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Impressions from South Africa’s election

Klaus Kotzé

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South Africa’s recent general election has bucked the international trend towards populism by consolidating its democracy at the political centre. The ruling African National Congress, led by the popular centrist, Cyril Ramaphosa, has maintained its outright majority by committing to the reform and cleaning up of the party and state.

South Africa went to the polls on May 8th to elect its sixth democratic government. Due to poor economic growth, extensive corruption and infighting in the governing African National Congress (ANC), this election had been billed to be the most consequential since the end of Apartheid, in 1994. Except for minor issues at polling stations and technical questions regarding the balloting system, South Africa’s peaceful and orderly ’s electoral process has ensured further democratic consolidation, proving itself as a bastion for free and fair elections on the continent.

With 57.5% of the national vote, the ANC has maintained its governing majority. The official opposition remains the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA), with 20.7%. Completing the Big Three is the leftwing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) who attained 10.8% of the vote. Eleven smaller parties captured enough votes to secure one or more seats in the sixth National Assembly. An assessment of the results illustrates several significant impressions.

The fringe fails to factor 

While democracies around the world have moved to the fringes, South Africa appears to be maturing towards the middle. Though the centre-left ANC and centre-right DA shed the same number of seats gained by the leftwing EFF and rightwing Freedom Front Plus (FF+), 19 and five respectively, the threat of further splintering to an array of radical fringe parties did not materialize. None of these parties, including Black First, Land First which rejects white membership and the National Front which advances a white secessionist state, achieved traction among the electorate. Neither received a singular seat in Parliament.

The FF+ and EFF may appear to be the election’s big winners, but this analysis is superficial. The FF+ has simply captured a quadrant of the persistently mobile white conservative vote. Unlike the DA which has failed to support this group, the FF+ has offered it an unabashed home. The EFF almost doubled the bounty of its first electoral outing in 2014. It did, however, fail to make the kind of inroads it hoped for and was expected to receive. The party which calls itself the government in waiting, whose leader is referred to as the commander in chief, which dominates local social media optics, and which attracts a significant sector of the young black vote, may fill a football stadium with jubilant supporters at a pre-election rally. It could however not perform on the day that mattered. The ambitious EFF was seeking to capture a greater chunk of the ANC’s vote, thereby taking South African politics and economics further toward the radical left. Its failure to secure more votes at a time that the ANC was particularly weak points to an electorate with little appetite for populist radicalism. The EFF, with its politically astute and ambitious leadership will now be compelled to tone down its agitation and provide practical policy alternatives. It will have to move towards the middle if its goal of power is to be realised.

The centre holds

The losses of both the ANC and DA will demand introspection and clear future strategies. The DA faces an inflection point. The party which has traditionally received the overwhelming support of minority groups has actively been seeking to break this threshold by courting the majority black support. Its poor performance suggests that not only did it fail to make inroads in this sector; its attempt to reach across the aisle resulted in its traditional support feeling alienated. Furthermore, it was unable to consolidate an approach to foil the popular Cyril Ramaphosa. The DA’s 6% growth in 2014, largely taken from the ANC, was received for its campaign to Stop Zuma! – a tactic to oppose disgraced and maligned presidential incumbent, Jacob Zuma. This time around there was no boogie man to blame, leaving the DA with more questions than answers as to its future political approach and ideology. As a traditional, Western liberal party, the DA appears out of touch with South Africa’s broader socio-economic reality. 2019 may very well be the last time that the DA emerges as the official opposition.

While the ANC achieved its worst electoral result since 1994, shedding 5% from its 2014 showing, it nevertheless maintained its outright majority. It also maintained all the provinces where it governed previously. The ANC’s powerful mandate is largely thanks to President Ramaphosa’s clean image and his commitment to reform. Ramaphosa, whose popularity exceeds that of his party, replaced Zuma in a narrow victory at the party’s elective conference in late 2017. Ramaphosa, a trade unionist cum billionaire businessman who was Nelson Mandela’s preferred successor, has been the face of the ANC’s electoral drive. Contrary to the traditional advance of a manifesto, the ANC’s campaign has been centred on Ramaphosa. His accession to power indicates the commencement of reform and cleaning up, from the top.

While the ANC’s promise of renewal seems to have satisfied those deciding to cast their ballots, a significant sector of the 55 million population simply stayed away. More than nine million eligible voters did not register to vote. Another nine million registered voters did not make their cross, and more than a quarter of a million voters decided to spoil their vote. These numbers point to a frustrated populace that is tired of the cycle of politics wherein the ANC rules with impunity. Significantly, there was a clear division in voter turnout in urban and suburban districts compared to informal and rural dwellings. The former, the traditional terrain of the opposition, observed an enormous voter turnout (more than 90% of registered voters), the latter, the heartland of the ANC, experienced a considerable stay-away. While the failures of the state are collectively placed at the ANC’s door, so too are its successes. The millions of poor South Africans receiving state subsidies are clearly unwilling to trade what they have for the speculative promises of populism. Simply, 17 million subsidy beneficiaries see the ANC as the state and vice versa.

Going forward from the elections

The appearance that President Ramaphosa is now comfortably in power is, however, an illusion. Though he was able to mobilise the electorate and achieved a comfortable mandate, Ramaphosa’s greatest task was always going to commence once the elections are over. His challenges are internal to his party. He needs to effectively deal with a splintered party wherein a contingent of allies of the former president remain in senior positions. Ramaphosa will have to act swiftly to neutralise this powerful group and prove to the electorate and the markets that he can implement his promises. His first move will have to be to assemble a clean and competent cabinet that is able enact his reformist policies. Before the elections, Ramaphosa tactically delegated power to institutions that have laboured under poor and often corrupt leadership. He will have to lead from the front; he will have to act. He must capitalise on the positive sentiment across civil society and business to work together towards overcoming the perilous situation under Zuma.

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Oil: A blessing or a curse for Somalia?

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Somalia recently reached a landmark agreement with Shell and Exxon Mobil to develop the vast petroleum reserves believed to lie off the troubled country’s coast. The deal rekindles a previous joint venture with the two oil giants that was cut short in 1990 when the ousting of Somali dictator Mohamed Siad Barre threw the country into a prolonged period of instability—and rekindles debates over whether oil will present greater opportunities or risks to Mogadishu.

Somalia’s new petroleum law, passed by the federal parliament earlier this year, has paved the way for this renewed exploration of the country’s extensive natural resources—estimated at as much as 100 billion barrels. The government hopes that drawing on these riches will help kickstart economic regeneration as the country’s security situation slowly but steadily improves after decades of conflict, terrorism and piracy.

Talks are now being held to enable the agreed concessions to be converted into revenue sharing agreements (RSAs) that will return 55 percent of offshore oil revenues to Somalia’s central government, with the remainder being channelled to member states. A new licensing round, covering another 15 offshore blocks, has begun, with concessions expected to be awarded early next year.

Rebuilding a damaged economy or fuelling rifts?

Concerns are nevertheless rising that the possible influx of petroleum resources may exacerbate existing rifts between Somali states. The adjacent states of Somaliland and Puntland have disputed the ownership of the oil-rich Sool and Sanaag regions for decades; if an exploration licence were granted to a foreign company, the situation could easily descend into war.

Meanwhile, the prospect of oil revenues has also added fuel to the fire of a long-running maritime border row between Somalia and Kenya. In February this year, Nairobi accused Mogadishu of an ‘illegal land grab’ after Somalia attempted to auction off oil and gas blocks from disputed territory on the border between the two countries – a flashpoint which resulted in the recall of the Kenyan ambassador and the tit-for-tat expulsion of the Somali diplomat in Nairobi. The Somali government responded by withdrawing the disputed blocks from sale, pending a judgement by the ICJ.

Learning from experience: Senegal and Equatorial Guinea

As Somalia wrestles with the question of how to benefit from its oil reserves while eschewing further strife, it has examples – both good and bad – among fellow African nations who’ve uncovered fossil fuel deposits.

Senegal, not historically an oil-producing nation, has been the site of a number of promising discoveries recently. Industry analysts have suggested that the Senegal Basin could be the “next offshore boom”—particularly likely following the announcement earlier this month that new, high-quality gas reserves have been discovered at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim site straddling the Senegalese-Mauritanian border.

Senegal has already faced some of the troubles which inevitably accompany rich petroleum finds. The African Energy Chamber has suggested that recent allegations that the Senegalese president’s brother improperly benefitted from the awarding of oil and gas contracts in fact stemmed from an attempt to taint the reputation of both President Macky Sall and the Senegalese fossil fuel industry in general.

Senegal’s oil hopes have not been derailed, however, and Dakar is making a concerted effort to reap the maximum benefit from its oil reserves. The country’s new petroleum code, voted into law earlier this year, has brought Senegal’s legal framework for natural resources in line with industry norms, increased transparency and upped the state’s share of oil revenues.

If Dakar is so far managing to avoid the notorious “resource curse”, other African countries flush with oil have not found the fuel to be such a boon. Equatorial Guinea is practically a textbook example of a country squandering its oil reserves without returning tangible benefits to its citizens. In fact, while Equatorial Guinea’s per-capita wealth is the highest of any country in sub-Saharan Africa, government spending in areas like health and education are way below average.

That’s not to say some haven’t benefited from the oil millions: President Obiang—who has ruled the country with an iron fist since he had his uncle shot and killed in 1979— has managed to shore up the family coffers nicely, collecting race cars and mansions in Europe and America. Obiang once questioned “what right does the opposition have to criticize the actions of a government?” and spent his early years overseeing Black Beach, the most notorious prison in Africa.

Since Equatorial Guinea discovered oil, however, the despot has been more or less accepted by the international community. The once-shuttered U.S. Embassy in Malabo was reopened and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice referred to Obiang as “an old friend”.

Somalia needs to tread carefully

The cases of Senegal and Equatorial Guinea, among others, offer Somalia guidance as it attempts to use its oil to further its progress towards peace and reconciliation. The involvement of US troops has helped to push back the terrorist group al-Shabab, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that Somalia could qualify for debt relief as early as next spring – which would enable the government to plan public spending programmes and invest in job-creation schemes. However, regulators have cautioned that more needs to be done in the interim to tackle poverty and build a more resilient economy.

Against this backdrop, an oil boom could help Somalia rise to the challenges it faces. But it’s also possible that the influx of wealth could serve to fuel already-serious corruption. In the 2018 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), Somalia received the highest score out of all 180 countries ranked, making it the most corrupt in the world. Tapping into oil revenues could help lift Somalis out of endemic poverty—almost three-quarters of its population survive on less than two dollars a day— but the vast cash flow this would release may also cause political corruption to thrive, as Equatorial Guinea has shown. Carefully managing any oil finds, as Senegal is trying to do, will be essential for Somalia to maintain recent progress.

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The ambiguity and the ambivalence of the EU position in Western Sahara

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Morocco enjoys an extraordinary geo-strategic position thanks to its Mediterranean Atlantic coastline and its proximity to the European continent, but at the same time, the Moroccan diplomatic influence comes from its occupation of Western Sahara, which is considered as lungs and a Gateway for all connection of Morocco with Africa across the road of El Guergarate. This situation has direct geopolitical and  geoeconomic consequences on Moroccan relations with the European Union and Sub Saharan Africa.

Morocco and the European Union (EU) are bound by an association agreement signed in 1996 and entered into force in 2000, which is concretized in October 2008, by an “advanced status”.

In this context, the 14th meeting of the EU Association Council with Morocco of 27 June 2019, witnessing a new European approach to the issue of Western Sahara, which has been relegated to the second plan, without any declaration that respects the inalienable right of the Saharawi people to self-determination. It must be admitted, that only the European Court of Justice, which has an indisputable position respecting the international law of non-self-governing territories in the case of Western Sahara.

Indeed, the judgment of 21 December 2016 of the CJEU on the EU-Morocco agricultural agreement (Polisario v. Council), and that of 27 February 2018 on the fisheries agreement (Western Sahara Campaign judgment), distinguish the territory of Western Sahara from Moroccan territory.

However, on 16 July 2018, the EU Council of Foreign Ministers adopted the amendments to the protocols on agricultural products of the EU-Morocco Association Agreement, which have the effect of extending its scope to the territory of Western Sahara. The text was approved by the European Parliament on 16 January 2019. Thus born the new position of the EU in favour of Morocco and against the interests of the Saharawi people.

The reasons for the EU’s position are purely strategic and economic

If in post-imperialism the power is vital for the defence of peace, however, be aware that at the age of postmodernism, the use of force is a failure of policy rather than an instrument of policy. The principal objective of foreign policy is to maintain peace and prosperity.

You have to know, at every crisis between Morocco and the EU concerning the Western Sahara issue, it is Morocco that wins politically, because it has other elements of the game such as immigration, security, terrorism, smuggling, cannabis and drugs ,to decrease the risk of these all threatening, EU help Morocco to play the role of the guardian for European security, and the only compensation for Morocco is the change of the EU position in favour of Moroccan thesis.

With the same idea, it is the European companies and especially those of France and Spain that take advantage of the natural resources of Western Sahara, in complicity with the Moroccan authorities whether in agriculture, fishing, phosphates or other metals. But there is another factor, that pushes the EU to change his position.

The divergence between the Polisario Front and Morocco push EU to impose its agenda

It is important to make clear, that Morocco is not the administering Power, but the Occupying Power, with a legal status similar to that of Israel in the occupied Palestinian territories. The United Nations has never recognized Morocco as the administering power, in fact, has on several occasions disavowed such an occupation.

Since the blockage of the referendum process by Morocco in 1993 (hypothetically where can the Saharawi people choose their destiny), and despite the negotiations and the good offices of UN, the two parties Morocco and Polisario Front are far from choosing the path of reconciliation.

In fact, the Moroccan approach, finds its origin in the idea of Clausewitz, for who war was the continuation of policy. On the other hand, the approach of the Polisario Front accommodated with that of Sun Tzu, the Chinese Taoist military philosopher, who argued that the best war was one that did not have to fight.

This situation has led the EU to choose a new approach.

The EU solution is based on the political approach of enlarging the system

The end of the cold war and the subsequent development was caused by the defeat of the Soviet domestic system has consecrated the victory of the American capitalist system. It is in this sense that the EU wants to strengthen its domestic affairs to have strong diplomacy outside the EU. To exercising influence abroad, you must obtain power at home.

George Kennan had already noticed, ” what must always be accompanied by, or be made subordinate to, a different sort of undertaking, aimed at widening the horizons and changing the motives of men”. We think this observation of the famous American diplomacy, summarizes the diplomacy followed by the EU over Western Sahara since the advent of the Moroccan- European association.

Likewise, the remark of Jean Monnet one of the instigators of the creation of the EU stipulates when you have a problem you cannot solve, enlarge the context. For the UE it is a tactical equation, to find other temporary alternatives solutions against the cardinal principles of international law that govern the relations between different sovereigns states (Morocco and SADR) ,in order to engage larger interests.

You have to notice, the absence of a conflict management policy related to the Maghreb area, whether from a point of view of the military, political, economic and cultural, with the exception of 5+5 dialogue( and where the Saharawi’s are not present), suggests that the European approach is far to be unanimous because of the contradictions of interest between Northern Europe and those of South. The Nordic countries are for the decolonization of Western Sahara, while those of South are for a negotiated solution according to realpolitik situation.

There are other differences of opinion between Germany and France,  for example,if Germany attaches greater importance to respect UN resolutions and respect international law by using the soft power in all its forms of influence, persuasion or negotiation, instead of, France maintains a traditional approach of military design and in a colonial vision.

However, it is important to mention, that the linkage between economic cooperation and conflict resolution, could lead to a definitive peace agreement between Morocco and Polisario Front, if  the EU pushes Morocco and SADR after their accession to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), to join an economical sharing in order to find a peaceful solution to their territorial dispute.

Finally, can the EU come to the same conclusion like John Bolton the security advisor of President Trump, when he say( in a statement to the US magazine on Dec. 13, 2018, on the sidelines of the presentation of the new US strategy in Africa) “ we must think of the people of Western Sahara, think of the Saharawis, many of whom are still in refugee camps near Tindouf, in the Sahara desert, and we must allow these people and their children to return. and have normal lives”.

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Kenyan universities aim to be “greenest in the world”

MD Staff

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Strathmore University students, pictured here with the Flipi-Flopi boat made of recycled marine plastic, organized a garbage clean up in their community. Photo by Canaan Owuor, Strathmore University student.

In Kenya, over 70 universities are being called on by the UN Environment Programme and the Kenyan Government to work together and transform their campuses to be the “greenest in the world”. This comes as Strathmore University in Nairobi has put in place one of the greenest campuses in Africa and is offering its support to other Kenyan universities.

“Universities across Africa can run on the power of the sun and set new standards for sustainability,” says Professor da Silva of Strathmore University. “But it’s just not on the roofs of our campuses that we need to take action. We also need to support students to take action in support of the planet in their personal lives.”

Strathmore University set up its own 600-kilowatt photovoltaic grid tie system about five years ago and is not only enjoying free energy from the sun but also selling the excess to Kenya Power under a 20-year contract.

Another initiative on campus involves “green buildings” which utilize natural lighting, water evaporation cooling systems and rain water, making them much more affordable to run than conventional buildings. Students and faculty members are also working together on projects around plastic recycling and using food left-overs to produce natural gas.

Support is now growing to re-establish the Kenya Green University Network in the country with network members including 18 Universities, such as Karatina University, University of Nairobi and Kenyatta University. At a recent meeting, they

committed to a new plan of action including greening campus operations while also enhancing student engagement and learning.

Apart from the desire to go green, many universities are seeing the shift to adopting green technologies as a way to reduce costs and further sustainability. Strathmore University and Karatina University were selected to lead the effort to commit universities to going green.

Working closely with the Ministry of Environment and the National Environment Management Authority, UN Environment will be hosting a Kenya University Summit in the coming months, calling on other Kenyan universities to join the network.

“Kenyan universities not only define the learning and careers of the next generation, they can also shape their behaviours,” says Juliette Biao, Africa Director for UN Environment. “We look forward to supporting the Green University Network to inspire Kenya’s students and to become a point of reference to other universities on the continent.”

Professor Abutho from Karatina University says: “The [Kenya Green University Network] meeting was timely and has helped me establish relevant contacts to support Karatina University’s solar energy project. Karatina University is at a very advanced stage to implement this project and intends to go 100 per cent solar in the near future.”

The Green University Network in Kenya draws on the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment’s Arusha Declaration “to strengthen environmental education and training and develop an action plan for Africa” and the lessons from Kenya will be shared at a ministerial meeting in South Africa in August.

“I’m particularly happy about the proposed green campuses plan and incorporation of environmental studies into the curriculum,” says Daystar University student Chris Waweru. “This will help students gain the awareness, knowledge and skills needed to impact the environment, thus fast-tracking the movement to a greener and cleaner Kenya.”

UN Environment

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