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Western Sahara Chess Game: UN Kohler’s lose Who’s the next

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In recent scenario to its routine duty of controlling the political balance in the Western Sahara dispute and its persistent look for a answer that pleased all the parties involved, the Trump administration will enter on new responsibilities imposed by the resignation of UN envoy Horst Kohler, particularly the seek for a successor to the former German president who emerged from the “Through which he imposed his “maneuver” on the parties ” to the case of Western Sahara .

During unexpected surprise of his resignation to all involved parties, the Special Envoy to the Western Sahara dispute was under serious pressure to come up with an urgent solution to the well-known issue for more than 40 years, especially by the United States, which plays a significant role in diplomatically and political decision-making process within the Security Council. So far “Kohler has been hit by the curse of the Western Sahara case and has not successfully ended his mission as expected by the Security Council,” many Western Sahara experts in the field of international relations and North African studies pointed out: Western Sahara File and withdraw from it to its position and complexity image was a significant turning point in the history of the UN failure in dealing with Western Sahara dispute as one of international security issues .

This is quite superficial with regards to Kohler special UN envoy that he did not learn international relations academically, but his diplomatic outstanding proficiency and skill has made his task stand out from the methodology he followed to solve each party’s contract and call the conflictual parties to set a meeting in a negotiated atmosphere. The Western Sahara dispute represents the three countries: The Kingdom of Morocco, Algeria, and Mauritania, before Morocco and the Polisario, Which has been referred to by Morocco from the beginning, “highlighting the full Algerian involvement in the conflict, explained that “Kohler handled to put the Sahara dispute in the right direction, a negotiated political solution, but he was fenced by four contradictions were currently disrupting his work, through reducing the scope of maneuvering. ” Among these contradictions, the call for the full referendum to be organized by the Polisario Front (SADR) and the states backing segregation like Algeria and South Africa, which are opposed to the decisions of the Security Council and bring the process of resolutions back to nothing.

In the sense of these demands and requirements, Kohler’s endeavors appeared to be in a wicked circle. Instead of working on the last resolution, the Polisario Front (SADR) should be convinced to stand by the Security Council’s decisions and committed involvement in the settlement process, because the outcome of more than 28 years of diplomatic negotiations walked in the empty circle. which means that Western Sahara would return to the era of pre-December 1991.

Additionally, The other contradiction appeared in the Western Sahara case is the United States squeeze on the task of the UN bodies and waving the use of the arms embargo or sanctions against the bodies that do not give a profit on the abuse of the Western Sahara file, which is highlighted by the US administration to limit the duration of UN mission “MINURSO” to Sahara from one year to six months, and the rise of differences between the forces France, which does not accept with satisfaction the United States actions worked to make the UN duty determined in a year as a stable framework to discuss the sphere of the final solution.

The last contradiction, according to UN moves is the emergence of a strategy of shifting the status quo or pushing the Polisario Front (SADR) into the sphere of the Moroccan Sahara to carry out provocative and challenging acts that cannot be analyzed by political measures that can be led into the negotiations process. therefore, To the outbreak of war in the Sahara region would be made Algeria undermine Morocco’s foreign policy by using the Polisario Front (SADR) as an essential tool over Sahara dispute.

As noted, Kohler’s resignation sets him on the file of the shortest UN personal envoys in dealing with UN mission resolution overseas which not passing two years in a reason or speculation that his health condition ineligible to allow him carry on his work especially on Western Sahara case, and also there is no any details available  from the UN who can take the lead in continuing to find a final settlement to  Western Sahara file process .

Now, the big the questions raised here why did Kohler call his resignation? Is health really the reason? If so, why was this decision postponed until its day? Or did Kohler, the religious person who had the perceptions of the refugee experience and the proof of the pain of war, mobilized the real suffering before touching the position of head of state, preferred to resign from the Sahara file instead of declaring failure?

Yes, The heads of state cannot accept any failure except towards illness or other things. Kohler profiling personality is a person of complex persuasion. He endured from the lack of a clearer vision of the United Nations in the Western Sahara case, which remained in its hallways as other unsolved cases such as Yemen and Libya. and also suffered because of contradictory visions between the Moroccan political and Algerian military.

Algeria, for instance, was not a state until after independence, and when it gained independence, power was moved to the army, and the legal administrative became a way of military rule, while the political system in the Kingdom of Morocco was distant, set up on open monarchy. In the 1960s and 1970s, The Kingdom of Morocco built up a modern country with its institutions and political administrations, from the monarchy to the constitution of 1962 and the 1970 constitution, to the establishment of political units and the building of constitutional institutions, political, civil, cultural, and military, which may be determined but basically state institutions  before the conflict.

Due to this, It clears that Kohler became aware of these complexities, but he acknowledged better that Mauritania and the Polisario Front (SADR) acted a limited role in this uneven dialogue and negotiation process, so he had to move the negotiations wheel out of the multilateral sphere of “The Kingdom of Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and the Polisario Front (SADR)” to the direct bilateral sphere “The Kingdom of Morocco and Algeria” On the speech of dialogue and interaction among citizens in The Kingdom of Morocco and the military in Algeria.

To a certain extent, The Algerian government and politicians are truly creative and innovative in making the so-called “Polisario Front (SADR)” in dealing with the Western Sahara issue as a military mindset to sever and quest its geopolitical interests especially finding a way to reach the Atlantic Ocean via Moroccan Western Sahara. Accordingly, Mauritania has been floating in a position to be the mediator between Algeria and Morocco to end the conflict.

Over the past decade or so, the Kingdom of Morocco has continued to deal with Western Sahara case as National concern, the issue of Western Sahara for Morocco and Moroccans is the source of their identity and loyalty to the Moroccan sovereignty and also deals with it as key issue in promoting economic, stability, security and institutional development to the North African region as well Arab Maghreb region.

Algeria so far finds Western Sahara case a fruitful area to launch its hegemony and rivalry in order to weaken Morocco’s position and sized its geopolitical strength and undermine Morocco’s foreign policies with its African partners diplomatically and politically.

To sum up, you come upon that all the UN international mediators or special Envoys have misused a lot of time just to understand the Western Sahara conflict, and when they discover that it is a spurious conflict, they simply resign. Therefore, no matter how long the Western Sahara case is consumed, and the former UN mediators and others are not right, it will remain a fictional case. In contrary the Kingdom of Morocco is on the right path, has its historical and geographical facts, unlike those who believe in spurious facts of political plans but with a military mentality.

Jamal Ait Laadam, Specialist in and North African Studies and Western Sahara Issue, a Ph.D. fellow in Jilin University School of Public Affairs

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Africa

Somalia: An American Media Pundit, Exaggerates and Weaponizes International Aid

Ahmed Said

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Recently, after the Somali parliament removed prime minister, Hassan Ali Kheyre, in an overwhelmingly no-confidence vote, it didn’t only raise my eye borrows but it made me startled to read an opinion article on the matter in the Washington Examiner by Michael Rubin whose writings I usually find quite utopian and unbalanced. The piece titled, The State Department spent $1.5 billion on Somali democracy and built a dictatorship, was full of chunks of inconsistencies, bending the truth, and calumny attacks on the sovereignty of my home country, Somalia, in the disguise of having the right to express an opinion.

Before we delve into the essence of my observations of Mr. Rubin’s article, let me briefly explain why prime minister, Hassan Ali Kheyre, was ousted by the parliament. However, to safe the reader a boring monologue on why and how the prime minister was sacked, I have to go to the point with brevity; the prime minister lost his job after indirectly sabotaging a one-man, one-vote election legislation he was a part of creating it, so that the Somali citizens can directly elect their leaders, a right they lost decades ago, whose opposite is to go back to electing parliament through clan based picks by traditional elders, then the parliament elects the speaker and the president, then the president nominates a prime minister to be confirmed by the parliament, a process tainted with corruption and vote buying, coupled with dangerous foreign interests; the prime minister preferred that old process, but to say the least, the prime minister was a competent figure who did a great job for the public while he was in office, and in his resignation speech, although he did not like how the no-confidence vote was conducted, he left with dignity and a unifying message. 

The trick to hoodwink readers Mr. Rubin used in the title of his article was to combine all aid received by Somalia from all sources, even from the United Nations, as a single one of 1.5 billion given by the US State Department alone, which is not the case, and he claimed it as an example for being implicitly one-time payment. Then, he wrote:

“Consider first the sheer scale of the United States’s investment in Somalia: The U.S. has spent tens of billions of dollars on Somalia in recent decades.” But in the title of his article, he  tied together the 1.5 billion and what he called building a dictatorship in Somalia in which the reader cannot escape the inference that the US built in Somalia a president Farmaajo dictatorship with 1.5-billion-dollar aid money, a downright lie to discredit Somalia’s resolve not to cave in foreign interference in its affairs, as contrarily evidenced by the weak Somali governments prior to president Mohamed Abdullahi Farrago’s administration. On the other hand, what is so surprising if not disgusting is that Mr. Rubin wrote the following as he cites a biased website that Somali leaders embezzled, a website apparently run by Somalia’s self-proclaimed republic of Somaliland to disseminate anti-Somali news and propaganda; he wrote incoherently as he inserts links, making it an issue, for instance, the international debt relief Somalia deserved so much because of its transparence and good governance, which the international donors praised:

“Under Ambassador Donald Yamamoto, aid to Somalia more than doubled. Over the last year, not only did USAID contribute near $500 million, but Yamamoto successfully advocated debt forgiveness that forced American taxpayers to write off $1 billion in Somali debt, much of which was embezzled by some of the same figures with whom the U.S. now partners. Yamamoto wanted to give Somalia even more.”

Finally, I would say that Somali president, Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo, despite his government’s term coming to an end, will nominate a new prime minister, and the new prime minister will be confirmed by the parliament. Somalia will not go back to the corrupted, old system of election. Somalia will succeed and hold a one-man, one-vote election. The sovereignty of Somalia is stronger under president Farmaajo leadership, and as Somalis, we will not let our sovereignty to be compromised by foreign actors. And, Mr. Rubin, I resect your opinion no matter how distorted it can be, but I don’t think the United States government, or the international donors agree with you!

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Developments in Russia’s Humanitarian Policy in Africa

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Yevgeny Primakov, the Russian politician, and journalist has been appointed the head of Rossotrudnichestvo, an agency promoting Russia’s humanitarian policy, following a decree signed by Vladimir Putin. Primakov is the successor to Eleanora Mitrofanova, who led the department since December 2017. Future changes in humanitarian policy embodied by Rossotrudnichestvo are thought to create a more favorable regime for Russia in the world arena along with more solidarity.

In order for that to be the case, Russia’s humanitarian policy needs a fundamental review. In recent years, trends that may serve as an impetus for necessary future changes have emerged. The first innovation concerns the functioning of organizations promoting Russia’s international policy and the assessment of their performance. The second determines their regional focus.

As for the revision of the functional features of Russian institutions of humanitarian policy, the necessity to work with NGOs on the ground and use digital technologies seems crucial. Firstly, clarification of the country’s priorities in the field of humanitarian policy could turn useful. Drawing attention to modern power diffusion from state actors to non-state ones, Russian institutions may concern themselves with Russian humanitarian projects’ effectiveness and motivate Russian donors and actors to be more focused on practical work “on the ground.” A shift from only international level cooperation to cooperation on supranational and subnational levels could ensure Russia’s influence and, as a result, a more favorable treatment.

The further issue is effectiveness. With specific humanitarian projects, this means that institutions could improve the situation of the population, communities, and households — only such an effect can and should be a criterion for the effectiveness of the humanitarian policy. Along with official channels, the implementation of this mission requires a more active involvement stemming from the non-governmental sector, namely the media community, and Russian business companies conducting foreign economic activity. It is a search for common ground, universal themes, and areas of interaction in which public opinion abroad (non-governmental organizations, communities) in the future could become a decision-making center for the development of joint dialogue and mutual understanding. In conditions of high uncertainty, digital technologies could have a positive effect on more efficient work.

When it comes to reorienting the regional foreign policy of humanitarian diplomacy institutions, the African continent appears as a priority. The humanitarian policy includes the promotion of humanitarian values. Historically, Russia defends such humanitarian values as peace preservation and justice. Considering the current power transition among states (and it’s moving from West to East and stronger cooperation North-South), Russia could be perceived in international affairs as a guarantor of peace. Consequently, the second apparent humanitarian policy shift is developing more adequate approaches in several areas and regions. The most relevant policy directions for Russia are the countries of the former USSR, the Middle East, the Asia-Pacific region, Africa, and South America. The last two are considered to be resource centers as well as business hubs that if successfully overcame (concerning Africa) problems such as mass hunger and the spread of diseases, could become a field of activity for Russian companies’ interest, and contribute to the development of humanitarian initiatives. These humanitarian initiatives should not be taken as a thing-in-itself, initiatives just for existing initiatives, but rather as a useful tool, providing new employments, further education, and better life opportunities.

The change in the humanitarian agenda is visible on the example of topics within the SPIEF. The SPIEF is an annual Russian business event in the economic field, which has been held since 1997. The Forum’s key mission is to be a practical tool for business, allowing to overcome the barriers that divide Russia and other countries, both geographical and informational. If we look at the previous discussions’ development in relation to the humanitarian agenda, the movement toward the shifts has already begun. Further analysis covers humanitarian issues discussed at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum 2017-2019. The Forum has been attended by senior officials of international organizations, representatives from around 140 countries.

Since 2017, the Forum has been showing the need for interaction with NGOs. The topics of discussion of the Forum 2017 covered corporate social responsibility programs, the implementation of humanitarian initiatives, and the public sector’s cooperation with NGOs. The two messages leading the meeting were: any investment project needs a humanitarian component. The costs borne by the state will primarily lead to an improvement in other’s people lives, their health and safety.

The SPIEF-2018 was more focused on “work on the ground initiatives,” as well as with their performance evaluation. In this regard, coordination at the international level alongside the public sector’s active participation in overcoming the obstacles of the agricultural sector of countries is necessary. Going beyond the scope of symbolic activities, corporations make a significant contribution to the implementation of programs aimed at improving the social situation, the quality of life, the provision of humanitarian and medical care services, as well as combating epidemics. Moreover, the state and business’s interaction reduces the risks of natural disasters, but the market underestimates the effectiveness of investments in security. In this regard, state bodies should provide new conditions for beneficial cooperation with the entrepreneurs.

The SPIEF-2019 brought to the surface the digitalization and the level of women’s participation in solving global problems. The topic diversified more into humanitarian cooperation of the state and business on healthcare, culture, education, and digitalization. For the first time, the African continent became more active as representatives from some African countries attended SPIEF. The parties expressed the necessity to develop joint educational programs in education globalization and the labor market. Participants concluded that the digital economy provides women with more opportunities for self-realization. However, to popularize a successful woman’s image and create comfortable working conditions for women, there is still a lot of work to do.

The African direction from 2019 is becoming predominant. Hence why the regional movement of the Russian humanitarian mission is primarily aimed at the South. It is also worth highlighting the Russia-Africa dialogue. Over the past 20 years, African countries have improved cooperation significantly. The problems identified during the discussion are as follows: underdeveloped infrastructure in Africa’s transport, energy, and finance; the African economic overdependency on natural resources; and insufficient level of business interests in Africa. The participants concluded that it is necessary to stimulate cooperation and raise business awareness of the African and Russian markets’ possibilities.

The development of relations between Russia and Africa is officially recognized as a priority. The problem of mutually beneficial Russian-African cooperation is highly multifaceted, far-reaching and essential to ensure Russia’s interests in the international arena. The expansion of Russian presence now results from an increase in the supply of industrial and food products, development of investment cooperation, expanding Russian participation in the development of the economics of the African continent.

Russian-African relations have enough opportunities to play a prominent role in efforts to promote Russia’s humanitarian policy. Russian humanitarian policy needs a fundamental revision at the functional and regional levels. At the operational level, this is expressed in closer cooperation with NGOs and digital technologies to work more effectively on the ground. Through interaction with the regions, the importance of Africa has increased. For Russia, this is a promising area for promoting humanitarian values such as peace preservation and justice.

In this regard, Rossotrudnichestvo is perhaps the primary tool for implementing Russian humanitarian policy. Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) was established in 2008 and today operates in 80 countries. As for Africa, the Russian centers of science and culture (RCSC) are open in Egypt, Zambia, the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), Morocco, Tanzania, Tunisia, and Ethiopia; Agency representative works at the Russian Embassy in South Africa.

Thus, changes in Russia’s humanitarian policy abroad are expected with the appointment of the new head of Rossotrudnichestvo. Humanitarian policy needs to be revised both functionally and in interaction with the regions. Russia has historically promoted such values as peace preservation and justice. Based on the tendencies and intentions of Mr.Primakov, there is a potential for cooperation with local NGOs. After analyzing the discussions on the humanitarian topics of the SPIEF for 2017-2019, two more trends are emerging. In addition to working closely with the community, there is a need to use digital technologies. This will allow Russia to work not from organization to organization, but from organization to individual. The coronavirus pandemic has pushed Russian education towards cyberspace, which will allow more to receive it. These are precisely life, health, safety, the level of women’s participation in solving global problems that are the goals of humanitarian policy, Russia can and knows how to work on them. In connection with the strengthening of interaction in the Russia-Africa direction, this region is clearly coming to the fore for Russian work. It is the region, like no other, that needs peace preservation and justice. So why shouldn’t Russia satisfy the external demand having the resources to do so?

From our partner RIAC

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Iran, China and the Djibouti experience

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With the escalation of US sanctions against Iran after the withdrawal of Donald Trump from the nuclear deal between two countries and lower oil prices in world markets, Iran’s oil revenues, which is the main source of its income, have fallen sharply and has increased inflation and recession in the country. To deal with such problems; Iran is seeking new incomes to expand its cooperation with China and is currently seeking to finalize a 25-year trade cooperation agreement with China.

However, for China, this is an opportunity to consolidate its economic influence in Iran more than before, and more importantly, it may be able to overcome the new trinity of power, which includes India, the United States, and China.

China and India have long sought to expand their markets in Asia. China has already found a place in the markets and politics of the African continent.

China’s is drowning developing countries in debt and. It has had successful responses in countries such as Djibouti and Sri Lanka, and here is a brief look at China’s experience in Djibouti. Where China established its first foreign military base.

The Djibouti experience can give us a prospect of the Iran-China agreement. Djibouti is a small country with a population of nearly one million people located in an area called the Horn of Africa. Djibouti is close to the Middle East, located on energy transit routes and on the shores of the Bab al-Mandel Sea, all of which have made the country geopolitically attractive to the west and east.

On January 8, 1979, China and Djibouti signed an agreement. Since then, China has offered its aid projects to Djibouti in the form of building a stadium, a monument, housing projects, a foreign office building, and several other projects.

Cooperation between the two countries began in 1982, and by the end of 2002, 478 cooperation agreements had been signed. Chinese companies like “the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CSCEC)”, “the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation”, and some other Chinese companies have involved in the Djibouti projects.

In 1998, China and Djibouti signed a trade agreement between the Government of the People’s Republic of China and the Government of the Republic of Djibouti. The deal increased trade between the two countries to $ 49.83 million in 2002, of which $ 49.81 million was China’s exports and 

$ 20,000 was Djibouti’s exports.

Two months after the opening of the port of Durala, China and Djibouti celebrated again for the completion of another building: China’s first military base outside the country, just a few kilometers from the port of Doraleh. Doraleh military facility built for the People’s Liberation Army (PLAN) navy It is also reported that at least one of the port docks is used exclusively by the Chinese. PLAN is now able to overlook one of the world’s most important trade zones: the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, where it is estimated that up to 20% of world trade passes from there.

According to the Africa Report, Djibouti’s spending on port and rail projects is estimated at $ 12 billion, while the country’s GDP in 2017 was only $ 1.85 billion. This variance prompted the IMF to warn about debt stability in the country.

In 2018, Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh called the Djibouti International Free zone, a $ 3.5 billion Chinese-funded investment, the hope of thousands of job seekers.

“Yes, our debt to China is 71% of our GDP,” Djibouti Foreign Minister Mohammad Ali Youssef said in a phone interview during a meeting in New York.”But we needed that infrastructure. It was natural that we increased our cooperation with China; Neither the United States nor Europe was ready to build the infrastructure we needed. We are looking for the progress of the country and the well-being of the people.”

In 2019, the ratio of the country’s total debt to its GDP exceeded 100%. A large portion of these debts was created by China to improve its ports and various investments. Djibouti’s debt to China exceeded what Djibouti could afford it.

Critics of Chinese debts claim that vulnerable and developing countries fall into China’s debt trap, emptying government coffers and creating a generation of taxpayers with giant bills, and In case of non-repayment of debts, Chinese banks will take ownership and control of their structures at strategic points.

Although African governments deny such an occurrence; This is what happened in Sri Lanka. In 2017, Sri Lanka gave the Chinese a large port after failing to pay its debt to them. The Sri Lankan government borrowed $ 1.5 billion from China to develop the port of Hambantota, which failed to repay, and to reduce its debt burden, provided it to China under a 99-year contract, and the company took over the port. CMport is; The same company that contracted to build the port of Doraleh!

Chinese merchants own a 23.5 percent share in a Djibouti holding company related to the Durala port terminal, including the Doraleh dry port and the Doraleh multi-purpose port, the latter of which was built with a $ 580 million loan from the Chinese company Eximbank.

Overall, according to research by Ernst & Young, Chinese companies doubled their investment between 2014 and 2018, spending $ 72.2 billion.

According to Johns Hopkins analysis, African countries have borrowed about $ 130 billion from China since 2000, and the amount of loans has tripled since 2012.

Djibouti officials, however, have always indicated that they have a good ability to repay their loans and will maintain control over these ports.

The head of the Djibouti Ports Fund, Abu Bakr Omar Hadi, said the money came mainly from China, but that we had our assets.

Of course, Djibouti cannot be compared to Iran because Djibouti does not have the capabilities of Iran for monetization and even needs to import to supply its basic needs. While Iran has great potential in many fields like energy, agriculture, tourism, and the like, these days all of these capabilities are overshadowed by unprecedented political relations and unprecedented sanctions, and as Iran’s hostility to the West deepens, it’s become more possible for Iran to trapped in Eastern debt.

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