It appears Indian economics, too, is getting radicalised. Aside from shady efforts to isolate Pakistan under FATF, India is furious at China also. India tried to boycott import of Cheap Chinese electronic goods, particularly transistors/chips. Through aid injections, it weaned away some SAARC countries from attending scheduled conference in Pakistan. India’s developmental assistance to six neighbouring countries in South Asia over the last four fiscal years amounted to over Rs 211 billion. The countries are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
India’s politically-stringed aid
India extended developmental assistance to six neighbouring countries. The total aid to Afghanistan from 2014-15 to 2017-18 was Rs 22.32 billion, to Bangladesh it was Rs 5.14 billion, and to Bhutan it was Rs 156.8 billion. The developmental assistance to Maldives during the same period was Rs 2.7 billion, to Nepal it was Rs 13.22 billion, and to Sri Lanka it was Rs 10.8 billion. India has built a dam in Afghanistan and making 11 more there. She has committed Rs 45 billion for Bhutan’s 11th Plan – about 68 per cent of the total external assistance received. Another Rs 5 billion came in from India as part of the economic stimulus plan.
Modi visited only such countries that as could promise to isolate Pakistan. Between 2014 and 2018, over Rs 2,021 crore was spent on chartered flights, maintenance of aircraft and hotline facilities during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visits to top 10 countries from where India has received the maximum foreign-domestic investment inflows. Foreign Direct Investments grew from US$ 30,930.5 million in 2014, to US$ 43478.27 million in 2017. A total of Rs 1,583.18 crore was spent on maintenance of Modi’s aircraft and Rs 429.25 crore on chartered flights during the period between June 15, 2014 and December 3, 2018. The total expenditure on hotline was Rs 9.11 crore. Modi visited over 55 countries in 48 foreign trips since taking over as prime minister in May 2014. Over Rs 1,346 crore was incurred on chartered flights, maintenance of aircraft and hotline facilities during Manmohan Singh’s foreign visits from 2009-10 till 2013-14 during UPA-II.
The trading community also stands saffronised. The Confederation of All India Traders announced, “The time has come when China should suffer due to its proximity with Pakistan. The Confederation represents 70 million traders. It burnt Chinese goods on March 19 to “teach a lesson” to China. In a statement, the Confederation said. “It has launched a national campaign to boycott Chinese goods among the trading community of the country, calling the traders not to sell or buy Chinese goods.”
Chinese Xiaomi-Inc mobile phones and toys are ubiquitous in India. Trade between the countries grew to nearly $90 billion in the year ending March 2018.
Ashwani Mahajan, a leader of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, also, called for a boycott of Chinese goods. He also wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi recommending that India should slap higher tariffs on Beijing. The Manch is the economic wing of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a Hindu nationalist group with close ties to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. Yoga guru Baba Ramdev also called for a ban on Chinese goods in the country.
The bilateral trade will cross the US$ 100 billion mark this year. However, this figure includes a deficit of US$ 58 billion for India and it has been increasing over the years. India’s bilateral trade deficit with China plus Hong Kong is about a third of its total trade deficit with all countries put together. Trade deficit with China came down by US$10 billion in the fiscal year ended March 2019 to $58 billion (in over US$ 80 billion trade). Decrease is illusory.
China has begun to ship some of its products through Hong Kong rather than its domestic ports. The combined Indian trade deficit with China plus Hong Kong has not reduced. India’s bilateral trade deficit with China plus Hong Kong is about a third of its total trade deficit with all countries put together. That with China alone is around a quarter of the total trade deficit.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has taken a closer look at the problem of bilateral trade imbalances in its latest World Economic Outlook, based on a study of 63 countries over 20 years.
First, while basic macroeconomic accounting tells us that China runs a huge trade surplus because it saves more than it invests, it has also been strongly interventionist in the way it has managed its exchange rate. Its sustained currency manipulation is reflected in its $3 trillion foreign exchange reserves. Besides, China uses subsidies to promote its domestic industry, giving it an unfair advantage in many areas. India fears bilateral trade deficit has become part of a larger geostrategic dilemma.
This is especially true of specific items such as consumer electronics, telecom equipment and power equipment. India ignores its uncompetitive goods in global market.
Aside from gung-ho, India’s trade ministry said in an email the country can’t take any unilateral punitive action against a fellow member of the World Trade Organisation. India could not boycott import of China-made transistors that accounted for 81.9 percent of India’s transistor imports in 2017. The transistors are an input to almost all Indian electronic goods and machinery. India cannot afford to switch to home-made expensive alternative. These imports also contain embodied technologies, particularly semiconductors, fertilizer and pharmaceutical.
Despite political differences, the world is cooperating on economic issues. It is India’s own interest not to subordinate economics to political expediency.
Retaliatory tariffs are unlikely to `soften’ China. Indian consumers may still not buy Indian goods. They may prefer to goods from countries other than China. Besides, China may route its products through other countries like Hong Kong. The solution lies in making Indian goods cost-effective substitutes against Chinese goods.
Rising wages in China are making Chinese goods more expensive. But, it is Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia and the Philippines, not India, that are taking advantage of it. India needs to
Create niched in global markets and supply chains. Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd will begin mass-producing Apple iPhones at its factory outside Chennai this year. The Taiwanese company also makes phones for Xiaomi and Nokia in India. Such industrial projects should serve conveyor belts for India’s entry into international markets.
Trump’s wavering support
Both Trump and Modi hoped to isolate thorny trade issues from their geopolitical ties as both countries positioned themselves in Asia against an increasingly assertive China. The USA has conjured up an anti-China strategic alliance — which includes the so-called Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, India, Japan and Australia. Even assuming it to be intact, it appears India and the USA appears to be headed for a bout of turbulence.
The Trump administration notified Congress (March 6, 2019) that it wants to scrap trade concessions for India, the largest beneficiary of the so-called generalised system of preferences that impacts $5.7 billion worth of goods. The move is symbolic. It affects just a fraction of India’s trade flows. But it is significant as it is in sync with India’s ennui towards China in view of her `hold’ on declaring a Pakistani religious leader `terrorist’.
The USA is finding it hard to maintain trade restrictions, for instance on Turkey, while treating India as a protégé. The USA cannot keep up unequal trade practices for long. US pulled out of Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that would have more closely tied Asian economies to Washington, despite pleas from regional allies such as Japan. Trump can’t remain unruffled by Indian customs duty hikes, expanded import substitution rules and domestic price caps.
Oil- import waiver
Washington policy makers are uneasy with India, with a history of non-alignment. Around May 2019, Washington may withdraw waiver to India on oil imports from Iran, and press for increased oil, natural gas and coal imports from the US. India says it is prepared to meet scrapping of preferential US trade concessions. Oil crunch would pinch, but India does not like to be seen buckling to American pressure.
India’s anachronistic saffronomics detrimental to her economic future
China’s role under World Trade Organisation and in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) would force India to shun its spurious repugnance to BRI. In 1990, BRIC countries accounted for 11% of global gross domestic product (GDP), by 2014 nearly 30%. These countries are not a political alliance, like the European Union or a formal trading association. Yet they have power as an economic bloc.
By 2050 (with China as a sole hegemon), these economies, including India, would be wealthier than most of the current major economic powers. Columbia University established the BRICLab, where students examine foreign, domestic, and financial policies of BRIC members. China and India are destined to become the world’s dominant suppliers of manufactured goods and services by 2050.
Brazil and Russia will become dominant suppliers of raw materials. BRIC expanded to include South Africa as the fifth nation in 2010.
RCEP, being negotiated between India, China, the 10-member ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, may result in the largest free trade bloc in the world covering about 3.5 billion people and 30 per cent of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. Apart from producer goods, the areas being negotiated include services, investments, intellectual property and government procurement.
China wants India to give concessions it has given the ASEAN countries. India has refused to do so as it is eliminating duties on more than 80 per cent items with ASEAN under a free-trade agreement. India ostensibly wants to protect domestic industry against competition from cheap Chinese goods.
India should not let narrow political interests smother broader economic interests. It should welcome Chinese investment in energy security, and infrastructure, such as roads and railways, industrial parks and in the food processing sector. To attract Chinese tourists, India should expand its hospitality sector please Chinese palate. In 2018, the total number of travellers from China to India and vice versa added up to just one million. India could attract more Chinese visitors by alluring them with promise of an unparalleled mélange of heritage, adventure, wellness, medical and spiritual well-being.
Results of the Afreximbank Annual Meetings 2019
The Afreximbank Annual Meetings 2019 and the associated Russia–Africa Economic Conference have come to a close. The events ran from 18 to 22 June in Moscow and became an important international discussion platform in the lead up to the Russia–Africa Summit and Economic Forum (23–24 October, Sochi). The events were organized by the Roscongress Foundation, African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), and the Russian Export Center.
The Afreximbank Annual Meetings and Russia–Africa Economic Conference were attended by over 1,500 delegates from 81 countries, including: Russia, Algeria, Angola, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bulgaria, Botswana, Brazil, Burkina Faso, Burundi, the United Kingdom, the (British) Virgin Islands, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Germany, Djibouti, Egypt, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Israel, India, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cameroon, Canada, Qatar, Kenya, Cyprus, China, Congo-Brazzaville, Congo-Kinshasa, Côte d’Ivoire, Lesotho, Liberia, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Mauritius, Mauritania, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Morocco and Mozambique.
The rest were Namibia, Nigeria, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Seychelles, Senegal, Singapore, Somalia, Sudan, the United States of America, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, Finland, France, Chad, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Sweden, Equatorial Guinea, eSwatini, Estonia, Ethiopia, the Republic of South Africa, South Sudan, and Japan Over 290 Russian and international journalists from 25 countries registered to take part in the Russia–Africa Economic Conference.
Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev spoke at the Opening Ceremony of the 26th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of Afreximbank. He noted that Russian and African relations have a solid historical foundation, which they can use to their advantage as they move forward and find solutions to today’s challenges.
“Another objective reason for our rapprochement is the similar tasks facing our economies. Russia and all African countries have tremendous natural resources. According to some estimates, they account for 50 percent of the planet’s resource potential. We must use these resources effectively and simultaneously expand cooperation in this and other fields,” added the Prime Minister. Dmitry Medvedev met with President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export-Import Bank Benedict Okey Oramah on the side-lines of the Afreximbank Annual Meetings.
The business programme events were attended by representatives of executive government bodies. On the Russian side, they included Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov. African representatives included: Chief Minister of the Republic of Sierra Leone David Francis, Permanent Secretary of the Political and Economic Affairs Office of the Federal Republic of Nigeria Gabriel Tanimu Aduda, and Minister of Trade and Industry of the Republic of Rwanda Soraya Hakuziyaremye.
The panel sessions featured the participation of the heads of high-profile international and foreign organizations: Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Vera Songwe, African Union Commissioner for Trade and Industry Albert M. Muchanga, Member of the Board and Minister in Charge of Trade at the Eurasian Economic Commission Veronika Nikishina, Chief Executive Officer of the International Islamic trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) Hani Salem Sonbol, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt Gamal Mohamed Abdel-Aziz Negm, and African Union Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy Amani Abou-Zeid.
A total of over 20 business events were held as part of the Afreximbank Annual Meetings and the Russia–Africa Economic Conference. Participants discussed the building of partnerships between African SMEs in the Russian market, trade between emerging markets and Africa’s integration into the global economy, the financing of trade under difficult global financial conditions, digital solutions and cybersecurity for state and municipal operations, food security, healthcare, and education.
Stressing the importance of the further development of multilateral cooperation, Advisor to the President of the Russian Federation, Executive Secretary of the Organizing Committee for the Russia–Africa Summit in the Russian Federation in 2019 and other Russia–Africa events Anton Kobyakov said, “Under current conditions, multilateral cooperation with rapidly growing African economies is of primary importance in Russia–Africa relations. At the fore is demand for scientific and technological progress, comprehensive integration, and application of Russian innovative developments in sectors of the African economy such as agriculture, green energy, healthcare, and municipal management. Proof thereof is the heightened interest of experts, businessmen, and heads of African government agencies, who have come to Moscow for the Afreximbank Annual Meetings.”
During his speech, Chief Executive Officer of the Russian Export Center Andrey Slepnev expressed his confidence that Russia has met all of the conditions to strengthen its position in the region through investment in existing and developing economic chains, which would allow the country to secure a longer-term presence in Africa.
“We have every reason to talk about the sustainable growth of Russian exports to Africa. Since 2015, we’ve seen a 23% annual increase in exports on average. Africa currently has enormous potential as a sales market. Today’s economic modernization is paving the way for serious infrastructure changes, which means that the need for high quality, competitive products is growing. Consequently, African countries are our strategic trade partners. Our research has shown, that Russian products in a number of industries are fairly competitive in Africa. It’s vital that Russian businesses have the necessary skills to successfully enter this fast-growing market, and the REC is creating all of the conditions to make that possible,” said Slepnev.
Key events on the side-lines of the Afreximbank Annual Meetings included: the Meeting of the Board of Directors of Afreximbank, the launch of the Afreximbank Strategy for Export Trading Companies, the launch of the 2019 African Trade Report, and the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders of Afreximbank.
A number of documents were signed during the economic conference, including:
• A Memorandum of Understanding between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and Sinara-Transport Machines JSC (STM);
• A Memorandum of Understanding between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Transmash Holding JSC, and Russian Export Center JSC;
• A Memorandum of Understanding between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Avelar Solar Technology LLC, and Russian Export Center JSC;
• A Memorandum of Understanding between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Chelyabinsk Pipe Plant PJSC, and Russian Export Center JSC;
• A Memorandum of Understanding between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), Kolon World Investment, and Opaia SA;
• A Cooperation Agreement between the Roscongress Foundation, the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), and Russian Export Center JSC.
In addition to a packed business programme, the organizers of the Afreximbank Annual Meetings and the Russia–Africa Economic Conference arranged a rich tour and cultural programme for guests and delegates.
Armenia’s historic vision for responsible mining
Armenia, named country of the year by the Economist Magazine in 2018, has led a peaceful transition of power, introducing significant reforms in an inclusive and democratic manner. Nikol Pashinyan, MP and opposition leader, was elected Prime Minister on May 8, 2018. The new administration has identified anti-corruption efforts, free and fair parliamentary elections, and greater equity as its priorities.
Armenia’s economy is gaining strength, growing at over 5.2% in 2018. The growth has been supported by global recovery and a strong rebound in domestic demand. However, the country remains plagued by the twin evils of high unemployment and poverty. The fruits of growth are not shared across the nation.
A country rich in natural resources, particularly copper, molybdenum, gold and dimension stones, Armenia has 27 metal mines. These mines employ 9,000 people in rural areas, while metals and gems represent over 60% of total exports. Indeed, copper ore alone accounts for over a third of all exports. While Armenia has the accurate regulatory and legal framework in place to support the sector in a way that benefits its citizens, enforcement is far from ideal.
Against this backdrop and recognizing that extractive industries can drive economic growth and poverty reduction, the Prime Minister at the time, Hovik Abrahamyan, announced on July 28, 2015 the government’s commitment to make Armenia become compliant with the globally recognized transparency standard in the extractives sector, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). The government met with both the mining industry and civil society, inviting them to participate in the process by presenting nominees for a Multi-Stakeholder Group. Such a group had never been created before to agree a joint approach to the mining sector.
With issues of trust from civil society and apprehensions from industry, it appeared that the EITI process might fail to engage all parties. Following a stalemate of many months, the World Bank, funded by the Extractives Global Programmatic Support (EGPS) Multi-Donor Trust Fund, organized a workshop which brought together government, industry and non-governmental organizations for the first time. Stakeholders agreed to create a multi-stakeholder group to implement the EITI standard, with equal voting power for each party. Armenia’s first EITI report was approved and published in January 2019, covering 2016-2017 fiscal years.
The multi-stakeholder group chose to go beyond the remit of transparency and sought to develop a common vision for responsible mining that would shape the future of every mine across the country. With the help of the EGPS Multi-Donor Trust Fund, government, industry and civil society groups are now working together to develop a Mineral Sector Policy, a policy framework to guide mining operations. The policy will outline the country’s vision for the mining sector and articulate what responsible and sustainable mining looks like.
The Policy will be based upon the results of two ongoing assessments of the sector: an economic assessment and an environmental and health analysis. The economic assessment will assess the mining sector’s contribution to local, regional and national development, and the potential to develop stronger economic linkages along the supply chain. The environmental and health analysis will assess the health and safety of communities and workers, and examine the existing standards, capacity and institutions to effectively address these issues through a Mineral Sector Policy.
Alongside these assessments are ongoing consultations across government representatives, mining companies, civil society organizations and affected communities, which will be used to inform the creation of the Mineral Sector Policy.
The assessments and consultations will help to build a shared and inclusive vision of Armenia’s future mining sector.
Armenia is one of the few EITI countries to have a fully electronic reporting system up and running, receiving reports from government and companies. Given paper-based reporting has prevailed to date, this marks a significant step forward, minimizing technical errors in reports, decreasing required time for collection of reports and their reconciliation and creating a unique system of searching and downloading open data for users by applying appropriate filters.
The impact of US-China Trade war
It is highly unlikely, that any tangible solution to the Trade war between Beijing and Washington will emerge in the short run. In May 2019, Trump increased the tariffs on commodities worth 200 Billion USD, from 10% to a whopping 25%. So far, US has imposed tariffs of about 250 Billion USD on China. While China, has retaliated with tariffs on US goods estimated at well over 100 Billion USD (110 Billion.)
It would be pertinent to point out, that trade disputes have not been restricted only to Washington and Beijing. Imposition of tariffs has been a bone of contention with US allies including Japan.
Off late, trade issues have resulted in major differences between New Delhi and Washington. Even though there are convergences between both countries on numerous strategic issues, resolving the differences between both sides on trade related matters is likely to be an onerous responsibility.
In response to tariffs imposed by Washington, New Delhi retaliated, and has imposed tariffs, estimated at 200 Million USD, on 29 commodities (including Apples, Almonds and Chickpeas). India’s decision was a response to US’ decision to impose tariffs, of 10% and 25% on Aluminium and Steel in May 2018. Last year, New Delhi refrained from imposing tariffs, but did raise import taxes on a number of US goods to 120%, after Washington declined to exempt New Delhi from higher steel and aluminium tariffs. The key propelling factor for India’s recent imposition of tariffs was the US decision to scrap the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India from June 5, 2019. India benefitted immensely from this scheme, as it allowed duty-free exports of upto $5.6 billion from the country.
Pressure on Trump
Even though no solution is in sight, there are a number of lobbies in the US, especially Trade groups and US businesses which have been repeatedly urging the Trump Administration to find a solution to the current impasse with China.
Only recently for instance, 600 companies, including Walmart in a letter to the U.S. President Donald Trump urged him to resolve trade disputes with China, stating that tariffs were detrimental to the interests of American businesses and consumers. The letter was sent as part of the ‘Tarriffs Hurt the Heartland’ campaign.
To underscore the detrimental impact of trade wars on the American economy some important estimates were provided. The letter stated that tariffs of upto 25% on 300 billion USD worth of goods, could lead to the loss of 2 million jobs. Costs for an average American family of 4 would also rise to an estimated 2000 USD, if such tariffs were to be imposed.
Reports indicating the challenges to the US economy and FDI from Chinese companies in US
A number of surveys and reports illustrate the profound challenges which the US economy is facing as well as a drop in FDI from China.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also revealed a drop in consumer sentiment from 100 in May to 97.9 in June. This was attributed to trade wars between China and the US.
According to a survey released by the China General Chamber of Commerce USA, investment by Chinese companies in the United States has witnessed a significant decline since 2016 ( including a sharp drop in 2018 and early 2019)
A number of important events have been held recently, where efforts were made to draw more Chinese investments to the US. One such event was the Select USA Summit. Speaking at the Summit, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated:
‘We welcome investment from any place as long as it’s investment that poses no challenges for national security,”
US states and FDI
What was clearly visible at the Select USA Summit was the fact, that a number of US states pitched for expanding economic ties with China, and drawing greater Foreign Direct Investment.
The state of North Carolina sought to attract investments in areas like IT, Aviation and biotech. The US headquarters of Lenovo are in the state of Carolina. Trump’s trade wars have hit the state in a big way, and one of the sufferers have been Soy bean farmers. As a result of a 25 percent imposition of tariffs the price of a bushel of Soy bean has dropped to 8 USD, from 10 USD in 2018.
Other US states brought to the fore the impact of tariffs on their respective economies. According to a senior official from the state of Louisiana for instance, Don Pierson, secretary of Louisiana Economic Development the state it has suffered immensely as a consequence of the imposition of tariffs. Agricultural commodities from Middle America to China are imported through export terminals in Louisiana. Pierson said that the agricultural economy of the state, as well as the logistics economy of the state have taken a hard hit as a consequence of the trade wars. Pierson also spoke about the possibility of exporting LNG from Louisiana to China. Major investments in the state of Louisiana include Yuhuang Chemical Group (Shandong’s) decided to invest US$1.85 billion in a methanol production complex (this was one of the largest Chinese direct investments in US). Wanhua Chemical Group invested over 1 Billion (1.2) USD in a chemical manufacturing complex in South Eastern Louisiana
A number of Chinese companies have also begun to realise, that there is need to adopt a nuanced approach too are still tapping certain US states for investment.
Another important event was the Select LA Summit. The Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and Lenny Mendonca, chief economic adviser to the California governor assured overseas investors of all possible support from the town of LA, as well as the state of California.
Impact of trade disputes and Washington’s stance vis-à-vis Huawei
US States and Chinese Provinces have been at the forefront of improving economic ties between both countries. Both are likely to suffer as a consequence of not just the trade war between both countries, but also the US ban on Huawei. The tech company, according to a report published in 2016, contributes 7% of the GDP of the town of Shenzhen (Guangdong Province). Affiliates of Huawei provide employment to an estimated 80,000 people while a research facility in a nearby city of Dongguan, provides employment to well over 3,000
In conclusion, it is important for all stakeholders, not just businesses from both countries, to play their role in resolving economic and technological disputes between China and the US. It is also important for Chinese Provinces as well as US states to play a pro-active role in reducing tensions. Both governments while realising the importance of federating units have set up official dialogues and set up other mechanisms for sub-national exchanges. It is important that these platforms now contribute towards reducing the divergences between both countries. While all eyes are on the political leadership of both countries, it is important to realise that the stakeholders in the US-China relationship are not restricted to Beijing and Washington DC.
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