Governments need to overhaul their approach to employment and jobs to reduce further social and economic tensions, according to a new report from the OECD. Without rapid action, many people, particularly the low skilled, will be left behind in the fast-changing world of work.
The OECD Employment Outlook 2019 is part of the OECD’s Future of Work initiative and the “I am the Future of Work” campaign, which aims to make the future of work better for all, helping to transform learning and social protection systems and reduce inequalities between people and across regions.
“The OECD Employment Outlook does not envisage a jobless future. But it does foresee major challenges for the future of work,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, launching the report in Berlin with Hubertus Heil, Germany’s Federal Minister of Labour and Social Affairs. “With the right policies, we can manage these challenges. We face significant transformation, but we have the opportunity and the determination to use this moment and build a future of work that benefits everyone.”
While the OECD area has fully recovered the jobs lost during the crisis and today the employment rate is 2 percentage points higher than before the crisis, the projected slowdown in the global economy casts a shadow over short-term job prospects, and the job market has continued to polarise. To help workers, firms, and countries adapt to the changing world of work, the OECD proposes in this Outlook a Transition Agenda for a Future that Works for All.
The employment rate improvement in most OECD countries has been driven by a substantial rise in the share of women in work and older workers staying longer in employment. Moreover, much of the increase in employment reflects the growing number of high-skilled jobs, the share of which has risen by 25% in OECD countries over the past two decades.
However, among young people with less than tertiary education in many countries, a rising share are out of work or, if in work, under-employed or low-paid. Men have seen an increase in joblessness and under-employment in some countries, although labour market outcomes for women remain worse on average.
The digital transformation, globalisation and demographic changes have already been reshaping the world of work. Looking ahead, 14% of existing jobs could disappear as a result of automation in the next 15-20 years, with another 32% set to change radically.
While full-time, permanent employment is likely to still account for many, if not most, jobs in the future, the past few years have seen a further rise in non-standard work in some countries, such as self-employment and temporary contracts. Part-time employment has risen in virtually every OECD country over the past few decades. The share of people who work part-time but would prefer to work full-time has also risen in two thirds of OECD countries for which data are available.
The Agenda recommends that countries focus on four key areas: labour protection, social protection, learning and social dialogue.
It underlines the importance of ensuring adequate labour law protection for workers, regardless of their employment status. Governments should tackle false self-employment, which employers sometimes use to avoid taxes and regulations, minimise the “grey zone” between salaried work and self-employment, and extend rights to workers left in that zone.
Adapting and extending social protection is essential to ensure better coverage for workers in non-standard forms of employment, according to the report. Non-standard workers are, in some countries, 40-50% less likely to receive any form of income support while out of work than standard employees. Benefit entitlements should be made portable across jobs and targeted social protection measures complemented with more universal and unconditional support.
In all OECD countries, training participation is lowest among those who need it most, including the low-skilled, older adults and non-standard workers. A major overhaul of adult learning programmes to increase their coverage and promote quality is needed to harness the benefits of the changing world of work. Measures should include removing time and financial constraints to participation in training, making training rights portable, and providing quality information and counselling.
Union membership has steadily declined over the last three decades in OECD countries, falling from 30% in 1985 to 16% in 2016, says the Outlook. This has weakened workers’ bargaining power and contributed to the decline in the share of national income going to workers. Membership is even lower among non-standard workers, who are 50% less likely than standard workers to be unionised. Access to collective bargaining and social dialogue should be extended beyond standard employment.
“Westlessness”: Munich Security Report 2020
Is the world becoming less Western? Is the West itself becoming less Western, too? What does it mean for the world if the West leaves the stage to others? What could a joint Western strategy for an era of great power competition look like?
The Munich Security Report 2020 sheds light on the phenomenon that it refers to as “Westlessness” – a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose of the West. A multitude of security challenges seem to have become inseparable from what some describe as the decay of the Western project. What is more, Western societies and governments appear to have lost a common understanding of what it even means to be part of the West. Although perhaps the most important strategic challenge for the transatlantic partners, it appears uncertain whether the West can come up with a joint strategy for a new era of great-power competition.
In this context, the Munich Security Report 2020 provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses across selected geographic and thematic spotlights. In addition to its role as a conversation starter for the Munich Security Conference, the report series has also become a go-to resource for security professionals and the interested public around the world. The previous report was downloaded more than 30,000 times and received widespread coverage in German and international media.
The Munich Security Report 2020 provides an overview of major security policy challenges and features insightful data and analyses across selected geographic and thematic spotlights. In addition to its role as a trusted companion and conversation starter for the Munich Security Conference, the report series has also become a go-to resource for security professionals and the interested public around the world. The previous report was downloaded tens of thousands of times and received widespread coverage in German and international media.
The Munich Security Report 2020 analyzes current security policy developments in China, Europe, Russia and the United States, and furthermore examines regional dynamics in the Mediterranean, the Middle East and South Asia. In addition, it provides insights into the issues of space and climate security, as well as into the threats arising from new technologies and increasingly transnational right-wing extremism.
The Munich Security Report features a number of exclusive and unpublished materials. For the preparation of the report, the Munich Security Conference Foundation collaborated with renowned partner institutions, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), The Brookings Institution, The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, International Crisis Group, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), McKinsey & Company, Pew Research Center, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the Zentrum für Osteuropa- und international Studien (ZOiS).
Uganda: Expanding Social Protection Programs to Boost Inclusive Growth
Uganda’s economy grew by 6.5 percent in FY18/19, maintaining the rebound in economic activity over the last two years, according to the latest edition of the Uganda Economic Update released by the World Bank today.
The fourteenth Uganda Economic Update report, “Strengthening Social Protection Investments to Reduce Vulnerability and Promote Inclusive Growth” shows that the economy was boosted by strong consumer spending, and sustained levels of public and private investment. Foreign investors have been particularly interested in the oil and gas, manufacturing and hospitality sectors.
Following the release of new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates in October 2019, the share of the services sector has fallen from 57.7 percent to 46.2 percent, while industry has risen to 29.5 percent from 20.1 percent and agriculture to 24.2 percent from 22.3 percent. There has been a strong jump in manufacturing growth supported by recent expansions in the sector, including investments in new factories.
The outlook is favourable with the economy expected to grow at 6 percent over the next year. This requires sustaining high levels of investment in energy transmission, road construction and maintenance, industrial parks, and oil production-related infrastructure and services. Such investments also need to be executed effectively. Improving domestic revenue collection and utilizing concessional lending is important to ensure continued debt levels sustainability.
Uganda’s economy faces several risks on the macro and micro level. One in five Ugandans still live in extreme poverty and more than a third live on less than $1.90 a day with 70 percent still depending primarily on agriculture for their livelihood. This exposes them to risks of weather-related and other shocks.
Furthermore, with the expected population growth over the next 10 years, it is now estimated that average annual GDP growth rates will need to exceed 8 percent for Uganda to have a chance of reaching lower middle-income status by 2030. So, policy makers need to consider innovative ways for Uganda to reach its development goals.
Evidence shows that social protection programs can provide an answer to some of these challenges. Expanding social protection could have positive impact on growth and would provide social safety nets to reduce vulnerability to shocks, build equity, and maintain high labour productivity.
“Two out of three people who get out of poverty fall back in – that is about 1.4 people in the last household survey conducted in 2016. We need to consider the importance of investing in people, building their human capital, and providing them with the tools and assets to manage shocks and reduce their vulnerability,” said Tony Thompson, Country Manager, World Bank.
Despite the potential that social protection initiatives offer, the Senior Citizens Grant (SCG) and the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF) – the two main social protection programs reach only 3 percent of the population compared to 6 percent in Kenya. The Government of Uganda spent 0.14 percent of GDP (FY17/18) on the two programs, less than Kenya and Rwanda at 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent of GDP, respectively.
The coverage and spending on these types of initiatives in Uganda is not optimal, based on regional and global comparisons. There is therefore a strong case to be made to expand these programs, and to consider how to reach different vulnerable groups. Simulations show, for example, that programs covering the poorest 50 percent of households with infants under 2, would cost an estimated 0.23 percent of GDP, whereas similar programs covering the poorest 50 percent of all households with children under 5 would cost 0.50 percent of GDP.
The Update makes several recommendations, including the need to expand direct income support investments in human capital and to help mitigate shocks and scale up existing disaster risk financing pilot programs to better prepare for climate-related shocks, such as drought, and mitigate other shocks.
Given that there are competing fiscal demands on government resources, there is need to prioritize social protection expansion. One way of doing this, as recommended in the Update, is to focus on the poor and vulnerable in the neediest geographical areas, with various options outlined in the report to guide expansion to these areas, based on levels of vulnerability and human capital.
Ireland: Prepare now for rising fiscal pressures, external risks
Ireland needs to prepare itself to meet rising pressures on public finances from an ageing population and significant external risks such as new EU-UK trade barriers post Brexit. Another important development could be future changes to the international tax rules, according to a new OECD report.
The latest OECD Economic Survey of Ireland projects Irish GDP growth at 6.2% in 2019, then at still solid rates of 3.6% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021. Yet the risks to these forecasts are significant and Ireland’s high public debt and fragilities in the banking system could exacerbate any economic shock. The coming years will also be marked by rising health and pension costs, as the population ages, and a possible end to several years of tax windfalls.
The Survey recommends taking concrete steps to improve public spending efficiency and find new sources of revenue. It is also vital to maintain Ireland’s attractiveness as an investment hub for multinationals, for example through addressing skills shortages in the workforce, lowering barriers to competition such as complex licensing procedures, and ensuring good transport infrastructure and affordable housing in Dublin. Improving skills and the use of new technologies could also help to narrow the productivity gap between Irish and foreign firms.
“Ireland’s open economy has helped it emerge stronger from the crisis, yet the country is very exposed to external factors. Fiscal prudence will be vital with health and pension costs set to rise just as the economy faces disruption from Brexit and a potential drop in corporate tax receipts,” said OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone. “This is a crucial time for Ireland and the focus for the incoming government should be to keep the economy on a solid track.”
Ireland has enjoyed windfall tax receipts as an investment hub for multinationals, but a planned overhaul of global tax rules is expected to lower related tax receipts by changing how and where corporate tax is paid. In recent years, Ireland has partly used one-off tax receipts to fund cost overruns in health and welfare. Future windfalls should go towards paying off debt or into the country’s strategic ‘rainy day’ investment fund, and cost overruns should be reined in through better budget planning.
Health spending per person is already high in Ireland. Ageing will push it higher, while reducing revenues from labour taxes. Simulations suggest that public health and pension costs could rise by 1.5% of GDP annually by 2030 and by 6.5% of GDP by 2060. Basic pension benefits have risen much faster than inflation in recent years; indexing future increases to consumer prices would produce budgetary savings.
New revenue sources could focus on property and consumption taxes, which are less distortive for economic activity than income tax. Property values should be regularly reassessed for calculating local property taxes – today’s are based on 2013 values – and VAT should be streamlined from five rates to three. Low-income households should be cushioned from any adverse impacts. Separately, efforts to increase housing supply should continue as a way to curb soaring property prices.
Ireland stands particularly exposed to Brexit risks. The United Kingdom is an important trading partner, particularly in agriculture and food, and a vital land bridge for the majority of Irish exports that are bound for Europe. Exports of machinery, equipment, chemicals and tourism to the UK have stagnated or fallen since the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership, and any re-imposition of customs and border controls would hurt flows of goods to EU destinations.
Such risks make it even more important that Ireland reap as much benefit as it can from the digital economy. Irish businesses have tended to embrace new technologies well, the special digital chapter shows, but the impact on firm-level productivity growth has been modest.
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