delivery?”

Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), with profit motivation, has attempted supplying the Russian vaccines through, Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum, from the Monarch family and a third party in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to a number of African countries. For instance, the Republic of Ghana reportedly signed US$64.6 million contract for Sputnik V vaccine from Russia through Sheikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum. It was double the price from the producer as reported in the media.

On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin has noted, in a speech early September, that advanced countries that produce vaccines against the coronavirus do little to protect humanity from the pandemic.

“The benefits of vaccination are enjoyed mostly by advanced economies. The bulk of the vaccines is made there, and it is used to protect their own population. But very little is being done to protect humanity in the broad sense,” Putin said at the plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, the Far East of Russia. “This is very bad for the producers, because all this boomerangs around the globe. For instance, in Africa the level of protection with vaccines is minimal, but contacts with the African countries continue. There is no getting away from this. This infection will return again and again.”

According to an official release obtained late February, the Sputnik V vaccine the following advantages:

• Efficacy of Sputnik V is 91.6% as confirmed by the data published in the Lancet, one of the world’s oldest and most respected medical journals; It is one of only three vaccines in the world with efficacy of over 90%; Sputnik V provides full protection against severe cases of COVID-19. 

• The Sputnik V vaccine is based on a proven and well-studied platform of human adenoviral vectors, which cause the common cold and have been around for thousands of years. 

• Sputnik V uses two different vectors for the two shots in a course of vaccination, providing immunity with a longer duration than vaccines using the same delivery mechanism for both shots. 

• The safety, efficacy and lack of negative long-term effects of adenoviral vaccines have been proven by more than 250 clinical studies over two decades. 

• The developers of the Sputnik V vaccine are working collaboratively with AstraZeneca on a joint clinical trial to improve the efficacy of AstraZeneca vaccine. 

• There are no strong allergies caused by Sputnik V. 

• The price of Sputnik V is less than $10 per shot, making it affordable around the world. 

In February, peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet published an analysis from Phase III clinical trial of the Russian vaccine, showing its 91.6-percent efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19. The Sputnik V vaccine was developed by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology.

Sputnik V was registered in Russia on August 11, 2020 as the world’s first officially registered coronavirus vaccine. Russian vaccines have advantages as no deaths have been reported after vaccination with the Sputnik V, Alexander Gintsburg, Director of the Gamaleya Center, the vaccine developer, said and was reported by TASS News Agency. “As of today, no deaths after vaccination with Sputnik V have been registered,” he said.

Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) is Russia’s sovereign wealth fund established in 2011 to make equity co-investments, primarily in Russia, alongside reputable international financial and strategic investors. RDIF acts as a catalyst for direct investment in the Russian economy. RDIF’s management is based in Moscow.

In Africa, during first of September, the coronavirus-related death toll has topped 196,190, while more than 6.9 million recoveries have been reported. South Africa accounts for a majority of coronavirus cases and deaths across Africa – 2,777,659 and 82,261 respectively. The death toll in Tunisia climbed to 23,451, and 664,034 cases have been confirmed. Egypt recorded 16,736 deaths and 288,441 coronavirus cases.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia is ranked second to South Africa (308,134 cases and 4,675 deaths) and is followed by Kenya (235,863 cases and 4,726 deaths) and Nigeria (191,805 and 2,455). The total number of COVID-19 cases has reached almost 8 million in Africa, according to the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Regional Office for Africa.

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