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Afghanistan’s Security Distribution in the region

Sajad Abedi

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Considering the weapons and skills of the Central Asian armies that have weapons and skills of the former Soviet Union, the forces of these countries are likely to face more severe insurgent resistance. It should be kept in mind that they cannot provoke all people. At no point in the past twelve years, Central Asian countries have not been willing to join a multi-national force and have not shown interest in it. Also, the strong combination of Central Asian armies in Afghanistan would be unpleasant. For example, speculation is that the Tajik army will be deployed to Tajikistan in Afghanistan. The same will be the case with the Uzbek and Turkmen forces. In this case, they will receive a brutal response from the Taliban. In fact, the Taliban will provoke Pashtun nationalism against forces from Central Asian countries to break up Afghanistan (from the Taliban’s perspective). Pashtuns do not turn their attention to this and will target Tajiks, Uzbeks and Turkmens of Afghanistan. In such a scenario, Afghanistan easily falls into a full-blown civil war.

Other countries in the region that are likely to send troops to Afghanistan include Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt from the Middle East. Since people in these countries are involved with the Afghan insurgency, it is very unlikely that these countries will join the security force of several regional nationalities in Afghanistan. Middle East countries do not want to bet on deploying troops in Afghanistan. It can be very unpleasant to fight with insurgents that are being used by them in these countries, especially when these countries have not yet gone through the Arab Spring.

It is clear from the information that terrorist groups and their supporters have made a determination to horrify in Afghanistan in the coming year. The Taliban’s neglect of the Afghan government’s peace plan clearly shows that the Taliban have focused their attention on the war with the government in Afghanistan. The process of electing the National Assembly and the district councils is as important as the legitimacy of the government of Afghanistan, the failure of this process is also important for the Taliban and terrorist groups in Afghanistan. In addition, developments in the region and international affairs, such as the withdrawal from the United States of America of the program of action with Iran and the defeat of ISIL in the Middle East, have had a significant impact on increasing insecurity in Afghanistan.

The ISIL group has carried out the most deadly attacks in Afghanistan this year, and has been able to focus more attention on analysts and news outlets. But what is most worrying is that this group has turned to the massacre of a particular social group in Afghanistan to flame up the fire of sectarian strife in Afghanistan, which, if not blocked by the government, has further concerns will create. The ISIS group launched this year in Afghanistan with a deadly explosion in the Shiite section of western Kabul, killing about 69 dead and 120 wounded. The incident took place at a polling station for the upcoming parliamentary elections in the Shiite neighborhood of Kabul, which was held by ISIL.

The ISIL suicide attacks against the religious and cultural sites of the Shiites of Afghanistan are now one of the major problems and challenges of the national unity government in the security sector of this people, which has so far failed to succeed and failed. Since its inception in Afghanistan, ISIL has been the most deadly attack on its Shiite population. Following the bloodiest suicide attacks in the demonstration on the Dehmzang square, Baqer al-olum and Al-Zahra Mosque, the most bloody suicide attack took place in the mosque during the winter of last year, resulting in the martyrdom of 40 worshipers and the wounding of 90 people. Following the bitter incident, another suicide bomber struck Imam Khomeini Mosque in Dasht-e-Baruchi, Kabul, killing more than 40 people and wounding 50. Following was a suicide bombing at the Tibian Social Cultural Center, where 52 cultural activists, journalists and Shiite students, martyrs and 90 others were wounded. At the beginning of spring this year, a bloody suicide attack was carried out on the pilgrimage of the Shah Shah, and a month later, a suicide attack took place at the Tazkara Distribution Center to register for the electoral campaign, which took all of these attacks to the ISIL group. In addition to the bloody attacks that took place in Kabul, ISIL was also carrying out deadly attacks on Shiite religious sites in other provinces of Afghanistan, an example of which was ISIL’s attack on the Javadiyah mosque in Herat city, which resulted in 30 martyrs and more than 60 others were wounded.

The initial analysis is that the ISIS group is seeking revenge against the Shiites of Afghanistan because of the large presence of Afghan Shiite youth through Iran’s recruiting of the Syrian war. This reprisal has caused the religious, cultural and religious communities of Afghanistan to always be threatened by ISIS. In addition, the ISIS group ideologically views all Shiites around the world with a hostile and reprehensible relationship that the countries supporting the radical and Takfiri ideology of the ISIS group also do not ignore any inhuman attitude towards the Shiites, As a result of this Takfiri view, the Shiites of Afghanistan are more threatened and vulnerable. It should be noted that in the recruitment process by the Iranian government of Afghan refugee children in Iran for deployment to Syria and in the area of providing security for Shiite citizens in Afghanistan, the central government of Afghanistan has a major responsibility that has been very weak in this area. Is. Meanwhile, Shiites and the Hazaras have shown a glorious civilization in democratic processes like the previous election, and have not, as the most civilized social group, conducted any illegal behavior for government institutions in the center and provinces. But again, they have been deprived of their most basic citizenship rights, whose neighborhoods in Kabul are an irrefutable certificate in this regard.

But another analysis in this regard is very different from that which was raised. Based on this view, ISIS is likely to be a fake intelligence and intelligence phenomenon Pakistan and other terrorist countries use to launch specific operations and sectarian wars in Afghanistan, Ideological, is trying to hit the central government of Afghanistan. According to this analysis, the relationship between the Taliban and ISIL is very close to each other. Because the Taliban group is also using it to use any means and behavior that undermined the Afghan government. The reality is the killing of innocent people by terrorists with the intent of punishing the central government for their demands. Concerns in these cases are doubling where the central government has been weak in securing the security of Afghan citizens, especially in the area of security of the religious and cultural centers of the Shiites, which has been very weak and unobtrusive. As a result, as mentioned above, only in the capital, the statistics of the dead and wounded Shiites are much more terrible than some of the statistics and information is available.

The steps that the Afghan government has taken to protect the Shi’i centers has been to ensure the security of Shiite mosques by the Shiite people themselves. Although they suffered from lack of equipment and facilities and did not receive any training from the beginning to the last month, they were still relatively effective. Since the recent Daesh’s bloody attack on the IDS center for voting registration in the Shiite neighborhood of western Kabul was faced with intense civilian reactions. This has led the Afghan president to consider an independent security domain for the security of Western Kabul’s citizens that the news of the opening of this area has been published in the media, but the residents of western Kabul have so far not been aware of the existence of this area and I personally could not really I get the point where the area actually opened in what part of West Kabul is open and where it is.

The second major security challenge of the Afghan government is the Taliban’s terrorist and terrifying activities. Last year, in addition to the center of Afghanistan, distant provinces of the country also witnessed widespread unrest that the recent Taliban attack on downtown Farah was at the top of its domestic news.

Taliban successive attacks in Farah city and the capture of the city at the beginning of last months by the Taliban showed that the Taliban group was more integrated and more enthusiastic from its donor countries than was expected. Find out Farah’s incident is beyond the existing analysis of what is important at the national level for Afghanistan, the Taliban’s message to the people and government of Afghanistan. By the end of 1396, the Afghan government, with the consent of all political parties in Afghanistan, declared unilateral and unconditional peace for the Taliban, and considered the great concessions for Taliban readiness for the peace process. But so far, there has been no indication from the Taliban that they are prepared to accept peace. In addition, the Taliban group, with the onset of its spring strike called Khandagh, virtually showed that the Taliban are still determined by their hostility to the Afghan people and started suicide bombing wars from remote areas of Afghanistan, where the Farah incident It’s an example.

ISIL and the Taliban now cover all terrorist groups as their subdivision and become more coherent, but the Afghan government has not responded to Afghan public opinion so far. It was expected that the government of Afghanistan would be more determined to mobilize public opinion after rejecting a peace plan without the preconditions of the Afghan government from the Taliban. But on the contrary, it was a Taliban group that proved its determination in Farah.

In the war of intelligence and guerrilla warfare, without the mobilization of public opinion and forcing the enemy to go through peace through a war, the Afghan government has never been able to succeed. But due to the coherence of the Taliban group, the failure of talks between the Taliban and the Meriya without the presence of the Government of Afghanistan, the high profile of the Mola-barader in these talks, the withdrawal of US troops from the Taliban group and the role of Pakistan in the Afghan peace process, the prolongation of partisan wars could finally cost Impose a lot on the government of Afghanistan.

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Defense

In a Dark Time: The Expected Consequences of an India-Pakistan Nuclear War

Prof. Louis René Beres

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Twenty-one years ago, in 1998, Dr. Louis René Beres, Professor Emeritus of International Law at Purdue University, published an authoritative article in the AMERICAN UNIVERSITY INTERNATIONAL LAW REVIEW (Vol. 14, No.2.).  Titled “In a Dark Time: The Expected Consequences of an India-Pakistan Nuclear War,” this piece looked closely at underlying disagreements and strategies of the two adversarial states, with special reference to plausible consequences of any eventual nuclear weapons exchange. Fortunately, though no such exchange has ever taken place, current tensions in the region  are sending prospectively fearful signals in both capitals. In addition to rising concerns over Kashmir, Pakistan not long ago codified a new nuclear war fighting strategy of deterrence. Known in formal strategic parlance as a “counterforce” strategy, it is premised on the notion that the threat (implicit or explicit) of shorter range/lower yield nuclear missiles will enhance Pakistan’s deterrent credibility. Yet, if this dramatic change from a more traditionally “countervalue” nuclear strategy should sometime be linked with certain corresponding “launch-on-warning” tactics, the likelihood of an India-Pakistan nuclear exchange could then become unacceptably high. What might be the tangible outcome of any such ominous exchange? To answer accurately, this informed 1998 assessment by Professor Beres will be well-worth reading or re-reading, as the case may be: read or download the pdf

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Kashmir: A Nuclear Flash Point

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India has challenged the whole world with nuclear war, the Defense Minister announced to review its policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. It is very serious and threatened the “Peace” of not only of this region but with serious global repercussions. India and Pakistan have a history of 4 wars in the last 7 decades. But these wars were different from today when both countries are nuclear powers and keeping enough piles of weapons to destroy each other completely. Under this scenario, Indian Defense Minister’s remarks are an irresponsible and direct threat to “Peace”.

India staged a drama of “Pulwama” in February 2019 and used this excuse to attack Pakistan. Indian Air Force entered into Pakistan and Dropped Bombs deem inside Pakistan. In spite of the fact, Pakistan possesses the capabilities to retaliate immediately, but observed restrains and patience. Because Pakistan is a peace-loving nation and a responsible state. The visionary leadership of Pakistan understands the consequences of War and smartly averted a full-fledged war. However, two days later, Pakistan demonstrated its strength cautiously and conveyed its strong message that Pakistan loves peace and does not want war, although, having the capacity to respond reciprocity.

Pakistan has been a victim of war for 4 decades in Afghanistan and knows the suffering of war. But has learned a bitter experience and become mature enough to avoid any war.

India has occupied part of Kashmir in 1948 at the time of getting independence from the British. United Nation has passed resolutions on the resolution of Kashmir issue. But India has been delaying and has not implemented any one of UN resolution on Kashmir during the past 7 decades. It is disrespect and humiliation for the UN too.

But the recent Indian move to accede Kashmir unilaterally is a very serious breach of UN and International norms. There is a reaction from almost all over the world. China has condemned Indian move, Russia has opposed, the US has not accepted Indian action, British has criticized, European Parliament has objected, OIC has condemned, various human right Organization and NGOs has rejected the Indian accession. A wide range of protests was witnessed in all major cities of the world, Washington, New York, London, Paris, Brussel, Berlin, Tehran, etc.

Some of the countries care about their economic interests with India, but even the people of these countries are voicing for people of Kashmir. Trust, all nations, and individuals, who care about humanity and value Peace, must stand up to protect the rights of Kashmiri people.

Pakistan extends its full support and stands with any International Organization or platform, any Nation, any Country, any Individual, who stands up for the just cause of Kashmir. It is a principled stand to extend full moral and diplomatic support to Kashmir.

I am scared of Indian desperate behavior, where India is has increased violation of Line-of-Control (LoC), using cluster Bombs, Using Heavy Weapons, Targeting Civilian Population inside Pakistan along the LoC. India has evacuated all foreign tourists and local visitors from Kashmir. Educational Institutions are closed, Media has been stopped from reporting the facts, telephone, mobile and Internet Service has been closed down, Kashmir has been isolated from the rest of the world. One million troops equipped with lethal weapons are controlling 15 million un-armed civilians. Killing, Torturing, Rape, Kidnapping, Arrest and all types of war-crimes are taking place. Draconian Law introduced to shoot at spot any suspect without any legal formalities. Curfew for the last 12 days has made life impossible due to the shortage of food and basic necessities of life. 15 Millions Lives are at stake and at the mercy of the International Community. Indian butchers are ruthless and as a state policy, engaged in genocide.

There are pieces of evidence that India may initiate a war with Pakistan to divert the World-Attention from the deteriorated situation of Kashmir. India may try to hide its war-crimes in Kashmir by engaging Pakistan in a full-scale war. Pakistan Foreign Ministry has issued a statement “The substance and timing of the Indian Defense Minister’s statement are highly unfortunate and reflective of India’s irresponsible and belligerent behavior. It further exposes the pretense of their No First Use policy, to which we have never accorded any credence. No First use pledge is non-verifiable and cannot be taken at face value, especially when the development of offensive capabilities and force postures belie such claims. Pakistan has always proposed measures relating to nuclear restraint in South Asia and has eschewed measures that are offensive in nature. Pakistan will continue to maintain a credible minimum deterrence posture.”

Any misadventure by India may cost a heavy loss to humanity. Its impact may not be limited to Pakistan only but may harm the whole region and the whole world. International Community, must act immediately before it is too late.

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China’s Defense Policy: Questions and answers

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The Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China has published a paper titled the White Paper “National Defense in  New Era”. The document is designed to become a response of the Chinese leadership to other countries’ fears over the growing military power of the PRC. The paper outlines the main points of China’s national defense agenda. They envisage the containment of any external aggression, the safety of the population, social stability, protection of the territorial integrity and the marine and space interests of the PRC. 

The White Paper for the first time outlines the priorities of the Chinese army in the new era on the basis of the “four strategic pillars”. According to the paper, the Chinese army, acting in accordance with the strategic requirements of national security and development, carries out the assignments set by the Party and the people and provides strategic support for strengthening party leadership and the socialist system and  for protecting the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of the country. In addition, the army guarantees strategic support to protect the interests of China abroad and contributes to peace and development on the planet.

This document details defense expenditures and their structure. Over the past decades, the PRC has significantly reduced its military spending in proportion to national GDP and the state budget, but has increased its absolute value. In 1979, the country’s defense expenditures accounted for 5.43% of the GDP, while in 2017 – 1.26%. At present, China is the world’s sixth in the ratio of military budget to GDP (after the United States, Russia, India, Britain and France), while it holds  second place in the absolute volume of military expenses.

What triggered most interest is the statement under which the Chinese leadership vows to never be the first to use nuclear weapons whatever the circumstances. Beijing, the document says, has no intentions to participate in the nuclear arms race and will maintain and strengthen its nuclear potential only for ensuring national security. “China calls for a complete ban and destruction of nuclear weapons, is not going to compete with any country in an arms race, and will maintain its nuclear potential at a level appropriate to meet the needs of national security,” – the White Paper says.

This provision has caused the greatest number of questions: for one, why, in this case, China refuses to join the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty? What is often mentioned in this regard is that the US President has announced his intention to conclude a large-scale nuclear agreement with Russia and China on arms control. Perhaps, this is possible in the future.

But the important thing is that national defense policy and operational issues of arms control go separate. We remember Barack Obama’s speech on nuclear-free world, which he delivered in Prague in 2010 and for which he received the Nobel Peace Prize. But this did not mean and does not mean that the United States is ready to immediately dump nuclear weapons.

Incidentally, in the 2011 White Paper on Defense Issues, China (the only of the globally recognized nuclear powers) was the first to declare non-use of nuclear weapons. As for Beijing’s participation in disarmament negotiations, it is determined by the balance of strategic deterrence forces worldwide.

That is why, after D. Trump’s statement about the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, China, whose nuclear potential is considerably smaller than that of the US, refused to join the treaty until the two countries’ potentials became, if not equal, then at least comparable. Meanwhile, Beijing will welcome participation in the negotiations of other members of the Nuclear Five – Britain and France, as well as unofficial nuclear powers, such as India and Pakistan.

In addition, it is important to separate such issues as reduction of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, which comprise ballistic missiles, including medium and short- range. The latter, according to the Chinese doctrine, are classified as strategic weapons.

In general, the White Paper gives you a feeling that China will be ready to join the process of control of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery when the time is right and the relevant conditions are in place. This, in Beijing’s opinion, meets the interests of national security. And the time to do so may well come in the foreseeable future. 

From our partner International Affairs

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