On May 1, 2019, Japan enters a new era – Reiwa, the era of peace and harmony … with a “baggage” of problem accumulated in the previous Heisei period.By itself, a change of the name with a change of emperor has a rather symbolic meaning and, of course, it is not a specific political programme, – unlikely it will bring any peculiarities to the external and internal political agenda.
During the next years, real changes in the political and economic agendas will be related to the change of the prime minister in 2021 – if it happens or not. In March 2019, LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai hinted that the fourth term for Shinzo Abe is quite a possible option. Anyway, the age of Reiwa is unlikely to be under the sign of harmony and peace. There are some reasons why: Japan`s move in the defense field, like transformation of Japan`s Self-Defense Forces into a full-fledged army, Tokyo`s aspiration to become a more significant and independent actor in the international arena, tensions in the East-China Sea and South-China Sea, aggravation of economic problems both within the region and the country, which depend on exports and deeply included in the world chains. All these factors are unlikely to contribute to the situation, when “people’s hearts are beautifully drawn together” as follows from the “Manyoshu,” a 7th century poetry collection.
Heisei started on January 8, 1989, when the “bubble economy” began imploding, and three years later this bubble burst and economy stagnated. Next 30 years, government efforts were aimed at “reanimation” of the Japanese economy. Despite some successes, there are still a lot of problems to resolve. As Tokyo-based journalist, William Pesek wrote, from an economic standpoint there is little “order”, “peace” or “harmony” in sight.
Such domestic problems as economic recession, deflation, aging population, declining birth rates, weakening labor force will be the main challenges for the cabinet of Japan. On February 1, 2019, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare released figures indicating that there are 163 jobs for every 100 job seekers in country. Despite the increase of economic activity in the last quarter of 2018, in the first quarter of 2019 the growth was weak.
As for the foreign policy agenda, it is not calm either. Taking into consideration ongoing China’s military buildup in the South China Sea and East China Sea, it can be assumed, that Beijing is not going to give up its territorial claims, including those to Japan. Despite the hype around the meetings of Donald Trump and Kim Jong–un, the issue of the DPRK nuclear program has not been solved and is unlikely to be settled in the foreseeable future, judging by the results (or lack thereof) of the last meeting of two leaders.
Despite the countless exercises of experts and politicians in determining of the Indo-Pacific, its core, purpose and structure, it is still unclear, how the idea of the Indo-Pacific region, in which Japan claimsto play one of the leading roles, will develop, and in what form, what institutional structure it could be realized.
Moreover, what about the Quad? Would not it bring even more tension to Japan-China relations?
After the US’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Japan has assumed the role of the driver, but does it have enough resources to make the TPP project more attractive to its participants, many of whom take part in infrastructure projects under China-led Belt and Road Initiative? In contrast to the TPP, the Belt and Road has a much more real shape and well known around the world thanks to the implemented and underway projects.
Another comparison not in favor of Japan: if China has focused on one mega-project, then in 2017 Japan and India launched the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor (AAGC) as a rival of China`s Maritime Silk Rout, – the spread of resources for two giant projects, TPP and AAGC, is fraught with its waste and the lack of significant results. China has already spent $200 billion on the Belt and Road projects; the AAGC covers 18 countries, while the BRI includes 65.
Is it possible for TPP and AAGC to correlate with each other? Probably not. India has already expressed its dissatisfaction with Chinese projects in the Southeast Asia, for instance, in Pakistan and the Maldives. For Tokyo, Beijing and Delhi, to find mutually acceptable formula, some rules for infrastructure projects in the giant region is quite difficult taken differences in approaches, amount of resources and goals.
In the international dimension era-changing symbolism will become much more tangible when the new emperor ascends the throne and heads of foreign states make visits to Japan. For sure in the end of May 2019 Donald Trump may become the first head of a foreign state to receive the audience of Emperor Naruhito. However, there is nothing new – Japan will only once again confirm that the alliance with the United States is the cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Withmany unsolved issues in economic and foreign policy spheres, Japan has a great chance to show to the whole world and feel by itself beautiful harmony during the 2020 Summer Olympics. It will definitely serve Japan`s foreign policy well (especially in the public diplomacy domain), including its relations with neighbouring countries, which support is so important in realization of Japan`s international projects.
